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2016 United States presidential election in Arizona

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

2016 United States presidential election in Arizona
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout74.2% Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,252,401 1,161,167
Percentage 48.08% 44.58%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size, and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county

Despite the country at-large swinging to the right, Arizona's Republican margin of victory decreased from 9.0% in 2012[2] to only 3.5% in 2016, thus making it one of 11 states (along with the District of Columbia) to swing toward the Democratic Party in this election. Trump's margin of victory in Arizona was the smallest for any Republican who won the presidency since Arizona's founding in 1912, with Calvin Coolidge's 5.8% victory in 1924 being the second closest.

Notably, Maricopa County, the state's most populous county, went more Democratic than the state as a whole for the first time in state history. The county had not voted for a Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948. Therefore, Trump's narrow win in the county suggested the Republican Party was losing ground in the state. In fact, the county and the state would go on to vote Democratic in 2020, although both would easily return to Trump's column in 2024.

Primary elections

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Main article: 2016 Arizona presidential primary

Democratic primary

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Main article: 2016 Arizona Democratic primary
 
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally at Carl Hayden High School in Phoenix on March 21, 2016.
 
Senator Bernie Sanders at a campaign rally at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix on March 15, 2016.
 
Former President Bill Clinton at a campaign rally for his wife at Central High School in Phoenix on March 20, 2016.

Six candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3]

Opinion polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries § Arizona

Results

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See also: Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries


e • d 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Arizona
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 262,459 56.3% 42 6 48
Bernie Sanders 192,962 41.4% 33 1 34
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 3,877 0.8%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 2,797 0.6%
Michael Steinberg 2,295 0.5%
Henry Hewes 1,845 0.4%
Uncommitted — 3 3
Total 466,235 100% 75 10 85
Source: [4][5]

Detailed results per congressional district

Detailed results for the Arizona Democratic primary, April 5, 2016[6][7]
District Total Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Votes Delegates Votes % Delegates Votes % Delegates
1st district 63,863 6 35,445 55.5% 3 26,267 41.1% 3
2nd district 78,237 8 42,797 54.7% 4 33,891 43.3% 4
3rd district 51,520 5 30,298 58.8% 3 20,091 39.0% 2
4th district 37,273 4 15,289 55.4% 2 20,662 41.0% 2
5th district 40,847 5 22,973 56.2% 3 16,982 41.6% 2
6th district 50,465 6 29,266 58.0% 4 20,259 40.1% 2
7th district 42,199 5 24,245 57.5% 3 17,173 40.7% 2
8th district 46,491 5 27,672 59.5% 3 17,651 38.0% 2
9th district 55,340 6 29,101 52.6% 3 25,359 45.8% 3
At-large delegates 466,235 16 262,459 56.3% 9 192,962 41.4% 7
Pledged PLEOs 466,235 9 262,459 56.3% 5 192,962 41.4% 4
Total 466,235 75 262,464 56.3% 42 192,965 41.4% 33

Republican primary

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Main article: 2016 Arizona Republican primary
 
Businessman Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Fountain Park in Fountain Hills on March 19, 2016.
 
Senator Ted Cruz at a campaign rally at Arizona Christian University in Phoenix on March 18, 2016.

Fourteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[8]

Arizona Republican primary, March 22, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 286,743 45.95% 58 0 58
Ted Cruz 172,294 27.61% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 72,304 11.59% 0 0 0
John Kasich 65,965 10.57% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 14,940 2.39% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 4,393 0.70% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,269 0.36% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,300 0.21% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,270 0.20% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 988 0.16% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 523 0.08% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 498 0.08% 0 0 0
George Pataki (withdrawn) 309 0.05% 0 0 0
Timothy Cook (withdrawn) 243 0.04% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 624,039 100.00% 58 0 58
Source: The Green Papers

Green primary

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Green Party candidate Jill Stein at a campaign rally at the Mesa Public Library in Mesa on March 12, 2016.

The Arizona Green Party held its primary on March 22. Jill Stein won with 82% of the vote, and the overall number of voters that took place in the primary saw an increase from 561 in 2012 to 770 in 2016.[9] Only two candidates qualified for the primary:[10]

Arizona Green Party presidential primary, March 22, 2016[11]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
  Jill Stein 666 82% 5
Kent Mesplay 151 18% 1
Write-in/Blank 18 0% -
Total 817 100.0% 6

General election

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Polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Arizona

The first poll conducted in March 2016 showed a tie between Clinton and Trump. From March 2016 to October, the polling in this normally Republican state was quite close, with neither candidate seriously leading. In late October, Trump gained momentum and won every pre-election poll in the weeks leading up to the election. The final poll showed Trump leading Clinton 46% to 41% and the average of the final 3 polls showed Trump leading 47% to 43%, which was accurate compared to the results.[12]

Predictions

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The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Arizona as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[13] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[14] Tilt R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Lean R November 7, 2016
CNN[16] Tossup November 8, 2016
NBC[17] Tossup November 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics[18] Tossup November 8, 2016
Fox News[19] Lean R November 7, 2016
ABC[20] Tossup November 7, 2016

Results

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2016 United States presidential election in Arizona[21]
Party Candidate Running mate Popular vote Electoral vote Swing
Count % Count %
Republican Donald Trump of New York Mike Pence of Indiana 1,252,401 48.1% 11 100.0%  5.4%
Democratic Hillary Clinton of New York Tim Kaine of Virginia 1,161,167 44.6% 0 0.0%  0.1%
Libertarian Gary Johnson of New Mexico Bill Weld of Massachusetts 106,327 4.1% 0 0.0%  2.7%
Green Jill Stein of Massachusetts Ajamu Baraka of Illinois 34,345 1.3% 0 0.0%  1.0%
Write-in Various of Various Various of Various 31,662 1.2% 0 0.0%  0.9%
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) of Utah Nathan Johnson of California 17,449 0.7% 0 0.0%  0.7%
Constitution Darrell L. Castle (write-in) of Tennessee Scott N. Bradley of Utah 1,058 0.0% 0 0.0%  0.0%
Independent Tom Hoefling (write-in) of Iowa Steve Schulin of South Carolina 85 0.0% 0 0.0%  
Independent Mike Smith (write-in) of Tennessee Daniel L. White of Texas 62 0.0% 0 0.0%  
Independent Laurence Kotlikoff (write-in) of Massachusetts Edward E. Leamer of California 52 0.0% 0 0.0%  
Reform Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) of California Michael Steinberg of Florida 29 0.0% 0 0.0%  
Independent Joseph Allen Maldonado (write-in) of Oklahoma Douglas Terranova of Texas 20 0.0% 0 0.0%  
Total 2,604,657 100.0% 11 100.0%

By county

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County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Apache 8,240 29.79% 17,083 61.76% 2,338 8.45% -8,843 -31.97% 27,661
Cochise 28,092 56.17% 17,450 34.89% 4,473 8.94% 10,642 21.28% 50,015
Coconino 21,108 35.31% 32,404 54.20% 6,272 10.49% -11,296 -18.89% 59,784
Gila 14,182 62.99% 7,003 31.10% 1,330 5.91% 7,179 31.89% 22,515
Graham 8,025 65.34% 3,301 26.88% 955 7.78% 4,724 38.46% 12,281
Greenlee 1,892 57.33% 1,092 33.09% 316 9.58% 800 24.24% 3,300
La Paz 4,003 67.27% 1,575 26.47% 373 6.27% 2,428 40.80% 5,951
Maricopa 747,361 47.67% 702,907 44.83% 117,566 7.50% 44,454 2.84% 1,567,834
Mohave 58,282 72.90% 17,455 21.83% 4,206 5.26% 40,827 51.07% 79,943
Navajo 20,577 51.07% 16,459 40.85% 3,258 8.09% 4,118 10.22% 40,294
Pima 167,428 39.71% 224,661 53.28% 29,551 7.01% -57,233 -13.57% 421,640
Pinal 72,819 56.21% 47,892 36.97% 8,835 6.82% 24,927 19.24% 129,546
Santa Cruz 3,897 23.71% 11,690 71.14% 846 5.15% -7,793 -47.43% 16,433
Yavapai 71,330 62.32% 35,590 31.10% 7,530 6.58% 35,740 31.22% 114,450
Yuma 25,165 47.47% 24,605 46.42% 3,240 6.11% 560 1.05% 53,010
Totals 1,252,401 48.08% 1,161,167 44.58% 191,089 7.34% 91,234 3.50% 2,604,657
 
 

By congressional district

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Trump won 5 of 9 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.[22]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 47.7% 46.6% Ann Kirkpatrick
Tom O'Halleran
2nd 44.7% 49.6% Martha McSally
3rd 32.5% 62.4% Raúl Grijalva
4th 67.7% 27.5% Paul Gosar
5th 57.6% 36.5% Matt Salmon
Andy Biggs
6th 52.4% 42.4% David Schweikert
7th 22.6% 71.8% Ruben Gallego
8th 58.1% 37.0% Trent Franks
9th 38.4% 54.7% Kyrsten Sinema

Turnout

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Voter Turnout was 74.2% with 2,661,497 ballots cast out of 3,588,466 voters.[23]

Analysis

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Donald Trump won Arizona with a margin of 3.5%, a reduced margin from Mitt Romney's 9.0% margin in 2012.[24] Arizona was among the eleven states in which Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama's margin in 2012,[25] primarily due to an increase in Hispanic voter turnout in southern Arizona, including heavily populated Maricopa County. This was the weakest performance for a Republican in the state since 1992. Trump also lost the 2nd congressional district that Romney had won four years earlier.

Maricopa County in particular went from a 10.7% margin of victory for Romney in 2012 to a 2.8% margin of victory for Trump, making this only one of three times that a Democrat held the county's margins to single digits since 1952. Indeed, the only other times were 1964 and 1996. Clinton also came the closest of any Democrat to winning Yuma County since La Paz County broke off from it in the 1980s, as the county was last carried by a Democrat in 1964.

Other rural counties that Bill Clinton had won in the 1990s continued to trend in a Republican direction, namely the formerly union-heavy Gila, Graham, and Greenlee counties. In terms of percentage of the vote, Trump's strongest support was in the northwest of the state, including Mohave County, which was the only county to give him over 70% of the vote. Clinton did best in the southern-central region along the US-Mexico border. Santa Cruz and Pima counties (home to Tucson) were among her strongest and among the places in the state where she outperformed Barack Obama in 2012.

Electors

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Arizona had 11 electors in 2016. All of them voted for Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.

The electors were

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  2. ^ Hobbs, Katie. "Arizona Secretary of State 2012 Election Information". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
  3. ^ "Democratic Party Candidates – Presidential Preference Election 2016". azsos.gov. Secretary of State of Arizona. Archived from the original on September 9, 2016. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
  4. ^ The Green Papers
  5. ^ Arizona Secretary of State
  6. ^ "Arizona Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com.
  7. ^ "2016 Arizona District-Level Delegate Math" (PDF). Arizona Democratic Party. April 5, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2016. Retrieved April 8, 2016.
  8. ^ "Republican Party Candidates – Presidential Preference Election 2016 | Arizona Secretary of State". Azsos.gov. March 7, 2015. Archived from the original on December 3, 2016. Retrieved December 1, 2016.
  9. ^ "Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary Results". Ballot Access News. March 23, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
  10. ^ "Two Candidates Qualify for Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary; Six Qualify for Democratic Primary". Ballot Access News. December 14, 2015. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
  11. ^ "Unofficial 2016 Presidential Preference Election Results". azsos.gov. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
  12. ^ "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton". www.realclearpolitics.com.
  13. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  14. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  15. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  16. ^ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map – CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  17. ^ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  18. ^ "2016 Election Maps – Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  19. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  20. ^ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  21. ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results – Arizona".
  22. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
  23. ^ "Arizona Secretary of State Election Night Reporting". Results.arizona.vote. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  24. ^ "Arizona Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  25. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections – County Data".
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