The 2018 Arizona Secretary of State election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Secretary of State of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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Turnout | 62.77% ![]() | ||||||||||||||||
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Hobbs: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gaynor: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Michele Reagan was first elected in 2014 and ran for re-election. She was defeated in the Republican primary by Steve Gaynor. State senator Katie Hobbs defeated Gaynor in the general election by a small margin, becoming the first Democratic Secretary of State since Richard Mahoney was elected in 1990.
The race was rated "Likely Republican" by Governing.com,[2] but this did not come to fruition as Katie Hobbs pulled off an upset win which, alongside Democrats' victory in the concurrent Senate election, established Arizona's role as a key battleground state.
Republican primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Steve Gaynor, businessman[3][4]
Eliminated in primary
edit- Michele Reagan, incumbent secretary of state[5][6]
Declined
edit- Steve Montenegro, former state senator and candidate for Arizona's 8th congressional district in 2018[7][8]
- Kevin Gibbons, home loan officer
Results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Gaynor | 414,332 | 66.69% | |
Republican | Michele Reagan (incumbent) | 206,988 | 33.31% | |
Total votes | 621,320 | 100.0% |
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Katie Hobbs, minority leader of the Arizona Senate[10][11]
Not on the ballot
editWithdrew
editResults
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Katie Hobbs | 465,668 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 465,668 | 100.0% |
General election
editPredictions
editSource | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Governing[17] | Likely R | June 4, 2018 |
Polling
editPoll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Gaynor (R) |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital (R) | October 1–3, 2018 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 31% | 3% | 24% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 1–2, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% |
Gravis Marketing | September 5–7, 2018 | 882 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 40% | – | 15% |
OH Predictive Insights | September 5–6, 2018 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | – | 19% |
Results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Katie Hobbs | 1,176,384 | 50.43% | +2.65% | |
Republican | Steve Gaynor | 1,156,132 | 49.56% | −2.66% | |
Write-in | 169 | 0.01% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 2,332,685 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic gain from Republican |
By county
editCounty[1] | Katie Hobbs Democratic |
Steve Gaynor Republican |
Others | Margin | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Apache | 17,029 | 68.33 | 7,889 | 31.65 | 4 | 0.02 | 9,140 | 36.68 | 24,922 |
Cochise | 18,721 | 41.66 | 26,204 | 58.31 | 17 | 0.04 | -7,483 | -16.65 | 44,942 |
Coconino | 34,120 | 63.21 | 19,851 | 36.78 | 8 | 0.01 | 14,269 | 26.43 | 53,979 |
Gila | 7,524 | 37.01 | 12,804 | 62.98 | 2 | 0.01 | -5,280 | -25.97 | 20,330 |
Graham | 3,476 | 32.99 | 7,061 | 67.01 | 0 | 0.00 | -3,585 | -34.02 | 10,537 |
Greenlee | 1,084 | 43.00 | 1,437 | 57.00 | 0 | 0.00 | -353 | -14.00 | 2,531 |
La Paz | 1,608 | 32.06 | 3,408 | 67.94 | 0 | 0.00 | -1,800 | -35.88 | 5,016 |
Maricopa | 713,045 | 50.72 | 692,690 | 49.27 | 85 | 0.01 | 20,355 | 1.45 | 1,405,735 |
Mohave | 18,775 | 26.56 | 51,900 | 73.43 | 5 | 0.01 | -33,125 | -46.87 | 70,675 |
Navajo | 16,930 | 47.06 | 19,040 | 52.93 | 3 | 0.01 | -2,110 | -5.87 | 35,970 |
Pima | 226,034 | 59.24 | 155,501 | 40.75 | 23 | 0.01 | 70,533 | 18.49 | 381,535 |
Pinal | 49,756 | 42.90 | 66,211 | 57.09 | 7 | 0.01 | -16,455 | -14.19 | 115,967 |
Santa Cruz | 9,497 | 71.81 | 3,729 | 28.19 | 0 | 0.00 | 5,768 | 43.62 | 13,226 |
Yavapai | 38,259 | 36.66 | 66,088 | 63.33 | 13 | 0.01 | -27,829 | -26.67 | 104,347 |
Yuma | 20,526 | 47.91 | 22,319 | 52.09 | 2 | 0.00 | -1,793 | -4.18 | 42,845 |
References
edit- ^ a b c "2018 General Election" (PDF). results.arizona.vote. November 6, 2018. Retrieved March 30, 2021.
- ^ "Secretary of State Races Are More Competitive and Important Than Ever". June 2018.
- ^ "Millionaire jumps into race to challenge Michele Reagan for Arizona secretary of state".
- ^ "Could dark-horse candidate be Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan's biggest threat? - Rose Law Group Reporter". December 25, 2017.
- ^ "Arizona Election Information". apps.arizona.vote.
- ^ "Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan to see 2018 primary challenge". Archived from the original on March 31, 2017. Retrieved March 31, 2017.
- ^ "Sen. Steve Montenegro jumps into race for Arizona secretary of state".
- ^ "Crowded race to replace Rep. Trent Franks reshapes state's political landscape".
- ^ a b "2018 Primary Election - August 28, 2018 - Official Canvass of Results" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State.
- ^ "Democratic state Sen. Katie Hobbs will seek to unseat Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan".
- ^ "Hobbs Announces She'll Run for Arizona Secretary of State | Arizona News | US News". Archived from the original on December 13, 2017. Retrieved March 11, 2017.
- ^ "Leslie Pico for AZ Secretary of State 2018 - Take Action". electleslie.com. Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved April 26, 2019.
- ^ "Primary candidates drop off ballot following petition challenges". Glendale Star. Archived from the original on July 2, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
- ^ "Mark Robert Gordon for Secretary of State". www.facebook.com.
- ^ "Arizona native, lawyer Mark Robert Gordon to run for secretary of state". September 29, 2017.
- ^ "Unity, For The Greater Good". June 19, 2018.
- ^ Jacobson, Louis (June 4, 2018). "Secretary of State Races Are More Competitive and Important Than Ever". Governing. Retrieved September 22, 2019.