Public opinion on the 2009 Honduran coup d'état is divided in Honduras. There are three known opinion polls on the 2009 Honduran constitutional crisis. The polls show polarized Honduras. The first CID-Gallup showed support for President Manuel Zelaya's removal from office because of his actions but not the manner in which it was carried out. Subsequent opinion polls showed higher levels of opposition to the events of the coup, though the opinion of the government it inaugurated was more evenly mixed. According to the latest poll in October, only 48% of Hondurans regard Roberto Micheletti's performance as good or excellent, and 50% as bad or poor. Porfirio Lobo Sosa, an opposition member, led polls before the November elections and subsequently won the elections.
Before the coup
editIn a 2008 survey, only one in four Hondurans approved Zelaya - the lowest approval rate of 18 regional leaders.[1] On June 22 La Prensa counted that people had organized 18 Facebook groups against Manuel Zelaya. Tens of thousands Hondurans had joined the Internet campaigns against Zelaya.[2]
Opinion polls
edit Polling organization: Dates of polling: MOE and sample size: |
CID-Gallup[3][4] Aug 2008 – Jul 2009 +/– 3.3% (>1000 adults) |
COIMER & OP[5] 23–29 Aug. +/− 4% (1,470 surveys) |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[6] 9–13 Oct. 2009 (621 individuals) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Do you favor Zelaya's expatriation? | Yes 41% / No 46% / NR 13% | Yes 17.4% / No 52.7% / NR 29.9% | Yes 38% / No 60% / NR 3% |
| Did Zelaya's actions justify his removal from office? | Yes 41% / No 28% / NR 31% | ||
| Favor constitutional convention to resolve crisis? | Yes 54% / No 43% / NR 11% | ||
| Favorable opinion of Manuel Zelaya? | Favorable 46% / Unfavorable 44% | Favorable 44.7% / Unfavorable 25.7% / "Regular" 22.1% / NR 7.5% |
Warm 37% / Cool 39% (Personal opinion) Approve 67% / Disapprove 31% (Government actions) |
| Favorable opinion of Roberto Micheletti? | Favorable 30% / Unfavorable 49% | Favorable 16.2% / Unfavorable 56.5% / "Regular" 17.1% / NR 10.2% |
Warm 28% / Cool 57% (personal opinion) Approve 48% / Disapprove 50% (Government actions) |
| Favorable opinion of Hugo Chávez? | Warm 10% / Cool 83% (personal opinion) | ||
| Zelaya should be restored? | Yes 51.6% / No 33% / NR 15.4% | Yes 46% / No 52% / NR 2% (Full powers) Yes 49% / No 50% / NR 1% (Limited powers) | |
| Elections should go forward even if crisis unresolved? | Yes 66.4% / No 23.8% / NR 2.9% | Legitimate 54% / Illegitimate 42% / NR 4% |
CID-Gallup poll comment
editCID-Gallup conducted a poll in 16 of the nation's 18 departments between 30 June and 4 July, but the results were reported initially to the press on 9 July and 10 July, leading to confusion. Honduran newspapers, such as El Heraldo, and some news sources outside Honduras, such as the Washington Post, reported that when asked whether they believed the removal of President Zelaya was justified, 41% agreed, 28% disagreed, and 31% said don't know/won't answer.[7][8] However, the New York Times, the Associated Press, and others reported, possibly based upon an interview of the President of CID-Gallup, that 46% disagreed with Zelaya's ouster, 41% approved of it, with 13% declining to answer.[9][10]
A blogger obtained the original data from CID-Gallup[11] and explained the inconsistency.[12] CID-Gallup asked two different questions:
- Q: Do you consider the actions taken by Mel Zelaya with respect to the fourth ballot box to have justified his dismissal from the post of President of the Republic?
- ¿Considera usted que las acciones que tomó Mel Zelaya con respecto a la cuarta urna justificaban su destitución del puesto de Presidente de la República?
- Yes 41%, No 28%, Don't know/No answer: 31%.
- Q: Do you agree with the action taken last Sunday that removed President Zelaya from the country?
- ¿Cuánto está usted de acuerdo con la acción que se tomó el pasado domingo que removió el Presidente Zelaya del país?
- Support 41%, Oppose 46%, Don't know/No Answer 13%.
Some press sources reported the results from the first question, and some the results from the second question.
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ "APROBACIÓN DE MANDATARIOS - AMÉRICA Y EL MUNDO, Abril 2009" (PDF). Mitofsky. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2009-12-19.
- ^ "Mel y la cuarta urna pierden en Internet". La Prensa. 2009-06-23. Archived from the original on 2012-08-03.
- ^ Brown, Ian T.; Rios, Jesus (30 October 2009). "In Honduras, Instability, Fear of Civil War Preceded Deal". United States: Gallup.
Results are based on face-to-face interviews with at least 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in Aug. 24-Sept. 2008, and July 11-25, 2009, in Honduras. ...maximum margin of sampling error is ±3.3 percentage points....
- ^ Boz (10 July 2009). "Poll Numbers!!! Divided in Honduras". Bloggings by Boz. Retrieved 13 July 2009.
...these numbers come from interviews done from 30 June-4 July....
[unreliable source?] - ^ COIMER & OP (Consultores en Investigación de Mercados y Opinión Pública) (2009). "Estudio de Opinión Pública – Nivel Nacional" [Public opinion survey - National Level] (PDF) (in Spanish). United States: Narco News. Retrieved 7 October 2009.
Para la realización del estudio se levantaron 1470 encuestas en 16 de los 18 departamentos del pais.... La encuesta se comenzó a levantar el 23 de agosto y finalizó el jueves 29 de agosto. El margen de error se estima en 4.0%.
- ^ "Honduras Frequency Questionnaire, October 9–13, 2009" (PDF). United States: Greenberg Quinlar Rosler Research. Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 November 2009.
October 9-13, 2009; 621 Respondents
- ^ Forero, Juan (2009-07-09). "In Honduras, One-Sided News of Crisis". Washington Post. Retrieved 2009-07-10.
- ^ "Mayoría cree que sucesión fue justificada". El Heraldo. 2009-07-09. Retrieved 2009-07-10.
- ^ Jimenez, Marienela (2009-07-10). "Chavez attacks US plan to solve Honduras coup". Associated Press. Retrieved 2009-07-10.[dead link]
- ^ "??". 2009-07-10. Retrieved 2009-07-10.
- ^ "Honduras: "A Divided Nation"" (PDF). CID-Gallup. July 2009. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2011-07-08. Retrieved 2009-08-25.
- ^ "Poll Numbers!!! Divided in Honduras". 2009-07-10. Retrieved 2009-07-13.