The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
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A purple to slightly blue Northeastern state partly within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania has not backed a Republican for president by double digits since 1972, when 49-state landslide winner Richard Nixon won it by nearly 20 points; and the last Republican to win the state's electoral votes twice was Ronald Reagan. Between 1992 and 2012, Pennsylvania voted Democratic in every presidential election, although doing so by single-digit margins in each of them apart from Barack Obama's 10.31% victory in 2008. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump (whose home state was neighboring New York in said cycle) narrowly carried the state by 0.72% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democrat Nominee Joe Biden by 1.18% as the latter defeated the former nationwide. Pennsylvania is considered to be a critical swing state in 2024, with most major news organizations marking it as a tossup.[2][better source needed]
Voting law changes
editIn 2022, no-excuse mail-in voting was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.[3] Automatic voter registration was enacted in 2023, helping to register citizens when getting a driver's license.[4]
General election
editTrump assassination attempt
editOn July 13, 2024, Trump was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer died and two others were critically injured.[5]
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[6] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Tossup | August 20, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8] | Tossup | August 26, 2024 |
| CNN[9] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[10] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| 538[11] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| RCP[12] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| CNalysis[13] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[14] | Tossup | May 8, 2024 |
Polling
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[15] | July 22 – September 3, 2024 | September 3, 2024 | 47.2% | 47.2% | 5.6% | Tie |
| 270ToWin[16] | August 12–September 5, 2024 | September 5, 2024 | 47.2% | 46.5% | 6.3% | Harris +0.7% |
| 538[17] | through September 6, 2024 | September 6, 2024 | 46.3% | 45.5% | 8.2% | Harris +0.8% |
| Silver Bulletin[18] | through September 6, 2024 | September 6, 2024 | 48.0% | 47.4% | 4.6% | Harris +0.6% |
| The Hill/DDHQ[19] | through September 6, 2024 | September 6, 2024 | 48.3% | 47.7% | 4.0% | Harris +0.6% |
| Race to the WH[20] | through September 5, 2024 | September 5, 2024 | 48.4% | 47.0% | 4.6% | Harris +1.4% |
| Average | 47.35% | 46.6% | 6.05% | Harris +0.75% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriot Polling[21] | September 1–3, 2024 | 857 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[22] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 47% | 8%[c] |
| Wick Insights[23][A] | August 27–29, 2024 | 1,607 (LV) | – | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[24] | August 25–28, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 48% | 4%[d] |
| 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49%[e] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[25] | August 23–26, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | 1% | ||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[26][B] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| 800 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% | ||
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. ends his presidential campaign | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| ActiVote[27] | August 5–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[28][g] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[29][C] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[30] | August 18–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | 7%[h] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[31][D] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Focaldata[32] | August 6–16, 2024 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[33] | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Emerson College[34][E] | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||
| Quinnipiac University[35] | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[36][F] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[37] | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| 693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 46% | 4% | ||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[38] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Navigator Research (D)[39] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[40] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[41][G] | July 29 – August 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[42][H] | July 29–30, 2024 | 627 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| GQR Research (D)[43] | July 26–30, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 46% | 4%[i] |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[44][I] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Quantus Polls and News[45] | July 27–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[46] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| The Bullfinch Group[47][J] | July 23–25, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Fox News[48] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[49] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||
| Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[50][K] | July 20–23, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 9% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[51][L] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[52] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Republican National Convention begins | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[53][H] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[54] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 872 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 48% | 5% | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[55] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Emerson College[56] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College[57] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 600 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% | ||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wick Insights[23][A] | August 27–29, 2024 | 1,607 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| CNN/SSRS[58] | August 23–29, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[59] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 46% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[25] | August 23–26, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 1% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies (R)[29][C] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – | 1% | – | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[31][D] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Focaldata[32] | August 6–16, 2024 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 719 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 46% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% | ||
| 719 (A) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 47% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 2% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[33] | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 44% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[60] | August 12–15, 2024 | 825 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Emerson College[34][E] | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[35] | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 45% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[36][F] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 0% | – | 6% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[61] | July 31 – August 11, 2024 | 920 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 43% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| New York Times/Siena College[62] | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 5% |
| 693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | ||
| Navigator Research (D)[39] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[40] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 48% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 0% | – | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[63] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 743 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[46] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 3% | – | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| The Bullfinch Group[47][J] | July 23–25, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 44% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[64] | July 22–24, 2024 | 851 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | 5% | – | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| Fox News[48] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Emerson College[49] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[65][M] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 45% | 4% | – | 2% | – | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[54] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 42% | 7% | 0% | 3% | – | 8% |
| 872 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 0% | 2% | – | 7% | ||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research (D)[66][N] | August 23–26, 2024 | 613 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | 5% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[28][g] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 11% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[41][G] | July 29 – August 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | 4% | 6% |
| Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[67] | July 22–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 7% |
| Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||
| Civiqs[68][N] | July 13–16, 2024 | 536 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoCal Strategies (R)[26][B] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| 800 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% | ||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[51][L] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[65][M] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[52] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[69][O] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[53][H] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[70][P] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[54] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| 872 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 48% | 7% | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71] | July 1–5, 2024 | 794 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 51% | 5% |
| Emerson College[72][O] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[73] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[74] | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| The Bullfinch Group[75][J] | June 14–19, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.46% | 45% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College[76] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[77] | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| 923 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 47% | 8% | ||
| KAConsulting (R)[78][Q] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Prime Group[79][R] | May 9–16, 2024 | 487 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[55] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[80] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[81] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 48% | 7% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[82][S] | April 24–30, 2024 | 1,398 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[83] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||
| CBS News/YouGov[84] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,288 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Muhlenberg College[85] | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Fox News[86] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,141 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[87] | April 8–15, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| The Bullfinch Group[88][F] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 44% | 18%[j] |
| Franklin & Marshall College[89] | March 20–31, 2024 | 870 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Wall Street Journal[90] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[91][T] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| CNN/SSRS[92] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,132 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College[93] | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48%[e] | 52% | – | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[94] | March 8–12, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Fox News[95] | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[96] | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[97] | February 12–20, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Emerson College[56] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Chism Strategies[98] | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 32% | 40% | 28% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[99] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[100] | January 17–28, 2024 | 507 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[101] | January 16–21, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[102] | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University[103] | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 46% | 5%[k] |
| The Bullfinch Group[104] | December 14–18, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D)[105] | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Muhlenberg College[106] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[107] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[108] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College[109] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 816 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[57] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[110] | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[111] | October 5–10, 2023 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112] | October 7–9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Emerson College[113] | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University[114] | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[115][U] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Prime Group[116][R] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 38% | 43% | 19%[l] | ||
| Quinnipiac University[117] | June 22–26, 2023 | 1,584 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[118][V] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[119] | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[120] | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Targoz Market Research[121] | November 2–6, 2022 | 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 52% | 2% |
| Emerson College[122] | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College[123] | September 23–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[124] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College[125] | August 22–23, 2022 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[126][W] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[127] | July 19–21, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[128] | February 15–16, 2022 | 635 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[129][X] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[69][O] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[70][P] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| YouGov[130][Y] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| New York Times/Siena College[54] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 11% |
| 872 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 42% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 9% | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71] | July 1–5, 2024 | 794 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Cygnal (R)[74] | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College[76] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 12% |
| Marist College[131] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,181 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 47% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3%[m] |
| KAConsulting (R)[78][Q] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 39% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 7%[n] |
| Prime Group[79][R] | May 9–16, 2024 | 487 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[55] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[80] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[81] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 36% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 1% | 13%[o] |
| 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 37% | 41% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 12%[o] | ||
| Emerson College[83] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News[86] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,141 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[87] | April 8–15, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| Wall Street Journal[90] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 10% |
| Emerson College[93] | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[94] | March 8–12, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Fox News[95] | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[97] | February 12–20, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 45% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College[56] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132] | January 16–21, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[103] | January 4–8, 2023 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 41% | 39% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 3%[p] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[133] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[65][M] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 46% | 4% | 2% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[134] | May 2–4, 2024 | 635 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 9% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[89] | March 20–31, 2024 | 870 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[135] | March 14–17, 2024 | 775 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[100] | January 17–28, 2024 | 494 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 37% | 8% | 2% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[68][N] | July 13–16, 2024 | 536 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 46% | 6% | 6% |
| 1983 Labs[136] | June 28–30, 2024 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 46% | 3% | 10%[q] |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[77] | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 8% | 12% |
| 923 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 42% | 7% | 8% | ||
| Muhlenberg College[85] | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 35% | 35% | 18% | 12% |
| The Bullfinch Group[137][J] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 7% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[138] | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,069 (LV) | – | 39% | 40% | 9% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[139] | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 7% | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College[140] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.6 | 35% | 35% | 23% | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112] | October 7–9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 39% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS[92] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,132 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[141] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[53][H] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Emerson College[56] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 48% | 19% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[48] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[53][H] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 42% | 50% | 8% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[53][H] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 37% | 50% | 13% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[48] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 44% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[53][H] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Muhlenberg College[106] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[65][M] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 6% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[53][H] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College[106] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 33% | 38% | 29% |
| New York Times/Siena College[142] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[139] | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 36% | 26% | 18% | 7% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College[106] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| New York Times/Siena College[142] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[143] | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[118][V] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[124] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[139] | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 34% | 13% | 3% | 12% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[143] | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
edit| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 926,633 | 88.2% | 159 | 159 | |
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 68,310 | 6.5% | |||
| Write-in votes | 55,611 | 5.3% | |||
| Total: | 1,050,554 | 100.0% | 159 | 27 | 186 |
Republican primary
edit| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 790,690 | 82.8% | 16 | 46 | 62 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 157,228 | 16.5% | |||
| Write-in votes | 10,387 | 1.2% | |||
| Unprojected delegates: | 5 | 5 | |||
| Total: | 958,305 | 100.0% | 16 | 51 | 67 |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Other" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e f With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- ^ "Other" with 3%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- ^ Independent/Third party candidate with 12%
- ^ "Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with >1%
- ^ Lars Mapstead with 1%
- ^ a b Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
- ^ "Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by 2WAY
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by Early Vote Action PAC
- ^ a b c d e f g h Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
References
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