This article may require cleanup to meet Wikipedia's quality standards. The specific problem is: Multiple reference and note conflicts. (October 2024) |
This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election. The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
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Leading presidential candidate by state or district, based on opinion polls. This map only represents polling data. It is not a prediction for the election. | |||||||||||||||||||
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According to NPR's analysis, the states considered to be not strongly leaning in either direction are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.[1]
Limitations
editPoll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on last vote. This can introduce new errors if voters misstate their previous votes. When used for the 2024 presidential election it had produced results closer to the 2020 presidential election than the 2022 mid-term election.[2]
Forecasts
editElections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters are omitted for brevity.
| State | EVs | PVI[3] | 2020 result |
2020 margin[4] |
IE August 29, 2024[5] |
Cook August 27, 2024[6] |
CNalysis October 16, 2024[7] |
Sabato September 25, 2024[8] |
CNN October 3, 2024[9] |
RCP September 27, 2024[10] |
DDHQ October 9, 2024[11] |
538 October 14, 2024[12] |
Economist October 11, 2024[13] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 3 | R+8 | 52.8% R | 10.06% | Solid R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Arizona | 11 | R+2 | 49.4% D | 0.31% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Colorado | 10 | D+4 | 55.4% D | 13.50% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Florida | 30 | R+3 | 51.2% R | 3.36% | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Georgia | 16 | R+3 | 49.5% D | 0.24% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Illinois | 19 | D+7 | 57.5% D | 16.99% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D |
| Iowa | 6 | R+6 | 53.1% R | 8.20% | Likely R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Kansas | 6 | R+10 | 56.4% R | 14.63% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
| Maine[a] | 2 | D+2 | 53.1% D | 9.07% | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| ME–01[a] | 1 | D+9 | 60.1% D | 23.09% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D |
| ME–02[a] | 1 | R+6 | 52.3% R | 7.44% | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Michigan | 15 | R+1 | 50.6% D | 2.78% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Minnesota | 10 | D+1 | 52.4% D | 7.11% | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Missouri | 10 | R+10 | 56.8% R | 15.39% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Montana | 4 | R+11 | 56.9% R | 16.37% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R |
| NE–02[a] | 1 | EVEN | 52.0% D[b] | 6.50% | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Nevada | 6 | R+1 | 50.1% D | 2.39% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | 4 | D+1 | 52.7% D | 7.35% | Lean D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D |
| New Jersey | 14 | D+6 | 57.3% D | 15.94% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D |
| New Mexico | 5 | D+3 | 54.3% D | 10.79% | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| North Carolina | 16 | R+3 | 49.9% R | 1.35% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Ohio | 17 | R+6 | 53.3% R | 8.03% | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Oregon | 8 | D+6 | 56.4% D | 16.08% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | R+2 | 50.0% D | 1.16% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| South Carolina | 9 | R+8 | 55.1% R | 11.68% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas | 40 | R+5 | 52.1% R | 5.58% | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Virginia | 13 | D+3 | 54.1% D | 10.11% | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Wisconsin | 10 | R+2 | 49.5% D | 0.63% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Overall | D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 215 R – 219 104 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups | ||||
Alabama
editAlaska
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[14] | October 8–9, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[15][A] | August 30 – September 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 43% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[14] | October 8–9, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 43% | 7% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[16] | September 27–29, 2024 | 1,182 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 43% | 6% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[17] | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 5% | 6% |
Arizona
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [d] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClear Politics | September 19 – October 13, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.3% | 48.4% | 4.3% | Trump +1.1% |
| 270ToWin | October 7 – 14, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 47.1% | 48.9% | 4.0% | Trump +1.8% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 10, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 47.8% | 49.0% | 3.2% | Trump +1.1% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 10, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.4% | 48.8% | 3.8% | Trump +1.4% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 10, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 47.3% | 48.9% | 3.8% | Trump +1.6% |
| 538 | through October 13, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 46.8% | 48.3% | 4.9% | Trump +1.5% |
| Average | 47.3% | 48.7% | 4.0% | Trump +1.4% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R)[18] | October 10–13, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 48% | 6%[e] |
| New York Times/Siena College[19] | October 7–10, 2024 | 808 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| 808 (LV) | 46% | 51% | 3% | |||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[20][B] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Emerson College[21] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4%[f] |
| 48%[g] | 51% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| ActiVote[23] | September 6 – October 8, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[24][C] | October 5–7, 2024 | 735 (LV) | – | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| RMG Research[25][D] | September 30 – October 2, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 50% | 4%[h] |
| 46% | 50% | 4% | ||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[26][E] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[27][F] | September 24 – October 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 50% | 2%[i] |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[28] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 1%[i] |
| HighGround[29][G] | September 26–29, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| National Research[30][H] | September 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Emerson College[32][J] | September 27–28, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 50% | 3%[f] |
| 48%[g] | 52% | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 977 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| 926 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| Fox News[36] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| 764 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 51% | 1% | ||
| Marist College[37] | September 19−24, 2024 | 1,416 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 50% | 2%[j] |
| 1,264 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 50% | 1%[j] | ||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[38][K] | September 19–22, 2024 | 1,030 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4%[k] |
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | September 17–21, 2024 | 713 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| 713 (LV) | 45% | 50% | 5% | |||
| Emerson College[40] | September 15–18, 2024 | 868 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 49% | 3%[l] |
| 49%[g] | 50% | 1%[l] | ||||
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 862 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[42] | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 7%[e] |
| Data Orbital[43][L] | September 7–9, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 901 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| TIPP Insights[44][M] | September 3–5, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| 949 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| Patriot Polling[45] | September 1–3, 2024 | 804 (RV) | – | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[46] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Emerson College[47] | August 25–28, 2024 | 720 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 50% | 7% |
| 48%[g] | 51% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 776 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% | ||
| Fox News[49] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[50][N] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[51][O] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,187 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[52] | August 12–16, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Focaldata[53] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 51% | – |
| Strategies 360[54] | August 7–14, 2024 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College[55] | August 8–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 7% |
| 677 (LV) | 50% | 45% | 5% | |||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[56] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Navigator Research (D)[57] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[58] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| HighGround[59] | July 30 – August 5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 42% | 14%[m] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[60][P] | July 29–30, 2024 | 618 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[61][Q] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[62] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Emerson College[63] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| 47%[g] | 53% | – | ||||
| Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[64] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[65][P] | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 44% | 52% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[66] | May 7–13, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Emerson College[67] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
| New York Times/Siena College[68] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| 603 (LV) | 43% | 48% | 9% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [n] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through October 10, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | 46.4% | 48.8% | 1.0% | — | 0.8% | 3.0% | Trump +2.4% |
| RealClearPolling | September 19 – October 10, 2024 | October 10, 2024 | 47.0% | 48.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% | Trump +1.0% |
| 270toWin | October 2 – 12, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 47.4% | 47.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 3.5% | Trump +0.2% |
| Average | 46.9% | 48.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.2% | Trump +1.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[69] | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,141 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[19] | October 7–10, 2024 | 808 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | – | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| 808 (LV) | 45% | 50% | – | 1% | 0% | 4% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[70] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 555 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[27][R] | September 24 – October 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | – | 0% | – | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 50% | 47% | – | 1% | – | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 977 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 926 (LV) | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% | |||
| Fox News[36] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 2% | − |
| 764 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 50% | 0% | 1% | 2% | − | ||
| Suffolk University/USA Today[71] | September 19−24, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | September 17–21, 2024 | 713 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 47% | – | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| 713 (LV) | 43% | 48% | – | 2% | 2% | 5% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[72] | September 16–19, 2024 | 789 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[73] | September 6–9, 2024 | 765 (LV) | – | 46% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| TIPP Insights[44][M] | September 3–5, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 46% | 1% | 1% | – | 6% |
| 949 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | |||
| YouGov[74][S] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 47% | 1% | 1% | – | 6%[k] |
| CNN/SSRS[75] | August 23–29, 2024 | 682 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 44% | 49% | – | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[76] | August 25–28, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 776 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Fox News[49] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Arkansas
editCalifornia
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[77][T] | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 59% | 35% | 6%[l] |
| 61%[g] | 37% | 2%[l] | ||||
| ActiVote[78] | September 22 – October 10, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63.5% | 36.5% | – |
| ActiVote[79] | August 22 – September 21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 64% | 36% | – |
| Emerson College[80] | September 3–5, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 60% | 36% | 4% |
| 61%[g] | 38% | 1%[o] | ||||
| ActiVote[81] | August 2–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 65% | 35% | – |
| UC Berkeley IGS[82] | July 31 – August 11, 2024 | 3,765 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 59% | 34% | 7% |
| Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[83][U] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
Colorado
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 512 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| Keating Research[84] | September 11–14, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
Connecticut
editDelaware
editDistrict of Columbia
editFlorida
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [p] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 538 | Through October 5, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 45.3% | 50.3% | 4.4% | Trump +5.0% |
| 270ToWin | Through October 3, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 45.2% | 49.8% | 5.0% | Trump +4.6% |
| RacetotheWH | Through October 4, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 44.9% | 51.5% | 3.6% | Trump +6.6% |
| Silver Bulletin | Through October 5, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 45.0% | 50.5% | 4.5% | Trump +5.5% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | Through September 28, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 45.8% | 50.5% | 3.7% | Trump +4.7% |
| Average | 45.2% | 50.5% | 4.3% | Trump +5.3% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Terrance Group (R)[85][V] | October 5–8, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Marist College[86] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,410 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 47% | 2%[j] |
| 1,257 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 47% | 2%[j] | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[87] | September 29 – October 6, 2024 | 622 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 55% | 41% | 4% |
| ActiVote[88] | September 17 – October 6, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – |
| Mason-Dixon[89][W] | October 1–4, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8%[q] |
| RMG Research[90][D] | September 25–27, 2024 | 774 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3%[r] |
| 50%[g] | 48% | 2% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[91][X] | September 25–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Victory Insights[92] | September 22–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| The Bullfinch Group[93][Y] | September 20–23, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 2,948 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 3,182 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Emerson College[94] | September 3–5, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| 51%[g] | 48% | 1%[s] | ||||
| ActiVote[95] | August 16–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – |
| Cherry Communications (R)[96][Z] | August 15–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[97][X] | August 21–22, 2024 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
| ActiVote[98] | August 5–15, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[99] | August 10–11, 2024 | 1,055 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5%[t] |
| 1,040 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | 3%[u] | ||
| University of North Florida[100] | July 24–27, 2024 | 774 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 42% | 9%[v] |
| Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[101][AA] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12%[w] |
| Suffolk University/USA Today[102] | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Victory Insights[103] | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[104] | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,009 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[87] | September 29 – October 6, 2024 | 622 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 53% | 40% | – | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[105] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 2,946 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[91][X] | September 25–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | 0% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[106] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,602 (LV) | – | 50% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[107] | September 6–9, 2024 | 1,465 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Georgia
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [x] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClear Politics | September 20 – October 8, 2024 | October 10, 2024 | 47.8% | 48.3% | 3.9% | Trump +0.5% |
| 270ToWin | October 9 – 14, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 47.3% | 47.8% | 4.9% | Trump +0.5% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 10, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 48.0% | 48.4% | 3.6% | Trump +0.4% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 10, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.1% | 48.2% | 4.7% | Trump +1.1% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 10, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 47.7% | 48.6% | 3.7% | Trump +0.9% |
| 538 | through October 10, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 47.2% | 48.3% | 4.5% | Trump +1.0% |
| Average | 47.5% | 48.3% | 4.2% | Trump +0.8% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[108] | October 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 49% | 4%[k] |
| Quinnipiac University[109] | October 10–14, 2024 | 1,328 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 52% | 2% |
| RMG Research[110][D] | October 7–10, 2024 | 731 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 49% | 4%[y] |
| 47% | 50% | 3% | ||||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[111][B] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[112] | October 7–8, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 46% | 9%[z] |
| Emerson College[113] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| 50%[g] | 50% | – | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[114][E] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[115] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 4%[i] |
| Quinnipiac University[116] | September 25–29, 2024 | 942 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 989 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| 913 (LV) | 49% | 49% | 2% | |||
| Fox News[36] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| 707 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 48% | 1% | ||
| CBS News/YouGov[117] | September 20–24, 2024 | 1,441 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 51% | – |
| Marist College[118] | September 19−24, 2024 | 1,420 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 48% | 3%[j] |
| 1,220 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 50% | 1%[j] | ||
| The Bullfinch Group[119][Y] | September 20–23, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[120][K] | September 19–22, 2024 | 1,152 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| 47%[g] | 51% | 2% | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | September 17–21, 2024 | 682 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| 682 (LV) | 45% | 49% | 6% | |||
| TIPP Insights[121][M] | September 16–18, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| 835 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 9% | |||
| Emerson College[122] | September 15–18, 2024 | 975 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 50% | 3%[l] |
| 48%[g] | 50% | 2%[l] | ||||
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,347 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[123] | September 11–13, 2024 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| ActiVote[124] | August 8 – September 10, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Quinnipiac University[125] | September 4–8, 2024 | 969 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,405 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[126] | September 5–6, 2024 | 647 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 47% | 9%[aa] |
| 567 (LV) | 45% | 47% | 8%[ab] | |||
| Patriot Polling[127] | September 1–3, 2024 | 814 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[128] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 4%[ab] |
| Emerson College[129] | August 25–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 48% | 3%[f] |
| 50%[g] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 737 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% | ||
| Fox News[49] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[50][N] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Focaldata[130] | August 6–16, 2024 | 651 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 52% | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[131] | August 9–14, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 51% | 5% |
| 661 (LV) | 46% | 50% | 4% | |||
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[58] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 405 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[132][AB] | July 24–31, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)/InsiderAdvantage (R)[133] | July 29–30, 2024 | – (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[134][P] | July 29–30, 2024 | 662 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[135] | July 24–28, 2024 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 5% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[136][AC] | July 25–26, 2024 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Emerson College[137] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 49%[g] | 51% | – | ||||
| Landmark Communications[138] | July 22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs[139][AD] | July 9–18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 51% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[140][AE] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 37% | 47% | 16% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[141] | July 12–15, 2024 | 640 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| 549 (LV) | 43% | 49% | 8% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[142] | May 7–13, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Emerson College[143] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College[144] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 629 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| 629 (LV) | 44% | 47% | 9% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [n] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[145] | through October 9, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | 46.9% | 47.9% | 0.6% | — | 1.0% | 3.6% | Trump +1.1% |
| RealClearPolling | September 19 – October 8, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 47.1% | 47.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 3.2% | Trump +0.6% |
| 270ToWin[146] | October 1 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 46.0% | 47.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 4.8% | Trump +1.6% |
| Average | 46.7% | 47.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 3.7% | Trump +1.0% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[147] | October 12–14, 2024 | 637 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[109] | October 10–14, 2024 | 1,328 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 52% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[148] | October 8–9, 2024 | 608 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[149] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 3,783 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University[116] | September 25–29, 2024 | 942 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 4%[ac] |
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 0% | – | 0% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 0% | – | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 989 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| 913 (LV) | 48% | 48% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% | |||
| Fox News[36] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 707 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1% | − | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | September 17–21, 2024 | 682 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 46% | – | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| 682 (LV) | 44% | 47% | – | 1% | 2% | 6% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[150] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,043 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| TIPP Insights[121][M] | September 16–18, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 44% | 2% | 1% | – | 7% |
| 835 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | |||
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs[151][AD] | September 9–15, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 7%[ad] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[152] | September 6–9, 2024 | 562 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[125] | September 4–8, 2024 | 969 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 6%[ac] |
| YouGov[153][S] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 47% | 0% | 0% | – | 8%[i] |
| CNN/SSRS[154] | August 23–29, 2024 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155] | August 25–28, 2024 | 699 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | – | 1% | 0% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 737 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 1% | 4% | 2% | ||
| Fox News[49] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
Hawaii
editIdaho
editIllinois
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[156] | September 3– October 5, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 59% | 41% | – |
| ActiVote[157] | August 6–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
Indiana
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[ae] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[158] | August 28 – September 30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 43% | – |
| ARW Strategies[159][AF] | September 23–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 55% | 39% | 6% |
| Emerson College[160] | September 12–13, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 40% | 3%[f] |
| 58%[g] | 41% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Lake Research Partners (D)[161][AG] | August 26 – September 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
Iowa
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[162][AH] | September 27–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 45% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co.[163][AI] | September 8–11, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 3%[af] |
Kansas
editKentucky
editLouisiana
editMaine
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[164] | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 58% | 41% | 1% |
| University of New Hampshire[165] | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research[166] | September 5–15, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Maine's 1st congressional district
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research[166] | September 5–15, 2024 | 414 (LV) | – | 58% | 32% | 10% |
| University of New Hampshire[164] | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 64% | 36% | – |
Maine's 2nd congressional district
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research[166] | September 5–15, 2024 | 398 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire[164] | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 47% | 52% | 1% |
Maryland
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[ae] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | September 8 – October 14, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – |
| Braun Research[AJ] | September 19–23, 2024 | 1,012 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 64% | 32% | 5%[ag] |
| 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 62% | 32% | 6%[ah] | ||
| Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 61% | 33% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 16–17, 2024 | 543 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 64% | 33% | 3% |
| Emerson College | September 12–13, 2024 | 890 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 65% | 33% | 2% |
| 63% | 32% | 5% | ||||
| Morning Consult | August 30–September 8, 2024 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 34% | 4% |
| Gonzales Research | August 24–30, 2024 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 35% | 10% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[AB] | August 14–20, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 64% | 32% | 4% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[ae] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland, Baltimore County | September 23–28, 2024 | 862 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 57% | 35% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 5%[ai] |
| Braun Research[AJ] | September 19–23, 2024 | 1,012 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 63% | 31% | – | 1% | 1% | 5%[aj] |
| 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 61% | 31% | – | 1% | 1% | 6%[ak] | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[AB] | August 14–20, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 59% | 29% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Massachusetts
editMichigan
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [al] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 7 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.3% | 47.8% | 4.9% | Trump +0.5% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 14, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 48.9% | 47.3% | 3.8% | Harris +1.6% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 13, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 48.1% | 48.8% | 3.1% | Trump +0.7% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 14, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 48.4% | 47.8% | 3.8% | Harris +0.6% |
| 538 | through October 9, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 47.6% | 46.9% | 5.5% | Harris +0.7% |
| Average | 48.1% | 47.8% | 4.1% | Harris +0.3% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoCal Strategies (R)[167][C] | October 10–13, 2024 | 692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[168] | October 8–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | 6%[k] |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[169][B] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[170][AB] | October 2–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[i] |
| ActiVote[171] | September 15 – October 9, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Emerson College[172] | October 5–8, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 49% | 2%[f] |
| 50%[g] | 50% | – | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Research Co.[173] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 44% | 10%[am] |
| 51%[g] | 48% | 1%[am] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[174] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[175][E] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Mitchell Research[176][AK] | September 30, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[177] | September 28–30, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 47% | 9%[an] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 404 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| RMG Research[178][D] | September 24–27, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 4%[l] |
| 50%[g] | 47% | 3% | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College[179] | September 21–26, 2024 | 688 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 688 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 5% | |||
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 918 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 416 (LV) | – | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 894 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 800 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[180][K] | September 19−22, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Emerson College[181] | September 15–18, 2024 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | 4%[f] |
| 50%[g] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,297 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
| Marist College[182] | September 12−17, 2024 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 47% | 3%[ao] |
| 1,138 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 47% | 1%[ao] | ||
| Quinnipiac University[183] | September 12–16, 2024 | 905 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[184] | September 11–12, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 49% | 3%[i] |
| Mitchell Research[185][AK] | September 11, 2024 | 580 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| co/efficient (R)[186] | September 4–6, 2024 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[187] | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Patriot Polling[188] | September 1–3, 2024 | 822 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Cygnal (R)[189] | August 28 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[190] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Emerson College[191] | August 25–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 47% | 3%[ap] |
| 51%[g] | 48% | 1%[aq] | ||||
| ActiVote[192] | July 28 – August 28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 50% | – |
| EPIC-MRA[193] | August 23–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 702 (RV) | 49% | 46% | 5% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| YouGov[194][AL] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 44% | 12%[ar] |
| – (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% | ||
| TIPP Insights[195][M] | August 20–22, 2024 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[196][AM] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[197][O] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Focaldata[130] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 47% | – |
| The Bullfinch Group[198][Y] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[199][AB] | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[200] | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[201] | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| 619 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 5% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[57] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[58] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 6% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[202][Q] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[203] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | 4% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[204][AN] | July 25–26, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Fox News[205] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[206] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| 49%[g] | 51% | – | ||||
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[207][P] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[208] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[209] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 616 (LV) | 48% | 46% | 6% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[210] | October 12–14, 2024 | 682 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[174] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1%[as] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[211] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 839 (LV) | – | 48% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[179] | September 21–26, 2024 | 688 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | – | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| 688 (LV) | 46% | 46% | – | 2% | 1% | 5% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 894 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 800 (LV) | 50% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Remington Research Group (R)[212][AO] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 0% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[213] | September 16–19, 2024 | 993 (LV) | – | 46% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[183] | September 12–16, 2024 | 905 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 45% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 3%[as] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[214] | September 6–9, 2024 | 556 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| YouGov[215][S] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 43% | 1% | 1% | – | 7%[i] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[216] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| 702 (RV) | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.[at] Natural Law |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [n] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through October 7, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.0% | 46.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | — | 2.7% | Harris +0.1% |
| RealClearPolitics | September 20 – October 8, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 46.7% | 47.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.0% | Trump +0.4% |
| 270toWin | October 7 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.0% | 46.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | Harris +0.4% |
| Average | 46.9% | 46.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | Tie | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Natural Law |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing Resource Group[217] | October 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 3% | – | 2% | – | 6%[au] |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[170][AB] | October 2–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Glengariff Group[218][AP] | October 1–4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Mitchell Research[176][AK] | September 30, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 47% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2%[av] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 404 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 48% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 918 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 0% | – | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 416 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 0% | 1% | 2% | – | 2% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[219] | September 11–19, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 2% | – | 2% | 2% | 3%[aw] |
| Suffolk University/USA Today[220] | September 16–18, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6%[av] |
| Mitchell Research[185][AK] | September 11, 2024 | 580 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 1% | – | 4%[av] |
| CNN/SSRS[221] | August 23–29, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | 4% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Z to A Research (D)[222][AQ] | August 23–26, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | 3% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| YouGov[194][AL] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 7%[ax] |
| – (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | ||
| TIPP Insights[195][M] | August 20–22, 2024 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[197][O] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,093 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Focaldata[130] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | – |
| 702 (RV) | 50% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% | |||
| 702 (A) | 50% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[223] | August 12–15, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| The Bullfinch Group[198][Y] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[199][AB] | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[201] | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 6% |
| 619 (LV) | 48% | 43% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[57] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[58] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[224] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 771 (LV) | – | 41% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[203] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | 5% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Fox News[205] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[225] | July 22–24, 2024 | 512 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | – | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Glengariff Group[226][AP] | July 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 41% | 10% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Emerson College[206] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group[227][AP] | August 26–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 5% |
| EPIC-MRA[193] | August 23–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[228][AR] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[196][AM] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 43% | 5% | 8% |
| Civiqs[229][AQ] | July 13–16, 2024 | 532 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 46% | 46% | 5% | 3% |
Minnesota
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [ay] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 30 – September 13, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 49.6% | 43.6% | 6.8% | Harris +5.8% | |
| RacetotheWH | through September 13, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 49.5% | 43.6% | 6.9% | Harris +5.9% |
| Silver Bulletin | through September 17, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 50.2% | 43.8% | 6.0% | Harris +6.4% |
| 538 | through September 18, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 50.0% | 44.0% | 6.0% | Harris +6.0% |
| Average | 49.8% | 43.8% | 6.4% | Harris +6.0% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[230] | September 10 – October 9, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – |
| SurveyUSA[231][AS] | September 23–26, 2024 | 646 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[232][K] | September 19−22, 2024 | 993 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon[233][AT] | September 16−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9%[az] |
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 517 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| Embold Research/MinnPost[234] | September 4–8, 2024 | 1,616 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 45% | 6%[ba] |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[235][AS] | August 27–29, 2024 | 635 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| SurveyUSA[236][AS] | July 23–25, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | 10%[bb] |
| Fox News[237] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 46% | 2% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris DFL |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[238] | October 12–14, 2024 | 544 (LV) | – | 51% | 43% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[239] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 551 (LV) | – | 51% | 43% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[240] | September 16–19, 2024 | 703 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[241] | September 6–9, 2024 | 617 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
Mississippi
editMissouri
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[242] | September 8 – October 10, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 43% | – |
| Emerson College[243] | September 12–13, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 43% | 4%[f] |
| 55%[g] | 43% | 2%[f] | ||||
| Change Resaerch (D)[244] | September 11–13, 2024 | 1,237 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| GQR (D)[245] | September 6–12, 2024 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 44% | 1% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| ActiVote[246] | July 25 – August 22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 59% | 41% | – |
| YouGov/Saint Louis University[247] | August 8–16, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 41% | 5%[bc] |
Montana
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[248] | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 57% | 39% | 4% |
| 656 (LV) | 57% | 40% | 3% | |||
| RMG Research[249][D] | September 12–19, 2024 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 59% | 38% | 3%[bd] |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[250][AB] |
August 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 41% | 3% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[251][O] | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 35% | 7% |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
| Emerson College[252] | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | 3.0% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
| 58%[g] | 43% | – | ||||
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[248] | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 38% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 656 (LV) | 56% | 39% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% | |||
| Remington Research Group (R)[253][AO] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 39% | – | 2% | – | 3% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[251][O] | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 31% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[254][AU] | August 10–12, 2024 | 538 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College[252] | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 39% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research[255][D] | August 6–14, 2024 | 540 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 57% | 39% | 2% | 2% |
Nebraska
editStatewide
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[256][AV] | October 5–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
| Change Research (D)[257][AW] | October 3–8, 2024 | 895 (LV) | – | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| Impact Research (D)[258][AW] | October 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| The Bullfinch Group[259][Y] | September 27 – October 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| 48% | 38% | 14%[be] | ||||
| SurveyUSA[260][AW] | September 20–23, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 40% | 5%[bf] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[261][AX] | August 26–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[262][AT] | August 23–27, 2024 | 1,293 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 37% | 9%[bg] |
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[263] | September 24–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| 680 (LV) | 52% | 43% | 5% | |||
| SurveyUSA[262][AT] | August 23–27, 2024 | 507 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 42% | 11%[bh] |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[263] | September 24–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| 680 (LV) | 51% | 42% | – | 2% | 1% | 4% | |||
| CNN/SSRS[264] | September 20–25, 2024 | 794 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
Nevada
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [bi] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 7 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.4% | 48.0% | 4.6% | Trump +0.6% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 8, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 49.2% | 47.1% | 3.7% | Harris +2.1% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 9, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 48.0% | 47.9% | 4.1% | Harris +0.1% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 9, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 48.4% | 47.6% | 4.0% | Harris +0.8% |
| 538 | through October 9, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 47.7% | 47.1% | 5.2% | Harris +0.5% |
| Average | 48.1% | 47.5% | 4.4% | Harris +0.6% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R)[265] | October 10–13, 2024 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | 9%[bj] |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[266][B] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Emerson College[267] | October 5–8, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 47% | 5%[bk] |
| 49%[g] | 48% | 3%[bl] | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| RMG Research[268][D] | September 30 – October 3, 2024 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 4%[bm] |
| 49%[g] | 49% | 2%[bn] | ||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[269][E] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[270] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 1%[i] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| TIPP Insights[271][M] | September 23−25, 2024 | 1,044 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| 736 (LV) | 49% | 48% | 3% | |||
| Quantus Insights (R)[272][AY] | September 23−25, 2024 | 628 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[bo] |
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 858 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[273] | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 574 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| 516 (LV) | 52% | 45% | 3% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[274][K] | September 19−22, 2024 | 738 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[275][AO] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[276][AZ] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 44% | 9%[bp] |
| Emerson College[277] | September 15–18, 2024 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 48% | 4%[l] |
| 49%[g] | 49% | 2%[l] | ||||
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 474 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[278] | September 9−16, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| 692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 5% | ||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[279] | September 11–13, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 44% | 11%[bq] |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Patriot Polling[280] | September 1–3, 2024 | 788 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[281] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 5%[br] |
| Emerson College[282] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,168 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 48% | 3%[bs] |
| 49%[g] | 49% | 1%[bt] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[283] | August 23–26, 2024 | 416 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 450 (RV) | 49% | 45% | 6% | |||
| Fox News[49] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2%[i] |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[284][O] | August 13–18, 2024 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Focaldata[285] | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 46% | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[286] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 677 (LV) | 47% | 48% | 5% | |||
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[287] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[288][Q] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[289] | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 7% |
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[290] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Republican National Convention begins | ||||||
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[291] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College[292] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College[293] | October 22–November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| 611 (LV) | 42% | 50% | 8% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein[bu] Green |
Cornel West[bv] Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [n] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through October 2, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | 48.6% | 47.2% | — | — | 1.4% | 2.8% | Harris +1.3% |
| RealClearPolling | September 19 – October 8, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 47.0% | 47.3% | 0.3% | — | 2.5% | 2.9% | Trump +0.3% |
| 270toWin | September 28 – October 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.2% | 47.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | Tie |
| Average | 47.6% | 47.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | Harris +0.4% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West[bw] Independent |
Jill Stein[bx] Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[294] | October 12–14, 2024 | 838 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[295] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 514 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| TIPP Insights[271][M] | September 23−25, 2024 | 1,044 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 43% | 1% | 0% | − | 9% |
| 736 (LV) | 50% | 49% | 0% | 0% | − | 1% | |||
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 858 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% | – | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 574 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| 516 (LV) | 50% | 44% | – | 2% | 2% | 2% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[296] | September 16–19, 2024 | 652 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 9% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[278] | September 9−16, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | – | 0% | 1% | 10%[by] |
| 692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5%[bz] | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[297] | September 6–9, 2024 | 698 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| YouGov[298][S] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 46% | 0% | 1% | – | 4%[i] |
| CNN/SSRS[299] | August 23–29, 2024 | 976 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[300] | August 25–28, 2024 | 490 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[283] | August 23–26, 2024 | 416 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 450 (RV) | 48% | 45% | – | 2% | 4% | 1% | |||
| Fox News[49] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2%[i] |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 8% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[284][O] | August 13–18, 2024 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Focaldata[285] | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 42% | 7% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| 678 (RV) | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
| 678 (A) | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[301] | August 12–15, 2024 | 536 (LV) | – | 42% | 43% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College[286] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| 677 (LV) | 44% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |||
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[287] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 42% | 47% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[302] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 470 (LV) | – | 40% | 40% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[289] | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 43% | 7% | – | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[303] | July 22–24, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 43% | 45% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategies 360[304] | August 7–14, 2024 | 350 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 48% | 42% | 5% | 5% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[305] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 3% | 4%[ca] |
New Hampshire
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [cb] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | September 8 – 13, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 52.5% | 43.5% | 4.0% | Harris +9.0% |
| RacetotheWH | through September 13, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 51.0% | 44.0% | 5.0% | Harris +6.0% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through August 19, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 47.2% | 45.2% | 7.6% | Harris +2.0% |
| Silver Bulletin | through September 15, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 51.4% | 44.3% | 4.3% | Harris +6.1% |
| 538 | through September 16, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 51.1% | 44.3% | 4.6% | Harris +6.8% |
| Average | 50.6% | 44.3% | 5.1% | Harris +6.3% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire[164] | August 15–19, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 52% | 47% | 1% |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Emerson College[306] | July 26–28, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 52%[g] | 48% | – | ||||
| University of New Hampshire[307] | July 23–25, 2024 | 2,875 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 53% | 46% | 1% |
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[308] | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College[309] | October 1–2, 2024 | 2,104 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 51% | 44% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3%[cc] |
| Saint Anselm College[310] | September 11–12, 2024 | 2,241 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 51% | 43% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
New Jersey
editNew Mexico
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[311][K] | September 19−22, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| SurveyUSA[312] | September 12–18, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC | ||||||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| Emerson College[313] | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| 54%[g] | 46% | – | ||||
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[314] | October 12–14, 2024 | 382 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[315] | September 6–9, 2024 | 521 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[316] | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[317] | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | 6% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[318] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc.[319][cd] | September 6–13, 2024 | 532 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 39% | 3% | 9% |
New York
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[320] | September 4–30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 39% | – |
| Emerson College[321][BA] | September 23–25, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 40% | 6%[ce] |
| Siena College[322] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 55% | 42% | 3% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| ActiVote[323] | August 1–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Siena College[324] | July 28 – August 1, 2024 | 1,199 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[325][AC] | July 18–19, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[322] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 40% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 5% |
North Carolina
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided [cf] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 9 – 16, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 47.8% | 47.3% | 4.9% | Trump +0.5% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 15, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 47.9% | 47.9% | 4.2% | Tie |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 11, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.9% | 47.9% | 3.2% | Trump +1.0% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 16, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.6% | 47.7% | 3.7% | Trump +0.9% |
| 538 | through October 16, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.0% | 47.5% | 4.5% | Trump +0.5% |
| Average | 48.2% | 47.7% | 4.1% | Trump +0.5% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[109] | October 10–14, 2024 | 1,031 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[326][K] | October 9–14, 2024 | 1,042 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 46% | 3%[i] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[327] | October 10–13, 2024 | 1,085 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | 6%[cg] |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[328][B] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Emerson College[329] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3%[f] |
| 50%[g] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| ActiVote[330] | September 7 – October 6, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[331] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Quinnipiac University[116] | September 25–29, 2024 | 953 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Washington Post[332] | September 25–29, 2024 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3%[f] |
| 1,001 (LV) | 50% | 48% | 2%[f] | |||
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| High Point University[333] | September 20–29, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 48% | 6%[l] |
| 589 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 48% | 4%[l] | ||
| Emerson College[334][BB] | September 27–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 48% | 3%[f] |
| 50%[g] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| RMG Research[335][D] | September 25–27, 2024 | 780 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 46% | 5%[ch] |
| 51%[g] | 47% | 2%[ci] | ||||
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,173 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 889 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| 828 (LV) | 48% | 50% | 2% | |||
| Fox News[36] | September 20−24, 2024 | 991 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 49% | 1% | ||
| Marist College[336] | September 19−24, 2024 | 1,507 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3%[j] |
| 1,348 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 49% | 2%[j] | ||
| The Bullfinch Group[337][Y] | September 20–23, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[338][K] | September 19−22, 2024 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5%[k] |
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | September 17–21, 2024 | 682 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| 682 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| Meredith College[339] | September 18−20, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 4%[cj] |
| Victory Insights (R)[340] | September 16−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Emerson College[341] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| 49%[g] | 50% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,314 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[342][AB] | September 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 3%[i] |
| TIPP Insights[343][M] | September 11–13, 2024 | 973 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Elon University[344] | September 4−13, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 46% | 9%[ck] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[345] | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 46% | 6%[k] |
| Quantus Insights (R)[346][AY] | September 11–12, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 47% | 5%[cl] |
| 50% | 48% | 2%[cm] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[125] | September 4–8, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 50% | 3%[l] |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,369 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| SurveyUSA[347][BC] | September 4–7, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[348] | September 5–6, 2024 | 692 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 46% | 7%[ck] |
| 619 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 5%[ab] | |||
| Patriot Polling[349] | September 1–3, 2024 | 804 (RV) | – | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[350] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 3%[ab] |
| ActiVote[351] | August 6–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Emerson College[352] | August 25–28, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| 50%[g] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[353][C] | August 26–27, 2024 | 612 (LV) | – | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 645 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| 700 (RV) | 47% | 49% | 4% | |||
| Fox News[49] | August 23–26, 2024 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | 1%[i] |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| High Point University/SurveyUSA[354] | August 19–21, 2024 | 1,053 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| 941 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| Spry Strategies (R)[50][N] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
| Focaldata[355] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[131] | August 9–14, 2024 | 655 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| 655 (LV) | 47% | 49% | 4% | |||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[356] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Navigator Research (D)[57] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[58] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[357] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[358] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Emerson College[359] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [n] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through October 2, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | 47.1% | 47.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | — | 3.3% | Trump +0.8% |
| RealClearPolling | September 20 – October 8, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 47.3% | 47.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.8% | Trump +0.5% |
| 270toWin | October 1 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 46.6% | 47.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 4.1% | Trump +0.4% |
| Average | 47.0% | 47.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 3.3% | Trump +0.5% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[360] | October 12–14, 2024 | 620 (LV) | – | 48% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[109] | October 10–14, 2024 | 1,031 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 49% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3%[as] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[361] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 753 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[116] | September 25–29, 2024 | 953 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2%[as] |
| East Carolina University[362] | September 23–26, 2024 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,173 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 51% | 1% | 1% | 0% | – |
| CNN/SSRS[363] | September 20–25, 2024 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 1% | 2% | – | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 889 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | – | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| 828 (LV) | 47% | 49% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% | |||
| Fox News[36] | September 20−24, 2024 | 991 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | September 17–21, 2024 | 682 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| 682 (LV) | 47% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 7% | |||
| Meredith College[364] | September 18–20, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2%[as] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[365] | September 16–19, 2024 | 868 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[342][AB] | September 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Cygnal (R)[366][BD] | September 15–16, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 6%[as] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[367] | September 6–9, 2024 | 495 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[125] | September 4–8, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 49% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4%[f] |
| YouGov[368][S] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 46% | 0% | 1% | – | 6%[i] |
| East Carolina University[369] | August 26–28, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[370] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 645 (LV) | 48% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% | |||
| Fox News[49] | August 23–26, 2024 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1%[i] |
North Dakota
editOhio
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Post[371] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 44% | 5%[cn] |
| 1,002 (LV) | 51% | 45% | 4%[f] | |||
| Marist College[372] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,511 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 46% | 2%[j] |
| 1,327 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 46% | 2%[j] | ||
| ActiVote[373] | August 28 – September 30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov[374] | September 18–27, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 44% | 5%[co] |
| New York Times/Siena College[179] | September 21–26, 2024 | 687 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| 687 (LV) | 50% | 44% | 6% | |||
| RMG Research[375][D] | September 18−20, 2024 | 757 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 43% | 3%[cp] |
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,488 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 43% | 5% |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,558 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
| Emerson College[376] | September 3–5, 2024 | 945 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 43% | 4% |
| 54%[g] | 45% | 1%[f] | ||||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[377][C] | August 31 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 52% | 43% | 5% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| ActiVote[378] | August 2–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – |
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[379][O] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[380][AB] | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Ohio Northern University[381] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[179] | September 21–26, 2024 | 687 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| 687 (LV) | 49% | 43% | – | 2% | 2% | 4% |
Oklahoma
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll[382] | August 24–31, 2024 | 323 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 56% | 40% | 4% |
Oregon
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffman Research[383] | July 24–26, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
Pennsylvania
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [cq] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 9 – 16, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.1% | 47.9% | 4% | Harris +0.2% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 15, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.9% | 47.3% | 3.8% | Harris +1.6% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 10, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.6% | 48.3% | 3.1% | Harris +0.3% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 14, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.4% | 47.8% | 3.8% | Harris +0.6% |
| 538 | through October 16, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.1% | 47.5% | 4.4% | Harris +0.6% |
| Average | 48.4% | 47.8% | 3.8% | Harris +0.6% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[384][K] | October 9–13, 2024 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3%[i] |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[19] | October 7–10, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 4% |
| 857 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| American Pulse Research & Polling[385] | October 2–10, 2024 | 1,193 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49.5% | 50.5% | – |
| TIPP Insights[386][BE] | October 7–9, 2024 | 1,079 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| 803 (LV) | 48% | 49% | 3% | |||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[387][B] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[388] | October 7–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | 4%[k] |
| Emerson College[389] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| 49%[g] | 50% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Research Co.[390] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 47% | 5%[am] |
| 50%[g] | 49% | 1%[am] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[174] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Hunt Research[391][BF] | October 2–7, 2024 | 1,037 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov[392][BG] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 45% | 8%[cr] |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[393][E] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[394][BH] | September 28–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 6%[e] |
| Patriot Polling[395] | September 27–29, 2024 | 816 (RV) | – | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| The Bullfinch Group[396][BI] | September 26–29, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[397] | September 26–29, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 7%[e] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Emerson College[398][BJ] | September 27–28, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4%[l] |
| 49%[g] | 49% | 2%[l] | ||||
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 993 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| 924 (LV) | 51% | 46% | 3% | |||
| ActiVote[399] | September 1–25, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | – |
| Fox News[36] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | 2% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[400][AB] | September 17–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[401][K] | September 19–22, 2024 | 1,202 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4%[i] |
| 50%[g] | 49% | 1%[i] | ||||
| Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[402][BK] | September 16–22, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 46% | 8%[i] |
| RMG Research[403][D] | September 18–20, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 5%[cs] |
| 49%[g] | 49% | 3%[ct] | ||||
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[404] | September 16–19, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 48% | 4%[cu] |
| Emerson College[405] | September 15–18, 2024 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 48% | 5%[f] |
| 50%[g] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| MassINC Polling Group[406][BL] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 47% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,756 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Marist College[407] | September 12−17, 2024 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3%[cv] |
| 1,476 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 49% | 2%[cw] | ||
| Washington Post[408] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 5%[cx] |
| 1,003 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4%[cx] | |||
| Quinnipiac University[183] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 46% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[409] | September 11−16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 1,082 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 4% | |||
| Suffolk University/USA Today[410] | September 11−16, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[411] | September 14−15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 50% | 2%[i] |
| The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC | ||||||
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,910 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| co/efficient (R)[412] | September 4–6, 2024 | 889 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[413] | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Patriot Polling[414] | September 1–3, 2024 | 857 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[415] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 47% | 8%[e] |
| Wick Insights[416][BM] | August 27–29, 2024 | 1,607 (LV) | – | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[417] | August 25–28, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 48% | 4%[f] |
| 49%[g] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | 1% | ||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[418][C] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| 800 (RV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| YouGov[194][AL] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 43% | 14%[cy] |
| – (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 47% | 6%[cz] | ||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| ActiVote[419] | August 5–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[196][AM] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[50][N] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[420] | August 18–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | 7%[e] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[379][O] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Focaldata[355] | August 6–16, 2024 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[421] | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Emerson College[422][BJ] | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| 49%[g] | 51% | – | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[423] | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[198][Y] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[424] | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| 693 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 4% | |||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[425] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Navigator Research (D)[57] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[58] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[426][BN] | July 29 – August 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[427][P] | July 29–30, 2024 | 627 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| GQR Research (D)[428] | July 26–30, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 46% | 4%[da] |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[429][Q] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Quantus Polls and News[430] | July 27–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[431] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| The Bullfinch Group[432][BI] | July 23–25, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Fox News[433] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[434] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 49%[g] | 51% | – | ||||
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[435][BE] | July 20–23, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 9% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[436][AC] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[437] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Republican National Convention begins | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[438][P] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[439] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 872 (LV) | 47% | 48% | 5% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[440] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Emerson College[441] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College[442] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 600 (LV) | 44% | 48% | 8% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [n] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through October 10, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 48.6% | 46.4% | 0.9% | — | 0.6% | 3.5% | Harris +2.2% |
| 270toWin | October 9 – 13, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.3% | 46.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 4.0% | Harris +0.4% |
| Average | 48.0% | 46.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 3.5% | Harris +1.3% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[443] | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,649 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[19] | October 7–10, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| 857 (LV) | 49% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% | |||
| American Pulse Research & Polling[385] | October 2–10, 2024 | 1,193 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | – | 2% | 0% | 1%[i] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[444] | October 8–9, 2024 | 707 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| TIPP Insights[386][BE] | October 7–9, 2024 | 1,079 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 1% | – | 4% |
| 803 (LV) | 48% | 49% | 1% | 0% | – | 2% | |||
| J.L. Partners[445][BO] | October 5–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University[174] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Hunt Research[391][BF] | October 2–7, 2024 | 1,037 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[446] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 5,686 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| The Bullfinch Group[396][BI] | September 26–29, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | – | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 51% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 993 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | – | 0% | 4% | 2% |
| 924 (LV) | 51% | 45% | – | 0% | 3% | 1% | |||
| Fox News[36] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[400][AB] | September 17–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[447] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[448] | September 11–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| MassINC Polling Group[406][BL] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 46% | − | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[183] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 45% | − | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[449] | September 4–15, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[450] | September 6–9, 2024 | 801 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 9% |
| YouGov[451][S] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | 0% | 1% | – | 8%[i] |
| Wick Insights[416][BM] | August 27–29, 2024 | 1,607 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| CNN/SSRS[452] | August 23–29, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[453] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 46% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 1% | 3% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[454][AO] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 1% | 4% |
| Washington Post[408] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 4%[cx] |
| 1,003 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 1% | 4% |
Rhode Island
editSouth Carolina
editSouth Dakota
editTennessee
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[455] | July 26 – August 29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[456][BP] | September 27 – October 8, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 54% | 35% | 5% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| 971 (LV) | 56% | 35% | 5% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
Texas
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided [db] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | September 25 – October 10, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | 51.4% | 45.4% | 3.2% | Trump +6.0% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 10, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | 51.2% | 45.1% | 3.7% | Trump +6.1% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 7, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | 51.4% | 45.1% | 3.5% | Trump +6.3% |
| 538 | through October 10, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | 50.9% | 44.3% | 4.8% | Trump +6.6% |
| Average | 51.2% | 45.0% | 3.8% | Trump +6.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College[457] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,365 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 46% | 2%[dc] |
| 1,186 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 53% | 46% | 1% | ||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[458] | October 2–6, 2024 | 811 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 45% | 5%[ab] |
| 775 (LV) | 50% | 45% | 5%[ab] | |||
| New York Times/Siena College[87] | September 29 – October 6, 2024 | 617 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| RMG Research[459][D] | September 25–27, 2024 | 779 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 45% | 3%[dd] |
| 53%[g] | 46% | 1% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[91][X] | September 25–26, 2024 | 759 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| Emerson College[460] | September 22−24, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 46% | 3%[f] |
| 52%[g] | 47% | 1%[f] | ||||
| ActiVote[461] | September 7−24, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 2,716 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 2,940 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 43% | 5% |
| Emerson College[462] | September 3–5, 2024 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 51%[g] | 48% | 1%[de] | ||||
| YouGov[463][BQ] | August 23–31, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 44% | 7%[df] |
| ActiVote[464] | August 14–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54.5% | 45.5% | – |
| Quantus Insights (R)[465] | August 29–30, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 9%[dg] |
| 52% | 44% | 4%[dh] | ||||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[466][X] | August 21–22, 2024 | 725 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 44% | 6% |
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| ActiVote[467] | July 31 – August 13, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| YouGov[468][BR] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[469] | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 39% | 15%[di] |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston[470] | September 26 – October 10, 2024 | 1,329 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[91][X] | September 25–26, 2024 | 759 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | 0% | 1% | – | 6% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[471] | September 13–18, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| CWS Research (R)[472][BS] | September 4–9, 2024 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 41% | – | 0% | 2% | 6% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research/Lake Research Partners (D)[473] | August 24–29, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 43% | – | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| YouGov[463][BQ] | August 23–31, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 44% | – | 2% | 0% | 5% |
Utah
editVermont
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire[164] | August 15–19, 2024 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 70% | 29% | 1% |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[164] | August 15–19, 2024 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 67% | 27% | 3% | 0% | – | 0% | 3%[dj] |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[474][BT] | April 13–21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | – | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[475] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 117 (RV) | – | 58% | 28% | 14%[dk] |
| 111 (LV) | 59% | 28% | 13%[dl] |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[474][BT] | April 13–21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[474][BT] | April 13–21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | – | 52% | 29% | 19% |
Virginia
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [dm] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | September 19 – October 7, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 50.0% | 42.4% | 7.6% | Harris +7.6% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 10, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 51.1% | 42.4% | 6.5% | Harris +8.7% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 4, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 50.7% | 44.5% | 5.8% | Harris +6.2% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 12, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 50.9% | 42.5% | 6.6% | Harris +8.4% |
| 538 | through October 12, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 50.3% | 42.8% | 6.9% | Harris +7.5% |
| Average | 50.6% | 42.9% | 6.5% | Harris +7.7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University[476] | September 28 − October 4, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 41% | 7%[dn] |
| Emerson College[477][BU] | September 22−24, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 44% | 4%[f] |
| 53%[g] | 46% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 899 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[478][K] | September 19−22, 2024 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| ActiVote[479] | August 19 – September 17, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – |
| Research America Inc.[480][BV] | September 3−9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 45% | 10%[do] |
| 756 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 46% | 6%[dp] | ||
| Washington Post/Schar School[481] | September 4–8, 2024 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 43% | 6%[cx] |
| 1,005 (LV) | 51% | 43% | 6%[cx] | |||
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 873 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Quantus Insights (R)[482][AY] | August 20–22, 2024 | 629 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Roanoke College[483] | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 44% | 10%[dq] |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Emerson College[484] | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[485] | July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 13%[dr] |
| 265 (LV) | 43% | 47% | 10%[ds] | |||
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[486] | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| 544 (LV) | 46% | 42% | 12% | |||
| New York Times/Siena College[487] | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% | ||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[488][AC] | July 6–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University[489] | September 16–25, 2024 | 832 (A) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 37% | 3% | 1% | – | 16%[dt] |
| 762 (RV) | 47% | 37% | 2% | 1% | – | 13%[du] | |||
| Washington Post/Schar School[481] | September 4–8, 2024 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 42% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 7%[dv] |
| 1,005 (LV) | 50% | 42% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6%[dv] | |||
| Virginia Commonwealth University[490] | August 26 – September 6, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 36% | 2% | 1% | – | 15%[dw] |
| 749 (RV) | 49% | 36% | 1% | 1% | – | 13%[dx] |
Washington
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[491][BW] | October 9–14, 2024 | 703 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 35% | 8% |
| ActiVote[492] | September 7 – October 13, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 60% | 40% | – |
| Elway Research[493][BX] | September 3–6, 2024 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 53% | 32% | 11% |
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| DHM Research[494] | July 12–17, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 40% | 14%[dy] |
| SurveyUSA[495][BW] | July 10–13, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[496][BY] | July 24–25, 2024 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 38% | 6% | 4% |
West Virginia
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America[497][BZ] | August 21–27, 2024 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 34% | 5% |
Wisconsin
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [dz] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 9 – 16, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 47.8% | 48.2% | 4% | Trump +0.4% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 15, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.7% | 47.5% | 3.8% | Harris +1.2% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 13, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.3% | 48.7% | 3% | Trump +0.4% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 15, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.7% | 47.9% | 3.4% | Harris +0.8% |
| 538 | through October 16, 2024 | October 16, 2024 | 48.1% | 47.5% | 4.4% | Harris +0.6% |
| Average | 48.3% | 48.0% | 3.7% | Harris +0.3% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriot Polling[498] | October 12–14, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[499] | October 8–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 4%[e] |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[500][B] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Emerson College[501] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2%[f] |
| 49%[g] | 50% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Research Co.[502] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 45% | 8%[am] |
| 50%[g] | 48% | 2%[am] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[174] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Arc Insights[503][CA] | October 2–6, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[504][E] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[505] | September 28–30, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 7%[e] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| ActiVote[506] | August 29 – September 29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[179] | September 21–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 680 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[507] | September 18–26, 2024 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| 882 (RV) | 52%[g] | 48% | – | |||
| 798 (LV) | 50% | 45% | 5% | |||
| 798 (LV) | 52%[g] | 48% | – | |||
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 849 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| 785 (LV) | 51% | 48% | 1% | |||
| RMG Research[508][D] | September 17–23, 2024 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 49% | 1%[f] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[509][K] | September 19−22, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 1% |
| Emerson College[510] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| 49%[g] | 50% | 1%[f] | ||||
| MassINC Polling Group[406][CB] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 46% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[41] | September 9−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Marist College[511] | September 12−17, 2024 | 1,312 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3%[ea] |
| 1,194 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 49% | 1%[eb] | ||
| Quinnipiac University[183] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[512][AB] | September 11–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[513] | September 11–12, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 4%[ec] |
| Morning Consult[41] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 638 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| co/efficient (R)[514] | September 4–6, 2024 | 917 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[515] | September 3–6, 2024 | 946 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Marquette University Law School[516] | August 28 – September 5, 2024 | 822 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| 822 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 52%[g] | 48% | – | ||
| 738 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 44% | 7% | ||
| 738 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 52%[g] | 48% | – | ||
| Patriot Polling[517] | September 1–3, 2024 | 826 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[518] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 7%[e] |
| Emerson College[519] | August 25–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| 49%[g] | 50% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 648 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
| 701 (RV) | 52% | 44% | 4% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| YouGov[194][AL] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.3% | 48% | 42% | 10%[ed] |
| – (LV) | ± 5.9% | 51% | 46% | 3% | ||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| BK Strategies[520][CC] | August 19–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[196][AM] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[50][N] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[197][O] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Focaldata[130] | August 6–16, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 48% | – |
| Quantus Polls and News[521][CD] | August 14–15, 2024 | 601 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| TIPP Insights[522][BE] | August 12–14, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| 976 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| The Bullfinch Group[198][Y] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[523] | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Navigator Research (D)[57] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[58] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[201] | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 661 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 3% | |||
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| RMG Research [524][D] | July 31 – August 5, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Marquette University Law School[525] | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49%[g] | 50% | 1% | ||
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% | ||
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50%[g] | 49% | 1% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[526][Q] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[527] | July 24–28, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Fox News[528] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Emerson College[137] | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| 51%[g] | 49% | – | ||||
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[529][P] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[530][BE] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[142] | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Emerson College[531] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[532] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| 603 (LV) | 46% | 48% | 6% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[174] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4%[ee] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[533] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 533 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[179] | September 21–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| 680 (LV) | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[35] | September 19–25, 2024 | 849 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 785 (LV) | 50% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Remington Research Group (R)[534][AO] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[535] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[183] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3%[ee] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[536] | September 6–9, 2024 | 626 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| YouGov[537][S] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 44% | 1% | 1% | – | 7%[ef] |
| CNN/SSRS[538] | August 23–29, 2024 | 976 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 44% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[539] | August 25–28, 2024 | 672 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | – | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] | August 23–26, 2024 | 648 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 701 (RV) | 51% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.[eg] Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [n] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through October 7, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.7% | 46.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | Harris +1.4% |
| RealClearPolitics | September 19 – October 8, 2024 | October 8, 2024 | 47.2% | 46.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | Harris +0.4% |
| 270toWin | October 2 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.0% | 45.7% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.1% | Harris +1.3% |
| Average | 47.3% | 46.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.5% | Harris +1.0% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal[22] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[31][I] | September 23–29, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Marquette University Law School[507] | September 18–26, 2024 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3%[eh] |
| 798 (LV) | 49% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2%[eh] | |||
| AtlasIntel[33] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | – |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[34] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 48% | 46% | 0% | 1% | 2% | – | 3% |
| MassINC Polling Group[406][CB] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 45% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[512][AB] | September 11–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4%[as] |
| Marquette University Law School[516] | August 28 – September 5, 2024 | 822 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 738 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1%[ei] | ||
| Z to A Research (D)[540][AQ] | August 23–26, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | 2% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| YouGov[194][AL] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.3% | 45% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 9%[ej] |
| – (LV) | ± 5.9% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[197][O] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Focaldata[130] | August 6–16, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 700 (RV) | 50% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | |||
| 700 (A) | 50% | 43% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[541] | August 12–15, 2024 | 469 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| The Bullfinch Group[198][Y] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[201] | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 42% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 661 (LV) | 49% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[57] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[58] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 48% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[542] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 597 (LV) | – | 43% | 43% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Marquette University Law School[525] | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[527] | July 24–28, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 6% | – | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[543] | July 22–24, 2024 | 523 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 5% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Fox News[528] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies (R)[50][N] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College[137] | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[196][AM] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 42% | 4% | 7% |
| Civiqs[544][AQ] | July 13–16, 2024 | 514 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
Wyoming
editSee also
edit
Notes
edit- ^ a b c d Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
- ^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed because of redistricting.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt Cite error: The named reference
keywas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i "Other" with 3%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Another party's candidates" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e f g "Other" with 2%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
- ^ a b c d e f g Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "One of the other party tickets" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
- ^ a b c d e f "Another candidate" with 2%
- ^ a b Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%
- ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0%
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; "Undecided" with 3%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
- ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ a b Another Party's Candidate with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
- ^ a b c d e f g Randall Terry (C) with 0%
- ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign, but he remains on the ballot in Michigan.
- ^ "Other" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
- ^ a b c Joseph Kishore (SEP) & Randall Terry (C) with 0% each
- ^ Randall Terry (C), Joseph Kishore (SEP), & Shiva Ayyadurai (I) with 0% each
- ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Other" with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 7%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; "Undecided" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 5%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ None of these candidates & "Someone else" with 1% each
- ^ None of these candidates with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
- ^ "None of the above" with 4%; "Others" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 8%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; None of these candidates with 1%
- ^ Not on the ballot.
- ^ Not on the ballot.
- ^ Not on the ballot.
- ^ Not on the ballot.
- ^ None of these candidates with 3%
- ^ None of these candidates with 1%
- ^ "Others" with 2%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Third party candidates" & "Undecided" with 2%
- ^ a b "Another candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" & "Would not vote" with 1% each
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Another Candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Neither/Other" with 4%
- ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else"
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 4%
- ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 8%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Other candidate" with 3%; "None/Would not vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
- ^ "Other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 8%. "Refused" and "Undecided" with 1% each
- ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 4%; "Refused" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Refused" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 6%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
- ^ a b Randall Terry (C) & Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0% each
- ^ "Other" with 2%
- ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign, but he remains on the ballot in Wisconsin.
- ^ a b Randall Terry (C) with 1%; Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0%
- ^ Randall Terry (C) with 1%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nick Begich's campaign for U.S. House and the National Republican Congressional Committee
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ a b c d e f Poll conducted for the Article III Project
- ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Democracy Defense Project and Echo Canyon Consulting
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c d e Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ Poll sponsored by Inside CA Politics and The Hill
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Republican Party of Florida
- ^ Poll conducted for WTVJ & WSCV
- ^ a b c d e f Poll commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce
- ^ Poll conducted for WTVT
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
- ^ Poll conducted for WAGA-TV
- ^ Poll sponsored by Indy Politics
- ^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Destiny Wells, 2024 Democratic nominee for attorney general
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register & Mediacom Iowa
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, College Park
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by MIRS
- ^ a b c d e Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
- ^ a b c d e Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- ^ Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
- ^ a b c Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by KSTP-TV, WDIO-TV, & KAAL-TV
- ^ a b c Poll commissioned by Split Ticket
- ^ Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
Fischerwas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the campaign of Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for Nebraska's Class 3 Senate seat
- ^ Poll sponsored by Retire Career Politicians PAC
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
- ^ Poll conducted for the Democracy Defense Project
- ^ Poll sponsored by WPIX-TV
- ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- ^ Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
- ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the University of Austin
- ^ Poll sponsored by Jacobin
- ^ Poll conducted for the Sentinel Action Fund PAC
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
- ^ Poll sponsored by La Torre Live
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by 2WAY
- ^ Poll commissioned by Early Vote Action PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Daily Mail
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
BCTwas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
- ^ Poll sponsored by Texas Gun Rights
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by WAVY-TV, WRIC-TV, WFXR-TV, & WDCW-TV
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School
- ^ Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com
- ^ This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
- ^ Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews
- ^ Poll sponsored by Fields of Freedom Alliance
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Wisconsin Watch
- ^ Poll sponsored by Platform Communications
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trending Politics
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