The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1] Michigan is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.[2]
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An Upper Midwestern state at the heart of the Rust Belt, no Republican presidential candidate has won Michigan with a majority since George H. W. Bush in 1988, and the last Republican to win by double digits was Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide four years earlier. The state was formerly part of the Blue Wall, having voted Democratic in every presidential election between 1992 and 2012, but only doing so by a double-digit margin in 1996 and 2008. Then, in 2016, Republican Donald Trump carried Michigan by a very narrow 0.23% in an unexpected sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt which earned him a presidential victory, only to have the state flipped back into the Democratic column by Joe Biden four years later with a 2.78% margin of victory as the former lost the presidency to the latter. However, it was the worst margin for a victorious Democrat dating back to the 2.01% margin of victory for John F. Kennedy in the state in the extremely close 1960 election.
Michigan is purple to slightly blue, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019. Due to the state's nearly even partisan lean and the close margin by which it was decided in 2016 and 2020, this race is considered to be a tossup, although recent polls conducted in the state have shown to be narrowly favoring Kamala Harris.
On April 18, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was nominated by Michigan's Natural Law Party.[3] He later dropped out of the presidential race nationally on August 23rd, but will remain on the ballot.[4][5][6] Jill Stein from the Green party has ballot access.[7][8]
General election
editCandidates
editThe following candidates have qualified for the general election ballot:[9]
- Kamala Harris — Democratic
- Donald Trump — Republican
- Chase Oliver — Libertarian
- Randall Terry — US Taxpayers
- Jill Stein — Green
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — Natural Law[a]
- Joseph Kishore — Independent (Socialist Equality Party nominee)
- Cornel West — Independent
Additionally, voters have the option to write-in candidates who file a letter of intent by October 25.[10]
Predictions
editSource | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[11] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Tossup | August 20, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Tossup | September 4, 2024 |
CNN[14] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
The Economist[15] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
538[16] | Tossup | September 6, 2024 |
RCP[17] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
CNalysis[18] | Tilt D | August 27, 2024 |
Inside Elections[19] | Tossup | May 8, 2024 |
Polling
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [b] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | July 10 – August 30, 2024 | August 30, 2024 | 48.0% | 46.9% | 5.1% | Harris +1.1% |
270ToWin | August 10–September 5, 2024 | September 5, 2024 | 47.4% | 45.3% | 7.3% | Harris +2.1% |
538 | through September 6, 2024 | September 6, 2024 | 46.6% | 44.6% | 8.8% | Harris +2.0% |
Silver Bulletin | through September 6, 2024 | September 6, 2024 | 48.0% | 46.2% | 5.8% | Harris +1.8% |
The Hill/DDHQ | through September 6, 2024 | September 6, 2024 | 48.3% | 46.8% | 4.9% | Harris +1.5% |
RacetotheWH | through September 5, 2024 | September 5, 2024 | 48.6% | 46.0% | 5.4% | Harris +2.6% |
Average | 47.6% | 45.75% | 6.65% | Harris +1.85% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patriot Polling[20] | September 1–3, 2024 | 822 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
Trafalgar Group (R)[21] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Emerson College[22] | August 25–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 47% | 3%[d] |
800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51%[e] | 48% | 1%[f] | ||
ActiVote[23] | July 28 – August 28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 50% | – |
EPIC-MRA[24] | August 23–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[25] | August 23–26, 2024 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% | ||
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his campaign and endorses Trump. | ||||||
TIPP Insights[26][A] | August 20–22, 2024 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
Democratic National Convention | ||||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)[27][g] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[28][B] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
Focaldata[29] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 47% | – |
The Bullfinch Group[30][C] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[31][D] | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[32] | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 4% |
New York Times/Siena College[33] | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
619 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 46% | 5% | ||
Navigator Research (D)[34] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[35] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 6% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[36][E] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[37] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | 4% |
SoCal Strategies (R)[38][F] | July 25–26, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Fox News[39] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
Emerson College[40] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||
Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
Public Policy Polling (D)[41][G] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[42] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
New York Times/Siena College[43] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
616 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[44] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[25] | August 23–26, 2024 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% |
702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNN/SSRS[45] | August 23–29, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | 4% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Z to A Research (D)[46][H] | August 23–26, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | 3% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
TIPP Insights[26][A] | August 20–22, 2024 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[28][B] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,093 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
Focaldata[29] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | – |
702 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% | ||
702 (A) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | ||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[47] | August 12–15, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
The Bullfinch Group[30][C] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 5% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[31][D] | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
New York Times/Siena College[33] | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 6% |
619 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 43% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | ||
Navigator Research (D)[34] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[35] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[48] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 771 (LV) | – | 41% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 11% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[37] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | 5% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
Fox News[39] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[49] | July 22–24, 2024 | 512 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | – | 0% | 0% | 8% |
Glengariff Group[50][I] | July 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 41% | 10% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Emerson College[40] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group[51][I] | August 26–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 5% |
EPIC-MRA[24] | August 23–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[52][J] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Ward (R)[27][g] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 43% | 5% | 8% |
Civiqs[53][H] | July 13–16, 2024 | 532 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 46% | 46% | 5% | 3% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[52][J] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
EPIC-MRA[54][K] | July 13–17, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
Emerson College[55][L] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Marketing Resource Group[56] | July 11–13, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 39% | 25%[h] |
Public Policy Polling (D)[41][G] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[57][M] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[58] | July 1–5, 2024 | 694 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Emerson College[59][L] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 12% |
Remington Research Group (R)[60] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
EPIC-MRA[61][K] | June 21–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
Emerson College[62] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||
Mitchell Research[63][N] | June 3, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[64] | May 30–31, 2024 | 723 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
636 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 46% | 7% | ||
Mitchell Research[65][N] | May 20–21, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
KAConsulting (R)[66][O] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
Prime Group[67][P] | May 9–16, 2024 | 482 (RV) | – | 52% | 48% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[42] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[68] | May 6–13, 2024 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
New York Times/Siena College[69] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
616 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% | ||
Emerson College[70] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48%[e] | 52% | – | ||
CBS News/YouGov[71] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,262 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 49% | – |
Fox News[72] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[73] | April 8–15, 2024 | 708 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Marketing Resource Group[74] | April 8–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 42% | 22%[h] |
The Bullfinch Group[75][C] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Spry Strategies (R)[76] | March 25–28, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Wall Street Journal[77] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Echelon Insights[78][Q] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
Emerson College[79] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50%[e] | 50% | – | ||
CNN/SSRS[80] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,097 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
Mitchell Research[81][N] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Quinnipiac University[82] | March 8–12, 2024 | 1,487 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[83] | March 8–12, 2024 | 698 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
North Star Opinion Research (R)[84][R] | February 22–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 13% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[85] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
Emerson College[86] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
EPIC-MRA[87] | February 13–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
Fox News[88] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[89] | January 16–21, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 47% | 7% |
Target Insyght[90] | January 4–10, 2024 | 800 (RV) | – | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Glengariff Group[91][I] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 47% | 14% |
John Zogby Strategies[92] | January 2–4, 2024 | 602 (LV) | – | 44% | 47% | 9% |
CNN/SSRS[93] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[94] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
EPIC-MRA[95] | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[96] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
Emerson College[97] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
New York Times/Siena College[43] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[98] | October 5–10, 2023 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[99] | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 17% |
Marketing Resource Group[100] | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 42% | 22% |
Emerson College[101] | October 1–4, 2023 | 468 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 43% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[102][S] | September 26–27, 2023 | 679 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research[103] | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
EPIC-MRA[104] | August 6–11, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Emerson College[105] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 44% | 13% |
Mitchell Research[106][N] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | 13% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[107][T] | Jul 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 45% | 44% | 9% |
Prime Group[108][P] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
500 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17%[i] | ||
EPIC-MRA[109] | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[110][T] | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (V) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[111][U] | December 6–7, 2022 | 763 (V) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
EPIC-MRA[112] | November 30 – December 6, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
Emerson College[113] | October 28–31, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Emerson College[114] | October 12–14, 2022 | 580 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
EPIC-MRA[115][K] | September 15–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Blueprint Polling (D)[116] | August 15–16, 2022 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
Blueprint Polling (D)[117] | February 1–4, 2022 | 632 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[118][V] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group (R)[119] | July 15–17, 2024 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
EPIC-MRA[54] | July 13–17, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
Emerson College[55][L] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[57][M] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 5%[j] |
YouGov[120][W] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[58] | July 1–5, 2024 | 694 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 7%[j] |
EPIC-MRA[61] | June 21–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
Emerson College[62] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
Mitchell Research[63][N] | June 3, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
Mitchell Research[65][N] | May 20–21, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
KAConsulting (R)[66][O] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 41% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 7%[k] |
Prime Group[67][P] | May 9–16, 2024 | 482 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 2% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[42] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 8% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[68] | May 6–13, 2024 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
New York Times/Siena College[69] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 16%[k] |
616 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 11%[k] | ||
Emerson College[70] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
Fox News[72] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[73] | April 8–15, 2024 | 708 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
Marketing Resource Group[74] | April 8–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
Wall Street Journal[77] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 39% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
Emerson College[79] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
Mitchell Research[81][N] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Quinnipiac University[82] | March 8–12, 2024 | 1,487 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 41% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 6% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[83] | March 8–12, 2024 | 698 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 6% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[85] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
Emerson College[86] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
Fox News[88] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[121] | January 16–21, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[122] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs[53][H] | July 13–16, 2024 | 532 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 43% | 46% | 5% | 6% |
1983 Labs[123] | June 28–30, 2024 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 45% | 5% | 9%[j] |
P2 Insights[124][X] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 43% | 8% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[64] | May 30–31, 2024 | 723 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 39% | 11% | 9% |
636 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 43% | 8% | 5% | ||
Spry Strategies (R)[76] | March 25–28, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 43% | 9% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[125] | March 14–17, 2024 | 616 (LV) | – | 39% | 41% | 6% | 14% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[126] | December 28–30, 2023 | 832 (LV) | – | 37% | 39% | 9% | 15% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 38% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
New York Times/Siena College[128] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 34% | 26% | 9% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[99] | October 7–9, 2023 | 820 (LV) | – | 38% | 40% | 7% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[52][J] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 3% | 3% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[129] | May 2–4, 2024 | 650 (LV) | – | 37% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 12% |
CBS News/YouGov[71] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,262 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 43% | 9% | 3% | 0% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNN/SSRS[80] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,097 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 34% | 40% | 18% | 4% | 4% |
CNN/SSRS[93] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 39% | 20% | 6% | 4% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[130] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 37% | 10% | 2% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[105] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 11% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[41][G] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
Glengariff Group[91][I] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fox News[39] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 46% | 2% |
Glengariff Group[50][I] | July 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[41][G] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 52% | 45% | 3% |
Emerson College/The Hill[131] | Mar 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
Glengariff Group[91][I] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
Marketing Resource Group[100] | October 2–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[52][J] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[41][G] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 39% | 45% | 16% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fox News[39] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[41][G] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[41][G] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fox News[88] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
Glengariff Group[91][I] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
CNN/SSRS[93] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
EPIC-MRA[95] | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 47% | 17% |
New York Times/Siena College[128] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 46% | 18% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West. vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fox News[88] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 26% | 23% | 3% | 3% | 33% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 37% | 25% | 18% | 20% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNN/SSRS[93] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
New York Times/Siena College[128] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 616 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research[103] | September 7–12, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Mitchell Research[106][N] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 31% | 25% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[107][T] | July 8–10, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 44% | 46% | 7% |
EPIC-MRA[109] | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[110][T] | April 17–19, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] | November 27–29, 2023 | 874 (LV) | – | 39% | 30% | 13% | 2% | 15% |
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editIncumbent United States President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary race, held on February 27, 2024.[132]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 625,221 | 81.1% | 115 | 115 | |
Uncommitted | 101,623 | 13.2% | 2 | 2 | |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 22,865 | 3.0% | |||
Dean Phillips | 20,684 | 2.7% | |||
Write-in votes | 178 | <0.1% | |||
Total: | 770,571 | 100% | 117 | 23 | 140 |
Republican primary
editFormer United States President Donald Trump won the Republican primary race, held on February 27, 2024.[132]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 761,163 | 68.12% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
Nikki Haley | 297,124 | 26.59% | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Uncommitted | 33,649 | 3.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 13,456 | 1.20% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 4,794 | 0.43% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 3,702 | 0.33% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Binkley | 2,348 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 1,077 | 0.10% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 1,117,313 | 100.00% | 16 | 0 | 16 |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Candidate has suspended campaign
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 14%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ a b c Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Detroit Free Press
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b c d e f g h Poll commissioned by MIRS
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by Citizens Awareness Project
- ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, a sponsor for the Democratic Party
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
References
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- ^ "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets spot on Michigan's ballot as Natural Law Party nominee". The Detroit News. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
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