Wikipedia

2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018.[2] Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections.

2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout64.85% Increase[1]
 
Nominee Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,191,100 1,135,200
Percentage 49.96% 47.61%
Sinema:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McSally:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic

Primaries were held on August 28, 2018,[3] three days after the death of longtime U.S. Senator John McCain.[4] Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day.[5]

The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[6] and McSally conceded that day.[7] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl.

Background

edit

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state had remained Republican, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[8][better source needed]

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[9] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former state senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[10][11][12]

Republican primary

edit

Candidates

edit

On the ballot

edit
 
U.S. Representative Martha McSally at the launch of her senatorial bid in January 2018
 
Former State Senator Kelli Ward at a campaign event prior to the Republican primary in August 2018

Failed to file

edit

Withdrew

edit

Declined

edit

Endorsements

edit
Martha McSally

Federal officials

United States Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Mayors

Individuals

  • Suzanne Klapp, Scottsdale city councilwoman[49]

Organizations

Kelli Ward

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Local officials

U.S. military personnel

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

edit
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Arpaio 		Martha
McSally 		Kelli
Ward 		Other Undecided
Data Orbital[74] August 21–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 18% 48% 22% 1% 8%
OH Predictive Insights[75] August 14–15, 2018 578 ± 4.1% 13% 47% 27% – 12%
OH Predictive Insights[76] July 23–25, 2018 576 ± 4.1% 15% 35% 27% – 23%
Gravis Marketing[77] June 27 – July 2, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 24% 36% 27% – 14%
Emerson College[78] June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 18% 32% 19% 7%[79] 23%
Data Orbital[80] June 19–21, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 17% 38% 23% 2% 21%
Marist College[81] June 17–21, 2018 371 ± 6.7% 21% 30% 28% <1% 21%
OH Predictive Insights[82] June 11–12, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 14% 39% 25% – 22%
Remington (R)[83][A] May 23–24, 2018 2,011 ± 2.3% 25% 42% 23% – 10%
Magellan Strategies (R)[84] April 11–12 and 15, 2018 755 ± 3.6% 26% 36% 25% 6% 7%
OH Predictive Insights[85] April 10–11, 2018 302 ± 5.6% 22% 27% 36% – 15%
Data Orbital[86] January 11–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 22% 31% 19% – 27%
OH Predictive Insights[87] January 9, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 29% 31% 25% – 15%
WPA Intelligence (R)[88][A] November 15–16, 2017 500 ± 4.4% – 38% 36% – 26%
OH Predictive Insights[89] November 9, 2017 323 ± 5.5% – 34% 42% – 24%
Revily (R)[90][B] October 28–31, 2017 380 ± 3.0% – 21% 32% 15%[91] 34%
Hypothetical polling

with Jay Heiler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jay
Heiler 		Martha
McSally 		Matt
Salmon 		David
Schweikert 		John
Shadegg 		Kelli
Ward 		Undecided
Data Orbital[92] October 26–28, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 1% 19% 10% 5% 4% 26% 28%

with Jeff Flake

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Flake 		Jeff
DeWit 		Nicholas
Tutora 		Kelli
Ward 		Other Undecided
GBA Strategies[93] August 30 – September 7, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 31% – – 58% – 11%
JMC Analytics (R)[94] August 26–27, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 21% – 3% 47% – 29%
HighGround Public Affairs[95] August 18–19, 2017 273 ± 5.9% 28% – – 43% 5% 24%
Political Marketing International (R-Ward)[96] February 7, 2017 921 ± 5.0% 23% – – 30% – 47%
Remington Research Group[97] November 15–16, 2016 1,122 ± 2.9% 30% 38% – 15% – 17%
33% 42% – – – 25%
35% 35% – – – 30%

Results

edit
 
Results by county:
  McSally
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Arpaio
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results[98]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha McSally 357,626 54.57%
Republican Kelli Ward 180,926 27.61%
Republican Joe Arpaio 116,555 17.79%
Write-in 191 0.03%
Total votes 655,298 100.00%

Democratic primary

edit

Candidates

edit

On the ballot

edit
 
U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema at a campaign event in October 2018
 
Attorney Deedra Abboud at a campaign event in April 2017

Failed to file

edit

Withdrew

edit
  • Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher[106][107]

Declined

edit

Endorsements

edit
Deedra Abboud

Organizations

Kyrsten Sinema

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

edit
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Deedra
Abboud 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Other Undecided
Data Orbital[168] June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 7% 63% 2% 29%
Emerson College[169] June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 8% 51% 12%[170] 30%

Results

edit
 
Results by county:
  Sinema
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[98]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 404,170 79.25%
Democratic Deedra Abboud 105,800 20.75%
Total votes 509,970 100.00%

Libertarian primary

edit

Candidates

edit

Declared

edit

Removed

edit

Green primary

edit

Candidates

edit

Declared

edit

Removed

edit

Results

edit
 
Results by county:
  Green
  •   90-100%
No votes
  •   
Green primary results[98]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Angela Green (write-in) 389 100.00%
Total votes 389 100.00%

General election

edit

Debates

edit
 
Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate

Predictions

edit
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[174] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[175] Tilt D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[176] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[177] Tossup October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[178] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[179] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2018
Daily Kos[180] Tossup October 26, 2018
Fox News[181] Tossup October 30, 2018

Endorsements

edit
Martha McSally (R)

U.S. executive branch Officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State officials

Local-level officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Former U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Fundraising

edit
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D) $19,287,249 $20,249,341 $1,301,542
Martha McSally (R) $16,211,836 $13,688,178 $2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[225]

Polling

edit
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Martha
McSally (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Angela
Green (G) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[226] November 4–5, 2018 1,217 ± 2.8% 47% 45% – 2% 6%
HarrisX[227] November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 49% – – –
HarrisX[228] November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 47% – – –
OH Predictive Insights[229] November 2–3, 2018 631 ± 3.9% 49% 48% 0% – 1%
Emerson College[230] November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 48% 49% 2% – 2%
HarrisX[231] November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 46% – – –
Research Co.[232] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% 45% – 1% 10%
HarrisX[233] October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 44% – – –
Gravis Marketing[234] October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% 47% 46% – – 7%
HarrisX[235] October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 42% – – –
The Trafalgar Group (R)[236] October 30 – November 1, 2018 2,166 ± 2.1% 47% 50% – 2% 1%
HarrisX[237] October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42% – – –
Vox Populi Polling[238] October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 48% 52% – – –
HarrisX[239] October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 48% 43% – – –
FOX News[240] October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 46% 46% – 3% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% – 4% 6%
CNN/SSRS[241] October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 47% 51% – 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 45% 48% – 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs[242] October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 4% – 5%
NBC News/Marist College[243] October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 44% 47% 6% <1% 3%
44% 50% – 2% 4%
793 RV ± 4.4% 43% 45% 7% <1% 5%
43% 49% – 2% 6%
CBS News/YouGov[244] October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 44% 47% – 3% 5%
Ipsos[245] October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% 48% 46% – 3% 3%
OH Predictive Insights[246] October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 52% 45% 1% – 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[247] October 15–19, 2018 606 ± 4.2% 48% 46% 1% – 6%
Data Orbital[248] October 16–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 47% 3% 1% 8%
Change Research (D)[249] October 9–10, 2018 783 – 44% 44% – – 11%
CBS News/YouGov[250] October 2–5, 2018 898 – 44% 47% – 3% 6%
OH Predictive Insights[251] October 1–2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 41% 4% – 8%
FOX News[252] September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 45% 47% – 2% 6%
806 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% – 2% 8%
Vox Populi Polling[253] September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% 52% 49% – – –
Suffolk University[254] September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 2% 0% 11%
Latino Decisions[255] September 10–25, 2018 463 LV – 41% 47% – – 11%
610 RV – 37% 43% – – 17%
Emerson College[256] September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 39% 45% – 4% 13%
NBC News/Marist College[257] September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 43% 45% 6% <1% 6%
45% 48% – <1% 7%
763 RV ± 4.2% 41% 44% 6% <1% 8%
44% 47% – <1% 9%
CNN/SSRS[258] September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 43% 50% – 0% 3%
854 RV ± 4.1% 41% 48% – 1% 6%
Ipsos[259] September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 44% 47% – 4% 5%
TargetSmart (D)[260] September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 46% 51% – 1% 3%
FOX News[261] September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 44% 47% – 2% 5%
801 RV ± 3.5% 42% 46% – 3% 7%
Gravis Marketing[262] September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% 49% 48% – – 3%
OH Predictive Insights[263] September 5–6, 2018 597 ± 4.0% 49% 46% – – 6%
Data Orbital[264] September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 42% 46% – 2%[265] 9%
OH Predictive Insights[76] July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 48% – – 8%
Gravis Marketing[266] June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 39% 43% – – 19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[267] June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 44% 48% – – 7%
Emerson College[268] June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 32% 40% – 9% 20%
CBS News/YouGov[269] June 19–22, 2018 869 LV – 37% 45% – 7% 10%
998 RV ± 3.7% 34% 41% – 8% 14%
NBC News/Marist College[270] June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% 49% – 2% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[271] April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 42% 51% – – 7%
OH Predictive Insights[272] April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 48% – – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[273][C] March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 41% 46% – – 13%
OH Predictive Insights[89] November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 45% 46% – – 9%
Revily (R)[90][B] October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 29% 33% – – 37%
Hypothetical polling

with Kelli Ward

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kelli
Ward (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[76] July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8%
Gravis Marketing[274] June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 37% 46% – 17%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[267] June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 41% 52% – 7%
Emerson College[275] June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 26% 43% 8% 23%
YouGov[276] June 19–22, 2018 867 LV ± 3.7% 38% 46% 6% 9%
996 RV 35% 43% 7% 14%
Marist College[81] June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% 48% 2% 12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[271] April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 43% 51% – 6%
OH Predictive Insights[272] April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 50% – 10%
OH Predictive Insights[89] November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11%
Revily (R-Ward)[277] October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 34% 33% – 33%
HighGround Public Affairs[278] October 23–26, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 27% 34% – 39%
HighGround Public Affairs[95] August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 31% 32% – 38%

with Joe Arpaio

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Arpaio (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[76] July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 54% – 10%
Gravis Marketing[279] June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 33% 52% – 14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[267] June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 34% 57% – 9%
Emerson College[280] June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 30% 54% 8% 9%
YouGov[276] June 19–22, 2018 868 LV ± 3.7% 29% 49% 13% 8%
996 RV 28% 45% 13% 11%
Marist College[81] June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 32% 57% 2% 9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[271] April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 32% 61% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights[272] April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 33% 59% – 8%

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Morning Consult[281] June 29 – July 9, 2018 1,641 ± 2.0% 35% 42% 23%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[282] March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 47% 45% 8%

with Jeff Flake

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Flake (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Undecided
GBA Strategies[93] August 30 – September 7, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 40% 47% 13%
HighGround Public Affairs[95] August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 33% 41% 27%
Public Policy Polling[283] May 13–15, 2016 896 ± 3.3% 38% 36% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Flake (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)[284] July 31 – August 1, 2017 704 ± 2.0% 31% 47% 22%

with Matt Salmon

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Salmon (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Undecided
Revily (R-Ward)[277] October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 30% 32% 38%

Results

edit

The race was too close to call on election day.[285] On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted.[286] On November 8, Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead.[287] Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[288] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day.[289] The results were certified on December 3, 2018.[290]

This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.[289] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona.[291]

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 1,191,100 49.96% +3.76%
Republican Martha McSally 1,135,200 47.61% −1.62%
Green Angela Green 57,442 2.41% N/A
Write-in 566 0.02% N/A
Total votes 2,384,308 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican
By county
County[292] Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic 		Martha McSally
Republican 		Angela Green
Green 		Write-in Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Apache 16,298 64.97 7,810 31.13 961 3.83 18 0.07 8,488 33.83 25,087
Cochise 17,383 38.16 26,929 59.12 1,212 2.66 25 0.05 -9,546 -20.96 45,549
Coconino 34,240 61.94 19,249 34.82 1,757 3.18 34 0.06 14,991 27.12 55,280
Gila 7,643 37.28 12,180 59.42 674 3.29 2 0.01 -4,537 -22.13 20,499
Graham 3,368 31.76 6,870 64.77 363 3.42 5 0.05 -3,502 -33.02 10,606
Greenlee 1,042 40.59 1,416 55.16 108 4.21 1 0.04 -374 -14.57 2,567
La Paz 1,609 31.72 3,265 64.36 199 3.92 0 0.00 -1,656 -32.64 5,073
Maricopa 732,761 50.96 672,505 46.77 32,371 2.25 315 0.02 60,256 4.19 1,437,952
Mohave 19,214 26.88 50,209 70.25 2,027 2.84 19 0.03 -30,995 -43.37 71,469
Navajo 16,624 45.37 18,767 51.22 1,238 3.38 11 0.03 -2,143 -5.85 36,640
Pima 221,242 56.65 160,550 41.11 8,710 2.23 66 0.02 60,692 15.54 390,568
Pinal 50,395 42.93 63,782 54.33 3,183 2.71 35 0.03 -13,387 -11.40 117,395
Santa Cruz 9,241 68.51 3,828 28.38 418 3.10 1 0.01 5,413 40.13 13,488
Yavapai 40,160 37.06 65,308 60.26 2,870 2.65 30 0.03 -25,148 -23.21 108,368
Yuma 19,880 45.42 22,532 51.48 1,351 3.09 4 0.01 -2,652 -6.06 43,767
Totals 1,191,100 49.96 1,135,200 47.61 57,442 2.41 566 0.02 55,900 2.34 2,384,308

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

edit

Sinema won 5 of 9 congressional districts.[293]

District Sinema McSally Representative
1st 50.64% 46.47% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 52.63% 45.23% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 63.9% 32.93% Raúl Grijalva
4th 32.85% 64.49% Paul Gosar
5th 42.35% 55.54% Andy Biggs
6th 47.4% 50.81% David Schweikert
7th 75.43% 21.19% Ruben Gallego
8th 42.88% 54.89% Debbie Lesko
9th 61.37% 36.41% Greg Stanton

Aftermath

edit

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain.[294] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019,[295] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties. Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.[citation needed]

Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress, and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly in that special election.[296][297]

Sinema would later leave the Democratic Party to become an independent in December 2022, although she would continue to caucus with them in the Senate until the end of her term.

Voter demographics

edit
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Sinema McSally No
answer 		% of
voters
Gender
Men 49 49 2 47
Women 51 47 2 53
Age
18–24 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
25–29 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
30–39 years old 57 39 4 17
40–49 years old 50 48 2 17
50–64 years old 44 55 1 29
65 and older 51 48 1 29
Race
White 45 53 2 75
Black N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino 68 30 2 18
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 3
Race and gender
White men 42 55 3 34
White women 47 52 1 41
Black men N/A N/A N/A 1
Black women N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino men 66 32 2 9
Latina women 70 28 2 9
Others N/A N/A N/A 4
Education
High school or less 50 46 4 25
Some college education 45 54 1 28
Associate Degree 43 53 4 10
Bachelor's Degree 52 47 3 23
Advanced degree 62 37 1 14
Education and race
White college graduates 55 45 N/A 27
White no college degree 39 58 3 48
Non-white college graduates 72 27 1 9
Non-white no college degree 65 33 2 16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 56 44 N/A 15
White women without college degrees 42 56 2 26
White men with college degrees 53 47 N/A 12
White men without college degrees 35 61 4 22
Non-whites 68 31 1 25
Military service
Veteran 38 59 3 14
Non-veteran 54 45 1 86
Income
Under $30,000 62 34 4 15
$30,000-$49,999 63 36 1 18
$50,000-$99,999 48 49 3 33
$100,000-$199,999 41 58 1 24
Over $200,000 44 56 N/A 9
Party ID
Democrats 97 3 N/A 32
Republicans 12 86 2 38
Independents 50 47 3 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 94 6 N/A 14
Democratic women 99 1 N/A 17
Republican men 6 91 3 15
Republican women 16 83 1 23
Independent men 50 47 3 18
Independent women 50 47 3 13
Ideology
Liberals 94 6 N/A 22
Moderates 63 35 2 38
Conservatives 14 84 2 40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 53 44 3 15
No 48 50 2 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 77 20 3 42
Immigration 16 83 1 31
Economy 39 60 1 18
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 7
Area type
Urban 60 39 1 43
Suburban 44 54 2 51
Rural N/A N/A N/A 6
Source: CNN[298]

Notes

edit

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by McSally's campaign.
  2. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Ward's campaign.
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care, an Affordable Care Act advocacy group, and is affiliated with Democratic candidates.

References

edit
  1. ^ a b "2018 1203 Signed Official Statewide Canvass.pdf" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on December 7, 2018. Retrieved December 6, 2018.
  2. ^ "McSally Has Early Lead Over Sinema in US Senate Race; Kirkpatrick Ahead of Marquez Peterson in CD2". Tucson Weekly. November 6, 2018.
  3. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (August 28, 2018). "Martha McSally, Kyrsten Sinema win Arizona's Senate primary races". The Arizona Republic.
  4. ^ Elliott, Philip (August 26, 2018). "John McCain, an American Original, Dies at Age 81". Time.
  5. ^ Daugherty, Owen (November 1, 2018), "Arizona's Green Party candidate drops out of Senate race and endorses Kyrsten Sinema", The Hill, archived from the original on November 5, 2018, retrieved November 4, 2018
  6. ^ Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Wins Arizona Senate Seat. NPR. November 12, 2018.
  7. ^ Chamberlain, Samuel (November 12, 2018). "Republican Martha McSally concedes Arizona Senate race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema". Fox News. Retrieved November 13, 2018.
  8. ^ "2016 Presidential Election Headquarters | Politics | Fox News". Fox News. Archived from the original on July 30, 2017. Retrieved July 29, 2017.
  9. ^ Feldscher, Kyle (October 24, 2017). "Jeff Flake rips Trump while announcing his retirement in remarkable speech on Senate floor". The Washington Examiner. Washington, D.C. Archived from the original on October 25, 2017. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  10. ^ a b Kimbel-Sannit, Arren (March 11, 2017). "Flake likely to face challenges from all sides, vows to be ready". Arizona Daily Star. Archived from the original on March 13, 2017. Retrieved March 12, 2017.
  11. ^ "Hey, Democrats, Maybe You Should Run Someone Against Jeff Flake". FiveThirtyEight. July 12, 2017. Archived from the original on July 21, 2017. Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  12. ^ "Trump's Big 2018 Gamble". Bloomberg.com. July 17, 2017. Archived from the original on July 18, 2017. Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  13. ^ Nelson, Steven (August 28, 2017). "Joe Arpaio may challenge Jeff Flake for Arizona Senate seat: Exclusive". The Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on August 28, 2017. Retrieved August 28, 2017.
  14. ^ a b c d e f Robillard, Kevin (October 25, 2017). "Flake retirement could help GOP save the Senate". Politico. Archived from the original on October 25, 2017. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
  15. ^ Drucker, David M. "Joe Arpaio running for Senate in Arizona". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on January 9, 2018. Retrieved January 9, 2018.
  16. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Arizona Election Information". apps.arizona.vote. Archived from the original on May 15, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2018.
  17. ^ a b c d "Arizona Election Information". apps.arizona.vote. Archived from the original on September 23, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  18. ^ Arizona Rep. McSally tells colleagues she’ll run for Senate Archived November 13, 2017, at the Wayback Machine, The Washington Post, Bob Christie (AP), November 7, 2017. Retrieved November 7, 2017.
  19. ^ "McSally launches Senate campaign in heated Arizona contest". ABC15 Arizona. Associated Press. January 12, 2018. Archived from the original on January 12, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
  20. ^ Min Kim, Seung (October 27, 2016). "Kelli Ward aims to oust Flake in 2018". Politico. Archived from the original on October 28, 2016. Retrieved October 27, 2016.
  21. ^ Bowman, Bridget (October 27, 2016). "Flake Gets 2018 Primary Challenge". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 28, 2016. Retrieved October 27, 2016.
  22. ^ a b De Ford, Josh (October 30, 2016). "Ward Eyes Sen. Flake's lack of "War Hero Status" with 2018 Senate launch". Outset. Archived from the original on November 5, 2016. Retrieved November 4, 2016.
  23. ^ Roth, R. (September 25, 2017). "Former "Revenge Porn Website" Mastermind Declares Run For Arizona Senate". Arizona Daily Independent. Archived from the original on October 3, 2017. Retrieved October 3, 2017.
  24. ^ "DIEGEL, CHRISTIAN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Archived from the original on December 27, 2017. Retrieved December 17, 2017.
  25. ^ "GRIFFIN, MICHELLE MARIE DR PHD - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Archived from the original on September 13, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  26. ^ "REDD, SHAWN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Archived from the original on September 25, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  27. ^ Nowicki, Dan (August 23, 2017). "By Donald Trump standards, Sen. Jeff Flake gets off easy at Phoenix rally". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  28. ^ Nowicki, Dan (October 24, 2017). "Arizona's Jeff Flake announces he will not seek re-election to U.S. Senate". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  29. ^ Isenstadt, Alex (October 24, 2017). "Flake announces retirement as he rebukes Trump". Politico. Archived from the original on October 24, 2017. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  30. ^ a b Isenstadt, Alex (July 17, 2017). "White House squeezes Jeff Flake". Politico. Archived from the original on July 17, 2017. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  31. ^ "Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer not interested in running for Flake's seat". ktar.com. October 26, 2017. Archived from the original on October 8, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  32. ^ Nowicki, Dan (November 29, 2017). "President Trump to nominate Arizona State Treasurer @JeffDeWitAZ to be @NASA's chief financial officer. DeWit had been mentioned for months as a possible #AZSEN candidate.pic.twitter.com/HjWWIR92m2". @dannowicki. Retrieved November 30, 2017.
  33. ^ "Arizona Rep. Franks isn't interested in running for Flake's Senate seat". KTAR News. August 31, 2017. Archived from the original on October 25, 2017. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  34. ^ a b Weaver, Al; Drucker, David M. (October 24, 2017). "Arizona Republicans eye Senate race as Jeff Flake announces exit". The Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on October 25, 2017. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
  35. ^ Duda, Jeremy (January 30, 2017). "Gosar eyes primary challenge to Flake". Arizona Capitol Times. Archived from the original on January 31, 2017. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
  36. ^ "Morning Digest: Christie's 17 percent approval could cause some traffic problems for Jersey GOP". Daily Kos Elections. February 1, 2017. Archived from the original on February 1, 2017. Retrieved February 1, 2017.
  37. ^ a b Bradner, Eric (October 25, 2017). "How Jeff Flake's retirement could help Republicans keep his Senate seat". CNN. Archived from the original on October 25, 2017. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
  38. ^ Manchester, Julia (October 25, 2017). "GOP Rep. Gosar rules out bid for Flake's seat". The Hill. Archived from the original on October 26, 2017. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
  39. ^ Isenstadt, Alex (January 25, 2017). "Mini-Trumps look to replicate electoral success". Politico. Archived from the original on January 25, 2017. Retrieved January 25, 2017.
  40. ^ a b Nowicki, Dan; Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (October 24, 2017). "'Cascading effect': Sen. Jeff Flake's announcement jolts political world, Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
  41. ^ "The 5 Most Critical US Senate Elections of 2018". observer.com. December 28, 2017. Archived from the original on August 18, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  42. ^ Isenstadt, Alex (August 17, 2017). "Trump aides worry he hurt hopes of defeating Flake". Politico. Archived from the original on August 17, 2017. Retrieved August 18, 2017.
  43. ^ Gomez, Henry J. (August 17, 2017). "Donald Trump Just Raised Expectations That He'll Campaign Against Jeff Flake". BuzzFeed News. Archived from the original on August 18, 2017. Retrieved August 18, 2017.
  44. ^ Mike Pence. "Big night for @MarthaMcSally in Arizona! Martha served our nation with distinction in the @usairforce & she will be a great addition to the US Senate helping enact the @realDonaldTrump agenda. Get out and support Martha in November!". Twitter.
  45. ^ a b "Former Arizona Senator Jon Kyl endorses Martha McSally for US Senate". McSally for Senate. August 2, 2018. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved August 2, 2018.
  46. ^ a b Squires, Michael (December 22, 2017). "Majority Leader Mitch McConnell lets slip Rep. Martha McSally's big Senate secret". azcentral.com.
  47. ^ a b Bluestein, Greg (August 24, 2018). "David Perdue aims to shore up embattled Senate candidates". Politically Georgia. Archived from the original on August 26, 2018. Retrieved September 6, 2018.
  48. ^ a b "Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich Endorses Martha McSally for US Senate". McSally for Senate. July 30, 2018. Archived from the original on July 30, 2018. Retrieved July 30, 2018.
  49. ^ a b c "WATCH: McSally For Senate Launches Women's Coalition". McSally for Senate. August 18, 2018. Archived from the original on August 24, 2018. Retrieved August 23, 2018.
  50. ^ a b Vaughn Hillyard (May 8, 2018). "New: Fmr AZ Gov. Jan Brewer tells NBC she is endorsing U.S. Rep. Martha McSally for the U.S. Senate. Brewer will be a "special guest" alongside McSally at a campaign fundraiser in Glendale on May 18". Twitter.
  51. ^ a b "McSally launches Senate campaign in heated Arizona contest". tucson.com. January 12, 2018. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  52. ^ a b "Scottsdale Mayor Jim Lane Endorses Martha McSally for US Senate". McSally for Senate. August 2, 2018. Archived from the original on August 4, 2018. Retrieved August 3, 2018.
  53. ^ McSally For Senate. "Polls are open! I would be honored to have your vote. #AZSen". Twitter.
  54. ^ a b "Maggie's List Proudly Endorses Martha McSally for U.S Senate". Maggie's List. January 12, 2018. Archived from the original on February 2, 2018. Retrieved February 4, 2018.
  55. ^ a b "National Border Patrol Council Endorses Martha McSally For US Senate". McSally for Senate. August 8, 2018. Archived from the original on August 9, 2018. Retrieved August 8, 2018.
  56. ^ a b "RightNOW announces new endorsements for 2018". RightNOW Women PAC. May 29, 2018. Archived from the original on August 26, 2018. Retrieved August 25, 2018.
  57. ^ a b Students For Trump. ".@MarthaMcSally keeps Arizona red. Arizonans should vote for her in the primary!". Twitter.
  58. ^ "Martha McSally". VIEW PAC. Archived from the original on August 26, 2018. Retrieved August 25, 2018.
  59. ^ "Winning For Women Endorses Martha McSally for U.S. Senate in First Round of Candidate Endorsements". winningforwomen.com. February 1, 2018. Archived from the original on September 27, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  60. ^ Al Weaver (November 1, 2017). "Rand Paul becomes first senator to endorse Kelli Ward in Arizona Senate race". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on November 3, 2017. Retrieved November 4, 2017.
  61. ^ Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (July 17, 2018). "Paul Gosar endorses Kelli Ward for Senate, attacks Martha McSally's GOP credentials". azcentral. AZ Republic.
  62. ^ Dan Nowicki (January 19, 2018). "Immigration hard-liner Steve King endorses Kelli Ward in Arizona's U.S. Senate race". The Arizona Republic.
  63. ^ "U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher endorses Dr. Kelli Ward for United States Senate". Kelli Ward for US Senate. January 23, 2018. Archived from the original on January 24, 2018. Retrieved January 23, 2018.
  64. ^ "Ward for Senate Releases Growing List of Arizona Endorsements". kelliward.com. Archived from the original on July 6, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  65. ^ "Jessie Jane Duff on Twitter".
  66. ^ Rosenblatt, Dillon (August 17, 2018). "Kelli Ward Going on Bus Tour With Right-Wing Celebs to Boost Senate Campaign". Phoenix New Times. Archived from the original on August 18, 2018. Retrieved August 20, 2018.
  67. ^ Sebastian Gorka [@SebGorka] (September 27, 2017). "On it" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  68. ^ Mallory Shelbourne (August 23, 2017). "Hannity backs Kelli Ward in primary against Flake". The Hill. Archived from the original on August 27, 2017. Retrieved August 28, 2017.
  69. ^ "Tomi Lahren on Twitter". twitter.com. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  70. ^ "Austin Petersen twitter". twitter.com. Retrieved December 20, 2017.
  71. ^ "CITIZENS FOR TRUMP PROUDLY ENDORSES DR. KELLI WARD FOR U.S. SENATE IN ARIZONA". Citizens For Trump. September 5, 2017. Archived from the original on October 8, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2018.
  72. ^ Katie Glueck (October 16, 2017). "Pro-Trump group endorses in key Senate primaries". McClatchy DC Bureau. Archived from the original on October 17, 2017. Retrieved October 18, 2017.
  73. ^ Tim Macy (November 2, 2017). "We Need a Fighter in the US Senate". Gun Owners of America. Archived from the original on November 7, 2017. Retrieved November 4, 2017.
  74. ^ Data Orbital Archived August 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  75. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  76. ^ a b c d OH Predictive Insights
  77. ^ Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  78. ^ Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  79. ^ Christian Diegel with 3%, Craig Brittain and Michelle Griffin with 2%, Nicholas Tutora with 0%
  80. ^ Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  81. ^ a b c Marist College
  82. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  83. ^ Remington (R)
  84. ^ Magellan Strategies (R)
  85. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  86. ^ Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  87. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  88. ^ WPA Intelligence (R)
  89. ^ a b c OH Predictive Insights
  90. ^ a b Revily (R)
  91. ^ Matt Salmon 9%, Craig Brittain 4%, Nicholas Tutora 2%
  92. ^ Data Orbital
  93. ^ a b GBA Strategies
  94. ^ JMC Analytics (R)
  95. ^ a b c HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  96. ^ Political Marketing International (R-Ward)
  97. ^ Remington Research Group
  98. ^ a b c "State of Arizona Official Canvass" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 12, 2018. Retrieved September 12, 2018.
  99. ^ Nowicki, Dan (April 10, 2017). "Democrat Deedra Abboud announces U.S. Senate bid". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved April 10, 2017.
  100. ^ Robillard, Kevin (September 28, 2017). "Democratic Rep. Sinema launches Arizona senate bid". Politico. Archived from the original on September 29, 2017. Retrieved September 29, 2017.
  101. ^ Odom, Christopher (September 21, 2017). "Arizona Pilot Runs 4 Senate". aero-news.net. Archived from the original on September 26, 2017. Retrieved September 25, 2017.
  102. ^ "JETTE, MATT DR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Archived from the original on September 25, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  103. ^ "About David Ruben for Senate". March 1, 2018. Archived from the original on April 18, 2018. Retrieved April 17, 2018.
  104. ^ Abramson, Alana (July 19, 2017). "'Hang in There.' Muslim Senate Candidate Gets Support From Republican Incumbent". Time. Archived from the original on July 19, 2017. Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  105. ^ Nowicki, Dan (July 15, 2017). "How much re-election trouble is Sen. Jeff Flake really in?". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved July 16, 2017.
  106. ^ "Jim Moss is Exiting the Race for Senator Jeff Flake's Seat". Silver Belt. Archived from the original on November 9, 2017. Retrieved November 9, 2017.
  107. ^ "Democrat Jim Moss Drops Out Of Arizona US Senate Race". Associated Press. Archived from the original on November 9, 2017. Retrieved November 9, 2017.
  108. ^ Garcia, Eric (June 19, 2017). "Doctor who Treated Giffords Weighing Run Against Flake". Roll Call. Archived from the original on June 23, 2017. Retrieved June 23, 2017.
  109. ^ a b Nowicki, Dan (June 29, 2017). "Uproar over Senate health bill puts Flake's re-election in focus". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  110. ^ a b c Smith, Dylan (September 29, 2017). "Friese ices Senate run after Sinema announcement". Tucson Sentinel. Archived from the original on September 29, 2017. Retrieved September 29, 2017.
  111. ^ Kurtz, Josh (November 10, 2016). "Senate map looks difficult for Dems, but Trump factor unknown". E&E News. Archived from the original on March 28, 2017. Retrieved March 27, 2017.
  112. ^ Hansen, Ronald J. (July 20, 2017). "Kirkpatrick joins the list of Democrats running for McSally's congressional seat". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved July 20, 2017.
  113. ^ Martin, Jonathan; Burns, Alexander (June 23, 2017). "Republican Senator Vital to Health Bill's Passage Won't Support It". The New York Times. Archived from the original on June 27, 2017. Retrieved June 27, 2017.
  114. ^ Boehm, Jessica (October 5, 2017). "Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton announces run for Congress". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
  115. ^ a b c "Democratic primary candidate for U.S. Senate Deedra Abboud". tucson.com. July 17, 2018. Retrieved November 10, 2018.
  116. ^ "Endorsements (2018)". www.alliance4action.org. Archived from the original on November 11, 2018. Retrieved November 10, 2018.
  117. ^ "Candidates". Justice Democrats. Archived from the original on June 27, 2018. Retrieved December 18, 2017.
  118. ^ "The People For Bernie Sanders". www.facebook.com. February 10, 2018.
  119. ^ "The Voter's Self Defense System". Vote Smart. Archived from the original on September 26, 2017. Retrieved November 10, 2018.
  120. ^ "Who endorses Deedra Abboud for U.S. Senate?". tucson.com. July 25, 2018. Retrieved November 10, 2018.
  121. ^ a b Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (June 28, 2018). "Joe Biden endorses Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate". AZCentral.com.
  122. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Sen. Cory Booker (D. NJ) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Defeat Convicted Felon Joe Arpaio (R)". Daily Kos. January 10, 2018. Archived from the original on January 12, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
  123. ^ a b Catherine Cortez Masto [@CatherineForNV] (September 30, 2017). ".@kyrstensinema grew up homeless. She knows value of hard work. Now, she wants every Arizonan to have a fair shot. I'm proud to support her!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  124. ^ a b c d e f g h "Who endorses Kyrsten Sinema (D) for U.S. Senate?". Arizona Daily Star. Archived from the original on July 28, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  125. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D. IL) Wastes No Time Helping Kyrsten Sinema (D) Flip This Seat Blue". Daily Kos. October 26, 2017. Archived from the original on November 7, 2017. Retrieved November 2, 2017.
  126. ^ a b "AZ, NV & TX-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats In The West Flip The Senate". Daily Kos. March 29, 2018. Archived from the original on March 30, 2018. Retrieved March 30, 2018.
  127. ^ a b Kirsten Gillibrand [@SenGillibrand] (October 6, 2017). "I need Kyrsten in the Senate with me fighting for our values. This is critical: Will you send her your support?" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  128. ^ a b Kamala Harris [@KamalaHarris] (January 9, 2018). "Disgraced sheriff Joe Arpaio, convicted of violating a court order to stop illegally detaining and terrorizing the Latino community, is running for U.S. Senate in Arizona. Donate to kyrstensinema, a champion for all Arizonans:" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  129. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D. HI) Helps Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) Flip This Seat From Red To Blue". Daily Kos. June 12, 2018.
  130. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Amy Klobuchar (D. MN) Sticks It To Mike Pence By Helping Sinema (D) Beat Arpaio (R)". Daily Kos. May 3, 2018.
  131. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D. VT) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Punish The GOP For Their Tax Scam Bill". Daily Kos. December 8, 2017. Archived from the original on January 12, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
  132. ^ a b "AZ & NV-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Helps These Two Women Take Back The U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. December 13, 2017. Archived from the original on January 12, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
  133. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Sen. Chris Murphy (D. CT) Wastes No Time Helping Kyrsten Sinema (D) Defeat Joe Arpaio (R)". Daily Kos. January 9, 2018. Archived from the original on January 12, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
  134. ^ a b "TX, NV & AZ-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D. WA) Helps Democrats Make Big Gains In The West". Daily Kos. December 26, 2017. Archived from the original on January 12, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
  135. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Hits Mike Pence By Helping Kyrsten Sinema (D) Defeat Joe Arpaio (R)". Daily Kos. May 5, 2018.
  136. ^ a b "Report: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema to get Schumer's support in 2018 Senate race". KTAR.com. September 11, 2017. Archived from the original on September 30, 2017. Retrieved September 30, 2017.
  137. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Sen. Ron Wyden (D. OR) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Get Ready To Defeat Jeff Flake (R)". Daily Kos. October 17, 2017. Archived from the original on October 18, 2017. Retrieved October 18, 2017.
  138. ^ a b Kyrsten Sinema [@KyrstenSinema] (November 6, 2017). "Grateful for your support, @RonBarberAZ" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  139. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Joseph Flaherty (November 6, 2017). "Who's Afraid of Endorsing Kyrsten Sinema?". Phoenix New Times. Archived from the original on November 7, 2017. Retrieved November 7, 2017.
  140. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D. MA) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Take Down Racist Joe Arpaio (R)". Daily Kos. February 25, 2018. Archived from the original on February 27, 2018. Retrieved February 27, 2018.
  141. ^ a b Kyrsten Sinema [@KyrstenSinema] (November 5, 2017). "Thank you for your support, @TomOHalleran!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  142. ^ Skabelund, Adrian (June 29, 2018). "Campaign Corner: Mayor Evans endorses Sinema for U.S. Senate". Arizona Daily Sun. Archived from the original on July 2, 2018. Retrieved July 2, 2018.
  143. ^ a b Jon Favreau [@jonfavs] (October 24, 2017). "Was Flake's speech brave? Not enough? Too little too late? Who really cares! What matters more is that @kyrstensinema takes his seat" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  144. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Jason Kander (D. MO) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Prevent Sheriff Joe From Becoming Senator Joe". Daily Kos. March 28, 2018. Archived from the original on March 30, 2018. Retrieved March 30, 2018.
  145. ^ a b "Jenny Wilson for UT on Twitter". twitter.com. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  146. ^ a b "AZBTC endorses six candidates running for federal office – Arizona Building Trades". Arizona Building Trades. April 13, 2018. Archived from the original on April 27, 2018. Retrieved April 27, 2018.
  147. ^ "Recommended Candidates | AEA Fund". www.vote4schoolsaz.com. AEA Fund for Public Education. Archived from the original on July 20, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2018.
  148. ^ McLaughlin, Jim; Bean, Bob; Wine, Dean (July 9, 2018). "We are pleased to announce the following endorsements for statewide candidates". Arizona AFL–CIO – via Facebook.
  149. ^ a b "Our Candidates – CWA Political". CWA Political. Archived from the original on April 3, 2018. Retrieved April 22, 2018.
  150. ^ a b Holly, Jeff; McDermott, Thomas. "Newsletter-May-2018" (PDF). www.smw359.org/. SMW Local 359. p. 6. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 28, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
  151. ^ a b "NEA Fund – Recommended Candidates". www.neafund.org. Archived from the original on August 1, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
  152. ^ a b McLaughlin, Jim (July 26, 2018). "Proud to stand w/ @kyrstensinema in her bid for US Senate. #AZSen". UFCW Local 99 – via Facebook.
  153. ^ a b "Arizona – COMPAC Endorsements – UMWA". United Mine Workers of America. Archived from the original on May 15, 2018. Retrieved May 15, 2018.
  154. ^ Kimble, Terri; Przybylski, Mary Ann. "Chandler Chamber Voter Score Card 2018". www.chandlerchamber.com. Chandler Chamber of Commerce. Archived from the original on July 11, 2018. Retrieved July 11, 2018.
  155. ^ a b Chris Van Hollen (September 29, 2017). "DSCC Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for Senate". DSCC. Archived from the original on September 30, 2017. Retrieved September 30, 2017.
  156. ^ a b "Emily's List Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona Senate". Emily's List. September 29, 2017. Archived from the original on September 30, 2017. Retrieved September 30, 2017.
  157. ^ a b Tiffany Muller (October 12, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
  158. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates – Equality PAC". Equality PAC.
  159. ^ "Victory Fund Endorses Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema in Pivotal U.S. Senate Race". Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund. November 9, 2017. Archived from the original on November 11, 2017. Retrieved November 11, 2017.
  160. ^ a b "HRC Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign. September 29, 2017.
  161. ^ a b Sittenfeld, Tiernan (April 19, 2018). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on April 20, 2018. Retrieved April 20, 2018.
  162. ^ a b "AZ-Sen: Jason Kander Refuses To Let Notorious Racist Joe Arpaio (R) Into Another Position Of Power". Daily Kos. January 10, 2018. Archived from the original on January 12, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
  163. ^ a b Ricketts, Laura (February 13, 2018). "LESBIAN SUPER PAC (LPAC) ENDORSES KEY CANDIDATES IN ARIZONA, FLORIDA AND TEXAS – LPAC". LPAC. Archived from the original on March 28, 2018. Retrieved March 28, 2018.
  164. ^ Castillo, Renee (June 27, 2018). "Mesa Chamber Announces 2018 Candidate Endorsements". Mesa Chamber of Commerce. Archived from the original on July 3, 2018. Retrieved July 3, 2018.
  165. ^ a b "Federal Endorsements by the NOW PAC | National Organization for Women Political Action Committees". nowpac.org. August 23, 2017. Archived from the original on April 26, 2019. Retrieved April 17, 2018.
  166. ^ a b Laguens, Dawn; Liggett, Jodi (April 19, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Archived from the original on April 22, 2018. Retrieved April 22, 2018.
  167. ^ a b "2018 Endorsements". stonewalldemsaz.org. Archived from the original on April 9, 2018. Retrieved April 9, 2018.
  168. ^ Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  169. ^ Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  170. ^ Richard Sherzan with 4%, Cheryl Fowler and David Ruben with 3%, Bob Bishop with 2%
  171. ^ Ricca, Aaron (September 28, 2017). "Libertarians get the word out at Andy Devine Days Rally". The Kingman Daily Miner. Archived from the original on June 17, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2017.
  172. ^ a b "Primary candidates drop off ballot following petition challenges". Glendale Star. Archived from the original on July 2, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  173. ^ "Arizona Green Party (AZGP) - Candidates--2018". Arizona Green Party (AZGP). Archived from the original on September 27, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  174. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  175. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  176. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Senate". www.centerforpolitics.org. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved April 8, 2018.
  177. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  178. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Archived from the original on July 9, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  179. ^ Silver, Nate (September 11, 2018). "Arizona - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on October 2, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  180. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018. Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. Retrieved June 28, 2018.
  181. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Archived from the original on July 4, 2018. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  182. ^ a b Samuels, Brett (October 10, 2018). "George W. Bush, Mitt Romney to visit Arizona to boost Martha McSally". The Hill. Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 10, 2018.
  183. ^ Flaherty, Joseph (October 29, 2018). "Family of Betsy DeVos Boosts Martha McSally's Campaign With Donations". Phoenix New Times. Archived from the original on October 30, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  184. ^ Mike Pence. "Big win for @MarthaMcSally in Arizona! Martha served our nation with distinction in the @usairforce & she will be a great addition to the US Senate helping enact the @realDonaldTrump agenda. Get out and support Martha in November!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  185. ^ "Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Endorses Martha McSally For US Senate". McSally for Senate. November 2, 2018. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  186. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Martha McSally, running in the Arizona Primary for U.S. Senate, was endorsed by rejected Senator Jeff Flake....and turned it down – a first! Now Martha, a great U.S. Military fighter jet pilot and highly respected member of Congress, WINS BIG. Congratulations, and on to November!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  187. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Martha McSally is an extraordinary woman. She was a very talented fighter jet pilot and is now a highly respected member of Congress. She is Strong on Crime, the Border and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Loves our Military and our Vets. Has my total and complete Endorsement!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  188. ^ John Boozman. "As a USAF fighter pilot, @MarthaMcSally served bravely & honorably—blazing a bold trail for girls and young women. In Congress she's a leader and powerful advocate for our military, veterans & border security. She'd be a great addition to the US Senate. Good luck Martha! #AZSen". Twitter.
  189. ^ McSally For Senate. "Excited to have Senator Susan Collins in town this week! #AZSEN". Twitter.
  190. ^ Joni Ernst. ".@MarthaMcSally and I wore uniforms – not tutus ... #Veterans need strong voices for them in the Senate. Vote for Martha! #AZSEN". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 26, 2018. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
  191. ^ "Lindsey Graham on Twitter". Twitter.
  192. ^ "Liz Cheney on Twitter". Twitter.
  193. ^ "Mitt Romney, Gov. Doug Ducey rally for Martha McSally". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  194. ^ "State Senator Karen Fann Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate". McSally for Senate. October 24, 2018. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  195. ^ "Former Representative Steve Pierce Endorses Martha McSally for Senate". McSally for Senate. October 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  196. ^ Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (November 1, 2018). "Jan Brewer, Kelli Ward cut radio ad to help Martha McSally in U.S. Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  197. ^ "Maricopa County Attorney Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate". McSally for Senate. October 3, 2018. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  198. ^ "Rudy Giuliani on Twitter". Twitter.
  199. ^ Kimberly Guilfoyle. "Great to campaign with ⁦@MarthaMcSally⁩ AZ deserves a strong conservative that supports ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ ... Trump Jr. attends GOP Get Out the Vote rally". Twitter. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.
  200. ^ "Campaign officials: Trump Jr. to campaign for McSally". Fox 10. October 29, 2018. Archived from the original on October 30, 2018. Retrieved November 9, 2018.
  201. ^ "CCAGW PAC Endorses Rep. McSally for U.S. Senate, Three Arizona House Candidates". CCAGW PAC. September 25, 2018. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved September 30, 2018.
  202. ^ "Small Business Endorses Congresswoman McSally for the U.S. Senate". NFIB. October 22, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  203. ^ "Editorial: Courier offers picks in partisan races, ballot questions". The Daily Courier. October 20, 2018. Archived from the original on November 5, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  204. ^ "Martha McSally for Senate". National Review. October 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  205. ^ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 2, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  206. ^ "Obama endorses Kyrsten Sinema and Democrats in Arizona governor, AG races". Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  207. ^ Brian Schatz. "I'm also sending money to @kyrstensinema because she's in a very tough race for Senate in Arizona. Please help". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 9, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  208. ^ "AZ-Sen: Rep. Conor Lamb (D. PA) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Get Ready To Defeat Martha McSally (R)". Daily Kos. August 29, 2018.
  209. ^ Grant Woods. ".@KyrstenSinema is a strong and principled leader who will be a great senator for Arizona. As a former Attorney General, I'm proud to endorse Kyrsten because I know that when it comes to keeping our families safe, Kyrsten is tough as nails. #AZsen". Twitter. Archived from the original on September 29, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  210. ^ Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (November 1, 2018). "Green Party candidate drops out, throws support to Kyrsten Sinema in Senate race". azcentral.
  211. ^ Amy Schumer. "News". Twitter.
  212. ^ Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
  213. ^ McCubbin III, George (September 8, 2018). "AFGE | AFGE Endorses Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate". www.afge.org. American Federation of Government Employees District 12. Archived from the original on September 10, 2018. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  214. ^ "Endorsements". Arizona AFL–CIO. August 10, 2018. Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 10, 2018.
  215. ^ "Carpenters 2018 Midterm Arizona Endorsements | Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters". swcarpenters.org. Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  216. ^ "Arizona – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers. Archived from the original on October 28, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  217. ^ "Retiree Group Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate – Retired Americans". Retired Americans. September 19, 2018. Archived from the original on October 29, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  218. ^ "Kyrsten Sinema – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  219. ^ "Victory Fund Endorses Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema in Pivotal U.S. Senate Race". LGBTQ Victory Fund. November 9, 2017. Archived from the original on November 11, 2017. Retrieved November 11, 2017.
  220. ^ "Candidates We Endorse and Support – NCPSSM". National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
  221. ^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  222. ^ "Endorsed Candidates | Rachel's Action Network". rachelsactionnetwork.org. Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  223. ^ "Candidates – Run with Pride | Electing LGBTQ+ Candidates to Congress". runwithpride.org. Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  224. ^ "Don't believe the attack ads. Here's who Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally really are". The Arizona Republic. October 21, 2018.
  225. ^ "Campaign finance data". Archived from the original on September 11, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  226. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  227. ^ HarrisX
  228. ^ HarrisX
  229. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  230. ^ Emerson College
  231. ^ HarrisX
  232. ^ Research Co.
  233. ^ HarrisX
  234. ^ Gravis Marketing
  235. ^ HarrisX
  236. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  237. ^ HarrisX
  238. ^ Vox Populi Polling
  239. ^ HarrisX
  240. ^ FOX News
  241. ^ CNN/SSRS
  242. ^ HighGround Public Affairs Archived October 30, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  243. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  244. ^ CBS News/YouGov
  245. ^ Ipsos
  246. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  247. ^ NYT Upshot/Siena College
  248. ^ Data Orbital Archived October 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  249. ^ Change Research (D)
  250. ^ CBS News/YouGov
  251. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  252. ^ FOX News
  253. ^ Vox Populi Polling
  254. ^ Suffolk University Archived October 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  255. ^ Latino Decisions
  256. ^ Emerson College
  257. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  258. ^ CNN/SSRS
  259. ^ Ipsos
  260. ^ TargetSmart (D) Archived September 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  261. ^ FOX News
  262. ^ Gravis Marketing Archived September 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  263. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  264. ^ Data Orbital Archived September 12, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  265. ^ Adam Kokesh (L) with 2%
  266. ^ Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  267. ^ a b c SurveyMonkey/Axios
  268. ^ Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  269. ^ CBS News/YouGov
  270. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  271. ^ a b c SurveyMonkey/Axios
  272. ^ a b c OH Predictive Insights
  273. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  274. ^ Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  275. ^ Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  276. ^ a b YouGov
  277. ^ a b Revily (R-Ward)
  278. ^ HighGround Public Affairs Archived November 8, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  279. ^ Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  280. ^ Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  281. ^ Morning Consult Archived July 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  282. ^ Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
  283. ^ Public Policy Polling
  284. ^ Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) Archived August 4, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  285. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (November 7, 2018). "The McSally-Sinema Senate race is too close to call. Now what happens?". The Arizona Republic.
  286. ^ "Counting continues in tight Arizona Senate race". KGUN 9 Tucson News. November 7, 2018.
  287. ^ Arkin, James (November 8, 2018). "Sinema takes slim lead in too-close-to-call Arizona Senate race". POLITICO.
  288. ^ Zarrell, Matt (November 12, 2018). "Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Declared Winner in Arizona Senate Race". ABC News. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
  289. ^ a b Leingang, Rachel. "Martha McSally concedes to Kyrsten Sinema after 'hard-fought battle'". The Arizona Republic.
  290. ^ "It's officially over: Top Arizona officials certify November election results". KTAR.com. December 3, 2018.
  291. ^ "Kyrsten Sinema Becomes First Female Senator Elected From Arizona". Roll Call. November 13, 2018.
  292. ^ "2018 Election Information". 2018 Election Information | Arizona Secretary of State. Arizona Department of State. Retrieved May 16, 2020.
  293. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  294. ^ Martin, Jonathan; Hakim, Danny (September 4, 2018). "Jon Kyl, Former Senator, Will Replace McCain in Arizona". The New York Times. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
  295. ^ "Kyrsten Sinema, Martha McSally sworn in as US senators". 12news.com. January 3, 2019.
  296. ^ "Lawsuit Accuses Arizona Governor of Violating Constitution Over Appointment to John McCain's Senate Seat". Fortune.
  297. ^ LeVine, Marianne (November 4, 2020). "Kelly defeats McSally in Arizona Senate race". POLITICO.
  298. ^ "Arizona Senate Election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved March 29, 2019.
edit

Official campaign websites

Retrieved from "https://en.wiki.x.io/w/index.php?title=2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona&oldid=1257883008"