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2002 Portuguese legislative election

The 2002 Portuguese legislative election took place on 17 March. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

2002 Portuguese legislative election
← 1999 17 March 2002 2005 →
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,902,713 Increase0.4%
Turnout5,473,655 (61.5%)
Increase0.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Jose Manuel Barroso, EU-kommissionens ordforande, under ett mote i Folketinget 2006-05-19 (1).jpg
Ferro Rodrigues.jpg
P Portas 2009 (cropped).png
Leader José Durão Barroso Ferro Rodrigues Paulo Portas
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since 2 May 1999 20 January 2002 22 March 1998
Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon Aveiro
Last election 81 seats, 32.3% 115 seats, 44.1% 15 seats, 8.3%
Seats won 105 96 14
Seat change Increase 24 Decrease 19 Decrease 1
Popular vote 2,200,765 2,068,584 477,350
Percentage 40.2% 37.8% 8.7%
Swing Increase 7.9 pp Decrease 6.3 pp Increase 0.4 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Carlos Carvalhas no XIX Congresso do PCP (cropped).png
Deputados do Bloco de Esquerda (16) (4026598621).jpg
Leader Carlos Carvalhas Francisco Louçã
Party PCP BE
Alliance CDU
Leader since 5 December 1992 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon
Last election 17 seats, 9.0% 2 seats, 2.4%
Seats won 12 3
Seat change Decrease 5 Increase 1
Popular vote 379,870 153,877
Percentage 6.9% 2.7%
Swing Decrease 2.0 pp Increase 0.4 pp
Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

Prime Minister after election

José Manuel Barroso
PSD

These elections were called after the resignation of the then incumbent Prime Minister, António Guterres after the defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2001 local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances were the main arguments of the right-wing parties, which led them to be the favourites to win the election.

With just over 40 percent of the votes cast, the Social Democrats regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists won almost 38 percent of the vote. This was the closest legislative election in Portuguese democracy until 2024. This short distance also appears on the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats fail to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995.

As no Party got an absolute majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition achieved the lowest result ever, finishing in the third place in its traditional strongholds, Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc gained one MP. Turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999 but remained quite low, marking a growing separation between the politics and the Portuguese people, mainly due to the image of the politicians as corrupts and the idea that all the parties are the same.

Voter turnout was slightly higher than in 1999, as 61.5 percent of the electorate cast a ballot.

Background

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See also: 1999 Portuguese legislative election § Aftermath

After the disappointing results of the Socialist Party (PS) in the 1999 elections, the PS government entered in a series of crisis.[1] Resignations of ministers from government and incapacity of passing legislation in Parliament led to controversial, and weird, alliances, like the 2000 and 2001 budgets which were approved by a sole CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) Member of Parliament, Daniel Campelo, in exchange for the government approving a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown, Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district.[2]

Fall of the government

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See also: 2001 Portuguese local elections

The Socialist Party suffered a big, and unexpected, defeat in the December 2001 local elections.[3] The party lost major municipalities across the country, mainly Lisbon, Porto, Sintra and Coimbra to the Social Democratic Party. Due to this surprising defeat, Prime Minister António Guterres announced he was to tender his resignation as Prime Minister in order to avoid the country falling "into a political swamp".[4] Shortly after, President Jorge Sampaio accepted Guterres resignation and called snap elections for March 2002.[5]

Leadership changes and challenges

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PSD 2000 leadership election

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After the 1999 election defeat, Durão Barroso's leadership started to be challenged and criticized.[6] In January 2000, Durão Barroso called a snap party congress to resolve the leadership dispute.[7] Alongside Barroso, Pedro Santana Lopes and Luís Marques Mendes also ran. Durão Barroso was reelected as PSD leader and the results were the following:

Ballot: 27 February 2000
Candidate Votes %
José Manuel Durão Barroso 469 50.3
Pedro Santana Lopes 313 33.6
Luís Marques Mendes 150 16.1
Turnout 932
Source: Results

PS 2002 leadership election

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Following the resignation of António Guterres as Prime Minister and PS leader,[8] the party started the process to elect a new leader. The popular minister in Guterres cabinet, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, and PS member Paulo Penedos, were the two candidates on the ballot. Around 121,000 PS members were registered to vote.[9] In the end, Ferro Rodrigues got almost unanimous support by being elected with almost 97 percent of the votes.[10] The results were the following:

Ballot: 18 and 19 January 2002
Candidate Votes %
Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues 96.5
Paulo Penedos 2.7
Blank/Invalid ballots 0.8
Turnout
Source: Results

Electoral system

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Official logo of the election.

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[11]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[12] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[13]

For these elections, and compared with the 1999 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[14]

District Number of MPs Map
Lisbon(–1) 48
Porto(+1) 38
Braga(+1) 18
Setúbal 17
Aveiro 15
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra 10
Viseu 9
Faro 8
Viana do Castelo 6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real 5
Bragança and Guarda 4
Beja, Évora(–1) and Portalegre 3
Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties

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The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 8th legislature (1999–2002) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1999 result
% Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista 		Social democracy Centre-left Ferro Rodrigues 44.1%
115 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata 		Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism 		Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 32.3%
81 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português 		Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Far-left Carlos Carvalhas
9.0%
[a]
15 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" 		Eco-socialism
Green politics 		Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular 		Christian democracy
Conservatism 		Centre-right
to right-wing 		Paulo Portas 8.3%
15 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda 		Democratic socialism
Anti-capitalism 		Left-wing Francisco Louçã 2.4%
2 / 230

Campaign period

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Party slogans

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Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PS « Fazer bem » "Doing well" [15]
PSD « Somos todos Portugal » "We are all Portugal" [16]
CDU « Mudar para melhor » "Change for the better" [17]
CDS–PP « O braço direito de Portugal » "Portugal's right-hand man" [18]
BE « Com Razões Fortes » "With Strong Reasons" [19]

Candidates' debates

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2002 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PS
Rodrigues 		PSD
Barroso 		CDU
Carvalhas 		CDS–PP
Portas 		BE
Louçã 		Refs
26 Feb SIC P P N N N [20]
12 Mar RTP1 Judite de Sousa
José Alberto Carvalho 		P P P P P [21]

Opinion polling

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See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.

  Exit poll

Date Released Polling Firm PS         Others Lead
17 Mar 2002 Leg. election 37.8
96 		40.2
105 		6.9
12 		8.7
14 		2.7
3 		3.7
0 		2.4
17 Mar 2002 (20:00) RTP1 - Universidade Católica 36.0–41.0 37.0–42.0 5.5–8.0 7.5–10.0 3.0–4.0 — 1.0
17 Mar 2002 (20:00) SIC - Eurosondagem 35.5–39.3 40.1–43.9 6.2–8.4 6.2–8.4 2.0–3.4 — 4.6
17 Mar 2002 (20:00) TVI - INTERCAMPUS 35.5–40.5 37.8–42.8 6.8–9.8 5.3–8.3 1.6–4.2 — 2.3
15 Mar 2002 Marktest 35.2 43.7 8.1 6.0 3.7 3.3 8.5
15 Mar 2002 Lusófona 40.9 43.6 5.7 7.1 2.8 — 2.7
15 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 39.3 41.4 6.9 5.6 3.5 3.3 2.1
15 Mar 2002 Eurequipa 33.9 44.7 7.1 9.1 3.2 2.0 10.8
15 Mar 2002 Universidade Católica 37.5 42.2 6.9 6.8 3.6 3.0 4.7
14 Mar 2002 INTERCAMPUS 39.0 41.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 2.0
14 Mar 2002 Aximage 40.0 44.0 7.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 4.0
13 Mar 2002 SIC/Visão 36.2 41.0 6.6 5.2 2.0 9.0 4.8
8 Mar 2002 Marktest 36.0 43.0 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 7.0
2 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 35.0 38.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 14.0 3.0
27 Feb 2002 Universidade Católica 35.6 43.5 — — — 20.9 7.9
Feb 2002 Marktest 34.7 45.7 6.7 7.3 2.5 3.1 11.0
Jan 2002 Marktest 33.8 41.8 9.6 8.1 2.5 4.2 8.0
22 Dec 2001 Marktest 34.0 39.0 11.0 9.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
16 Dec 2001 Local elections 37.1 41.0 10.6 4.0 1.2 6.1 3.9
Nov 2001 Marktest 35.4 33.7 10.6 11.6 2.9 5.8 1.7
Oct 2001 Marktest 35.9 33.9 10.5 11.5 2.7 5.5 2.0
26 Jan 2001 Marktest 37.0 33.0 10.0 11.0 3.0 6.0 4.0
8 May 2000 Universidade Católica[b] 40.9 32.5 6.7 8.1 3.0 8.8 8.4
10 Oct 1999 Leg. election 44.1
115 		32.3
81 		9.0
17 		8.3
15 		2.4
2 		3.9
0 		11.9

Voter turnout

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The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas. Due to lack of data from the 1999 election, it's not possible to compare the turnout throughout election day between the two elections.

Turnout Time
12:00 16:00 19:00
1999 2002 1999 2002 1999 2002 ±
Total — 18.00% — 45.88% 61.09% 61.48%   0.39 pp
Sources[22][23]

National summary of votes and seats

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Summary of the 17 March 2002 Assembly of the Republic elections results
 
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1999 2002 ± % ±
Social Democratic 2,200,765 40.21  7.9 81 105  24 45.65  10.4 1.14
Socialist 2,068,584 37.79  6.3 115 96  19 41.74  8.3 1.10
People's 477,350 8.72  0.4 15 14  1 6.09  0.4 0.70
Democratic Unity Coalition[c] 379,870 6.94  2.1 17 12  5 5.22  2.2 0.75
Left Bloc 149,966 2.74  0.3 2 3  1 1.30  0.4 0.47
Portuguese Workers' Communist 36,193 0.66  0.0 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
Earth 15,540 0.28  0.1 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
People's Monarchist 12,398 0.23  0.1 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
Humanist 11,472 0.21  0.1 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
National Renovator 4,712 0.09 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,316 0.08  0.0 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
Left Bloc/People's Democratic Union[d] 3,911 0.07 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
National Solidarity[e][24] 0 0.00  0.2 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
Total valid 5,365,881 98.03  0.0 230 230  0 100.00  0.0 —
Blank ballots 55,121 1.01  0.1
Invalid ballots 52,653 0.96  0.0
Total 5,473,655 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,902,713 61.48  0.4
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
 
 40.21%
PS
 
 37.79%
CDS-PP
 
 8.72%
CDU
 
 6.94%
BE
 
 2.74%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.66%
Others
 
 0.96%
Blank/Invalid
 
 1.97%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
 45.65%
PS
 
 41.74%
CDS-PP
 
 6.09%
CDU
 
 5.22%
BE
 
 1.30%

Distribution by constituency

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Results of the 2002 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency % S % S % S % S % S Total
S
PSD PS CDS–PP CDU BE
Azores 45.4 3 41.0 2 8.4 - 1.4 - 1.4 - 5
Aveiro 46.4 8 33.5 5 12.9 2 2.6 - 1.8 - 15
Beja 21.2 - 43.5 2 3.7 - 24.2 1 1.9 - 3
Braga 44.4 9 37.4 8 9.3 1 4.4 - 1.7 - 18
Bragança 53.2 3 30.0 1 10.9 - 1.9 - 0.9 - 4
Castelo Branco 38.3 2 46.1 3 7.1 - 3.3 - 1.5 - 5
Coimbra 41.0 5 41.3 5 6.7 - 5.1 - 2.4 - 10
Évora 25.3 1 42.8 1 4.6 - 21.8 1 1.8 - 3
Faro 37.7 4 40.5 4 8.3 - 6.3 - 2.8 - 8
Guarda 48.5 2 34.7 2 9.6 - 2.2 - 1.2 - 4
Leiria 50.8 6 29.5 3 9.8 1 4.1 - 2.2 - 10
Lisbon 35.7 18 38.7 20 8.5 4 8.8 4 4.7 2 48
Madeira 53.5 4 25.8 1 12.1 - 2.5 - 3.1 - 5
Portalegre 30.6 1 45.2 2 6.4 - 12.4 - 1.6 - 3
Porto 40.0 16 41.2 17 8.4 3 4.6 1 2.7 1 38
Santarém 38.1 4 38.4 4 8.4 1 8.6 1 2.9 - 10
Setúbal 24.7 5 39.3 7 6.9 1 20.5 4 4.6 - 17
Viana do Castelo 45.5 3 35.3 3 10.3 - 3.5 - 1.8 - 6
Vila Real 54.1 3 31.9 2 8.1 - 2.0 - 0.9 - 5
Viseu 52.1 5 31.1 3 10.6 1 1.5 - 1.4 - 9
Europe 36.9 1 42.1 1 5.0 - 4.8 - 1.1 - 2
Outside Europe 66.3 2 21.5 - 3.4 - 0.9 - 0.4 - 2
Total 40.2 105 37.8 96 8.7 14 6.9 12 2.7 3 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

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Aftermath

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After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government, the first since the Democratic Alliance (AD) in the early 1980's.[25] This government was marked by the fragile fiscal and economic situation of the country and the 2003 Casa Pia child sexual abuse scandal. During this government, Portugal became a major ally in the War in Iraq, even hosting a summit at Lajes Field, in the Azores, between the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain, which divided public opinion.[26] In the 2004 European Parliament election in Portugal, the PSD/CDS–PP coalition Força Portugal suffered a big defeat by gathering just 33 percent of the votes, against the 44 percent of the Socialist Party. A few days later, José Manuel Durão Barroso announced he was resigning from the post of Prime Minister in order to become President of the European Commission.[27] Despite pleas for a snap legislative election from Opposition parties, President Jorge Sampaio decided to nominate the new PSD leader, Pedro Santana Lopes as Prime Minister.[28]

Fall of the government

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Santana Lopes government was marked with deep disagreements and disputes within his own party, the Social Democratic Party, which began to damage the government's actions.[29] One of these disputes was the resignation of Youth and Sports Minister, Henrique Chaves, which was a close ally of Santana. This resignation precipitated the fall of the government, with Chaves accusing Santana of not being "loyal and truthful".[30] Just five months after swearing in Santana Lopes as Prime Minister, President Jorge Sampaio gave a speech in which he accused the government of "contradictions and lack of coordination that contributed to its discredit",[31] and used his power of dissolution of Parliament and called a snap election, so far the only time till date such power was used in Portuguese democracy by a President.[32][33] Santana Lopes disagreed with the President's decision but respected it and announced his resignation.[34] A new election was called, by the President, for 20 February 2005.[35]

Further reading

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  • Freire, André (November 2004). "Issue Voting in Portugal: The 2002 Legislative Elections". West European Politics. 27 (5): 779–800. doi:10.1080/0140238042000283328. S2CID 154614163.

Notes

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  1. ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 9% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.
  2. ^ Results presented here exclude abstention (19.7%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 32.8%; PSD: 26.1%; CDS-PP: 6.5%; CDU: 5.4%; BE: 2.4%; Others/Invalid: 7.1%.
  3. ^ Portuguese Communist Party (10 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.
  4. ^ Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union joint electoral list only in Madeira.
  5. ^ The National Solidarity Party (PSN) ran a list in Vila Real district, but dropped out before election day and got just 7 votes. In the certified results, the votes are counted as invalid.

References

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  1. ^ "António Guterres e o pântano ", Público, 31 December 2001. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  2. ^ "Há 21 anos o orçamento valeu um queijo limiano ", Observador, 12 October 2021. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  3. ^ "PS sofre hecatombe inesperada ", Público, 17 December 2001. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  4. ^ "A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 13 October 2016. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  5. ^ "Sampaio assina decreto que dissolve Parlamento e marca eleições antecipadas ", Público, 17 January 2002. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  6. ^ "Divisões no PSD", RTP, 17 January 2000. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  7. ^ "Durão Barroso desafia Santana Lopes", RTP, 19 January 2000. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  8. ^ "Guterres apresenta demissão depois de derrota nas autárquicas (act)", Jornal de Negócios, 17 December 2001. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  9. ^ "Acção Socialista", PS, 10 January 2002. Retrieved 7 June 2022.
  10. ^ "Ferro Rodrigues eleito novo secretário-geral do PS ", Público, 20 January 2002. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  11. ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  12. ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  13. ^ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  14. ^ "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 17 de Março de 2002". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 17 de Março de 2002. Retrieved 2 December 2020.
  15. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  16. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  17. ^ "PCP Legislativas 2002". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  18. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – CDS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  19. ^ "Manifesto Legislativas 2002". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  20. ^ "Debate Ferro/Durão visto por 1,2 milhões de espectadores". Público (in Portuguese). 27 Feb 2002. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  21. ^ "DEBATE: LEGISLATIVAS 2005". RTP1 (in Portuguese). 2002. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  22. ^ "Votaram 18 por cento dos eleitores até ao meio-dia". Público (in Portuguese). 17 March 2002. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
  23. ^ "00, mais de metade dos eleitores já tinha votado". RTP (in Portuguese). 20 February 2005. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
  24. ^ "Josué, o "Marquês de Pombal" do PSN em Vila Real ", Público, 19 March 2002. Retrieved 25 June 2022.
  25. ^ "2002: O regresso da coligação de Direita ao poder", SIC Notícias, 1 October 2019. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  26. ^ "Cimeira nas Lajes", RTP, 16 March 2003. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  27. ^ "Durão Barroso apresenta demissão para ser presidente da Comissão Europeia ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  28. ^ "O dia em que Jorge Sampaio decepcionou os socialistas", Expresso, 15 January 2016. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  29. ^ "As "trapalhadas" de Santana em 2004 (que Rio apoiou e Marcelo arrasou) ", Observador, 21 December 2017. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  30. ^ "Henrique Chaves demite-se do Governo por falta de «lealdade e de verdade» de Santana", Jornal de Negócios, 28 November 2004. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  31. ^ "Jorge Sampaio anuncia a dissolução do Parlamento ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  32. ^ "Jorge Sampaio vai dissolver Assembleia da República ", Público, 30 November 2004. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  33. ^ "A bomba atómica de Sampaio", Correio da Manhã, 10 September 2021. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  34. ^ "Santana Lopes pede demissão do XVI Governo Constitucional ", Público, 11 December 2004. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  35. ^ "Jorge Sampaio assinou hoje decreto de dissolução do Parlamento ", Público, 22 December 2004. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
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See also

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