Wikipedia

2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

(Redirected from Andrew Horne)

For related races, see 2024 United States House of Representatives elections.

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the State of Arizona, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on July 30, 2024.

2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
All 9 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 6 3
Seats won 6 3
Seat change Steady Steady
Popular vote 1,680,841 1,551,107
Percentage 51.66% 47.67%
Swing Decrease 4.48% Increase 5.11%
     Democratic hold
     Republican hold


District 1

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2024 Arizona's 1st congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee David Schweikert Amish Shah
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 225,538 208,966
Percentage 51.9% 48.1%
 
Schweikert:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90%
Shah:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     No Votes
U.S. Representative before election

David Schweikert
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

David Schweikert
Republican

See also: Arizona's 1st congressional district

The 1st district is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale. The incumbent is Republican David Schweikert, who was re-elected with 50.4% of the vote in 2022.[1]

Republican primary

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Robert Backie, medical company sales director[3]
  • Kim George, global security operations investigator[3]

Endorsements

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David Schweikert

Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
David Schweikert (R) $3,580,353 $2,889,975 $743,314
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Schweikert (incumbent) 62,811 62.7
Republican Kim George 27,587 27.5
Republican Robert Blackie 9,854 9.8
Total votes 100,252 100.0

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Andrei Cherny

U.S. executive officials

U.S representatives

Local officials

Organizations

Marlene Galán-Woods

Federal cabinet officials

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Organizations

Andrew Horne

Organizations

Kurt Kroemer

Organizations

Conor O'Callaghan

US Representatives

Organizations

Individuals

Amish Shah

Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Andrei Cherny (D) $2,592,326[b] $2,581,642 $10,685
Marlene Galán-Woods (D) $1,776,275[c] $1,773,390 $2,885
Andrew Horne (D) $1,508,528[d] $1,483,737 $24,791
Kurt Kroemer (D) $297,460[e] $297,460 $0
Conor O'Callaghan (D) $2,208,809[f] $2,077,400 $0
Amish Shah (D) $4,930,584[g] $3,432,166 $1,498,419
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Andrei
Cherny 		Marlene
Galán-Woods 		Andrew
Horne 		Kurt
Kroemer 		Conor
O'Callaghan 		Amish
Shah 		Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights[45] June 25–27, 2024 420 (LV) ± 4.78% 16% 14% 8% 1% 11% 16% 36%
RMG Research[46][A] June 10–19, 2024 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 12% 12% 11% – 17% 15% 33%[i]

Debate

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2024 Arizona's 1st congressional district democratic primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Andrei Cherny Marlene Galán-Woods Andrew Horne Kurt Kroemer Conor O'Callaghan Amish Shah
1 May 17, 2024 The Arizona Republic Steve Goldstien
Richard Ruelas 		YouTube P P P P P P

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amish Shah 17,214 23.5
Democratic Andrei Cherny 15,596 21.3
Democratic Marlene Galán-Woods 15,490 21.2
Democratic Conor O'Callaghan 13,539 18.5
Democratic Andrew Horne 8,991 12.3
Democratic Kurt Kroemer 2,356 3.2
Total votes 73,186 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Declared

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  • Michelle Martin[3]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Tossup July 28, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Tilt R October 31, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Lean R November 4, 2024
Elections Daily[50] Lean D (flip) November 4, 2024
CNalysis[51] Tossup November 16, 2023
Decision Desk HQ[52] Lean R October 21, 2024

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		David
Schweikert (R) 		Amish
Shah (D) 		Undecided
GBAO (D)[53][B] August 8–13, 2024 (LV) – 47% 48% 5%
Impact Research (D)[54][C] August 1–4, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 48% 4%

Results

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By county
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County David Schweikert
Republican 		Amish Shah
Democratic 		Margin Total
# % # % # %
Maricopa 225,538 51.91% 208,966 48.09% 16,562 3.81% 434,504
Totals 225,538 51.91% 208,966 48.09% 16,562 3.81 434,504
2024 Arizona's 1st congressional district election[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Schweikert (incumbent) 225,538 51.9
Democratic Amish Shah 208,966 48.1
Total votes 434,504 100.0
Republican hold

District 2

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2024 Arizona's 2nd congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Eli Crane Jonathan Nez
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 221,413 184,963
Percentage 54.5% 45.5%
 
Crane:      50–60%      60–70%
Nez:      60–70%      80–90%      ≥90%
U.S. Representative before election

Eli Crane
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Eli Crane
Republican

See also: Arizona's 2nd congressional district

The 2nd district encompasses much of northeastern Arizona. The incumbent is first-term Republican Eli Crane, who flipped the district and was elected with 53.9% of the vote in 2022.[1]

Republican primary

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Eli Crane

Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Eli Crane (R) $3,935,292 $2,625,043 $1,376,504
Jack Smith (R) $1,350 $0 $1,350
Source: Federal Election Commission[61]

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Eli Crane (incumbent) 89,480 80.5
Republican Jack Smith 21,637 19.5
Total votes 111,117 100.0

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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Endorsements

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Jonathan Nez

Organizations

Labor unions

Tribes

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jonathan Nez (D) $380,266 $154,214 $226,052
Source: Federal Election Commission[73]

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jonathan Nez 62,033 100.0
Total votes 62,033 100.0

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Likely R October 22, 2024
Inside Elections[48] Likely R September 12, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Likely R October 24, 2024
Elections Daily[50] Likely R October 24, 2024
CNalysis[51] Very Likely R November 16, 2023
Decision Desk HQ[52] Safe R October 22, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

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Jonathan Nez (D)

Executive branch officials

Organizations

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Eli
Crane (R) 		Jonathan
Nez (D) 		Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights[76][D] October 10–12, 2024 414 (LV) ± 4.8% 42% 42% 15%

Results

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By county
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County Eli Crane
Republican 		Jonathan Nez
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Apache 9,792 30.79% 22,012 60.20% 1 0.01% -12,320 -38.41% 31,807
Coconino 24,602 35.93% 43,868 64.06% 10 0.01% -19,266 -28.13% 68,480
Gila 17,584 66.14% 8,994 38.83% 7 0.03% 8,590 35.44% 26,585
Graham 101 8.86% 1,039 91.14% 0 0% -938 -82.28% 1,140
Maricopa 99 16.81% 490 83.19% 0 0.00% -391 -66.38% 589
Mohave 87 27.62% 228 73.28% 0 0.00% -141 -44.76% 315
Navajo 26,635 53.36% 23,273 46.63% 2 0.01% 3,362 6.74% 49,910
Pinal 46,905 57.29% 34,964 42.70% 7 0.01% 11,941 14.58% 81,876
Yavapai 95,608 65.607% 50,095 34.375% 26 0.018% 45,513 31.232% 145,729
Totals 221,413 54.48% 184,963 45.51% 55 0.01% 36,450 8.97% 406,431
2024 Arizona's 2nd congressional district election[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Eli Crane (incumbent) 221,413 54.5
Democratic Jonathan Nez 184,963 45.5
Write-in 55 0.01
Total votes 406,431 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

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2024 Arizona's 3rd congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Yassamin Ansari Jeff Zink
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 143,336 53,705
Percentage 70.9% 26.6%
 
Ansari:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Zink:      40–50%
     Tie      No Votes
U.S. Representative before election

Ruben Gallego
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Yassamin Ansari
Democratic

See also: Arizona's 3rd congressional district

The 3rd district is majority-Latino and is based in downtown and western Phoenix.[77] The incumbent is Democrat Ruben Gallego, who was re-elected with 77.0% of the vote in 2022.[1] He did not seek re-election, instead successfully running for U.S. Senate.

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Yassamin Ansari

Federal legislators

State legislators

Labor unions

Organizations

Raquel Terán

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Yassamin
Ansari 		Raquel
Terán 		Duane
Wooten 		Other Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)[109][E] July 10–14, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 30% 4% – 21%
Target Smart[110][F] April 24–28, 2024 404 (LV) ± 4.9% 20% 30% 7% 6% 37%
Lake Research Partners (D)[111][E] April 17–21, 2024 425 (LV) ± 4.8% 32% 21% 8% – 34%
Lake Research Partners (D)[112][E] October 26 – November 5, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 24% 23% – – 42%

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Yassamin Ansari (D) $1,408,820 $506,411 $902,409
Raquel Terán (D) $856,888 $408,902 $447,986
Duane Wooten (D) $36,054[j] $25,477 $10,576
Source: Federal Election Commission[113]

Results

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Democratic primary results[114]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Yassamin Ansari 19,087 44.6
Democratic Raquel Terán 19,048 44.5
Democratic Duane Wooten 4,687 10.9
Total votes 42,822 100.0

Republican primary

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Nominee

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  • Jeff Zink, strength conditioning specialist and nominee for this district in 2022[13]

Eliminated in primary

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  • Jesus Mendoza[3]

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jeff Zink (R) $44,132[k] $47,898 $15,336
Source: Federal Election Commission[113]

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Zink 9,243 65.6
Republican Jesus Mendoza 4,840 34.4
Total votes 14,083 100.0

Green primary

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Declared

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  • Alan Aversa, teacher[3]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Solid D July 28, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Solid D July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Safe D June 8, 2023
Elections Daily[50] Safe D June 8, 2023
CNalysis[51] Solid D November 16, 2023
Decision Desk HQ[52] Safe D October 21, 2024

Results

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By county
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County Yassamin Ansari
Democratic 		Jeff Zink
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Maricopa 143,336 70.94% 53,705 26.58% 5,008 2.48% 89,631 44.36% 202,065
Totals 143,336 70.94% 53,705 26.58% 5,008 2.48% 89,631 44.36% 202,065
2024 Arizona's 3rd congressional district election[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Yassamin Ansari 143,336 70.9
Republican Jeff Zink 53,705 26.6
Green Alan Aversa 5,008 2.5
Write-in 16 0.0
Total votes 202,065 100.0
Democratic hold

District 4

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2024 Arizona's 4th congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Greg Stanton Kelly Cooper
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 176,428 152,052
Percentage 52.7% 45.5%
 
Cooper:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Stanton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Greg Stanton
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Greg Stanton
Democratic

See also: Arizona's 4th congressional district

The incumbent is Democrat Greg Stanton, who was re-elected with 56.1% of the vote in 2022.[1]

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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Endorsements

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Greg Stanton

Organizations

Labor unions

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Greg Stanton (D) $1,541,651 $641,796 $933,196
Source: Federal Election Commission[127]

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Greg Stanton (incumbent) 49,178 100.0
Total votes 49,178 100.0

Republican primary

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Nominee

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  • Kelly Cooper, restaurant owner and nominee for this district in 2022[128]

Eliminated in primary

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Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kelly Cooper (R) $363,908[l] $336,052 $86,600
Dave Giles (R) $69,898[m] $65,620 $4,278
Zuhdi Jasser (R) $428,273 $171,701 $256,571
Jerone Davidson (R) $32,121 $31,096 $1,024
Source: Federal Election Commission[127]

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Cooper 18,902 32.0
Republican Zuhdi Jasser 15,929 27.0
Republican Dave Giles 13,575 23.0
Republican Jerone Davison 10,664 18.1
Total votes 59,070 100.0

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Solid D July 28, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Solid D July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Safe D June 8, 2023
Elections Daily[50] Safe D June 8, 2023
CNalysis[51] Solid D November 16, 2023
Decision Desk HQ[52] Likely D October 21, 2024

Results

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By county
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County Greg Stanton
Democratic 		K. Cooper
Republican 		Vincent Beck-Jones
Green 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Maricopa 176,428 52.74% 152,052 45.45% 6,065 1.81% 24,376 7.29% 334,545
Totals 176,428 52.74% 152,052 45.45% 6,065 1.81% 24,376 7.29% 334,545
2024 Arizona's 4th congressional district election[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Greg Stanton (incumbent) 176,428 52.7
Republican Kelly Cooper 152,052 45.5
Green Vincent Beck-Jones 6,065 1.8
Total votes 334,545 100.0
Democratic hold

District 5

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2024 Arizona's 5th congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Andy Biggs Katrina Schaffner
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 255,628 167,680
Percentage 60.4% 39.6%
 
County results
Biggs:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Andy Biggs
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Andy Biggs
Republican

See also: Arizona's 5th congressional district

The incumbent is Republican Andy Biggs, who was re-elected with 56.7% of the vote in 2022.[1]

Republican primary

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Nominee

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Endorsements

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Andy Biggs

Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Andy Biggs (R) $901,114 $723,897 $412,689
Source: Federal Election Commission[130]

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andy Biggs (incumbent) 91,820 100.0
Total votes 91,820 100.0

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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  • Katrina Schaffner, cosmetology business owner[131]

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Katrina Schaffner (D) $5,426 $1,627 $7,578
Source: Federal Election Commission[130]

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Katrina Schaffner 42,396 100.0
Total votes 42,396 100.0

Independents and third-party candidates

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Filed paperwork

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  • Clint Smith, attorney and candidate for this seat in 2022 (Independent)[132]

Withdrawn

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General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Solid R July 28, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Solid R July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Safe R June 8, 2023
Elections Daily[50] Safe R June 8, 2023
CNalysis[51] Solid R November 16, 2023
Decision Desk HQ[52] Safe R October 21, 2024

Results

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By county
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County Andy Biggs
Republican 		Katrina Schaffner
Democratic 		Margin Total
# % # % # %
Maricopa 202,984 59.06% 140,694 40.94% 62,290 18.12% 343,678
Pinal 52,644 61.11% 26,986 38.89% 25,658 32.2% 79,630
Totals 255,628 60.39% 167,680 39.61% 87,948 20.78% 423,308
2024 Arizona's 5th congressional district election[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andy Biggs (incumbent) 255,628 60.4
Democratic Katrina Schaffner 167,680 39.6
Total votes 423,308 100.0
Republican hold

District 6

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2024 Arizona's 6th congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Juan Ciscomani Kirsten Engel
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 215,596 204,774
Percentage 50.0% 47.5%
 
County results
Ciscomani:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Engel:      50–60%
U.S. Representative before election

Juan Ciscomani
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Juan Ciscomani
Republican

See also: Arizona's 6th congressional district

The incumbent is first-term Republican Juan Ciscomani, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.8% of the vote in 2022.[1]

Republican primary

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Endorsements

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Juan Ciscomani

Organizations

Kathleen Winn

Individuals

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Juan Ciscomani (R) $3,358,989 $961,074 $2,452,350
Kathleen Winn (R) $80,878 $76,802 $4,075
Source: Federal Election Commission[142]

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Juan Ciscomani (incumbent) 59,021 59.2
Republican Kathleen Winn 40,625 40.8
Total votes 99,646 100.0

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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Withdrawn

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  • Jack O'Donnell, development executive and former Trump Plaza vice president[144]

Endorsements

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Kirsten Engel

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

Organizations

Labor unions

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kirsten Engel (D) $2,509,530 $638,525 $1,872,318
Source: Federal Election Commission[142]

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kirsten Engel 78,178 100.0
Total votes 78,178 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Declared

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  • Vance Cast, educator[3]
  • Mark Siarto[3]

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Vance Cast (L) $50,009[n] $36,707 $13,301
Source: Federal Election Commission[142]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Tossup July 28, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Tossup October 31, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Lean R November 4, 2024
Elections Daily[50] Lean R November 4, 2024
CNalysis[51] Tossup November 16, 2023
Decision Desk HQ[52] Likely R October 21, 2024

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Juan
Ciscomani (R) 		Kirsten
Engel (D) 		Undecided
Change Research (D)[157][G] July 9–12, 2024 855 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 44% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[158][H] May 28–30, 2024 300 (RV) ± 5.7% 50% 39% 11%
Hypothetical polling

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Change Research (D)[157][G] July 9–12, 2024 855 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 45% 9%

Results

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By county
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County Juan Ciscomani
Republican 		Kirsten Engel
Democratic 		Athena Eastwood
Green 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Cochise 30,620 65.04% 14,983 31.82% 1,479 3.14% 15,637 33.21% 47,082
Graham 10,534 76.66% 2,871 28.09% 336 2.45% 7,663 55.77% 13,741
Greenlee 2,110 65.77% 992 30.92% 106 3.30% 1,118 34.85% 3,208
Pima 150,660 45.94% 169,358 51.63% 7,959 2.43% -18,698 -5.70% 327,977
Pinal 21,672 55.40% 16,570 42.35% 879 2.25% 5,102 13.04% 39,121
Totals 215,596 50.00% 204,774 47.48% 10,759 2.50% 36,450 2.52% 431,220
2024 Arizona's 6th congressional district election[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Juan Ciscomani 215,596 50.0
Democratic Kirsten Engel 204,774 47.5
Green Athena Eastwood 10,759 2.5
Write-in 91 0.0
Total votes 431,220 100.0
Republican hold

District 7

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2024 Arizona's 7th congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Raúl Grijalva Daniel Butierez
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 171,954 99,057
Percentage 63.5% 36.5%
 
Grijalva:      60-70%      60-70%
Butierez:      60-70%
U.S. Representative before election

Raúl Grijalva
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Raúl Grijalva
Democratic

See also: Arizona's 7th congressional district

The 7th district is majority-Hispanic and covers most of the Mexico–United States border in Arizona, including parts of Tucson and Yuma. The incumbent is Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who won with 64.5% of the vote in 2022.[1]

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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Endorsements

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Raúl Grijalva

Organizations

Labor unions

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Raúl Grijalva (D) $330,251 $223,597 $312,859
Source: Federal Election Commission[163]

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 55,133 100.0
Total votes 55,133 100.0

Republican primary

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Nominee

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  • Daniel Butierez, painting contractor[3]

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Daniel Butierez (R) $6,757 $11,233 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[163]

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Daniel Butierez 24,425 100.0
Total votes 24,425 100.0

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Solid D July 28, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Solid D July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Safe D June 8, 2023
Elections Daily[50] Safe D June 8, 2023
CNalysis[51] Solid D November 16, 2023
Decision Desk HQ[52] Safe D October 21, 2024

Results

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By county
edit
County Raúl Grijalva
Democratic 		Daniel Butierez
Republican 		Margin Total
# % # % # %
Cochise 6,543 62.314% 3,957 37.686% 2,586 24.629% 10,500
Maricopa 22,394 62.00% 13,726 38.00% 8,668 24.00% 36,120
Pima 113,269 65.63% 59,306 34.37% 53,863 31.21% 172,575
Pinal 847 34.28% 1,624 65.72% -777 -31.44% 2,471
Totals 171,954 63.45% 99,057 36.55% 72,897 26.90% 271,011
2024 Arizona's 7th congressional district election[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raúl Grijalva 171,954 63.5
Republican Daniel Butierez 99,057 36.5
Total votes 271,011 100.0
Democratic hold

District 8

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2024 Arizona's 8th congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Abraham Hamadeh Greg Whitten
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 208,269 160,344
Percentage 56.5% 43.5%
 
Hamadeh:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Whitten:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     Tie 40–50%      No Votes
U.S. Representative before election

Debbie Lesko
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Abraham Hamadeh
Republican

See also: Arizona's 8th congressional district

The incumbent is Republican Debbie Lesko, who was re-elected unopposed in 2022 with 96% of the vote (facing only write-in opposition). Lesko announced in October 2023 that she would not seek re-election in 2024.[1]

Republican primary

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Abraham Hamadeh

U.S. Executive branch officials

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Blake Masters

U.S. Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Ben Toma

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Debbie Lesko (not running)

Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Pat Briody (R) $15,618[p] $15,518 $100
Trent Franks (R) $277,352[q] $69,881 $207,470
Abraham Hamadeh (R) $596,623 $347,736 $248,887
Anthony Kern (R) $170,076[r] $99,994 $70,082
Blake Masters (R) $6,377,314[s] $2,026,615 $2,724,434
Ben Toma (R) $576,571 $178,456 $398,115
Source: Federal Election Commission[184]

Polling

edit
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Trent
Franks 		Abe
Hamadeh 		Anthony
Kern 		Blake
Masters 		Ben
Toma 		Other Undecided
Data Orbital (R)[185][I] July 17–18, 2024 400 (LV) – 13% 20% 5% 23% 17% – 20%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[186][I] July 8–9, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 16% 26% 4% 27% 17% 2%[t] 9%
The Strategy Group Company[187][J] June 10–12, 2024 620 (LV) ± 4.2% 12% 30% 3% 19% 10% – 26%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[188][I] May 13–15, 2024 400 (LV) – 14% 16% 2% 28% 8% 0%[u] 32%
SPRY Strategies[189][K] April 24–26, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 9% 16% 3% 26% 9% – 37%
The Tyson Group[190][L] April 20–22, 2024 305 (LV) ± 4.0% 11% 10% 3% 16% 9% 3%[v] 48%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[191][I] January 25–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 9% 24% 1% 24% 3% 3%[w] 35%
National Public Affairs (R)[192][J] December 16–17, 2023 418 (LV) ± 4.8% 6% 37% 3% 14% 7% – 34%
National Public Affairs (R)[193] October 23–24, 2023 301 (LV) ± 5.6% – 31% – 24% 11% – 34%
Data Orbital (R)[194][I] October 19–21, 2023 450 (LV) ± 4.7% – 18% 6% 33% 7% 5%[x] 32%
Hypothetical polling

Abe Hamadeh vs. Ben Toma

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Abe
Hamadeh 		Ben
Toma 		Undecided
National Public Affairs (R)[193] October 23–24, 2023 301 (LV) ± 5.6% 41% 12% 47%

Abe Hamadeh vs. Blake Masters

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Abe
Hamadeh 		Blake
Masters 		Undecided
National Public Affairs (R)[193] October 23–24, 2023 301 (LV) ± 5.6% 36% 27% 38%

Blake Masters vs. Ben Toma

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Blake
Masters 		Ben
Toma 		Undecided
National Public Affairs (R)[193] October 23–24, 2023 301 (LV) ± 5.6% 42% 15% 43%

Debate

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2024 Arizona's 8th congressional district republican primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Key:

 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn

Briody Franks Hamadeh Kern Masters Toma
1 April 30, 2024 Arizona PBS Rick DeBruhl YouTube I P P P P P

Results

edit
 
Results by precinct
  Hamadeh
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Masters
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Toma
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Franks
  •   
  2–candidate tie
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  No data
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Abraham Hamadeh 30,686 29.9
Republican Blake Masters 26,422 25.7
Republican Ben Toma 21,549 21.0
Republican Trent Franks 16,714 16.3
Republican Anthony Kern 4,922 4.8
Republican Pat Briody 2,336 2.3
Total votes 102,629 100.0

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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Endorsements

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Greg Whitten

Labor unions

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Greg Whitten (D) $159,740[y] $129,362 $30,379
Source: Federal Election Commission[184]

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Greg Whitten 47,406 100.0
Total votes 47,406 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Declared

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Independents

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Declared

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  • Jeremy Spreitzer, firefighter and Democratic write-in candidate for this district in 2022[197]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Solid R July 28, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Solid R July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Safe R June 8, 2023
Elections Daily[50] Safe R June 8, 2023
CNalysis[51] Solid R November 16, 2023
Decision Desk HQ[52] Safe R October 21, 2024

Results

edit
By county
edit
County Abraham Hamadeh
Republican 		Gregory Whitten
Democratic 		Margin Total
# % # % # %
Maricopa 208,269 56.50% 160,344 43.50% 47,925 13.00% 368,613
Totals 208,269 56.50% 160,344 43.50% 47,925 13.00 368,613
2024 Arizona's 8th congressional district election[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Abraham Hamadeh 208,269 56.5
Democratic Gregory Whitten 160,344 43.5
Total votes 368,613 100.0
Republican hold

District 9

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2024 Arizona's 9th congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Paul Gosar Quacy Smith
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 249,583 132,640
Percentage 65.3% 34.7%
 
County results
Gosar:      50–60%      70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Paul Gosar
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Paul Gosar
Republican

See also: Arizona's 9th congressional district

The incumbent is Republican Paul Gosar, who was re-elected unopposed in 2022.[1]

Though Gosar comfortably won, with over 65% of the vote it is the worst showing by a Republican in the 9th District as well as also Gosar's weakest performance since he was first elected to Congress in 2010, while Smith's performance was the for a best for a Democratic in this district with less than 35% of the vote.

Republican primary

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Nominee

edit

Endorsements

edit
Paul Gosar

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Paul Gosar (R) $289,507 $290,944 $118,322
Source: Federal Election Commission[200]

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Paul Gosar (incumbent) 89,308 100.0
Total votes 89,308 100.0

Democratic primary

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Nominee

edit

Fundraising

edit
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Quacy Smith (D) $67,034[z] $60,889 $8,232
Source: Federal Election Commission[200]

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Quacy Smith 33,784 100.0
Total votes 33,784 100.0

General election

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Predictions

edit
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Solid R July 28, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Solid R July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Safe R June 8, 2023
Elections Daily[50] Safe R June 8, 2023
CNalysis[51] Solid R November 16, 2023
Decision Desk HQ[52] Safe R October 21, 2024

Results

edit
By county
edit
County Paul Gosar
Republican 		Quacy Smith
Democratic 		Margin Total
# % # % # %
La Paz 5,260 71.81% 2,065 28.19% 3,195 43.61% 7,325
Maricopa 137,529 58.617% 97,093 40.383% 40,436 12.234% 234,622
Mohave 82,372 78.174% 22,998 21.826% 59,374 56.348% 105,370
Yuma 24,422 69.97% 10,484 30.03% 13,938 39.93% 34,906
Totals 249,583 65.30% 132,640 34.70% 116,943 30.60% 382,223
2024 Arizona's 9th congressional district election[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Paul Gosar 249,583 65.3
Democratic Quacy Smith 132,640 34.7
Total votes 382,223 100.0
Republican hold

Notes

edit
  1. ^ This district was numbered as the 6th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  2. ^ $150,036 of this total was self-funded by Cherny
  3. ^ $113,178 of this total was self-funded by Galán-Woods
  4. ^ $1,329,537 of this total was self-funded by Horne
  5. ^ $145,627 of this total was self-funded by Kroemer
  6. ^ $1,118,112 of this total was self-funded by O'Callaghan
  7. ^ $194,325 of this total was self-funded by Shah
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  10. ^ $5,000 of this total was self-funded by Wooten
  11. ^ $30,000 of this total was self-funded by Zink
  12. ^ $50,214 of this total was self-funded by Cooper
  13. ^ $1,255 of this total was self-funded by Giles
  14. ^ $50,000 of this total was self-funded by Cast
  15. ^ a b Trump originally gave Hamadeh his sole endorsement in December 2023.[177] He later issued a dual endorsement of Hamadeh and Masters on July 28, 2024, just two days before the primary election.[178]
  16. ^ $15,618 of this total was self-funded by Briody
  17. ^ $250,000 of this total was self-funded by Franks
  18. ^ $50,000 of this total was self-funded by Kern
  19. ^ $6,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Masters
  20. ^ Pat Briody with 2%
  21. ^ Briody with 0%
  22. ^ Briody with 3%
  23. ^ Isiah Gallegos with 3%
  24. ^ "Refused" with 5%
  25. ^ $23,000 of this total was self-funded by Whitten
  26. ^ $40,000 of this total was self-funded by Smith

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by House Majority PAC, a Democratic group
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
  4. ^ Polling was sponsored by Inside Elections
  5. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Ansari's campaign
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Arizona, which supports Terán
  7. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Economic Security Project Action, a Democratic group
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Ciscomani's campaign
  9. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by Masters's campaign
  10. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Hamadeh's campaign
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by American Principles Project, which supports Masters
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds

References

edit
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Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates

Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates

Official campaign websites for 5th district candidates

Official campaign websites for 6th district candidates

Official campaign websites for 7th district candidates

Official campaign websites for 8th district candidates

Official campaign websites for 9th district candidates

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