The 2024 Northern Territory general election is scheduled to be held on 24 August 2024 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.
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All 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly 13 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Members will be elected through full preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP) majority government, led by Eva Lawler since December 2023, will attempt to win a third consecutive four-year term of government, similar to that seen previously in Queensland and Victoria, which will be challenged by the centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP) opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro.
The election will be conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission.
For the first time in NT history, both major parties will go into the election with female leaders. Additionally, both leaders are from the city of Palmerston; indeed, before her move to the then-new seat of Spillett in 2016, Finocchiaro was the member for Drysdale (the seat Lawler won in 2016 after Finocchiaro transferred to Spillett).
Background
editIn the event both current leaders remain in place, this will be the first election in the Northern Territory where both major political parties are led by women, and the third in any Australian state or territory after the 1995 ACT election and 2020 Queensland election.
Previous election
editAt the 2020 election, the Labor government led by Chief Minister Michael Gunner was re-elected with a reduced majority, winning 14 of the 25 seats in the parliament. The Country Liberals (CLP) won 8 seats, whilst the Territory Alliance party won 1 seat and a further 2 seats were won by independents.
Parliamentary composition
editRobyn Lambley, the Territory Alliance's sole representative in the parliament, left the party in October 2020 to sit as an independent.[2] Labor MLA Mark Turner was expelled from the party-room caucus in February 2021 due to what he acknowledged as an "inappropriate relationship" with a Labor Party staffer, though he remained a Labor-designated member in the assembly.[3]
A by-election was held for the seat of Daly on 11 September 2021, caused by the resignation of CLP member Ian Sloan due to health and personal issues. Labor candidate Dheran Young won the seat, the first time that an incumbent government has won a seat from the opposition in the history of the Legislative Assembly.[4]
On 10 May 2022, Chief Minister and Labor leader Michael Gunner announced his immediate resignation from both positions, citing his desire to spend more time with his family following the birth of his and his wife's second son on 29 April.[5] Following a party-room meeting on 13 May, Labor minister Natasha Fyles was elected unopposed to the leadership, and was sworn in as the new Chief Minister later day.[6] Gunner resigned from the seat of Fannie Bay on 27 July and a by-election was held on 20 August 2022. Labor retained the seat at the by-election, with candidate Brent Potter victorious despite recording a 7 per cent swing against the party.[7]
On 17 December 2022, Labor MP for Arafura Lawrence Costa died. This triggered a by-election which was held on 18 March 2023. Manuel Brown retained the seat for Labor with a 15.6% swing towards the party on the two-party-preferred result.
In December 2023, it was revealed that Fyles holds 754 undeclared shares in South32, a company that owns a manganese mine on Groote Eylandt. Fyles faced further conflict of interest allegations and calls to resign, due to Fyles' decision earlier in 2023 to not investigate health impacts from the Groote Eylandt mine, with Leader of the Opposition Lia Finocchiaro calling her actions a 'profound betrayal of public trust'.[8][9] As a result of the controversy, Fyles resigned on 19 December 2023.[9]
The Northern Territory Legislative Assembly has four independents all of which are in reasonably marginal seats, this increased by one following the removal of Mark Turner from the Labor caucus.
Redistribution
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The first redistribution proposal was published on 23 May 2023.[10]
Election date
editThe parliament has fixed four-year terms, with elections to be held on the fourth Saturday of August every four years.[11]
Pre-election pendulum
edit| Government seats (14) | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Port Darwin | Paul Kirby | ALP | 1.9 |
| Fong Lim | Mark Monaghan | ALP | 2.2 |
| Arafura | Manuel Brown[c] | ALP | 3.6[d] |
| Drysdale | Eva Lawler | ALP | 5.4 |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Daly | Dheran Young[e] | ALP | 6.1 [f] |
| Karama | Ngaree Ah Kit | ALP | 8.3 |
| Safe | |||
| Fannie Bay | Brent Potter[g] | ALP | 10.9[h] |
| Arnhem | Selena Uibo | ALP | 15.9[i] |
| Casuarina | Lauren Moss | ALP | 16.0 |
| Gwoja | Chansey Paech | ALP | 16.2 |
| Johnston | Joel Bowden | ALP | 16.0 |
| Wanguri | Nicole Manison | ALP | 17.3 |
| Sanderson | Kate Worden | ALP | 18.8 |
| Nightcliff | Natasha Fyles | ALP | 24.1 |
| Opposition seats (7) | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Barkly | Steve Edgington | CLP | 0.1 |
| Namatjira | Bill Yan | CLP | 0.3 |
| Braitling | Joshua Burgoyne | CLP | 1.3 |
| Katherine | Jo Hersey | CLP | 2.5 |
| Brennan | Marie-Clare Boothby | CLP | 3.0 |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Nelson | Gerard Maley | CLP | 9.2 v IND |
| Safe | |||
| Spillett | Lia Finocchiaro | CLP | 13.5 |
| Crossbench seats (4) | |||
| Araluen | Robyn Lambley | IND | 0.5 v CLP |
| Blain | Mark Turner | IND[j] | 1.3 (ALP v CLP) |
| Mulka | Yingiya Mark Guyula | IND | 5.1 v ALP |
| Goyder | Kezia Purick | IND | 6.8 v CLP |
Notes
edit- This pre-election pendulum is based on post-redistribution estimates of margins calculated by ABC election analyst Antony Green.[12]
- Members listed in italics are retiring at the 2024 election.
Registered parties
editAt the close of nominations for the election, five parties were registered with the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC).[13]
Candidates and retiring MLAs
editRetiring MLAs
editThe following members announced that they were not contesting the 2024 election:
Labor
edit- Paul Kirby (Port Darwin) – announced retirement on 25 January 2024[14]
- Nicole Manison (Wanguri) – announced retirement 12 January 2024[15]
Independent
edit- Kezia Purick (Goyder) – announced retirement 15 February 2024[16]
Candidates
editFinocchiaro announced the first CLP candidates in May 2023.[17]
Labor confirmed they would not contest the seat of Mulka on 1 August 2024, with Chief Minister Eva Lawler citing her party's "good relationship with and respect for" incumbent MLA Yingiya Mark Guyula.[18]
Nominations closed on 8 August 2024 and the ballot draws were conducted the same day. In total, 80 candidates nominated for election, down from 111 at the previous election.[19]
This is the first election since the 2008 election where there is no party running aside from Labor, CLP and the Greens.
| Seat | Held by | Labor candidate | CLP candidate | Greens candidate | Independent candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arafura | Labor | Manuel Brown | Yanja Thompson | ||
| Araluen | Independent | Gagandeep Sodhi | Sean Heenan | Hugo Wells | Robyn Lambley Wayne Wright |
| Arnhem | Labor | Selena Uibo | Ian Mongunu Gumbula | ||
| Barkly | CLP | Lizzie Hogan | Steve Edgington | ||
| Blain | Independent | Danielle Eveleigh | Matthew Kerle | Mark Turner | |
| Braitling | CLP | Allison Bitar | Joshua Burgoyne | Asta Hill | |
| Brennan | CLP | Tony Sievers | Marie-Clare Boothby | ||
| Casuarina | Labor | Lauren Moss | Khoda Patel | Pamela McCalman | Martin Jackson |
| Daly | Labor | Dheran Young | Kris Civitarese | ||
| Drysdale | Labor | Eva Lawler | Clinton Howe | Cindy Mebbingarri Roberts | |
| Fannie Bay | Labor | Brent Potter | Laurie Zio | Suki Dorras-Walker | Leonard May |
| Fong Lim | Labor | Mark Monaghan | Tanzil Rahman | Simon Niblock | Amye Un |
| Goyder | Independent | Sandy Griffin | Andrew Mackay | Belinda Kolstad Mathew Salter Trevor Jenkins | |
| Gwoja | Labor | Chansey Paech | Jarrod Jupurula Williams | ||
| Johnston | Labor | Joel Bowden | Gary Strachan | Billie Barton | Justine Davis |
| Karama | Labor | Ngaree Ah Kit | Brian O'Gallagher | Andy Rowan | Justine Glover |
| Katherine | CLP | Nick Lovering | Jo Hersey | Sam Phelan | |
| Mulka | Independent | Allen Fanning | Yingiya Mark Guyula | ||
| Namatjira | CLP | Sheralee Taylor | Bill Yan | Blair McFarland | |
| Nelson | CLP | Anthony Venes | Gerard Maley | Beverley Ratahi | |
| Nightcliff | Labor | Natasha Fyles | Helen Secretary | Kat McNamara | George Mamouzellos Mililma May |
| Port Darwin | Labor | Brian Manning | Robyn Cahill | Greg Dickson | Janey Davies Leah Potter |
| Sanderson | Labor | Kate Worden | Jinson Charls | ||
| Spillett | CLP | Caleb Burke | Lia Finocchiaro | ||
| Wanguri | Labor | Shlok Sharma | Oly Carlson | Andrew Coates | Graeme Sawyer |
Disendorsed candidates
edit| Party | Candidate | Seat | Disendorsed | Reason for disendorsement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greens | Peltherre Chris Tomlins | Araluen | 8 March 2024 | Disendorsed for spreading antisemitic conspiracy theories.[20] | |
Opinion polling
editVoting intention
edit| Date | Firm | Primary vote | TPP[k] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | CLP | Ind | GRN | SFF | OTH | ALP | CLP | ||
| May 2024 | Freshwater Strategy[22] | 29% | 39% | 22% | 9% | - | - | 46% | 54% |
| 16–18 November 2023 | Redbridge[23] | 19.7% | 40.6% | 14% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 2.4%[l] | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| 2020 election | 39.4% | 31.3% | 10.7% | 4.5% | N/A | 14.1%[m] | 53.3% | 46.7% | |
Notes
edit- ^ On 18 February 2021, Mark Turner, the member for Blain, was expelled from the Labor Party caucus but remained a rank-and-file member of the party, although he sits on the crossbench, bringing Labor's seat total to thirteen. However, Labor won the seat of Daly from the Country Liberal Party at the 2021 Daly by-election on 11 September 2021, bringing their seat total back to fourteen. Turner was later expelled from the party completely.[1]
- ^ The Country Liberal Party lost the electorate of Daly to Labor at a by-election in 2021.
- ^ Manuel Brown was elected at the 2023 Arafura by-election after the death of Lawrence Costa
- ^ 3.6% was the Labor margin at the 2020 general election. The Labor margin after the 2023 Arafura by-election was 19.1%.
- ^ Dheran Young was elected at the 2021 Daly by-election after the resignation of Ian Sloan
- ^ The margin after the 2021 Daly by-election was 7.3% for Labor. The by-election margin adjusted for redistribution is 6.1% for Labor. The margin at the 2020 general election was 1.2% for the Country Liberal Party
- ^ Brent Potter was elected at the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election after the resignation of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner
- ^ 10.9% was the Labor margin at the 2020 general election. The Labor margin after the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election was 2.2%.
- ^ The Labor margin in Arnhem at the 2020 general election was 1.4% versus Independent Ian Mongunu Gumbula. Gumbula is running as a CLP candidate in the 2024 general election without the support of Mulka Independent MLA Yingiya Mark Guyula who supported him in 2020, which would make the 2020 two-party preferred result adjusted for redistribution a better measure of the contest.
- ^ Mark Turner was expelled from the Labor Party caucus in 2021 and from the party completely in 2023.[1]
- ^ The TPP estimates have been manually calculated based on preference flows.[21]
- ^ Animal Justice Party 2.4%
- ^ Includes the now defunct, Territory Alliance, who were a 12.90% share of this figure.
References
edit- ^ a b "NT politician Mark Turner expelled from Labor Party". ABC News. 8 June 2023.
- ^ James, Felicity (21 October 2020). "Territory Alliance party ousts Robyn Lambley, leaving it with no seats in Parliament". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
- ^ Jane Gibson (18 February 2021). "Blain MLA Mark Turner exiled from NT Labor caucus as staffer resigns over scandal". ABC News.
- ^ "Results - 2021 Division of Daly - by-election". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 24 September 2021. Archived from the original on 27 February 2022. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
- ^ "Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner to resign". ABC News. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 10 May 2022.
- ^ "Natasha Fyles sworn in as Northern Territory Chief Minister, replacing Michael Gunner". ABC News. 13 May 2022.
- ^ "VIDEO: Labor's Brent Potter wins Fannie Bay by-election". ABC News. 22 August 2022.
- ^ "NT chief minister Natasha Fyles under pressure to resign over alleged undisclosed shares worth $2,000". The Guardian. Australian Associated Press. 19 December 2023. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
- ^ a b "Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigns amid mounting pressure over leadership". ABC News. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
- ^ "Northern Territory Election Commission". Archived from the original on 10 June 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
- ^ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
- ^ Green, Antony. "Pendulum – NT Votes 2024". ABC Elections. ABC News. Retrieved 14 August 2024.
- ^ "Register of political parties in the Northern Territory" (PDF). NT Electoral Commission. 28 March 2024. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
- ^ Smith, Camden (28 January 2024). "Territory Labor pre-selection battle looms as candidates stand up". NT News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
- ^ Hislop, Jack (12 January 2024). "Former NT deputy chief minister Nicole Manison will not recontest seat of Wanguri at 2024 election". ABC News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
- ^ Morgan, Thomas (15 February 2024). "NT independent MLA Kezia Purick to retire from politics at next election in August". ABC News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
- ^ Finocchiaro, Lia (10 May 2023). "Budget in Reply".
- ^ Walsh, Fia (1 August 2024). "'It's a struggle': Araluen, Mulka and Nelson candidates unconfirmed less than a month from NT election". NT News. Retrieved 6 August 2024.
- ^ "List of candidates". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 8 August 2024.
- ^ "NT Greens candidate dumped after Facebook post resurfaces suggesting the government is 'owned' by Zionists". ABC News. 7 March 2024.
- ^ "Australian Federal 2pp Estimator".
- ^ "NT Labor still significantly trails Country Liberal Party on a two-party preferred basis ahead of August election, new poll reveals". SkyNews. 16 May 2024. Retrieved 16 May 2024.
- ^ "Northern Territory Social Services" (PDF). Redbridge Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.