The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Ohio had 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
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Republican Donald Trump ultimately won Ohio for the third straight election, defeating Democrat Kamala Harris by 11.21%, the widest presidential margin of victory in the state since fellow Republican Ronald Reagan's 18.76% in 1984. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Ohio a state Trump would once again win, or a likely red state. A former bellwether state, Ohio has not been won by a Democrat at the presidential level since fellow Midwesterner Barack Obama did in 2012 and since then has been trending towards the GOP, with the state nowadays being moderately to strongly Republican and Trump's 2024 statewide victory being the first double-digit win at the presidential level for Ohio since Republican George H.W. Bush's 10.85% in 1988.
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editThe Ohio Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside the Arizona, Illinois, and Kansas primaries.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 461,558 | 87.06% | 124 | ||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 68,629 | 12.94% | 3 | ||
| Total: | 530,187 | 100.00% | 127 | 16 | 133 |
Republican primary
editThe Ohio Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 896,059 | 79.21% | 79 | 79 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 162,563 | 14.37% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 38,089 | 3.37% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 20,027 | 1.77% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 14,450 | 1.28% | |||
| Total: | 1,131,188 | 100.00% | 79 | 79 | |
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[4] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[5] | Likely R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Safe R | June 13, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[8] | Likely R | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[9] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[10] | Safe R | November 1, 2024 |
| 538[11] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
| NBC News[12] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[13] | Safe R | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[14] | Likely R | November 1, 2024 |
Democratic ballot access controversy
editDue to the Democratic National Convention taking place on August 19, 2024, which occurs more than a week after the August 7 deadline to certify a presidential candidate for office, under ordinary rules, the eventual Democratic nominee would be disqualified from the ballot.[15][16] Efforts to create an emergency fix had stalled in the Ohio Legislature. The state House adjourned without considering a fix on May 8.[17] On May 21, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose provided an update confirming that efforts to rectify the situation were at an impasse, as the state legislature would not take up the issue and the Ohio Democratic Party had offered no "legally acceptable remedy" up to that point. He further clarified that if the party does not work toward a solution themselves, their presidential nominee will not be listed on the November ballot.[18]
On May 23, Governor Mike DeWine called for a special legislative session and tasked lawmakers with ensuring Biden's inclusion on the ballot. Republican leaders in the state Senate, with DeWine's support, hope to pass a bill that will tie solving the ballot access issue to a ban on foreign contributions toward ballot measure efforts in the state. Ohio Democratic Party chair Elizabeth Walters and state House minority leader Allison Russo have signaled their opposition to the ban, which has been described as a poison pill amendment; a spokesperson for DeWine later said that a bill dealing only with the ballot access issue could also be considered.[19]
After the state legislature appeared unable to address the issue, the Democratic Party announced on May 28 that a virtual roll call nomination, similar to the process used by the party in 2020, would take place two weeks before the 2024 Democratic National Convention to nominate Biden and meet Ohio's deadline.[20] Nonetheless, the Ohio legislature passed a bill on June 1 extending the deadline to August 23,[21] which DeWine signed on June 2.[22] However, because the law did not take effect until September 1, Democrats continued with the roll call to meet the original deadline.[23]
Green Party ballot access controversy
editGreen Party nominee Jill Stein also appeared on the ballot, though votes for her did not count due to her nominating a running mate after the state deadline. Citing the law that allowed Joe Biden to be nominated, the Green Party attempted to use this exact ruling in their favor to swap VP candidates. However, VP candidate Anita Rios testified in federal court that she did not sign the withdraw form and that someone unknown to the Stein campaign submitted a forgery of her signature. The Green Party argued that the Secretary of State should have never accepted the withdraw letter, saying the signature of Rios was a PDF copy from her 2014 governorship candidacy paperwork.[24] The Stein campaign stated that a letter to the Ohio Secretary of State requesting removal from the ballot was "fraudulent".[25]
A hearing to restore ballot access for Stein was scheduled for October 22, in which the federal courts abstained from making a ruling on the case. The Stein campaign and the Ohio Green Party announced that they will continue the lawsuit to make the votes for Stein-Rios in Ohio count.[26]
Polling
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 22 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 44.3% | 52.0% | 3.7% | Trump +7.7% |
| 538 | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 43.4% | 52.3% | 4.3% | Trump +8.8% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 44.6% | 52.2% | 3.2% | Trump +7.6% |
| Average | 44.1% | 52.2% | 3.7% | Trump +8.1% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[27] | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[28] | November 2–4, 2024 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 45% | 3%[c] |
| Emerson College[29][A] | October 30 − November 2, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 54% | 42% | 4%[d] |
| 54.7%[e] | 43.5% | 1.9% | ||||
| Morning Consult[30] | October 23 − November 1, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[31][B] | October 25–28, 2024 | 1,127 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 46% | 2%[f] |
| ActiVote[32] | October 5−28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| CES/YouGov[33] | October 1–25, 2024 | 3,120 (A) | – | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| 3,091 (LV) | 52% | 45% | 3% | |||
| J.L. Partners[34] | October 22−24, 2024 | 997 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
| University of Akron[35] | September 12 – October 24, 2024 | 1,241 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov[36] | October 10−21, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | 5%[g] |
| Morning Consult[30] | October 6−15, 2024 | 1,243 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[37][C] | October 9−14, 2024 | 1,051 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 44% | 5%[c] |
| Washington Post[38] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 44% | 5%[h] |
| 1,002 (LV) | 51% | 45% | 4%[i] | |||
| Marist College[39] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,511 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 46% | 2%[j] |
| 1,327 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 46% | 2%[j] | ||
| ActiVote[40] | August 28 – September 30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov[41] | September 18–27, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 44% | 5%[k] |
| New York Times/Siena College[42] | September 21–26, 2024 | 687 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| 687 (LV) | 50% | 44% | 6% | |||
| RMG Research[43][D] | September 18−20, 2024 | 757 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 43% | 3%[l] |
| Morning Consult[30] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,488 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 43% | 5% |
| Morning Consult[30] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,558 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
| Emerson College[44] | September 3–5, 2024 | 945 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 43% | 4% |
| 54%[m] | 45% | 1%[i] | ||||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[45][E] | August 31 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 52% | 43% | 5% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| ActiVote[46] | August 2–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – |
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[47][F] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[48][G] | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Ohio Northern University[49] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[27] | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | – |
| Focaldata[50] | October 3 – November 1, 2024 | 2,161 (LV) | – | 53% | 44% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| 1,867 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 52% | 45% | – | 0% | 2% | 1% | ||
| 2,161 (A) | – | 53% | 42% | – | 0% | 2% | 3% | ||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[51][H] | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 2%[f] |
| New York Times/Siena College[42] | September 21–26, 2024 | 687 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| 687 (LV) | 49% | 43% | – | 2% | 2% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami University[52] | October 28–30, 2024 | 859 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 46% | 0% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 851 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 0% | – | 0% | 0% | 3% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[47][F] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 50% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[48][G] | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 9% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R)[53] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% |
| National Public Affairs[54] | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 46% | – |
| John Zogby Strategies[55][I] | April 13–21, 2024 | 643 (LV) | – | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[56] | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Ohio Northern University[49] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Emerson College[57][J] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| 55%[m] | 45% | – | ||||
| Emerson College[58][J] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1,844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 47% | 36% | 17%[n] |
| Emerson College/WJW-TV[59] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Data for Progress (D)[60] | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
| Ohio Northern University[61] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 40% | 15%[o] |
| Emerson College[62] | October 2–4, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 33% | 23% |
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[63] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Ohio Northern University[64] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Targoz Market Research[65] | November 2–6, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
| Emerson College[66] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Ohio Northern University/Lucid[67] | October 11–15, 2022 | 668 (LV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
| Emerson College[68] | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Emerson College[69] | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[70] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Emerson College[71] | August 15–16, 2022 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[72][K] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College[73] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,137 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| National Public Affairs[54] | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 3% | – |
| East Carolina University[74] | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[57][J] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College/WJW-TV[59] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden. vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[49] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 32% | 13% | 11% |
| Ohio Northern University[61] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12%[g] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[63] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 9% | 10% |
| 42% | 34% | 6% | 18%[p] | ||||
| Suffolk University/USA Today[75] | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 2% | 16% |
Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[49] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 33% | 16% |
Donald Trump vs. Gretchen Whitmer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[49] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 34% | 15% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[55][I] | April 13–21, 2024 | 643 (LV) | – | 47% | 39% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[55][I] | April 13–21, 2024 | 643 (LV) | – | 55% | 34% | 11% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[61] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | 30%[q] |
| Ohio Northern University[64] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[61] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 41% | 21%[o] |
| Ohio Northern University[64] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Emerson College[68] | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College[69] | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[70] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Ron Desantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ron Desantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University/USA Today[75] | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 22% |
Chris Christie vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[64] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 33% | 39% | 28% |
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[61] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 38% | 24%[q] |
| Ohio Northern University[64] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 38% | 25% |
Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[64] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 39% | 23% |
Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Causeway Solutions[76] | May 19–27, 2023 | 1,639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 33% | 22% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 3,180,116 | 55.14% | +1.87% | ||
| Democratic | 2,533,699 | 43.93% | −1.31% | ||
| Libertarian | 28,200 | 0.49% | −0.65% | ||
| Independent |
|
12,805 | 0.22% | +0.22% | |
| American Solidarity |
|
10,197 | 0.18% | +0.18% | |
| Green |
|
N/A | N/A | −0.32% | |
| Write-in | 2,771 | 0.05% | +0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 5,767,788 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
edit| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 10,269 | 82.62% | 2,098 | 16.88% | 62 | 0.50% | 8,171 | 65.74% | 12,429 |
| Allen | 33,201 | 71.28% | 12,754 | 27.38% | 621 | 1.34% | 20,447 | 43.90% | 46,576 |
| Ashland | 19,863 | 74.31% | 6,544 | 24.48% | 323 | 1.21% | 13,319 | 49.83% | 26,730 |
| Ashtabula | 27,656 | 63.47% | 15,345 | 35.22% | 574 | 1.31% | 12,311 | 28.25% | 43,575 |
| Athens | 11,369 | 43.70% | 14,134 | 54.33% | 511 | 1.97% | −2,765 | −10.63% | 26,014 |
| Auglaize | 20,988 | 81.57% | 4,442 | 17.26% | 300 | 1.17% | 16,546 | 64.31% | 25,730 |
| Belmont | 22,758 | 73.30% | 8,080 | 26.02% | 211 | 0.68% | 14,678 | 47.28% | 31,049 |
| Brown | 17,257 | 80.22% | 4,069 | 18.92% | 186 | 0.86% | 13,188 | 61.30% | 21,512 |
| Butler | 114,831 | 62.66% | 66,713 | 36.41% | 1,708 | 0.93% | 48,118 | 26.25% | 183,252 |
| Carroll | 10,634 | 76.76% | 3,071 | 22.17% | 148 | 1.07% | 7,563 | 54.59% | 13,853 |
| Champaign | 15,334 | 74.57% | 4,944 | 24.04% | 286 | 1.39% | 10,390 | 50.53% | 20,564 |
| Clark | 40,403 | 63.92% | 21,847 | 34.56% | 956 | 1.52% | 18,556 | 29.36% | 63,206 |
| Clermont | 76,964 | 67.11% | 36,130 | 31.50% | 1,589 | 1.39% | 40,834 | 35.61% | 114,683 |
| Clinton | 15,984 | 76.59% | 4,633 | 22.20% | 253 | 1.21% | 11,351 | 54.39% | 20,870 |
| Columbiana | 35,607 | 73.80% | 12,064 | 25.01% | 575 | 1.19% | 23,543 | 48.79% | 48,246 |
| Coshocton | 12,362 | 75.29% | 3,835 | 23.36% | 223 | 1.35% | 8,527 | 51.93% | 16,420 |
| Crawford | 15,402 | 75.74% | 4,683 | 23.03% | 251 | 1.23% | 10,719 | 52.71% | 20,336 |
| Cuyahoga | 195,164 | 33.74% | 376,384 | 66.36% | 6,820 | 1.18% | −181,220 | −32.62% | 578,368 |
| Darke | 22,234 | 82.01% | 4,583 | 16.90% | 295 | 1.09% | 17,651 | 65.11% | 27,112 |
| Defiance | 13,302 | 69.07% | 5,667 | 29.42% | 291 | 1.51% | 7,635 | 39.65% | 19,260 |
| Delaware | 70,448 | 52.42% | 61,657 | 45.88% | 2,278 | 1.70% | 8,791 | 6.54% | 134,383 |
| Erie | 22,493 | 56.32% | 16,871 | 42.24% | 573 | 1.44% | 5,622 | 14.08% | 39,937 |
| Fairfield | 51,999 | 61.57% | 31,695 | 37.53% | 763 | 0.90% | 20,304 | 24.04% | 84,457 |
| Fayette | 9,706 | 76.95% | 2,773 | 21.98% | 135 | 1.07% | 6,933 | 54.97% | 12,614 |
| Franklin | 210,830 | 34.89% | 380,518 | 62.98% | 12,836 | 2.13% | −169,688 | −28.09% | 604,184 |
| Fulton | 15,893 | 70.44% | 6,374 | 28.25% | 297 | 1.31% | 9,519 | 42.19% | 22,564 |
| Gallia | 10,314 | 79.13% | 2,592 | 19.89% | 128 | 0.98% | 7,722 | 59.24% | 13,034 |
| Geauga | 33,844 | 61.32% | 20,604 | 37.33% | 741 | 1.35% | 13,240 | 23.99% | 55,189 |
| Greene | 53,399 | 58.87% | 35,575 | 39.22% | 1,733 | 1.91% | 17,824 | 19.65% | 90,707 |
| Guernsey | 13,314 | 75.54% | 4,154 | 23.57% | 158 | 0.89% | 9,160 | 51.97% | 17,626 |
| Hamilton | 172,365 | 41.87% | 233,360 | 56.69% | 5,931 | 1.44% | −60,995 | −14.82% | 411,656 |
| Hancock | 26,052 | 68.53% | 11,467 | 30.16% | 499 | 1.31% | 14,585 | 38.37% | 38,018 |
| Hardin | 9,911 | 76.78% | 2,863 | 22.18% | 134 | 1.04% | 7,048 | 54.60% | 12,908 |
| Harrison | 5,484 | 77.02% | 1,559 | 21.90% | 77 | 1.08% | 3,925 | 55.12% | 7,120 |
| Henry | 10,873 | 72.61% | 3,905 | 26.08% | 197 | 1.31% | 6,968 | 46.53% | 14,975 |
| Highland | 16,269 | 81.32% | 3,609 | 18.04% | 127 | 0.64% | 12,660 | 63.28% | 20,005 |
| Hocking | 9,679 | 71.63% | 3,704 | 27.41% | 129 | 0.96% | 5,975 | 44.22% | 13,512 |
| Holmes | 10,384 | 83.84% | 1,854 | 14.97% | 148 | 1.19% | 8,530 | 68.87% | 12,386 |
| Huron | 19,484 | 71.26% | 7,496 | 27.41% | 364 | 1.33% | 11,988 | 43.85% | 27,344 |
| Jackson | 11,249 | 78.49% | 2,953 | 20.60% | 130 | 0.91% | 8,296 | 57.89% | 14,332 |
| Jefferson | 22,317 | 71.03% | 8,592 | 27.35% | 508 | 1.62% | 13,725 | 43.68% | 31,417 |
| Knox | 23,112 | 71.61% | 8,698 | 26.95% | 467 | 1.44% | 14,414 | 44.66% | 32,277 |
| Lake | 72,924 | 56.46% | 54,484 | 42.18% | 1,751 | 1.36% | 18,440 | 14.28% | 129,159 |
| Lawrence | 20,013 | 74.58% | 6,514 | 24.27% | 309 | 1.15% | 13,499 | 50.31% | 26,836 |
| Licking | 61,359 | 64.20% | 32,832 | 34.35% | 1,390 | 1.45% | 28,527 | 29.85% | 95,581 |
| Logan | 18,182 | 77.33% | 5,027 | 21.38% | 303 | 1.29% | 13,155 | 55.95% | 23,512 |
| Lorain | 83,297 | 52.12% | 74,207 | 46.44% | 2,303 | 1.44% | 9,090 | 5.68% | 159,807 |
| Lucas | 82,398 | 42.81% | 106,320 | 55.23% | 3,771 | 1.96% | −23,922 | −12.42% | 192,489 |
| Madison | 14,737 | 70.98% | 5,713 | 27.52% | 312 | 1.50% | 9,024 | 43.46% | 20,762 |
| Mahoning | 61,249 | 54.09% | 50,636 | 44.72% | 1,340 | 1.19% | 10,613 | 9.37% | 113,225 |
| Marion | 19,219 | 69.96% | 7,902 | 28.77% | 349 | 1.27% | 11,317 | 41.19% | 27,470 |
| Medina | 66,308 | 61.67% | 39,771 | 36.99% | 1,438 | 1.34% | 26,537 | 24.68% | 107,517 |
| Meigs | 8,127 | 77.98% | 2,202 | 21.13% | 93 | 0.89% | 5,925 | 56.85% | 10,422 |
| Mercer | 19,710 | 82.72% | 3,865 | 16.22% | 251 | 1.06% | 15,845 | 66.50% | 23,826 |
| Miami | 42,677 | 71.80% | 15,969 | 26.87% | 792 | 1.33% | 26,708 | 44.93% | 59,438 |
| Monroe | 5,396 | 79.18% | 1,336 | 19.60% | 83 | 1.22% | 4,060 | 59.58% | 6,815 |
| Montgomery | 125,566 | 48.95% | 126,767 | 49.41% | 4,211 | 1.64% | −1,201 | −0.46% | 256,544 |
| Morgan | 5,168 | 75.97% | 1,560 | 22.93% | 75 | 1.10% | 3,608 | 53.04% | 6,803 |
| Morrow | 14,609 | 77.17% | 4,100 | 21.66% | 223 | 1.17% | 10,509 | 55.51% | 18,932 |
| Muskingum | 28,147 | 71.45% | 10,874 | 27.60% | 373 | 0.95% | 17,273 | 43.85% | 39,394 |
| Noble | 5,050 | 81.66% | 1,069 | 17.29% | 65 | 1.05% | 3,981 | 64.37% | 6,184 |
| Ottawa | 14,872 | 61.86% | 8,866 | 36.88% | 304 | 1.26% | 6,006 | 24.98% | 24,042 |
| Paulding | 7,203 | 77.22% | 1,987 | 21.30% | 138 | 1.48% | 5,216 | 55.92% | 9,328 |
| Perry | 13,062 | 76.81% | 3,800 | 22.35% | 143 | 0.84% | 9,262 | 54.46% | 17,005 |
| Pickaway | 21,607 | 73.46% | 7,397 | 25.15% | 409 | 1.39% | 14,210 | 48.31% | 29,413 |
| Pike | 9,352 | 76.39% | 2,793 | 22.81% | 97 | 0.27% | 6,559 | 53.58% | 12,242 |
| Portage | 47,681 | 57.02% | 34,759 | 41.57% | 1,179 | 1.41% | 12,922 | 15.45% | 83,619 |
| Preble | 17,146 | 78.77% | 4,343 | 19.95% | 277 | 1.28% | 12,803 | 58.82% | 21,766 |
| Putnam | 16,576 | 83.55% | 2,996 | 15.10% | 268 | 1.35% | 13,580 | 68.45% | 19,840 |
| Richland | 41,298 | 70.76% | 16,591 | 28.43% | 473 | 0.81% | 24,707 | 42.33% | 58,362 |
| Ross | 22,801 | 68.96% | 9,846 | 29.78% | 418 | 1.26% | 12,955 | 39.18% | 33,065 |
| Sandusky | 19,311 | 64.74% | 10,139 | 33.99% | 377 | 1.27% | 9,172 | 30.75% | 29,827 |
| Scioto | 22,978 | 73.59% | 8,021 | 25.69% | 226 | 0.72% | 14,957 | 47.90% | 31,225 |
| Seneca | 17,241 | 67.87% | 7,765 | 30.57% | 398 | 1.56% | 9,476 | 37.30% | 25,404 |
| Shelby | 20,740 | 81.78% | 4,350 | 17.15% | 272 | 1.07% | 16,390 | 64.63% | 25,362 |
| Stark | 111,478 | 60.52% | 71,090 | 38.60% | 1,625 | 0.88% | 40,388 | 21.92% | 184,193 |
| Summit | 125,910 | 45.88% | 145,005 | 52.83% | 3,539 | 1.29% | −19,095 | −6.95% | 274,454 |
| Trumbull | 55,983 | 57.66% | 39,758 | 40.95% | 1,355 | 1.39% | 16,225 | 16.71% | 97,096 |
| Tuscarawas | 30,652 | 70.94% | 12,032 | 27.84% | 527 | 1.22% | 18,620 | 43.10% | 43,211 |
| Union | 23,982 | 63.84% | 12,934 | 34.43% | 651 | 1.73% | 11,048 | 29.41% | 37,567 |
| Van Wert | 11,616 | 78.45% | 3,000 | 20.26% | 190 | 1.29% | 8,616 | 58.19% | 14,806 |
| Vinton | 4,531 | 78.58% | 1,169 | 20.27% | 66 | 1.15% | 3,362 | 58.31% | 5,766 |
| Warren | 91,132 | 64.74% | 47,128 | 33.48% | 2,499 | 1.78% | 44,004 | 31.26% | 140,759 |
| Washington | 22,161 | 71.20% | 8,600 | 27.63% | 362 | 1.17% | 13,561 | 43.57% | 31,123 |
| Wayne | 36,764 | 69.17% | 15,898 | 29.91% | 488 | 0.92% | 20,866 | 39.26% | 53,150 |
| Williams | 13,461 | 73.50% | 4,644 | 25.36% | 209 | 1.14% | 8,817 | 48.14% | 18,314 |
| Wood | 36,877 | 54.56% | 30,016 | 44.41% | 693 | 1.03% | 6,861 | 10.15% | 67,586 |
| Wyandot | 8,564 | 74.83% | 2,731 | 23.86% | 150 | 1.31% | 5,833 | 50.97% | 11,445 |
| Totals | 3,180,116 | 54.88% | 2,533,699 | 43.72% | 81,301 | 1.40% | 646,417 | 11.16% | 5,795,116 |
By congressional district
editTrump won 11 of 15 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[78]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 46% | 53% | Greg Landsman |
| 2nd | 73% | 26% | Brad Wenstrup (118th Congress) |
| David Taylor (119th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 29% | 70% | Joyce Beatty |
| 4th | 68% | 31% | Jim Jordan |
| 5th | 64% | 35% | Bob Latta |
| 6th | 66% | 33% | Michael Rulli |
| 7th | 55% | 44% | Max Miller |
| 8th | 61% | 38% | Warren Davidson |
| 9th | 53% | 46% | Marcy Kaptur |
| 10th | 52% | 47% | Mike Turner |
| 11th | 22% | 77% | Shontel Brown |
| 12th | 66% | 33% | Troy Balderson |
| 13th | 49.5% | 49.6% | Emilia Sykes |
| 14th | 59% | 41% | David Joyce |
| 15th | 54% | 45% | Mike Carey |
Analysis
editA heavily populated Midwestern state located mainly in the Rust Belt, with the southern portion of the state having cultural influence from the Upper South and Bible Belt, Ohio had been considered a vital bellwether state for decades and had been decided by single digits at the presidential level since 1992, but has been trending towards the political right in recent years and is now considered a moderately red state. The state voted significantly more Republican than the U.S. at large when Donald Trump carried the state by just over eight points in the past two elections, despite polls showing a tight race in both cycles, especially in 2020, in which the state backed the losing presidential candidate for the first time in 60 years. This is the first time since 1988 that the state voted Republican in three consecutive presidential elections and the first time since 2012 that it voted for the winner of the national popular vote.
The GOP's success in Ohio during the 2022 midterms has further testified to the state's rightward shift and the end of its swing-state status at the presidential level. Ohio was widely expected to be carried again by Trump in the November general election.[79] JD Vance's selection was seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest (especially his home state) and among Trump supporters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.[80]
The election was held concurrently with a U.S. Senate race in Ohio, in which Republican nominee Bernie Moreno unseated Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, flipping the state's last remaining Democratic statewide seat into the GOP camp; this was partly credited to Trump's overall success in the state. Additionally, an attempt to establish a redistricting commission (with the goal of ending gerrymandering) was proposed on the state's ballot but was defeated after being denounced by Trump.[81][82] This was also, in part, credited towards Trump's popularity in the state amongst other factors.[83]
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b "Other" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" & "Would not vote" with 1% each
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b "Another party's candidates" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 5%
- ^ Joe Manchin with 6%
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 8%
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
- ^ Poll sponsored by Ohio Press Network
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
References
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