Wikipedia

2024 Vermont gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2024 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Vermont, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fifth term, defeating the Democratic nominee, Vermont Commission on Women co-chair Esther Charlestin.[1][2][3] Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.[4]

2024 Vermont gubernatorial election
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
 
Nominee Phil Scott Esther Charlestin
Party Republican Democratic
Alliance Progressive
Popular vote 266,439 79,217
Percentage 73.43% 21.83%

Scott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90-100%
No Data/Vote:      
Governor before election

Phil Scott
Republican

Elected Governor

Phil Scott
Republican

Being frequently ranked as the nation's most popular governor,[5][6][7] Scott has won re-election by continually increasing margins since taking office. Despite Vermont's partisan lean toward the Democratic Party, Scott was expected to easily win.

Along with New Hampshire, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. This was the best Republican performance in a Vermont gubernatorial election since 1946, with Scott winning every municipality (as he did in 2022)[8] and Scott's coattails allowed Republicans to break Democratic supermajorities in the state legislature.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Withdrawn

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  • Peter Duval, former Underhill selectman and independent candidate for governor in 2022 (ran as a Democrat)[10]

Results

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Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 23,173 92.75%
Republican Undervotes[a] 1,357 5.43%
Write-in 448 1.79%
Republican Overvotes 7 0.03%
Total votes 23,565 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Peter Duval, former Underhill selectman and independent candidate for governor in 2022[13]

Declined

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Endorsements

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Esther Charlestin
Political parties

Results

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Results by county:
  Charlestin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Esther Charlestin 24,007 46.19%
Democratic Undervotes[a] 13,404 25.79%
Democratic Peter Duval 9,377 18.04%
Republican Phil Scott (write-in) 4,558 8.77%
Write-in Misc. Write-ins 601 1.56%
Democratic Overvotes 22 0.04%
Total votes 51,969 100%

Progressive primary

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Candidates

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Withdrew after nomination

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  • Marielle Blais, speech-language pathologist and nominee for state auditor in 2022[13][19]

Results

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Progressive primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Progressive Marielle Blais 268 64.73%
Progressive Undervotes[a] 71 17.11%
Republican Phil Scott (write-in) 35 8.45%
Democratic Esther Charlestin (write-in) 21 5.07%
Write-in Misc. Write-ins 19 4.59%
Total votes 414 100%

Independent and third party candidates

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Declared

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General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Solid R June 13, 2024
Inside Elections[23] Solid R July 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] Safe R June 4, 2024
RCP[25] Solid R July 13, 2024
Elections Daily[26] Safe R July 12, 2023
CNalysis[27] Solid R August 17, 2024

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Phil
Scott (R) 		Esther
Charlestin (D) 		Kevin
Hoyt (I) 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire October 29 – November 2, 2024 1,167 (LV) ± 2.9% 65% 26% 2% 2%[c] 4%
University of New Hampshire August 15–19, 2024 924 (LV) ± 3.2% 56% 28% 5% 2%[d] 10%

Results

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2024 Vermont gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 266,428 73.6
Democratic/Progressive Esther Charlestin 79,217 21.9
Green Mountain Peace and Justice June Goodband 4,511 1.2
Independent Kevin Hoyt 9,362 2.6
Independent Poa Mutino 2,414 0.7
Write-in 81 0.3
Total votes 362,013 100.0
Republican hold

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c Blank ballots
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Goodband (GMPaJ) with 1%
  4. ^ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 2%; Goodband (GMPaJ) and Mutino (I) with 0%

References

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  1. ^ Kinzel, Bob (October 19, 2023). "If Gov. Phil Scott runs for reelection, he will remain a Republican". Vermont Public. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  2. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (August 13, 2024). "Esther Charlestin wins Democratic gubernatorial nod while statewide incumbents cruise to primary victories". VTDigger. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
  3. ^ Thomas, Steff Danielle (November 5, 2024). "GOP Gov. Phil Scott wins reelection in blue Vermont". The Hill. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  4. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  5. ^ "Poll finds Scott retains highest approval rating among governors in US". WCAX News. July 24, 2023. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
  6. ^ Mueller, Julia (January 12, 2023). "Here are America's most popular and least popular governors". The Hill. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
  7. ^ MultiState. "Decoding 2023 Gubernatorial Approval Ratings". MultiState. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
  8. ^ McDonald, Zoe. "Vermont election updates: Scott, Rodgers and legislative candidates give strong showing". Vermont Public. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  9. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 11, 2024). "Phil Scott to seek 5th term as governor". VTDigger. Retrieved May 11, 2024.
  10. ^ a b Mearhoff, Sarah (August 5, 2024). "Several Democratic primaries feature candidates with conservative ties". VTDigger. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  11. ^ a b c Secretary of State of Vermont (August 13, 2024). "Vermont Election Night Results". electionresults.vermont.gov. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  12. ^ Stolk, Babette (January 5, 2024). "Middlebury educator and consultant Esther Charlestin announces run for governor". VTDigger. Retrieved January 8, 2024.
  13. ^ a b Mearhoff, Sarah (May 30, 2024). "As filing deadline passes, Vermont appears set for a sleepier statewide election season". VTDigger. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
  14. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024). "Howard Dean will not run for governor of Vermont". VTDigger. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  15. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (October 17, 2023). "State Rep. Caleb Elder floats a 2024 race for governor". VTDigger. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  16. ^ Flowers, John (March 15, 2024). "Starksboro Rep. Caleb Elder to run for state Senate". Addison County Independent. Retrieved March 30, 2024.
  17. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024). "Howard Dean, Miro Weinberger rule out runs for governor of Vermont". VTDigger. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  18. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2024). "David Zuckerman is seeking reelection to lieutenant governor's office". VTDigger. Retrieved May 2, 2024. With his reelection announcement Thursday, Zuckerman largely quashed any rumors that he would try to make the jump to higher office this year, either again to the governor's office or to Washington
  19. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (August 21, 2024). "With primary results certified, Vermont's 2024 candidates are set". VTDigger. Retrieved August 21, 2024.
  20. ^ a b "General Election Candidates". Vermont Secretary of State. May 13, 2024.
  21. ^ Cusanelli, Michael (May 20, 2024). "Political newcomer Poa Mutino announces campaign to become governor of Vermont". WPTZ. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
  22. ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  23. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  24. ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  25. ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  26. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  27. ^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
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Official campaign websites
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