The 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Alaska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Alaska has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] This was the first presidential election following the state's adoption of Measure 2, which institutes ranked-choice voting for all statewide general elections.[2]
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While Republicans were still heavily favored to carry the state in 2024, Alaska has shifted closer to the center since the 2010s and is now considered a moderately red state. Trump won Alaska by 13.1%, an improvement from his 10.1% win in 2020, though lower than his 14.7% victory in 2016.
Background
editIncumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for re-election to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee.[3] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4]
Primary elections
editRepublican caucus
editThe Alaska Republican caucuses were held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 9,243 | 87.58% | 29 | 29 | |
| Nikki Haley | 1,266 | 12.00% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 45 | 0.43% | |||
| Total: | 10,554 | 100.00% | 29 | 29 | |
Democratic caucus
editThe Alaska Democratic caucus was held on April 13, 2024. Joe Biden was the only person on the ballot and won the caucus via voice vote with 15 pledged delegates.[6]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | Voice vote | 15 | 15 | ||
| Total: | 15 | 15 | |||
General election
editCandidates
editThe following candidates qualified for the general election:[8]
- Kamala Harris / Tim Walz — Democratic
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan — Independent[a]
- Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat — Libertarian
- Peter Sonski / Lauren Onak — American Solidarity Party
- Jill Stein / Butch Ware — Independent (national Green nominee)[b]
- Randall Terry / Stephen Broden — Constitution
- Donald Trump / JD Vance — Republican
- Cornel West / Melina Abdullah — Aurora
Voters did not have the option to write in candidates for president and vice president. This was the first presidential election in Alaska to use ranked choice (instant runoff) voting.[9]
Independent candidate Cornel West appeared on the ballot as the nominee of the Aurora Party, a party that only exists in Alaska and only has ballot access for presidential elections.[10]
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[11] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[12] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe R | June 13, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] | Safe R | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[15] | Very Likely R | September 15, 2024 |
| CNN[16] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[17] | Safe R | November 3, 2024 |
| 538[18] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
| NBC News[19] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[20] | Solid R | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[21] | Likely R | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[22] | October 20–22, 2024 | 1,703 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 55% | 45% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[23] | October 8–9, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[24][A] | August 30 – September 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 43% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[22] | October 20–22, 2024 | 1,703 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 51% | 43% | 7% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[23] | October 8–9, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 43% | 7% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[25] | September 27–29, 2024 | 1,182 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 43% | 6% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[26] | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 5% | 6% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| John Zogby Strategies[27][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 248 (LV) | – | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| Data for Progress (D)[28] | February 23 – March 2, 2024 | 1,120 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Alaska Survey Research[29] | October 13–18, 2023 | 1,375 (LV) | – | 45% | 37% | 19% |
| Alaska Survey Research[30] | July 18–21, 2023 | 1,336 (LV) | – | 43% | 36% | 21% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[29] | October 13–18, 2023 | 1,375 (LV) | – | 37% | 29% | 17% | 17% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[27][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 248 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[27][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 248 (LV) | – | 50% | 37% | 13% |
Results
edit
| Party | Candidate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±% | |||
| Republican | Donald Trump JD Vance |
184,458 | 54.54% | +1.71% | |
| Democratic | Kamala Harris Tim Walz |
140,026 | 41.41% | -1.36% | |
| Independent | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) |
5,670 | 1.68% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat |
3,040 | 0.90% | -2.38% | |
| Independent | Jill Stein[b] Butch Ware |
2,342 | 0.69% | N/A | |
| Aurora | Cornel West Melina Abdullah |
1,127 | 0.33% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Randall Terry Stephen Broden |
812 | 0.24% | -0.07% | |
| American Solidarity | Peter Sonski Lauren Onak |
702 | 0.21% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 338,177 | 100.00% | |||
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican
edit- Dillingham Census Area (largest city: Dillingham)
- Lake and Peninsula Borough (largest city: Port Alsworth)
- Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
- Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Metlakatla)
Analysis
editEver since Alaska started voting in presidential races in 1960, the only time its electoral votes did not go to the Republican nominee was when incumbent Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in a landslide in 1964. Alaska is the only Republican-leaning state on the West Coast. In 2020, Trump won Alaska, but by 10 percentage points, much less than Republicans in the past like George W. Bush's 26% victory in the state in 2004.
Trump improved in virtually all of the of the state, particularly areas in the north and west with large Alaska Native populations. Harris managed to narrowly retain Anchorage for the Democrats. Key to Trump's victory in the state was landslide margins to his favor in the Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska-Susitna Valley. He even managed to obtain over 80% of the vote in the sparsely populated Southeast Fairbanks Census Area. Harris's best area was Juneau, the state capital. This is the first election since 2008 that Republicans carried a majority of boroughs and census areas.
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign on August 23, after the deadline for independent candidates had passed, and thus remains on the ballot.
- ^ a b The national Green Party nominated Stein and Ware for their presidential ticket. The Green Party of Alaska, a separate entity which was decertified from the national Green Party in 2021, nominated Jasmine Sherman with Tanda BluBear as her running mate. Stein qualified for the ballot by petition and was listed without party affiliation, while Sherman did not make the ballot.
- ^ a b c d e f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nick Begich's campaign for U.S. House and the National Republican Congressional Committee
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Brooks, James (June 20, 2024). "Want to run for president in Alaska? You'll need a few thousand friends". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved July 22, 2023.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ Ruskin, Liz (March 4, 2024). "Trump or Haley? Alaska Republicans vote Tuesday". Alaska Public Radio. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ Bohrer, Becky; Gruver, Mead (April 13, 2024). "Biden wins more delegates in Wyoming and Alaska as he heads toward Democratic nomination". Associated Press. Retrieved April 28, 2024.
- ^ "Alaska Democratic Primary Election Results". Ballotpedia. April 13, 2024. Retrieved March 21, 2024.
- ^ "Candidates". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved August 27, 2024.
- ^ Brooks, James (September 17, 2024). "Alaska's presidential election allows voters to rank up to eight candidates". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (December 14, 2023). "Cornel West, independent candidate, says he will be on Alaska ballot for president in 2024". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
- ^ a b "Alaska Survey Research - October 20-22, 2024". X. October 27, 2024.
- ^ a b "Alaska Survey Research - Oct 8-9, 2024". X. October 15, 2024.
- ^ Downs, James (September 5, 2024). "As Weather Cools, Alaska Race Heats Up - Republican poll shows close race in the Last Frontier". National Journal.
- ^ "Alaska Survey Research - September 27-29, 2024". X. September 30, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Poll Results - Alaska". X. September 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Rep. Peltola Is the Most Popular Politician in Alaska. She Still Faces a Tight Race". Data for Progress. March 14, 2024.
- ^ a b "RELEASE: ALASKA 2024 PRESIDENT" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. October 23, 2023.
- ^ Moore, Ivan (August 14, 2023). "RELEASE: ALASKA POLL RESULTS". X.
- ^ "State of Alaska 2024 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report November 5, 2024 OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2024. Retrieved November 30, 2024.