Wikipedia

1999 Portuguese legislative election

The 1999 Portuguese legislative election took place on 10 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

1999 Portuguese legislative election
← 1995 10 October 1999 2002 →
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,864,604 Decrease0.5%
Turnout5,415,102 (61.1%)
Decrease5.2 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Antonio Guterres 18 Jan 1996.jpeg
Jose Manuel Barroso, EU-kommissionens ordforande, under ett mote i Folketinget 2006-05-19 (1).jpg
Carlos Carvalhas no XIX Congresso do PCP (cropped).png
Leader António Guterres José Durão Barroso Carlos Carvalhas
Party PS PSD PCP
Alliance CDU
Leader since 23 February 1992 2 May 1999 5 December 1992
Leader's seat Castelo Branco Lisbon Lisbon
Last election 112 seats, 43.8% 88 seats, 34.1% 15 seats, 8.6%
Seats won 115 81 17
Seat change Increase 3 Decrease 7 Increase 2
Popular vote 2,385,922 1,750,158 487,058
Percentage 44.1% 32.3% 9.0%
Swing Increase 0.3 pp Decrease 1.8 pp Increase 0.4 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
P Portas 2009 (cropped).png
Deputados do Bloco de Esquerda (16) (4026598621).jpg
Leader Paulo Portas Francisco Louçã
Party CDS–PP BE
Leader since 22 March 1998 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Aveiro Lisbon
Last election 15 seats, 9.0% Did not contest
Seats won 15 2
Seat change Steady 0 Increase 2
Popular vote 451,643 132,333
Percentage 8.3% 2.4%
Swing Decrease 0.7 pp New party
Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

Prime Minister after election

António Guterres
PS

The Socialist Party was aiming a second term under the lead of António Guterres, incumbent Prime Minister, as a good economy and Portugal's growing prestige, following the Expo 1998 and the support for the East-Timor cause, were strengthening the PS position.[1] Polls leading up to the election predicted a comfortable PS majority government. Adding to this, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), was exiting an internal crisis after former leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned in March 1999 amid disagreements with the CDS-People's Party leader, Paulo Portas, regarding a future PSD/CDS alliance for these elections.[2] The party elected, in a snap party congress in May 1999, José Manuel Durão Barroso as new leader.

Despite opinion polls predictions, the election results were labeled as a disappointment for the Socialists as the party failed to win a historical absolute majority by just one MP and barely improved their 1995 score, just 0.3 percentage points.[3] The disappointing PS score would create instability in Guterres second government in the years to follow.[4] The Social Democratic Party was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before, and lost 7 MPs, compared with 1995, and gathered 32 percent of the votes. The Democratic Unity Coalition achieved an important climb in the scorecard, against those who predicted its irreversible decline after the end of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. The CDS-People's Party was able to hold on to its 15 MPs after tensions with the PSD earlier that year. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties became represented in the parliament after electing two MPs.

Turnout in this election was very low, only being surpassed by all elections after 2009 when turnout stands below 60 percent. Overall, voter turnout was only 61 percent of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Background

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Leadership changes and challenges

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PSD 1996 leadership election

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After leading his party to two successive defeats, in the 1995 election and in the 1996 Presidential election, then PSD leader Fernando Nogueira resigned.[5] A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1996. For that leadership ballot, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced his candidacy, just a few days after saying a phrase that would become famous in Portuguese politics, "Not even if Christ descends to earth, will I run."[6] Marcelo faced Pedro Santana Lopes, which repeated his failed bid of 1995. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was easily elected as PSD leader.[7] The results were the following:

Ballot: 30 March 1996
Candidate Votes %
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa 603 66.4
Pedro Santana Lopes 305 33.6
Turnout 908
Source: Results

CDS–PP 1998 leadership election

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Then CDS leader, Manuel Monteiro, resigned from the leadership after the party's poor results in the 1997 local elections.[8] Paulo Portas, which had a tense relationship with Monteiro, announced his candidacy but faced the candidate of the "Monteiro wing", Maria José Nogueira Pinto. The congress was very tense, with strong accusations between both candidates, but in the end Paulo Portas was elected as new party leader:[9]

Ballot: 22 March 1998
Candidate Votes %
Paulo Portas WIN
Maria José Nogueira Pinto
Turnout
Source:

PSD 1999 leadership election

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Then PSD leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa plan to creat an electoral alliance with the CDS – People's Party was splitting his party, but nonetheless, the alliance was approved in a party congress in February 1999.[10] However, at the same a time, a scandal involving CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas, the "Moderna affair", in which corrupt deals and bad management were done in Moderna University,[11] was creating a bad mood between PSD and CDS–PP and, specially, between the two party's leaders.[12] In late March, Paulo Portas gives an interview on SIC that precipitated Marcelo's resignation. In that interview, Portas says that the PSD needs to come clean and say if they trust the CDS leader, and that Marcelo told him that a majority of the PSD leadership doesn't like him and feels he's a liability to the alliance.[13] Feeling betrayed and seeing that Portas was untrustworthy, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned from the PSD leadership. A snap party congress was called for early May, and, as the sole candidate, José Manuel Durão Barroso was unanimously elected as the new PSD leader:

Ballot: 1 May 1999
Candidate Votes %
José Manuel Durão Barroso 100.0
Turnout
Source: Results

Electoral system

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Official logo of the election.

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[14]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[15] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[16]

For these elections, and compared with the 1995 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[17]

District Number of MPs Map
Lisbon(–1) 49
Porto 37
Braga(+1) 17
Setúbal 17
Aveiro(+1) 15
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra 10
Viseu 9
Faro 8
Viana do Castelo 6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real 5
Bragança, Évora and Guarda 4
Beja(–1) and Portalegre 3
Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties

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The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 7th legislature (1995–1999) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1995 result
% Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista 		Social democracy
Third Way
Social conservatism 		Centre-left to Centre António Guterres 43.8%
112 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata 		Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism 		Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 34.1%
88 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular 		Christian democracy
Conservatism 		Centre-right
to right-wing 		Paulo Portas 9.1%
15 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português 		Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Far-left Carlos Carvalhas
8.6%
[a]
13 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" 		Eco-socialism
Green politics 		Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230

Campaign period

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Party slogans

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Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PS « Portugal em boas mãos » "Portugal in good hands" [18]
PSD « Vamos cumprir » "We will deliver" [19]
CDS–PP « Alternativa'99 » "Alternative'99" [20]
CDU « Para que não fique tudo na mesma » "So that everything will not stay the same" [21]
BE « É tempo de ser exigente » "It's time to be demanding" [22]

Candidates' debates

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1999 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PS
Guterres 		PSD
Barroso 		CDU
Carvalhas 		CDS–PP
Portas 		Refs
16 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P P N N [23]
17 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N N P P [23]
19 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P N P [23]
20 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N P N [23]
21 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N N P [23]
22 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P P N [23]
23 Sep RTP1 Judite de Sousa P P P P [24]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date Organisers Polling firm/Link
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP Notes
16 Sep SIC SIC 57 25 — — 18% Neither

Opinion polling

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See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

  Exit poll

Date Released Polling Firm PS         Others Lead
10 Oct 1999 Leg. election 44.1
115 		32.3
81 		8.3
15 		9.0
17 		2.4
2 		3.9
0 		11.8
10 Oct 1999 RTP/Universidade Católica 46.0 30.3 7.5 8.5 2.5 5.2 15.7
10 Oct 1999 SIC/Seeds 46.3 31.5 8.0 9.8 2.8 1.6 14.8
10 Oct 1999 TVI/Intercampus 46.3 28.6 8.3 9.5 3.2 4.1 17.7
2 Oct 1999 Euroexpansão 50.0 32.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 18.0
1 Oct 1999 Seeds 47.0 32.0 7.0 8.0 1.0 5.0 15.0
1 Oct 1999 Metris 48.0 31.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 6.0 17.0
1 Oct 1999 Universidade Católica 47.2 30.0 7.2 7.9 2.8 4.9 17.2
30 Sep 1999 Marktest 46.2 30.7 4.2 10.6 2.8 5.5 15.5
30 Sep 1999 Aximage 49.0 33.0 6.0 7.0 1.0 4.0 16.0
29 Jul 1999 Universidade Católica 52.0 31.6 6.2 6.9 1.9 1.4 20.4
13 Jun 1999 EP elections 43.1 31.1 8.2 10.3 1.8 5.5 12.0
19 Mar 1999 Universidade Católica 55.3 32.6[b] 9.3 2.0 0.8 22.7
Sep 1998 Universidade Católica 45.3 36.1 5.2 6.9 — 6.5 9.2
14 Dec 1997 Local elections 41.3 35.2 6.3 12.0 — 5.2 6.1
21 Mar 1997 Universidade Católica 40.0 33.0 6.5 8.0 — 12.5 7.0
Dec 1996 Universidade Católica 47.0 29.0 — — — 24.0 18.0
1 Oct 1995 Leg. election 43.8
112 		34.1
88 		9.1
15 		8.6
15 		4.4
0 		Did not
exist 		9.7

National summary of votes and seats

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Summary of the 10 October 1999 Assembly of the Republic elections results
 
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1995 1999 ± % ±
Socialist 2,385,922 44.06  0.3 112 115  3 50.00  1.3 1.13
Social Democratic 1,750,158 32.32  1.8 88 81  7 35.22  3.1 1.09
Unitary Democratic Coalition[c] 487,058 8.99  0.4 15 17  2 7.39  0.9 0.82
People's 451,643 8.34  0.7 15 15  0 6.52  0.0 0.78
Left Bloc 132,333 2.44 — — 2 — 0.87 — 0.36
Portuguese Workers' Communist 40,006 0.74  0.0 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
Earth 19,938 0.37  0.3 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
People's Monarchist 16,522 0.31 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
National Solidarity 11,488 0.21  0.0 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
Humanist 7,346 0.14 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,104 0.08  0.1 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
Democratic Party of the Atlantic[d] 438 0.01  0.0 0 0  0 0.00  0.0 0.0
Total valid 5,306,956 98.00  0.1 230 230  0 100.00  0.0 —
Blank ballots 56,964 1.05  0.3
Invalid ballots 51,230 0.95  0.1
Total 5,415,102 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,864,604 61.09  5.2
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
 
 44.06%
PSD
 
 32.32%
CDU
 
 8.99%
CDS-PP
 
 8.34%
BE
 
 2.44%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.74%
Others
 
 1.12%
Blank/Invalid
 
 2.00%
Parliamentary seats
PS
 
 50.00%
PSD
 
 35.22%
CDU
 
 7.39%
CDS-PP
 
 6.52%
BE
 
 0.87%

Distribution by constituency

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Results of the 1999 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency % S % S % S % S % S Total
S
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE
Azores 53.3 3 35.8 2 1.7 - 5.6 - 1.1 - 5
Aveiro 40.2 7 38.3 6 3.5 - 13.6 2 1.3 - 15
Beja 46.7 2 14.5 - 28.3 1 3.9 - 1.6 - 3
Braga 44.3 8 36.7 7 5.4 1 8.9 1 1.2 - 17
Bragança 39.7 2 45.1 2 2.6 - 8.7 - 0.8 - 4
Castelo Branco 51.6 3 32.0 2 5.3 - 6.3 - 1.2 - 5
Coimbra 47.2 6 35.2 4 6.1 - 6.0 - 2.0 - 10
Évora 45.7 2 18.7 1 24.6 1 5.1 - 1.5 - 4
Faro 48.4 5 29.5 3 8.3 - 7.3 - 2.3 - 8
Guarda 43.4 2 39.2 2 3.2 - 9.8 - 1.1 - 4
Leiria 36.8 4 42.6 5 5.3 - 9.9 1 1.7 - 10
Lisbon 42.7 23 27.3 14 12.3 6 8.5 4 4.9 2 49
Madeira 35.1 2 46.2 3 2.8 - 10.9 - 1.2 - 5
Portalegre 51.2 2 22.5 1 15.0 - 5.9 - 1.2 - 3
Porto 48.0 19 32.7 13 6.2 2 7.5 3 2.3 - 37
Santarém 45.5 5 30.2 3 10.1 1 8.1 1 2.0 - 10
Setúbal 43.7 8 18.0 3 24.8 5 5.6 1 3.5 - 17
Viana do Castelo 40.2 3 35.8 2 5.0 - 14.0 1 1.2 - 6
Vila Real 40.8 2 45.5 3 2.4 - 6.8 - 0.8 - 5
Viseu 38.1 4 44.3 4 2.2 - 10.5 1 1.2 - 9
Europe 55.4 2 24.7 - 5.3 - 3.2 - 0.6 - 2
Outside Europe 39.8 1 49.5 1 1.7 - 3.5 - 0.4 - 2
Total 44.1 115 32.3 81 9.0 17 8.3 15 2.4 2 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

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  •  
    Most voted political force by district. (Madeira and Azores not shown)
  •  
    Most voted political force by municipality.

Aftermath

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Guterres second government was haunted by its failure in winning an absolute majority in the 1999 elections.[25] The tie between the Government and the opposition created a series of problems to Guterres as all opposition parties, PSD, CDU, CDS–PP and BE, refused to negotiate with the Government. In the 2000 budget, CDS–PP decided to abstain and the budget passed:[26]

2000 State Budget
António Guterres (PS)
Ballot → 15 March 2000
Required majority → Simple  Y
Yes
  • • PS (115)
115 / 230
No
100 / 230
Abstentions
15 / 230
Absentees
0 / 230
Sources[27][28]

However, after the 2000 budget, CDS–PP was no longer willing to support Guterres and, the solution found was a controversial one: With a sole CDS–PP MP, Daniel Campelo, Guterres secured the approval of his two following annual State Budgets in exchange for the government financing a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown of Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district. The 2001 and 2002 budgets were approved with the abstention of this sole CDS–PP MP:[29][30]

2001 State Budget
António Guterres (PS)
Ballot → 29 November 2000
Required majority → Simple  Y
Yes
  • • PS (115)
115 / 230
No
114 / 230
Abstentions
1 / 230
Absentees
0 / 230
Sources[31]
2002 State Budget
António Guterres (PS)
Ballot → 30 November 2001
Required majority → Simple  Y
Yes
  • • PS (115)
115 / 230
No
114 / 230
Abstentions
1 / 230
Absentees
0 / 230
Sources[32]

Fall of the government

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Despite his fragile majority to approve major legislation, Guterres also suffered with a lot of instability within his own cabinet, with two reshuffles in just four months during 2001. The Hintze Ribeiro Bridge collapse generated public anger against the government, which eroded even more Guterres' popularity.[33] By 2001, the economy was also showing strong signs of slowdown, in a time when Portugal was about to enter into the Euro common currency and was suffering from the global impact of the September 11 attacks.[34] All these problems culminated in the December 2001 local elections, in which the PS suffered a big defeat and saw major urban centers, mainly Lisbon and Porto, swing dramatically to the right-wing, and in response, Guterres announced his resignation as Prime Minister.[35] President Jorge Sampaio dissolved Parliament and called an election for 17 March 2002.

Notes

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  1. ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.6% of the vote and elected 15 MPs to parliament.
  2. ^ Poll with the proposed Democratic Alliance (AD) between PSD and CDS–PP that ultimately failed and didn't run for the elections.
  3. ^ Portuguese Communist Party (15 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.
  4. ^ Democratic Party of the Atlantic electoral list only in Azores.

References

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  1. ^ "World: Europe Portugal goes to the polls", BBC News, 10 October 1999. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  2. ^ "PSD. O dia em que Marcelo desistiu de ser primeiro-ministro", Jornal i, 26 March 2019. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  3. ^ "A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 16 October 2016. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  4. ^ "Os orçamentos do PS e Daniel Campelo ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  5. ^ "Demissão de Fernando Nogueira da liderança do PSD", RTP, 16 January 1996. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  6. ^ "Nem que Cristo desça à terra", NewsMuseum. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  7. ^ "Exclusivo Aconteceu em 1996 - Marcelo eleito presidente do PSD", Diário de Notícias, 31 March 2021. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  8. ^ "Monteiro demitiu-se do PP há cinco anos mas continua à espreita", Publico, 23 September 2001. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  9. ^ "Monteiro demitiu-se do PP há cinco anos mas continua à espreita", RTP, 22 March 1998. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  10. ^ "A angústia do voto secreto ", Publico, 19 February 1999. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  11. ^ "Facturas associam Paulo Portas ao caso Moderna", Publico, 25 April 2003. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  12. ^ "PSD. O dia em que Marcelo desistiu de ser primeiro-ministro", Jornal i, 26 March 2019. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  13. ^ "Marcelo. O show do comentador acaba em Belém? ", Observador, 11 October 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2022.
  14. ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  15. ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  16. ^ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  17. ^ "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 10 de Outubro de 1999". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 10 de Outubro de 1999. Retrieved 3 December 2020.
  18. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – EVORA – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  19. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – PSD – DURÃO BARROSO". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  20. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – CDS-PP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  21. ^ "PCP Legislativas 1999". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  22. ^ "Programa Legislativas 1999". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  23. ^ a b c d e f "Como Guterres mudou os debates para sempre e as arrobas chegaram ao estrelato". Expresso (in Portuguese). 9 September 2015. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  24. ^ "Operação Legislativas no ar". Público (in Portuguese). 8 September 1999. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  25. ^ "A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 13 October 2016. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  26. ^ "CDS-PP viabiliza Orçamento do Estado", RTP, 16 February 2000. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
  27. ^ "Proposta de Lei 16/VIII/1 - Orçamento do Estado para 2000". Assembleia da República (in Portuguese). 15 March 2000. Archived from the original on 9 February 2023. Retrieved 8 February 2024. 2000-03-15 - Votação final global - Contra: PSD, PCP, PEV, BE; Abstenção: CDS-PP; A Favor: PS
  28. ^ Garrido, Helena (15 February 2000). "Imposto sucessório acaba em 2001". Público (in Portuguese). Archived from the original on 8 February 2024. Retrieved 8 February 2024. Na sexta-feira, dia da votação, lá estará o PP a viabilizar na generalidade as contas do Estado deste ano [On Friday, the day of the (first) vote, PP will be there to help approve the State Budget for this year]
  29. ^ "Os orçamentos do PS e Daniel Campelo", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
  30. ^ "O autarca do queijo limiano", Diário de Notícias, 24 September 2005. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
  31. ^ "Proposta de Lei 48/VIII/2 - Orçamento do Estado para 2001". Assembleia da República (in Portuguese). 29 November 2000. Archived from the original on 7 February 2023. Retrieved 8 February 2024. 2000-11-29 - Votação final global - Contra: PSD, PCP, CDS-PP, PEV, BE; Abstenção: Daniel Campelo (Indep); A Favor: PS
  32. ^ "Proposta de Lei 105/VIII/3 - Orçamento do Estado para 2002". Assembleia da República (in Portuguese). 30 November 2001. Archived from the original on 30 June 2022. Retrieved 8 February 2024. 2001-11-30 - Votação final global - Contra: PSD, PCP, CDS-PP, PEV, BE; Abstenção: Daniel Campelo (Indep); A Favor: PS
  33. ^ "Quando Jorge Coelho contrariou Guterres e pediu a demissão: "A culpa não pode morrer solteira"", Observador, 17 October 2017. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  34. ^ " Guterres quer minimizar impacto da crise na economia nacional", Público, 8 October 2001. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  35. ^ "Guterres deve formalizar hoje pedido de demissão ", Público, 17 December 2001. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
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See also

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