Wikipedia

2024 United States presidential election in Montana

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[2]

2024 United States presidential election in Montana
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout75.38% (of registered voters)[1] Decrease
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 352,079 231,906
Percentage 58.39% 38.46%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Trump once again won Montana by 19.9%, an increase from his 16.4% margin of victory in 2020, but slightly under his 20.4% margin from 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safe red state.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 Montana Democratic presidential primary

The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Democratic primary, June 4, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 94,587 91.1% 20 20
No preference 9,285 8.9%
Total: 103,872 100.0% 20 5 25

Republican primary

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Main article: 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary

The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Republican primary, June 4, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 165,678 90.9%
No Preference 16,570 9.1%
Total: 182,248 100.00% 31 0 31

Green primary

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The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.

Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
No Preference 495 100.00% 4
Total: 495 100.00% 4
Source:[5]

General election

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Candidates

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The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:[6]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[7] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[8] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] Safe R May 30, 2023
CNalysis[11] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[12] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[13] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[14] Solid R September 23, 2024
RCP[15] Likely R June 26, 2024
NBC News[16] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

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Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[17] November 3–4, 2024 752 (LV) ± 4.0% 59% 39% 2%
Emerson College[18][A] October 23–25, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 58% 39% 3%[b]
59%[c] 40% 1%
New York Times/Siena College[19] October 5–8, 2024 656 (RV) ± 4.0% 57% 39% 4%
656 (LV) 57% 40% 3%
RMG Research[20][B] September 12–19, 2024 491 (LV) ± 4.4% 59% 38% 3%[d]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)[21][C] 		August 25–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 56% 41% 3%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
Rasmussen Reports (R)[22][D] August 13–20, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.0% 58% 35% 7%
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins
Emerson College[23] August 5–6, 2024 1,000 (RV)  3.0% 55% 40% 5%
58%[c] 43% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[17] November 3–4, 2024 752 (LV) ± 4.0% 57% 37% – 2% 0% 4%[e]
New York Times/Siena College[19] October 5–8, 2024 656 (RV) ± 4.0% 56% 38% – 0% 0% 6%
656 (LV) 56% 39% – 0% 0% 5%
Remington Research Group (R)[24][E] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 39% – 2% – 3%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings[25] September 30 – October 16, 2024 760 (A) ± 3.6% 52% 34% 3% – 1% 2% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[22][D] August 13–20, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.0% 58% 31% 7% 0% 0% 0% 4%
American Pulse Research & Polling[26][F] August 10–12, 2024 538 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 38% 6% 0% 0% 2% 8%
Emerson College[23] August 5–6, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 54% 39% 5% 0% 0% 0% 2%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
RMG Research[27][B] August 6–14, 2024 540 (RV) ± 4.2% 57% 39% 2% 2%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[28] June 29 – July 1, 2024 570 (LV) ± 4.0% 56% 36% 8%
Torchlight Strategies (R)[29][G] June 22–26, 2024 649 (RV) ± 3.9% 51% 35% 14%[f]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[30][H] June 11–13, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 57% 37% 6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[31][I] June 3–5, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 54% 36% 10%
John Zogby Strategies[32][J] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 59% 34% 7%
Emerson College[33][A] February 26 – March 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 56% 35% 9%
SurveyUSA[34][F] February 12–15, 2024 549 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 29% 20%
Emerson College[35] October 1–4, 2023 447 (RV) ± 4.6% 49% 28% 23%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[36] September 16–19, 2023 1,451 (RV) – 54% 37% 9%
J.L. Partners[37] August 12–17, 2023 741 (LV) – 51% 39% 10%
Echelon Insights[38] August 31 – September 7, 2022 320 (LV) ± 6.6% 49% 36% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[33][A] February 26 – March 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 28% 8% 1% 1% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[36] September 16–19, 2023 1,451 (RV) – 51% 30% 7% 12%
49% 28% 4% 19%[g]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[32][J] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 50% 35% 15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[32][J] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 58% 30% 12%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
J.L. Partners[37] August 12–17, 2023 741 (LV) – 50% 36% 14%
Echelon Insights[38] August 31 – September 7, 2022 320 (LV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% 23%

Results

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2024 United States presidential election in Montana[39]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
352,079 58.39%   1.47%
Democratic
231,906 38.46%   2.09%
We the People
11,825 1.96% N/A
Libertarian
4,275 0.71%   1.82%
Green
2,878 0.48% N/A
Independent
21 0.00% N/A
Total votes 602,984 100.00% N/A

By county

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From Secretary of State of Montana[40]

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Beaverhead 4,058 70.04% 1,543 26.63% 193 3.33% 2,515 43.41% 5,794
Big Horn 2,188 48.95% 2,112 47.25% 170 3.80% 76 1.70% 4,470
Blaine 1,526 50.55% 1,348 44.65% 145 4.80% 178 5.90% 3,019
Broadwater 3,770 78.38% 885 18.40% 155 3.22% 2,885 59.98% 4,810
Carbon 4,719 64.67% 2,353 32.25% 225 3.08% 2,366 32.42% 7,297
Carter 760 88.99% 75 8.78% 19 2.23% 685 80.21% 854
Cascade 22,419 59.65% 14,021 37.31% 1,143 3.04% 8,398 22.34% 37,583
Chouteau 1,885 64.25% 940 32.04% 109 3.71% 945 32.21% 2,934
Custer 4,208 72.54% 1,385 23.88% 208 3.58% 2,823 48.66% 5,801
Daniels 778 81.81% 154 16.19% 19 2.00% 624 65.62% 951
Dawson 3,627 78.20% 894 19.28% 117 2.52% 2,733 58.92% 4,638
Deer Lodge 2,329 47.82% 2,376 48.79% 165 3.39% -47 -0.97% 4,870
Fallon 1,303 86.46% 163 10.82% 41 2.72% 1,140 75.64% 1,507
Fergus 4,965 73.97% 1,522 22.68% 225 3.35% 3,443 51.29% 6,712
Flathead 41,390 65.55% 20,062 31.77% 1,689 2.68% 21,328 33.78% 63,141
Gallatin 32,695 46.77% 34,938 49.98% 2,267 3.25% -2,243 -3.21% 69,900
Garfield 756 94.50% 39 4.88% 5 0.62% 717 89.62% 800
Glacier 1,939 38.18% 2,933 57.76% 206 4.06% -994 -19.58% 5,078
Golden Valley 440 85.44% 67 13.01% 8 1.55% 373 72.43% 515
Granite 1,537 70.63% 579 26.61% 60 2.76% 958 44.02% 2,176
Hill 3,871 56.89% 2,634 38.71% 299 4.40% 1,237 18.18% 6,804
Jefferson 5,544 66.85% 2,516 30.34% 233 2.81% 3,028 36.51% 8,293
Judith Basin 1,051 77.68% 265 19.59% 37 2.73% 786 58.09% 1,353
Lake 9,880 58.42% 6,510 38.50% 521 3.08% 3,370 19.92% 16,911
Lewis and Clark 21,479 51.11% 19,085 45.41% 1,461 3.48% 2,394 5.70% 42,025
Liberty 752 76.11% 214 21.66% 22 2.23% 538 54.45% 988
Lincoln 8,909 75.57% 2,615 22.18% 265 2.25% 6,294 53.39% 11,789
Madison 4,615 71.42% 1,689 26.14% 158 2.44% 2,926 45.28% 6,462
McCone 931 86.04% 129 11.92% 22 2.04% 802 74.12% 1,082
Meagher 888 75.77% 256 21.84% 28 2.39% 632 53.93% 1,172
Mineral 2,049 72.33% 689 24.32% 95 3.35% 1,360 48.01% 2,833
Missoula 27,306 37.52% 42,903 58.95% 2,564 3.53% -15,597 -21.43% 72,773
Musselshell 2,550 84.66% 396 13.15% 66 2.19% 2,154 71.51% 3,012
Park 6,128 52.30% 5,224 44.58% 365 3.12% 904 7.72% 11,717
Petroleum 284 87.65% 37 11.42% 3 0.93% 247 76.23% 324
Phillips 1,753 80.08% 385 17.59% 51 2.33% 1,368 62.49% 2,189
Pondera 1,972 69.14% 782 27.42% 98 3.44% 1,190 41.72% 2,852
Powder River 963 87.07% 131 11.84% 12 1.09% 832 75.23% 1,106
Powell 2,466 75.14% 710 21.63% 106 3.23% 1,756 53.51% 3,282
Prairie 546 79.25% 122 17.71% 21 3.04% 424 61.54% 689
Ravalli 20,617 68.94% 8,485 28.37% 803 2.69% 12,132 40.57% 29,905
Richland 4,387 82.63% 778 14.65% 144 2.72% 3,609 67.98% 5,309
Roosevelt 2,055 52.50% 1,680 42.92% 179 4.58% 375 9.58% 3,914
Rosebud 2,466 66.77% 1,095 29.65% 132 3.58% 1,371 37.12% 3,693
Sanders 6,150 76.19% 1,705 21.12% 217 2.69% 4,445 55.07% 8,072
Sheridan 1,321 69.09% 509 26.62% 82 4.29% 812 42.47% 1,912
Silver Bow 8,110 44.50% 9,386 51.50% 730 4.00% -1,276 -7.00% 18,226
Stillwater 4,699 79.56% 1,056 17.88% 151 2.56% 3,643 61.68% 5,906
Sweet Grass 1,789 75.14% 525 22.05% 67 2.81% 1,264 53.09% 2,381
Teton 2,533 70.99% 927 25.98% 108 3.03% 1,606 45.01% 3,568
Toole 1,571 76.78% 415 20.28% 60 2.94% 1,156 56.50% 2,046
Treasure 367 83.03% 57 12.90% 18 4.07% 310 70.13% 442
Valley 3,019 74.01% 935 22.92% 125 3.07% 2,084 51.09% 4,079
Wheatland 843 77.62% 209 19.24% 34 3.14% 634 58.38% 1,086
Wibaux 463 84.80% 71 13.00% 12 2.20% 392 71.80% 546
Yellowstone 50,460 62.00% 28,392 34.88% 2,541 3.12% 22,068 27.12% 81,393
Totals 352,079 58.39% 231,906 38.46% 18,999 3.15% 120,173 19.93% 602,984
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
 
 

By congressional district

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Trump won both congressional districts.[41][self-published source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 54.21% 42.70% Ryan Zinke
2nd 63.24% 33.60% Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
Troy Downing (119th Congress)

Analysis

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Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana — a sparsely-populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains — has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrowly did so in 1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since 2000.

However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, which was seen as very competitive despite Sheehy's ultimate victory by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via the coattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.

Trump became the first Republican to win predominantly-Native American Big Horn County since Ronald Reagan in 1980. In addition, his 9.5% victory in Roosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in 1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of the Fort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. With Clallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in 1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in 1912. Trump also came within just 47 votes of winning Deer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there since Calvin Coolidge last won the county in 1924.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  3. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  5. ^ "Other" with 3%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  7. ^ Joe Manchin with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  3. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
  7. ^ Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  9. ^ Poll conducted by More Jobs, Less Government which supports Republican candidates
  10. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

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  1. ^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana SoS. Retrieved December 1, 2024.
  2. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  3. ^ "Montana Presidential Primary". AP News. July 3, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  4. ^ "Montana Presidential Primary". AP News. July 3, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 Primary Election - June 4, 2024". Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  6. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  13. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  14. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  16. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  17. ^ a b "Atlas Poll - US Key States - November 4, 2024" (PDF). AtlasIntel. November 4, 2024.
  18. ^ "October 2024 Montana Poll: Sheehy 50%, Tester 46%". Emerson College. October 27, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  19. ^ a b Goldmacher, Shane (October 10, 2024). "Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows". The New York Times.
  20. ^ "Montana: Trump 59% Harris 38%". Napolitan Institute. September 23, 2024.
  21. ^ Bridges, Kate (September 5, 2024). "Sheehy Leads Tester by 16 Points in Montana Senate Race". AARP. doi:10.26419/res.00813.034.
  22. ^ a b "Toplines - NUSA August 2024 Montana". Rasmussen Reports. August 30, 2024.
  23. ^ a b "Montana 2024 Poll: Trump 55%, Harris 40%". Emerson College Polling. August 8, 2024.
  24. ^ "Polling data on Biden-Harris gas car ban and EV mandate policies" (PDF). American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers. October 1, 2024.
  25. ^ "Mountain States Poll - October 2024" (PDF). Montana State University Billings. October 30, 2024.
  26. ^ "Poll shows strong Montana support for Trump over Harris". KULR8. August 14, 2024.
  27. ^ "Montana Senate: Tester 49% Sheehy 44%". Napolitan Institute. August 15, 2024.
  28. ^ Pearce, Tim (July 3, 2024). "Exclusive: Battleground Poll Shows Biden Tanking In Key States After Disastrous Debate". The Daily Wire.
  29. ^ Rogers, John (June 27, 2024). "June 2024 Survey of Likely Montana Voters". X.
  30. ^ "Montana Statewide Poll" (PDF). Public Opinion Strategies. June 13, 2024.
  31. ^ Fabrizio, Tony; Tunis, Travis (June 17, 2024). "MONTANA WANTS TO VOTE GOP – SHEEHY LEADS TESTER". Politico.
  32. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  33. ^ a b "Montana 2024 Poll: U.S. Senate Tester 44%, Sheehy 42%". Emerson College Polling. March 6, 2024.
  34. ^ Lewis, Megan (February 19, 2024). "Poll shows Trump winning Montana over Biden with more support than 2020". Montana Right Now.
  35. ^ "Montana 2024 Poll: Democratic Senator Jon Tester Holds Narrow Lead Over Republican Challenger Tim Sheehy". Emerson College Polling. October 17, 2023.
  36. ^ a b "Pulse of the Nation Report - Voter Attitudes and Concerns Driven by High Costs" (PDF). Future Majority. October 11, 2023.
  37. ^ a b "Montana - Prepared by J.L. Partners" (PDF). Squarespace. August 31, 2023.
  38. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  39. ^ "CERTIFICATE OF ASCERTAINMENT FOR THE ELECTION OF THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORS FOR THE STATE OF MONTANA" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  40. ^ "Montana Secretary of State". electionresults.mt.gov. Retrieved December 1, 2024.
  41. ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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