Wikipedia

2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

The 2010 congressional elections in Arizona were held on November 2, 2010, to determine who would represent the state of Arizona in the United States House of Representatives. Arizona had eight seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Representatives were elected for two-year terms; those elected were to serve in the 112th Congress from January 3, 2011, until January 3, 2013.

2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
← 2008 November 2, 2010 (2010-11-02) 2012 →
All 8 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives
Turnout55.65%
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 3 5
Seats won 5 3
Seat change Increase 2 Decrease 2
Popular vote 900,510 711,837
Percentage 53.03% 41.92%
Swing Increase 9.00% Decrease 3.55%

The state's 2009-2010 delegation consisted of five Democrats and three Republicans. With the exception of Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had won the open seat in District 1 during the previous election, all members of the delegation were incumbents who had served for at least a full term in Congress. Also, with the exception of retiring Republican John Shadegg of District 3, all incumbent members of the state's delegation ran for re-election.

As of August 17, 2010, Districts 1, 5 and 8, all held by Democrats, were considered to be competitive by both CQ Politics and The Cook Political Report.[1][2] The primary elections for Congressional races were held on August 24, 2010.[3][4]

Overview

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The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arizona. In addition, the voter turnout and the number of votes not valid will be listed below.[5]

Statewide

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Party Candidates Votes Seats
No. % No. +/– %
Republican 8 900,510 53.03 5   2 62.50
Democratic 8 711,837 41.92 3   2 37.50
Libertarian 8 72,216 4.25 0   0.0
Green 3 9,066 0.53 0   0.0
Independent 1 4,506 0.27 0   0.0
Total 28 1,698,135 100.0 8   100.0
Popular vote
Republican
 
 53.03%
Democratic
 
 41.92%
Libertarian
 
 4.25%
Green
 
 0.53%
Other
 
 0.27%
House seats
Republican
 
 62.50%
Democratic
 
 37.50%

By district

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Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:[6]

District Republican Democratic Others Total Result
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
District 1 112,816 49.72% 99,233 43.73% 14,869 6.55% 226,918 100.0% Republican gain
District 2 173,173 64.88% 82,891 31.06% 10,830 4.06% 266,894 100.0% Republican hold
District 3 108,689 52.24% 85,610 41.14% 13,772 6.62% 208,071 100.0% Republican hold
District 4 25,300 27.53% 61,524 66.94% 5,083 5.53% 91,907 100.0% Democratic hold
District 5 110,374 52.00% 91,749 43.23% 10,127 4.77% 212,250 100.0% Republican gain
District 6 165,649 66.42% 72,615 29.12% 11,119 4.46% 249,383 100.0% Republican hold
District 7 70,385 44.23% 79,935 50.23% 8,824 5.54% 159,144 100.0% Democratic hold
District 8 134,124 47.30% 138,280 48.76% 11,174 3.94% 283,578 100.0% Democratic hold
Total 900,510 53.03% 711,837 41.92% 85,798 5.05% 1,698,145 100.0%

District 1

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2010 Arizona's 1st congressional district election
 
← 2008
2012 →
       
Nominee Paul Gosar Ann Kirkpatrick Nicole Patti
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote 112,816 99,233 14,869
Percentage 49.7% 43.7% 6.6%
 
County results
Kirkpatrick:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Gosar:      40–50%     50-60%
U.S. Representative before election

Ann Kirkpatrick
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Paul Gosar
Republican

See also: Arizona's 1st congressional district

Incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. She was elected with 55.9% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+6.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick (incumbent) 46,902 100.0
Total votes 46,902 100.0

Republican primary

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The Republican primary featured 8 candidates seeking to take on Kirkpatrick in the general election. Mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay, who had been the Republican nominee to run against Kirkpatrick in 2008, finished second in the primary behind dentist Paul Gosar. Other unsuccessful Republican candidates included attorney Bradley Beauchamp and former state legislator Russell Bowers.

Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Bradley Beauchamp, attorney
  • Russell Bowers, former state senator
  • Sydney Hay, mining industry lobbyist, nominee for this seat in 2008 and candidate in 2002
  • Joe Jaraczewski, former real estate development company owner[8]
  • Jon Jensen, former Greeley County School Superintendent[9]
  • Steve Mehta, cardiologist
  • Thomas J. Zaleski, President at Thoma Capital Management LLC
Withdrawn
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Endorsements

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Paul Gosar

Statewide officials

Local officials

Steve Mehta

Newspapers

Results

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Gosar, a political neophyte, buoyed by endorsements from highly visible Republican politicians, including Sarah Palin, won the primary with just under 31% of the vote.[11]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Paul Gosar 21,941 30.7
Republican Sydney Hay 16,328 22.9
Republican Bradley Beauchamp 11,356 15.9
Republican Russell Bowers 10,552 14.8
Republican Steve Mehta 5,846 8.2
Republican Thomas J. Zaleski 2,105 3.0
Republican Jon Jensen 1,736 2.4
Republican Joe Jaraczewski 1,530 2.1
Total votes 71,394 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Nicole Patti (PVS)

Results

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Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Nicole Patti (write-in) 23 100.0
Total votes 23 100.0

General election

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Prior to Kirkpatrick's election in 2008, the 1st district had been held by Republicans since this version of the seat was created following the 2000 census.

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ann
Kirkpatrick (D) 		Paul
Gosar (R) 		Nicole
Patti (L) 		Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)[12] October 12–14, 2010 500 (LV) ±4.4% 41% 38% 6% 15%
The Hill/ANGA[13] September 25–30, 2010 403 (LV) ±4.9% 39% 46% 3% 12%
Moore Information (R)[14] August 30–31, 2010 412 (LV) ±4.8% 43% 43% – 14%
American Action Forum[15] August 25–29, 2010 400 (LV) ±4.9% 41% 47% – 12%
Lake Research Partners (D)[16] August 24–26, 2010 500 (LV) ±4.4% 43% 39% – 17%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010
Rothenberg[18] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010
RCP[20] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010
CQ Politics[21] Lean R (flip) October 28, 2010
New York Times[22] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight[22] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010

Results

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Kirkpatrick lost on November 2, 2010, to Paul Gosar and the seat reverted to the Republicans.

Arizona's 1st congressional district, 2010
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Paul Gosar 112,816 49.7
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick (incumbent) 99,233 43.7
Libertarian Nicole Patti 14,869 6.6
Majority 13,583 6.0
Total votes 226,918 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

District 2

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2010 Arizona's 2nd congressional district election
 
← 2008
2012 →
     
Nominee Trent Franks John Thrasher
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 173,173 82,891
Percentage 64.9% 31.0%
U.S. Representative before election

Trent Franks
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Trent Franks
Republican

See also: Arizona's 2nd congressional district

Incumbent Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 59.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+13.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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Results

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Franks won an easy victory with over 80% of the vote in his favour.[23]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Trent Franks (incumbent) 81,252 80.9
Republican Charles Black 19,220 19.1
Total votes 100,472 100.0

Democratic primary

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Retired teacher John Thrasher ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Thrasher has twice attempted to unseat Franks, losing to the incumbent by 19% in 2006 and by 22% in 2008.(campaign site, PVS)

Candidates

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Nominee
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  • John Thrasher, retired teacher and nominee for this seat in 2006 and 2008

Results

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Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Thrasher 32,503 100.0
Total votes 32,503 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Powell Gammill 318 100.0
Total votes 318 100.0

General election

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Results

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Arizona's 2nd congressional district election, 2010
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Trent Franks (incumbent) 173,173 64.9
Democratic John Thrasher 82,891 31.0
Libertarian Powell Gammill 10,820 4.1
Majority 90,282 33.9
Total votes 266,884 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

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2010 Arizona's 3rd congressional district election
 
← 2008
2012 →
       
Nominee Ben Quayle Jon Hulburd Michael Shoen
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote 108,689 85,610 10,478
Percentage 52.2% 41.1% 5.0%
U.S. Representative before election

John Shadegg
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ben Quayle
Republican

See also: Arizona's 3rd congressional district

Incumbent Republican John Shadegg, who had represented the district since 1995, retired. He was re-elected with 54.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+9.

Republican primary

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On January 14, 2010, 8-term incumbent Shadegg announced his retirement at the end of his current term, making the third district an open seat.[24] In the wake of Shadegg's retirement, several Republicans declared their candidacy.[25]

Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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Declined
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Campaign

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Gorman gained national attention during the campaign for an ad showing her firing a Thompson submachine gun,[33] and for her cosponsorship of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill.[34]

Quayle, the initial frontrunner in the race, faced criticism for his prior involvement with the controversial rumour and gossip website "DirtyScottsdale.com". According to the site's founder, Quayle was one of the "original contributors" to the site, which covered Scottsdale nightlife with features including sexy photos of women, and was the predecessor to the gossip website TheDirty.com.[35] Quayle initially denied the rumors,[36] before admitting several weeks later that he did, in fact, write material for the site under the pen name Brock Landers.[35][37][38][39] Newcomer Steve Moak's strong fundraising[40] and television advertising blitz against Quayle saw him to be viewed as the new frontrunner, however he faced allegations that he illegally profited from a charity he had set up, hurt his campaign.[41][42]

Results

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Quayle emerged victorious with 22.1% of the vote, while businessman and political neophyte Steve Moak came in second with 18%.[23]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ben Quayle 17,400 22.1
Republican Steve Moak 14,211 18.0
Republican Jim Waring 13,850 17.6
Republican Vernon Parker 13,411 17.0
Republican Pamela Gorman 6,473 8.2
Republican Paulina Morris 6,138 7.8
Republican Sam Crump 3,886 4.9
Republican Ed Winkler 1,353 1.7
Republican Bob Branch 1,141 1.4
Republican LeAnn Hull 1,044 1.3
Total votes 78,907 100.0

Democratic primary

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Jon Hulburd filed his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on October 16, 2009.[43] The Hulburd campaign got off to a strong start and raised over $300,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009.[44] This attracted national attention with the DCCC naming the race as one of its top 17 races to watch nationwide.[45]

Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Jon Hulburd, attorney and small businessman

Results

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Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jon Hulburd 27,388 100.0
Total votes 27,388 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Michael Shoen 392 99.7
Libertarian Clay Adair (write-in) 1 0.3
Total votes 393 100.0

Green primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Leonard Clark (write-in) 5 100.0
Total votes 5 100.0

General election

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ben
Quayle (R) 		Jon
Hulburd (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[49] October 16–17, 2010 655 (LV) ±3.8% 44% 46% 10%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Lean R November 1, 2010
Rothenberg[18] Safe R November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Lean R November 1, 2010
RCP[20] Lean R November 1, 2010
CQ Politics[21] Safe R October 28, 2010
New York Times[22] Lean R November 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight[22] Lean R November 1, 2010

Results

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Arizona's 3rd congressional district election, 2010
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ben Quayle 108,689 52.2
Democratic Jon Hulburd 85,610 41.1
Libertarian Michael Shoen 10,478 5.0
Green Leonard Clark 3,294 1.6
Majority 23,079 11.1
Total votes 208,071 100.0
Republican hold

District 4

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2012 Arizona's 4th congressional district election
 
← 2008
2012 →
     
Nominee Ed Pastor Janet Contreras
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 61,524 25,300
Percentage 66.8% 27.5%
U.S. Representative before election

Ed Pastor
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Ed Pastor
Democratic

See also: Arizona's 4th congressional district

Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 72.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+13. Since taking office, he has been re-elected nine times with no less than 62% of the vote.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Pastor (incumbent) 24,613 100.0
Total votes 24,613 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Joe Peñalosa, immigration attorney[23]

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Janet Contreras 8,085 60.1
Republican Joe Peñalosa 5,368 39.9
Total votes 13,453 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Joe Cobb 219 100.0
Total votes 219 100.0

Green primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Rebecca DeWitt 148 100.0
Total votes 148 100.0

General election

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Results

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Arizona's 4th congressional district election, 2010
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Pastor (incumbent) 61,524 66.8
Republican Janet Contreras 25,300 27.5
Libertarian Joe Cobb 2,718 3.0
Green Rebecca DeWitt 2,365 2.6
Majority 36,224 39.3
Total votes 91,907 100.0
Democratic hold

District 5

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2010 Arizona's 5th congressional district election
 
← 2008
2012 →
     
Nominee David Schweikert Harry Mitchell
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 110,374 91,749
Percentage 52.0% 43.2%
U.S. Representative before election

Harry Mitchell
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

David Schweikert
Republican

See also: Arizona's 5th congressional district
 

Incumbent Democrat Harry Mitchell, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 53.2% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+5.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Harry Mitchell (incumbent) 29,716 100.0
Total votes 29,716 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Susan Bitter Smith, former Scottsdale city council member, candidate for the 1st District in 1994 and 2000 and for this seat in 2008.
  • Lee Gentry, business owner, attorney, certified public accountant and candidate for this seat in 2008
  • Chris Salvino, surgeon
  • Mark Spinks, realtor[50]
  • Jim Ward, venture capitalist
Withdrawn
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  • Eric Wnuck, businessman[51]

Results

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Schweikert's victory sets up a rematch against Mitchell, who defeated him 53-44% in the 2008 general election.[52]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Schweikert 26,678 37.2
Republican Jim Ward 18,480 25.8
Republican Susan Bitter Smith 17,297 24.1
Republican Chris Salvino 7,156 10.0
Republican Lee Gentry 1,157 1.6
Republican Mark Spinks 884 1.2
Total votes 71,652 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Nick Coons 306 100.0
Total votes 306 100.0

Green primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Ryan Blackman

Results

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Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Ryan Blackman (write-in) 4 100.0
Total votes 4 100.0

Blackman withdrew from the general election.[53]

General election

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Campaign

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Prior to Mitchell's victory over incumbent conservative Republican J. D. Hayworth in 2006, the district had been held by Republicans since 1995, although it had been tending towards the Democrats. Schweikert posted signs across the district calling Mitchell a “lap dog” for Nancy Pelosi, after Mitchell voted for the 2008 bank bailout, the $787 billion stimulus law in 2009 and the Affordable Care Act in March 2010. This despite Mitchell's breaks with the Party on a number of Tax and climate change legislation.[54]

Endorsements

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David Schweikert (R)

Statewide officials

Debates

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Harry
Mitchell (D) 		David
Schweikert (R) 		Nick
Coons (L) 		Undecided
Penn Schoen Berland (D/The Hill/ANGA)[55] October 12–14, 2010 408 (LV) ±4.9% 42% 45% 1% 12%
Benenson Strategy Group (D)[56] October 5–7, 2010 400 (LV) ±4.9% 46% 39% — 15%
National Research (R)[57] October 5–6, 2010 400 (LV) ±4.9% 43% 45% — 12%
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)[58] September 26–27, 2010 400 (LV) ±4.9% 43% 40% 6% 11%
Harstad Strategic Research (D)[59] September 13–16, 2010 509 (LV) ±4.3% 45% 44% 6% 5%
National Research (R)[60] August 31-September 2, 2010 400 (LV) ±4.9% 38% 46% — 16%
American Action Forum[61] August 25–29, 2010 400 (LV) ±4.9% 44% 50% — 6%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Tossup November 1, 2010
Rothenberg[18] Tilt R (flip) November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010
RCP[20] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010
CQ Politics[21] Tossup October 28, 2010
New York Times[22] Tossup November 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight[22] Tilt R (flip) November 1, 2010

Results

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David Schweikert defeated Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell on November 2, 2010, returning the seat to the Republicans.

Arizona's 5th congressional district election, 2010
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Schweikert 110,374 52.0
Democratic Harry Mitchell (incumbent) 91,749 43.2
Libertarian Nick Coons 10,127 4.8
Majority 18,625 8.8
Total votes 212,250 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

District 6

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2010 Arizona's 6th congressional district election
 
← 2008
2012 →
     
Nominee Jeff Flake Rebecca Schneider
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 165,649 72,615
Percentage 66.3% 29.1%
U.S. Representative before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Jeff Flake
Republican

See also: Arizona's 6th congressional district

Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+15.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Jeff Smith, investor

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Flake (incumbent) 62,285 64.6
Republican Jeff Smith 34,137 35.4
Total votes 96,422 100.0

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Withdrawn
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Results

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Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Rebecca Schneider 26,220 100.0
Total votes 26,220 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Darell Tapp (PVS)

Results

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Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Darell Tapp (write-in) 28 100.0
Total votes 28 100.0

Green primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Richard Grayson (write-in) 6 100.0
Total votes 6 100.0

General election

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Results

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Arizona's 6th congressional district election, 2010
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Flake (incumbent) 165,649 66.3
Democratic Rebecca Schneider 72,615 29.1
Libertarian Darell Tapp 7,712 3.1
Green Richard Grayson 3,407 1.4
Majority 93,034 37.2
Total votes 249,383 100.0
Republican hold

District 7

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2010 Arizona's 7th congressional district election
 
← 2008
2012 →
     
Nominee Raúl Grijalva Ruth McClung
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 79,935 70,385
Percentage 50.2% 44.2%
U.S. Representative before election

Raúl Grijalva
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Raúl Grijalva
Democratic

See also: Arizona's 7th congressional district

Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 63.3% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+6.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 33,931 100.0
Total votes 33,931 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Christopher J. Flowers
  • Terry Myers
  • Joseph Sweeney, educator, nominee for this seat in 2004 & 2008 and candidate in 2000, 2002 & 2006
  • Robert Wilson

Results

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Republican primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ruth McClung 15,455 51.0
Republican Terry Myers 7,044 23.2
Republican Joseph Sweeney 3,702 12.2
Republican Robert Wilson 2,737 9.0
Republican Christopher J. Flowers 1,394 4.6
Total votes 30,332 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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Results

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Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian George Keane 159 56.8
Libertarian Andrew Ibarra 121 43.2
Total votes 280 100.0

Independents

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Candidates

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Nominee
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General election

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Campaign

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Despite the Democratic lean of the district, Grijalva faced a tougher than expected re-election campaign following his suggestion that businesses should boycott the state in response to the passing of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill. Both Grijalva and challenger, 28-year-old physicist Ruth McClung, benefitted from outside spending in the final weeks of the campaign, in addition to the national environment favouring the Republicans.[62][63]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Raúl
Grijalva (D) 		Ruth
McClung (R) 		George
Keane (L) 		Harley
Meyer (I) 		Undecided
Summit Consulting Group[64] October 4–5, 2010 1,807 (LV) ±3.0% 37% 39% — — 24%
Magellan Strategies (R)[65] September 29, 2010 686 (LV) ±3.7% 40% 38% 4% 5% 13%
American Political Consultants (R)[66] September 25–26, 2010 450 (LV) ±4.3% 42% 35% — — 23%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Tossup November 1, 2010
Rothenberg[18] Lean D November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Lean D November 1, 2010
RCP[20] Tossup November 1, 2010
CQ Politics[21] Lean D October 28, 2010
New York Times[22] Tossup November 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight[22] Tilts D November 1, 2010

Results

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Two days after the election Grijalva was declared the winner, with his margin of victory being ultimately 6 points.[67]

Arizona's 7th congressional district election, 2010
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 79,935 50.2
Republican Ruth McClung 70,385 44.2
Independent Harley Meyer [47] 4,506 2.8
Libertarian George Keane 4,318 2.7
Majority 9,550 6.0
Total votes 159,144 100.0
Democratic hold

District 8

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2010 Arizona's 8th congressional district election
 
     
Nominee Gabby Giffords Jesse Kelly
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 138,280 134,124
Percentage 48.8% 47.3%
U.S. Representative before election

Gabby Giffords
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Gabby Giffords
Democratic

See also: Arizona's 8th congressional district

Incumbent Democrat Gabby Giffords, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 54.7% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+4.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gabby Giffords (incumbent) 55,530 100.0
Total votes 55,530 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Jesse Kelly, Marine veteran and businessman (no relation to Giffords' husband Mark Kelly)
Eliminated in primary
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Withdrawn
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Debates

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Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jesse Kelly 43,097 48.3
Republican Jonathan Paton 37,066 41.5
Republican Brian Miller (withdrawn) 6,613 7.4
Republican Jay Quick 1,933 2.2
Republican Andy Goss (withdrawn) 502 0.6
Total votes 89,211 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Steven Stoltz, engineer

Results

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Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Steven Stoltz 482 100.0
Total votes 482 100.0

General election

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Prior to Giffords win in 2006, the seat had been held by Republicans since 1985 under moderate Jim Kolbe.

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Gabrielle
Giffords (D) 		Jesse
Kelly (R) 		Undecided
American Action Forum[73] August 25–29, 2010 400 (LV) ±4.9% 46% 46% 8%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Tossup November 1, 2010
Rothenberg[18] Tossup November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Lean D November 1, 2010
RCP[20] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010
CQ Politics[21] Tossup October 28, 2010
New York Times[22] Tossup November 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight[22] Tossup November 1, 2010

Results

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Arizona's 8th congressional district, 2010
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gabby Giffords (incumbent) 138,280 48.8
Republican Jesse Kelly 134,124 47.3
Libertarian Steven Stoltz 11,174 3.9
Majority 4,156 1.5
Total votes 283,578 100.0
Democratic hold

References

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  1. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: House". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved August 26, 2010.
  2. ^ "2010 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART". The Cook Political Report. August 17, 2010. Archived from the original on August 20, 2010. Retrieved August 26, 2010.
  3. ^ "2010 Primary Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original on September 20, 2010. Retrieved August 26, 2010.
  4. ^ John McArdle; Tricia Miller; Steve Peoples; Kyle Trygstad (October 1, 2010). "Southwest: GOP Looks to Pick Up 3 House Seats in Arizona". Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
  5. ^ "State of Arizona Official Canvass - 2010" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013.
  6. ^ Haas, Karen L. (June 3, 2011). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved November 12, 2019.
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  11. ^ LaMaster, Lynne (August 26, 2010). "Paul Gosar Finds Easy Victory in CD1 Primary". Prescott News. Retrieved August 26, 2010.
  12. ^ Lake Research Partners (D)
  13. ^ The Hill/ANGA
  14. ^ Moore Information (R)
  15. ^ American Action Forum
  16. ^ Lake Research Partners (D)
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  18. ^ a b c d e Rothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 1, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
  19. ^ a b c d e Crystal Ball, as of November 1, 2010
  20. ^ a b c d e RealClearPolitics, as of November 1, 2010
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  40. ^ "Moak's campaign cash nearing $1M". azcapitoltimes.com. Arizona Capitol Times. July 12, 2010. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
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  45. ^ Kraushaar, Josh (January 14, 2010). "DCCC telegraphs its top GOP targets". The Politico.
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  47. ^ a b "Full Listing". Azsos.gov. Archived from the original on September 20, 2010. Retrieved September 4, 2010.
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  55. ^ Penn Schoen Berland (D/The Hill/ANGA)
  56. ^ Benenson Strategy Group (D)
  57. ^ National Research (R)
  58. ^ Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)
  59. ^ Harstad Strategic Research (D)
  60. ^ National Research (R)
  61. ^ American Action Forum
  62. ^ Jonathan Allen (October 21, 2010). "Grijalva's plight draws outside cash". Politico. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
  63. ^ Kyle Trygstad (October 17, 2010). "DCCC Invests in Two Newly Vulnerable House Races". Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
  64. ^ Summit Consulting Group
  65. ^ Magellan Strategies (R)
  66. ^ American Political Consultants (R)
  67. ^ Roll Call Staff (November 4, 2010). "AP Declares Grijalva Winner". Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
  68. ^ Tricia Miller (July 14, 2010). "Arizona: Giffords Began July With $2.2 Million in Bank". rollcall.com/. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
  69. ^ Kyle Trygstad (October 6, 2010). "Giffords, Kelly Post Strong Fundraising Totals in Arizona". rollcall.com. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
  70. ^ Roll Call Staff (January 17, 2010). "GOP Recruit Will Take on Giffords in Arizona". rollcall.com/. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
  71. ^ Daniel Newhauser (April 14, 2010). "Top Recruit Gives GOP Hope of Beating Giffords". rollcall.com. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
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  73. ^ American Action Forum
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