Robert C. Cahaly (born October 16, 1969) is an American pollster who founded of the Trafalgar Group. He was a political consultant for Republican Party candidates.[1]
Robert Cahaly | |
|---|---|
| Born | Robert C. Cahaly October 16, 1969 Georgia, U.S. |
| Alma mater | University of South Carolina (BA) |
| Occupations | |
| Organization | Trafalgar Group |
| Known for | Weighting opinion polls to account for a purported "shyness" among Donald Trump supporters |
| Political party | Republican |
Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. He drew attention in the aftermath of the election because Trafalgar had was one of a small number of polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Cahaly stated that Trafalgar's polling methodology was more accurate than other polls because it utilized methods to increase the weighting of "shy, pro-Trump" voters, which he argued were underrepresented in most polls.[2] Cahaly does not disclose Trafalgar's group's methods of polling or its process for ascertaining the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate.[3]
Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly garnered substantial media attention for his assertions that Trump would prevail over Joe Biden in the 2020 election, a claim that contradicted the polling consensus.[3][4] Cahaly's prediction of a Trump victory proved to be wrong, with him (and Trafalgar) incorrectly predicting Trump victories in five battleground states won by Biden.[5]
Early life
editCahaly was born in Georgia and grew up in Pendleton, South Carolina, and received a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from the University of South Carolina in 1995.[1][6] Cahaly is of Syrian heritage and an Eastern Orthodox Christian.[1][7][8][9][10] Starting as a child, he volunteered on various political campaigns, before eventually founding his own political consulting firm in 1997.
Career
editPolitical consultant
editCahaly has worked on campaigns for various Republicans, including governors Carroll Campbell, David Beasley, Mike Huckabee, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Henry McMaster; US Senators Strom Thurmond, Bob Dole, Tim Scott, and Ben Sasse; and Presidents George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump.[11][better source needed]
On November 3, 2010, Cahaly was arrested by the State Law Enforcement Division (SLED) and charged with making illegal robocalls.[12] Cahaly denied any wrongdoing, stating "It is sad and disappointing that in this charged election cycle full of last minute surprise attacks that Democrat Incumbents and power brokers are leveraging all of their influence to create a last minute salacious headline. We are apparently today's target." The charges were dismissed in October 2012.[13] After the charges were dropped, Cahaly filed suit against SLED officials, claiming his constitutional right to free speech had been violated. The subsequent decision of Cahaly v. LaRosa found the anti-robocall statute was a content-based restriction on speech and therefore unconstitutional.[14]
Pollster
editCahaly gained media attention in 2016 for being one of the few pollsters to accurately predict that Donald Trump would carry the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania in the 2016 United States presidential election.[15] Cahaly attributed this partially on the "Shy Trump Voter Theory" that poll respondents are afraid to reveal that they are voting for Trump due to a "social desirability bias."[16][17]
In November 2020, Cahaly appeared on Hannity on Fox News and predicted that Trump would win Pennsylvania, but possibly still lose the state through voter fraud: "He better win by 4 or 5% to make sure he gets victory there. That is the margin he needs to avoid what they will systematically do."[18]
In September 2022, Cahaly, in an interview with Split Ticket, acknowledged methodological changes from his polling of the 2020 United States elections.[19]
The Trafalgar Group's polling numbers were mostly inaccurate in the 2022 United States midterm elections.[20] Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as Kari Lake, Mehmet Oz, Tim Michels, and Herschel Walker, would all win.
References
edit- ^ a b c "Robert Cahaly".
- ^ Cahaly, Robert (October 29, 2020). "Polling Methodology". Trafalgar Group. Retrieved October 29, 2020.
- ^ a b Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (November 8, 2020). "The One Pollster in America Who is Sure Trump is Going to Win". The New York Times.
- ^ Kaut, Kendall (November 6, 2020). "Trafalgar's Missed a Lot in 2018 and 2020".
- ^ Philip Bump (November 16, 2020). "It's important to ask why 2020 polls were off. It's more important to ask what will happen next". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286.
- ^ "GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls"". www.wistv.com. November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
- ^ "Family tree of Robert CAHALY". Geneanet. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Family tree of Margaret Nashawaty". Geneanet. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "The Wellesley Townsman". wellesley.wickedlocal.com. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Pogo After Twelve | News | The Harvard Crimson". www.thecrimson.com. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Robert Cahaly". Trafalgar Group.
- ^ "GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls"". November 2, 2010. Retrieved October 27, 2015.
- ^ "Charges Against GOP Consultant Cahaly Dropped". The Post and Courier. October 5, 2012. Retrieved October 27, 2015.
- ^ "Fed Court rules law Cahaly charged under unconstitutional". The State. Retrieved October 27, 2015.
- ^ "An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S. - AAPOR". www.aapor.org. Archived from the original on April 15, 2018. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
- ^ Kilgore, Ed (July 29, 2020). "There's Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly 'Shy'". Intelligencer. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
- ^ "Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020 - The New York Times". The New York Times. October 9, 2024. Archived from the original on October 9, 2024. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
- ^ Hall, Colby (November 2, 2020). "Trafalgar Pollster Robert Cahaly Makes Baseless Claim: Trump Will Win Pennsylvania, But 'They' Will Steal It With Voter Fraud". mediaite.com. Mediaite. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
- ^ Jain, Lakshya; Lee, Michael; Thomas, Armin; Lavelle, Harrison (September 20, 2022). "What's Going On With Trafalgar's Polls?". Split Ticket. Retrieved September 20, 2022.
- ^ "On Polls, Pollsters, and Pundits". The Tartan. Archived from the original on November 16, 2022.