The 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Oregon voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
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Democrats have won Oregon in every presidential election starting in 1988, and have consistently done so by double digits starting in 2008. A strongly blue state today, Oregon is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and is predicted to go comfortably for Democrat Kamala Harris (from neighboring California) in 2024.[2]
Primary elections
editRepublican primary
editThe Oregon Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky caucuses.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 294,744 | 91.6% | 31 | 31 | |
Write-in votes | 27,209 | 8.5% | |||
Total: | 321,983 | 100.0% | 31 | 31 |
Democratic primary
editThe Oregon Democratic primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky primary.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 397,702 | 87.1% | 66 | 66 | |
Marianne Williamson | 33,603 | 7.4% | |||
Write-in votes | 25,135 | 5.5% | |||
Total: | 456,440 | 100.0% | 66 | 12 | 78 |
Minor Parties
editMinor Parties in Oregon nominate by nominating delegates to their national conventions, or for the We the People and Independent parties, holding a nominating convention. They are allowed to self-finance a primary, but no party chose to do so. The following candidates' nominations were accepted by the Oregon Secretary of State:
Party | Candidate |
---|---|
Libertarian | Chase Oliver |
We The People | Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. |
Progressive Party | Cornell West |
Pacific Green | Jill Stein |
Constitution Party | Randall Terry |
The Republican Party issued a legal challenge to Libertarian party ballot access that was rejected by the Secretary of State.[5]
General election
editOregon is considered solidly Democratic, and Donald Trump did not pay the $3,500 required for a candidate statement in the ballot handbook, although candidate statements were provided by the Democratic, We the People, Libertarian, and Pacific Green candidates.[6] Notably, Oregon's third-largest party, the Independent Party of Oregon, did not nominate a candidate, although it had cross-nominated Joseph Biden in 2020.[7]
Predictions
editSource | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[8] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[9] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Safe D | August 26, 2024 |
CNalysis[12] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[13] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[14] | Likely D | June 12, 2024 |
538[15] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[16] | Likely D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
editKamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hoffman Research[17] | July 24–26, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hoffman Research[17] | July 24–26, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[18] | October 31 – November 1, 2022 | 975 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
Emerson College[19] | September 30 – October 1, 2022 | 796 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
See also
editNotes
editReferences
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ^ "Oregon Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
- ^ "Oregon Presidential Primary". The AP. June 4, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
- ^ Shumway, Julia (July 29, 2024). "Despite denials, records show Oregon Republican Party trying to keep Libertarians off the ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
- ^ Shumway, Julia (September 3, 2024). "Trump won't appear in Oregon's voters' pamphlet, will still be on ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
- ^ "2024 Nominations of the Independent Party of Oregon".
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ a b "New Poll Shows Harris With 5–Point Lead Over Trump in Oregon". Willamette Week. July 30, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (November 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Independent Candidates' Support Melts As Democrat Tina Kotek Leads Republican Christine Drazan by Four for Governor". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Republican Christine Drazan with Two-Point Lead Over Democrat Tina Kotek for Governorship; Sen. Wyden Holds 19-Point Lead in Re-election Bid". Emerson Polling.