The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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A Mountain West state with a distinct libertarian streak, Nevada is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, although no Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. Except in 2008, the wins were always in single digits for Democrats; Obama won by less than 7% in 2012 and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for reelection to a second term,[2] but withdrew from the election on July 21, 2024.[3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March.[5]
Despite Donald Trump—the Republican nominee—not carrying Nevada in either of his two presidential campaigns, polling in the state showed Trump in a strong position to win the state against Biden, with Trump leading Biden in all major poll on Nevada's voting intention from October 2023 until Biden's withdrawal in July 2024. However, Kamala Harris, from neighboring California, has polled somewhat better since becoming the Democratic nominee. The state is rated as a tossup by nearly all major news organizations.[6]
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on August 23, 2024, that he was suspending his campaign in swing states, including Nevada. [7]
Voting law changes
editBy 2022, every voter now gets a mail-in ballot unless they opt-out and eligible voters are now automatically registered after common transactions at the DMV.[8]
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[9] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Tossup | August 20, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Tossup | August 30, 2024 |
| CNN[12] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[13] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| 538[14] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| RCP[15] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| CNalysis[16] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[17] | Tossup | May 8, 2024 |
Polling
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | July 24 – September 5, 2024 | September 5, 2024 | 48.0% | 47.4% | 4.6% | Harris +0.6 |
| 270ToWin | August 6–September 5, 2024 | September 5, 2024 | 48.2% | 46.8% | 5.0% | Harris +1.1% |
| 538 | through September 6, 2024 | Septmeber 6, 2024 | 45.9% | 45.3% | 8.8% | Harris +0.6% |
| Silver Bulletin | through September 6, 2024 | September 6, 2024 | 48.6% | 47.9% | 3.5% | Harris +0.7% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through September 6, 2024 | September 6, 2024 | 48.1% | 47.6% | 4.3% | Harris +0.5% |
| Race to the WH | through September 5, 2024 | September 5, 2024 | 48.5% | 47.1% | 4.4% | Harris +1.4% |
| Average | 47.25% | 46.6% | 6.15% | Harris +0.65% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriot Polling[18] | September 1–3, 2024 | 788 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[19] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 5%[c] |
| Emerson College[20] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,168 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 48% | 3%[d] |
| 1,168 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49%[e] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[21] | August 23–26, 2024 | 416 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% | ||
| Fox News[22] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2%[g] |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. ends his presidential campaign. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[23][A] | August 13–18, 2024 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Focaldata[24] | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 46% | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[25] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 677 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 48% | 5% | ||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[26] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[27] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[28][B] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[29] | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 7% |
| Biden announces his withdrawal; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[30] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Republican National Convention begins | ||||||
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[31] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College[32] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College[33] | October 22–November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 50% | 8% | ||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS[34] | August 23–29, 2024 | 976 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[35] | August 25–28, 2024 | 490 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[36] | August 23–26, 2024 | 416 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 2% | 4% | 1% | ||
| Fox News[22] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2%[h] |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[37][A] | August 13–18, 2024 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Focaldata[38] | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 42% | 7% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| 678 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | ||
| 678 (A) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[39] | August 12–15, 2024 | 536 (LV) | – | 42% | 43% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College[40] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| 677 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | ||
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[41] | July 26–August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 42% | 47% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[42] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 470 (LV) | – | 40% | 40% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[29] | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 43% | 7% | – | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[43] | July 22–24, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 43% | 45% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategies 360[44] | August 7–14, 2024 | 350 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 48%' | 42% | 5% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[30] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| Emerson College[45][C] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[46][D] | July 5–12, 2024 | 761 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[47] | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Emerson College[48][C] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[49] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| National Public Affairs[50] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 49% | 12%[i] |
| Emerson College[51] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50%[e] | 50% | – | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[52][E] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Fox News[53] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| The Tyson Group[54][F] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[55] | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| 494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 51% | 6% | ||
| Prime Group[56][G] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[31] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[57] | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College[58] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 51% | 11% | ||
| Emerson College[59] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[60] | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Wall Street Journal[61] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[62][H] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 44% | 51% | 5% |
| Emerson College[63] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[e] | 51% | – | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[64] | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[65] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[66] | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Emerson College[32] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[67] | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
| Emerson College[68] | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D)[69] | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 44% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[70] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Emerson College[72] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 46% | 14% |
| New York Times/Siena College[33] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 52% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[73] | October 5–10, 2023 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| CNN[74] | September 29 – October 3, 2023 | 1,251 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Vote TXT[75] | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 41% | 48% | 11% |
| Prime Group[76][G] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 39% | 39% | 22%[j] | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights[77] | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[78] | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| OH Predictive Insights[79] | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[80][A] | November 8–9, 2022 | 679 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[81][I] | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[82][J] | October 13–17, 2022 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 49% | 14% |
| Emerson College[83] | September 8–10, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Emerson College[84] | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[85] | March 21–24, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[45][C] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8%[k] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[46][D] | July 5–12, 2024 | 761 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 47% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| YouGov[86][K] | July 4–12, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[47] | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 45% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 8%[l] |
| National Public Affairs[50] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College[51] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Fox News[53] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| The Tyson Group[54][L] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Prime Group[56][G] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 10% | 3% | 0% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[31] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[57] | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College[58] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 27% | 41% | 12% | 0% | 2% | 18%[m] |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 30% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 14%[m] | ||
| Emerson College[59] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[60] | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 34% | 48% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Wall Street Journal[61] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 37% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 11%[m] |
| Emerson College[63] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[64] | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 36% | 42% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[65] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 40% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[66] | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
| Emerson College[32] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[67] | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 31% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Emerson College[68] | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[87] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 Insights[88][M] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 37% | 40% | 8% | 15% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[52][E] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 44% | 10% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[55] | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 9% | 7% |
| 494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 46% | 8% | 6% | ||
| Iron Light Intelligence[89][N] | May 17–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 15% | 14% |
| New York Times/Siena College[90] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 38% | 23% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[91] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 35% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 14% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[92] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[92] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Vote TXT[75] | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 36% | 46% | 17% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[77] | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[78] | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 44% | 10% |
| OH Predictive Insights[79] | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 42% | 22% |
| Emerson College[84] | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[81][I] | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[32] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 49% | 19% |
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editThe Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 119,758 | 89.3% | 36 | 36 | |
| None of These Candidates | 7,448 | 5.6% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 4,101 | 3.1% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 811 | 0.6% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 530 | 0.4% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 315 | 0.2% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 264 | 0.2% | |||
| John Haywood | 241 | 0.2% | |||
| Stephen Lyons | 147 | 0.1% | |||
| Superpayaseria Crystalroc | 133 | 0.1% | |||
| Donald Picard | 124 | 0.1% | |||
| Brent Foutz | 93 | 0.1% | |||
| Stephen Alan Leon | 89 | 0.1% | |||
| Mark R. Prascak | 33 | <0.1% | |||
| Total: | 134,087 | 100% | 36 | 13 | 49 |
Republican nominating contests
editAlthough the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary will not be included in determining delegate allocation.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| None of These Candidates[95] | 50,763 | 63.26% |
| Nikki Haley | 24,583 | 30.63% |
| Mike Pence (withdrawn) | 3,091 | 3.85% |
| Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 1,081 | 1.35% |
| John Anthony Castro | 270 | 0.34% |
| Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn) | 200 | 0.25% |
| Donald Kjornes | 166 | 0.21% |
| Heath V. Fulkerson | 95 | 0.12% |
| Total: | 80,249 | 100.00% |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 59,982 | 99.11% | 25 | 1[n] | 26 |
| Ryan Binkley | 540 | 0.89% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 60,522 | 100.00% | 25 | 1 | 26 |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c d With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; None of these candidates with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 1 %
- ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ a b c Lars Mapstead (L) with 2%
- ^ If a candidate wins all of Nevada's delegates, the NRP chair is automatically unbound. He has pledged his support to Trump.
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by BUSR
- ^ Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute
- ^ Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
- ^ Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
- ^ Poll commissioned by League of American Workers
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