The 2024 United States presidential election in Colorado is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Colorado voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Colorado has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
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A fast-growing Mountain West state that was formerly Republican leaning, no Republican has won Colorado by double digits at the presidential level since Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide re-election victory. Colorado was consistently competitive at the presidential level from the late 1980s going through the 2010s, including Hillary Clinton narrowly winning the state by 4.9% in 2016. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden carried the state by 13.5%, becoming the first presidential candidate to win Colorado by a double-digit margin since Reagan. The last Republican to win the Centennial State's electoral votes was George W. Bush in his 2004 re-election victory, which he won by a margin of 4.67%. Since then, the state has shifted substantially to the left. Today, Colorado is a slightly-to-moderately blue state,[2] with Democrats winning the state in every presidential election starting in 2008, occupying every statewide office since 2023, and holding comfortable majorities in its state legislature.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for re-election to a second term, but withdrew from the race on July 21,[3][4] Biden's polling numbers throughout 2024 indicated a tighter race due to concerns about his age and health and a heavily scrutinized debate performance in June 2024. He endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[5]
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editThe Colorado Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 477,365 | 82.5% | 72 | 72 | |
| Noncommitted Delegate | 52,122 | 9.0% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 17,936 | 3.1% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 16,761 | 2.9% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 4,313 | 0.7% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 3,986 | 0.7% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 2,591 | 0.5% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 2,402 | 0.4% | |||
| Stephen Lyons | 1,481 | 0.3% | |||
| Total: | 578,957 | 100% | 72 | 72 | |
Republican primary
editThe Colorado Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 555,863 | 63.46% | 24 | ||
| Nikki Haley | 291,615 | 33.29% | 12 | ||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 12,672 | 1.45% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 7,188 | 0.82% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 5,113 | 0.58% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 2,220 | 0.25% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 1,269 | 0.14% | |||
| Total: | 875,940 | 100.00% | 36 | 1 | 37 |
14th Amendment lawsuit
editThe Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a left-leaning non-profit, filed a lawsuit on behalf of four Republicans and independent voters, saying that Donald Trump is ineligible to run for president because of a section in the 14th Amendment that states "no person shall ... hold any office, civil or military, under the United States ... who, having previously taken an oath .... as an officer of the United States ... shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof". A trial on this case took place during October and November 2023.[9][10] The judge found that Trump engaged in insurrection but declined to remove Trump from the primary ballot, saying there is "scant direct evidence regarding whether the Presidency is one of the positions subject to disqualification".[11][12] On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump is disqualified from the Presidency under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment and ordered that Trump be removed from the 2024 Colorado Republican presidential primary ballot.[13][14][15]
Trump appealed this ruling to the Supreme Court of the United States, and arguments were heard in February.[16] The Colorado decision was stayed pending appeal, and Trump was included on the certified ballot, which began to be mailed to overseas voters on January 20.[17] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court issued a ruling unanimously reversing the Colorado Supreme Court decision, ruling that states had no authority to remove Trump from their ballots, and this was instead a power held by Congress.[18]
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[19] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[20] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[22] | Likely D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[23] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| The Economist[24] | Likely D | August 15, 2024 |
| 538[25] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[26] | Likely D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
editJoe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| Global Strategy Group (D)[27][A] | June 17–24, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| McLaughlin and Associates (R)[28] | June 9–11, 2024 | 725 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| John Zogby Strategies[29] | April 13–21, 2024 | 529 (LV) | – | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| New Bridge Strategy (R)/Aspect Strategic (D)[30][B] | March 15–19, 2024 | 632 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Florida Atlantic University[31] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 170 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| 179 (RV) | – | 48% | 43% | 9% | ||
| Emerson College[32] | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,856 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 41% | 35% | 24% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[33][A] | January 22–28, 2024 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| YouGov/University of Colorado Boulder[34] | December 1–18, 2023 | 800 (A) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Cygnal (R)/Aspect Strategies (D)[35][B] | November 26–27, 2023 | 652 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 36% | 19% |
| Emerson College[36] | October 1–4, 2023 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[37] | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Emerson College[38] | October 26–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Emerson College[39] | September 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[40] | July 24–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | 6% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[41] | April 6–8, 2022 | 612 (V) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||||
| Global Strategy Group (D)[27][A] | June 17–24, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 36% | 12% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/University of Colorado Boulder[34] | December 1–18, 2023 | 800 (A) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 33% | 21% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[37] | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling (D)[41] | April 6–8, 2022 | 612 (V) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 16% |
See also
editNotes
editReferences
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Barabak, Mark Z. (March 21, 2023). "Column: From red bastion to blue bulwark: What political shift in Colorado and West means for U.S." Los Angeles Times. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ "Colorado Presidential Primary". Associated Press. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Primary Presidential Election - Unofficial Results". Colorado Secretary of State Election Results. March 13, 2024. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Delegate Count - Republican". AP News. March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ See Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution
- ^ Durkee, Alison. "Trump Faces First Hearing Over Whether He Can Run For President Today—What To Watch For In 14th Amendment Case". Forbes. Retrieved October 31, 2023.
- ^ Cohen, Marshall (November 18, 2023). "Colorado judge keeps Trump on 2024 primary ballot as latest 14th Amendment case falters | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
- ^ "Colorado judge rules Trump 'engaged in an insurrection' — but can still run for president". Politico. November 17, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
- ^ Astor, Maggie (December 19, 2023). "Trump Is Disqualified From the 2024 Ballot, Colorado Supreme Court Rules". The New York Times. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
- ^ Cohen, Marshall (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court removes Trump from 2024 ballot based on 14th Amendment's 'insurrectionist ban'". CNN. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
- ^ Grumbach, Gary; Gregorian, Dareh (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off the state's 2024 ballot for violating the U.S. Constitution". NBC News. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
- ^ Liptak, Adam (January 18, 2024). "Trump Asks Supreme Court to Rule He Is Eligible to Hold Office". The New York Times.
- ^ "Despite US Supreme Court appeal, Trump certified as candidate on Colorado GOP ballot". ABC News. Retrieved January 19, 2024.
- ^ "Donald Trump: US Supreme Court rules that states cannot kick him off the presidential ballot". Sky News. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ a b "Global Strategy Group (D)" (PDF).
- ^ "x.com".
- ^ "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24.
- ^ New Bridge Strategy (R)/Aspect Strategic (D)
- ^ "March 4, 2023 – FAU PolCom Lab".
- ^ Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Global Strategy Group (D)" (PDF).
- ^ a b "YouGov/University of Colorado Boulder".
- ^ "Cygnal (R)/Aspect Strategies (D)" (PDF).
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 16, 2023). "Colorado 2024 Poll: Biden Leads Trump by Four Points among Centennial State Voters". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b "x.com".
- ^ Mumford, Camille (November 1, 2022). "Colorado 2022: Senate Race Tightens but Bennet Maintains Lead; Polis Holds 14-Point Lead Over Ganahl". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 22, 2022). "Colorado 2022: Democratic Senator Bennet and Governor Polis Hold Double-Digit Leads in Re-Election Campaigns". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "McLaughlin & Associates (R)" (PDF).
- ^ a b Blueprint Polling (D)