The 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Vermont has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
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| Turnout | 73.27%[1]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Biden easily emerged victorious in the Green Mountain State 66.09% to 30.67%, a margin of 35.4%. This is the first time Vermont was the strongest state for either party since 1956, when it was Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower's best state. Vermont also saw the largest increase in turnout from 2016, increasing 14.3%.[4] Biden greatly improved on Hillary Clinton's 55.7% vote share and 25.9% margin from 2016, when third-party candidates received over 14% of the vote.[5] Biden's performance was also the fourth-strongest Democratic performance in state history, as well as the third-largest Democratic margin of victory. Trump carried only one county, sparsely-populated Essex bordering New Hampshire, which had voted for the winner from 1980 to 2016. Consequently, Biden became the first president to win without the county since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Another factor for Biden's improvement was strong support from Bernie Sanders, one of the state's U.S. Senators and a former candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination who, despite endorsing Hillary Clinton, had received 5.7% of the vote in 2016 as a non-soliciting write-in candidate. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Sanders maintained a 63% approval rating among his constituents, and his supporters broke 93% for Biden.[6]
Background
editVermont was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. From 1856 to 1988, it voted Republican in every election except Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide in 1964. However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in Vermont has historically been a moderate one. Coupled with an influx of more liberal newcomers from out of state, this made Vermont considerably friendlier to Democrats as the national GOP moved further to the right.
After narrowly supporting George H. W. Bush in 1988, Vermont gave Bill Clinton a 16-point margin in 1992. Republicans have not seriously contested the state since then, and Vermont is now reckoned as part of the "Blue Wall"–the 19 jurisdictions that delivered their electoral votes to the Democratic standard-bearer at every election from 1992 to 2012, and again in 2020. Underlining how Republican Vermont once was, Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to win the White House without carrying Vermont.
Primary elections
editRepublican primary
editThe Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[8] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 33,984 | 86.49 | 17 |
| Bill Weld | 3,971 | 10.11 | 0 |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 341 | 0.87 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 480 | 1.22 | 0 |
| Overvotes | 37 | 0.09 | 0 |
| Blank votes | 478 | 1.22 | 0 |
| Total | 39,291 | 100% | 17 |
Democratic primary
editThe Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Bernie Sanders, one of the two current senators from Vermont and a 2016 Democratic primary candidate, declared his candidacy on February 19, 2019, after speculation he would do so.[9][10] Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren were among the other major declared candidates.[11][12]
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| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[14] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Sanders | 79,921 | 50.57 | 11 |
| Joe Biden | 34,669 | 21.94 | 5 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 19,785 | 12.52 | |
| Michael Bloomberg | 14,828 | 9.38 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] | 3,709 | 2.35 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] | 1,991 | 1.26 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1,303 | 0.82 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] | 591 | 0.37 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] | 202 | 0.13 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[b] | 137 | 0.09 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 135 | 0.09 | |
| Donald Trump (write-in Republican) | 83 | 0.05 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 52 | 0.03 | |
| Hillary Clinton (write-in) | 5 | 0.00 | |
| Michael Bennet (write-in) | 3 | 0.00 | |
| Other candidates / Write-in | [c]238 | 0.15 | |
| Overvotes / Blank votes | [d]380 | 0.24 | |
| Total | 158,032 | 100% | 16 |
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[15] | Safe D | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[16] | Safe D | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Safe D | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[18] | Safe D | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[19] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[20] | Safe D | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[21] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[22] | Safe D | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[23] | Likely D | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[24] | Safe D | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[25] | Safe D | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[26] | Likely D | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[27] | Safe D | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[28] | Safe D | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
editAggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[29] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 66.5% | 27.8% | 5.7% | Biden +38.7 |
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 906 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 26%[g] | 71% | - | - | – | – |
| co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governor[31][A] | Oct 19–29, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.05% | 32% | 62% | - | - | – | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,167 (LV) | – | 29% | 69% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 427 (LV) | – | 34% | 64% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Braun Research/VPR[32] | Sep 3–15, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4% | 32% | 56% | - | - | 8%[h] | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 236 (LV) | – | 29% | 70% | - | - | – | 0% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 368 (LV) | – | 27% | 71% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 113 (LV) | – | 20% | 75% | - | - | – | 5% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
242,820 | 66.09% | +10.37% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
112,704 | 30.67% | +0.91% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
3,608 | 0.98% | −2.16% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
1,310 | 0.36% | −1.75% | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
1,269 | 0.35% | N/A | |
| Grumpy Old Patriots | H. Brooke Paige Thomas Witman |
1,175 | 0.32% | N/A | |
| Independent | Christopher LaFontaine Michael Speed |
856 | 0.23% | N/A | |
| Independent | Bernie Sanders (write-in) |
619 | 0.17% | −5.51% | |
| Independent | Richard Duncan Mitch Bupp |
213 | 0.06% | N/A | |
| American Solidarity | Brian Carroll Amar Patel |
209 | 0.06% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
208 | 0.06% | +0.04% | |
| Socialist Workers | Alyson Kennedy Malcolm Jarrett |
195 | 0.05% | N/A | |
| Liberty Union | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
166 | 0.05% | −0.05% | |
| Boiling Frog | Gary Swing David Olszta |
141 | 0.04% | N/A | |
| Prohibition | Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker |
137 | 0.04% | N/A | |
| Bull Moose | Keith McCormic Sam Blasiak |
126 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
100 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Bread and Roses | Jerome Segal John De Graaf |
65 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Approval Voting | Blake Huber Frank Atwood |
54 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Independent | Kyle Kopitke Taja Ivanow |
53 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
48 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Independent | Zachary Scalf Matthew Lyda |
29 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,942 | 0.53% | -0.93% | ||
| Total votes | 367,428 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
edit| County[33] | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Addison | 14,967 | 67.96% | 6,292 | 28.57% | 763 | 3.47% | 8,675 | 39.39% | 22,022 |
| Bennington | 12,705 | 62.09% | 7,114 | 34.77% | 643 | 3.14% | 5,591 | 27.32% | 20,462 |
| Caledonia | 9,011 | 55.73% | 6,551 | 40.52% | 607 | 3.75% | 2,460 | 15.21% | 16,169 |
| Chittenden | 74,961 | 75.78% | 21,017 | 21.25% | 2,937 | 2.97% | 53,944 | 54.53% | 98,915 |
| Essex | 1,405 | 42.73% | 1,773 | 53.92% | 110 | 3.35% | -368 | -11.19% | 3,288 |
| Franklin | 13,611 | 52.69% | 11,274 | 43.65% | 945 | 3.66% | 2,337 | 9.04% | 25,830 |
| Grand Isle | 2,905 | 59.88% | 1,810 | 37.31% | 763 | 2.81% | 1,095 | 22.57% | 4,851 |
| Lamoille | 10,240 | 68.66% | 4,163 | 27.91% | 512 | 3.43% | 6,077 | 40.75% | 14,915 |
| Orange | 10,304 | 60.18% | 6,187 | 36.13% | 631 | 3.69% | 4,117 | 24.05% | 17,122 |
| Orleans | 7,147 | 50.70% | 6,512 | 46.20% | 437 | 3.10% | 635 | 4.50% | 14,096 |
| Rutland | 18,230 | 53.66% | 14,672 | 43.19% | 1,068 | 3.15% | 3,558 | 10.47% | 33,970 |
| Washington | 25,191 | 71.35% | 8,928 | 25.29% | 1,188 | 3.36% | 16,263 | 46.06% | 35,307 |
| Windham | 18,767 | 72.08% | 6,440 | 24.74% | 828 | 3.18% | 12,327 | 47.34% | 26,035 |
| Windsor | 23,376 | 67.86% | 9,971 | 28.95% | 1,099 | 3.19% | 13,405 | 38.91% | 34,446 |
| Totals | 242,820 | 66.09% | 112,704 | 30.67% | 11,904 | 3.24% | 130,116 | 35.42% | 367,428 |
By congressional district
editDue to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| At-large | 30.67% | 66.09% | Peter Welch |
Notes
edit- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the primary.
- ^ a b Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
- ^ Including "Blank" (written in) with 8 votes; Ron Paul, Michelle Obama, John Edwards and two others with 2 votes; and 110 other write-ins with 1 vote
- ^ 57 overvotes and 323 blank votes
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%"; "None of the above" with 2%
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Milne's campaign in the 2020 Vermont lieutenant gubernatorial election
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ "Voter turnout" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Map: Turnout surged in 2020. See the numbers where you live". NBC News. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
- ^ Wasserman, David; Sophie; rews; Saenger, Leo; Cohen, Lev; Flinn, Ally; Tatarsky, Griff. "2020 Popular Vote Tracker". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
- ^ "Vermont Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
- ^ ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
- ^ "Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
- ^ "Bernie Sanders Enters 2020 Presidential Campaign, No Longer An Underdog". NPR. Retrieved February 20, 2019.
- ^ Martin, Jonathan; Ember, Sydney (December 27, 2018). "For Bernie Sanders, Holding Onto Support May Be Hard in a 2020 Bid". The New York Times.
- ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Massachusetts". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Ma, John Haltiwanger, Joe Perticone, Alexandra. "Joe Biden is running for president in 2020, warning that another term of Trump would tarnish America's soul forever". Business Insider. Retrieved May 1, 2019.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "OFFICIAL REPORT OF THE CANVASSING COMMITTEE UNITED STATES AND VERMONT STATEWIDE OFFICES PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. March 9, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Idaho Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
- ^ co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governor
- ^ Braun Research/VPR
- ^ a b "General official results" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020. [dead link]
External links
edit- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Vermont", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Vermont: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Vermont". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Vermont at Ballotpedia