The 2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Dakota. Incumbent Republican governor Doug Burgum decided to not seek re-election to a third term. He would ultimately decide to run for president. The Democratic-NPL has not won a governor's race in North Dakota since 1988.
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 County results Armstrong: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Piepkorn: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Republican nominee, congressman Kelly Armstrong, was elected to his first term, defeating Democratic–NPL nominee, state senator Merrill Piepkorn. Armstrong is expected to be sworn in to office in December 2024. He will succeed Burgum.
Background
editIn November 2022, voters in the state approved a constitutional amendment limiting governors to two four-year terms, but it only applies to individuals elected after January 1, 2023, so incumbent governor Doug Burgum was still eligible to run for re-election under a grandfather clause.[1] On June 7, 2023, Burgum announced that he would instead run for the Republican nomination for president of the United States in 2024, a race he dropped out of on December 4, 2023. Despite considering running for a third term after the end of his presidential campaign, Burgum announced he would not run for a third term on January 22, 2024.[2]
Before Burgum's announcement, former state Senator and former congressional candidate Tom Campbell suggested at and considered a gubernatorial run, despite whatever choice Burgum made.[3][4] After the decision from Burgum to not seek re-election, Campbell entered the race.[5]
On January 23, the day after Burgum's announcement, U.S. Representative Kelly Armstrong announced he would also seek the governorship, receiving far more reporting than Campbell and an endorsement from Secretary of State Michael Howe.[6][7][8][9] Following Armstrong's announcement, Campbell withdrew and switched his campaign towards the House seat left open by Armstrong.[10]
On January 31, Travis Hipsher, a security guard from Neche, announced he would seek the governorship for the Democratic-NPL.[11] Hipsher described himself as a centrist.[12]
Later on February 6, perennial candidate Michael Coachman announced an independent run for governor.[13] Coachman previously ran for governor in 2020, Lieutenant Governor in 2016 and 2012, and with Secretary of State in 2018.[14]
On February 15, Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller announced her candidacy to replace Burgum.[15]
Later on March 22, it was reported that state senator Merrill Piepkorn had filed the paperwork to run, but did not announce any campaign.[16] On March 31, Travis Hipsher ended his campaign, making way for Piepkorn’s announcement on April 2.[17][18]
Republican primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Kelly Armstrong, U.S. Representative from North Dakota's at-large congressional district (2019–present)[19]
- Running Mate: Michelle Strinden, state representative for the 41st district (2019–present)[20]
Eliminated in primary
edit- Tammy Miller, Lieutenant Governor of North Dakota (2023–present)[21]
- Running Mate: Josh Teigen, commissioner of the North Dakota Department of Commerce (2022–present)[22]
Withdrawn
edit- Tom Campbell, former state senator from the 19th district (2012–2018) and candidate for North Dakota's at-large congressional district in 2018[5] (ran for U.S. House)[23]
Declined
edit- Kirsten Baesler, North Dakota Superintendent of Public Instruction (2013–present) (ran for re-election)[24]
- Thomas Beadle, North Dakota State Treasurer (2021–present) (ran for re-election)[24]
- Doug Burgum, incumbent governor[2] (endorsed Miller)[25]
- Kevin Cramer, U.S. Senator (2018–present) (endorsed Armstrong, ran for re-election)[26][27]
- Julie Fedorchak, member of the North Dakota Public Service Commission (2012–present)[28] (ran for U.S. House)[29]
- Michael Howe, North Dakota Secretary of State (2023–present) (endorsed Armstrong)[24]
- Drew Wrigley, North Dakota Attorney General (2022–present)[30]
Endorsements
edit- Federal officials
- Donald Trump, former President of the United States (2017–2021)[31]
- U.S. Senators
- Kevin Cramer, U.S. Senator for North Dakota (2019–present)[26]
- John Hoeven, U.S. Senator for North Dakota (2011–present) and former governor (2000–2010)[32]
- Statewide officials
- Michael Howe, North Dakota Secretary of State (2023–present)[24]
- Organizations
- Statewide officials
- Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (2016–present)[25]
Debates
editPrairie Public Broadcasting hosted a debate between Armstrong and Miller on April 23.[34] On May 2, it was announced that the Fargo-Moorhead-West Fargo Chamber of Commerce would hold a live, in person debate on May 30.[35] A third debate was held on June 7.[36]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Kelly Armstrong | Tammy Miller | |||||
| 1 | April 23, 2024 | Prairie Public Broadcasting | Dave Thompson | YouTube | P | P |
| 2 | May 30, 2024 | FMWF Chamber of Commerce | P | P | ||
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kelly Armstrong |
Tammy Miller |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence[A] | May 20–22, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 19% | 24% |
| DFM Research (D)[B] | May 6–8, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 18% | 26% |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy[C] | May 4−8, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 60% | 19% | 19% |
Results
edit
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50-60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kelly Armstrong Michelle Strinden |
67,704 | 73.2% | |
| Republican | Tammy Miller Josh Teigen |
24,784 | 26.8% | |
| Total votes | 92,488 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic-NPL Primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Merrill Piepkorn, state senator for the 44th district (2017–present)[38]
- Running mate: Patrick Hart, treasurer of the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party and nominee for state auditor in 2020[20]
Withdrawn
edit- Travis Hipsher, security guard[39]
Endorsements
edit- Organizations
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic–NPL | Merrill Piepkorn Patrick Hart |
19,609 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 19,609 | 100.0% | ||
Independent
editCandidates
editDeclared
editGeneral election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[43] | Solid R | June 13, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[44] | Solid R | July 14, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Safe R | June 4, 2024 |
| RCP[46] | Solid R | July 13, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[47] | Safe R | July 12, 2023 |
| CNalysis[48] | Solid R | August 17, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
edit- Statewide officials
- Tammy Miller, North Dakota Lieutenant Governor (2023–present)[49]
Debates
edit| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic-NPL | Republican | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||
| Merrill Piepkorn | Kelly Armstrong | Michael Coachman | |||||
| 1 | September 6, 2024 | Forum Communications | Rob Port | Youtube | P | P | N |
| 2 | October 8, 2024 | KFGO News | Paul Jurgens, Amy Dalrymple, and Jim Shaw |
Omny | P | P | N |
| 3 | October 10, 2024 | Prairie Public Broadcasting | Dave Thompson | C-SPAN | P | P | P |
| 4 | October 14, 2024 | BEK TV | C-SPAN | P | P | P | |
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kelly Armstrong (R) |
Merrill Piepkorn (D) |
Michael Coachman (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence[A] | September 28-30, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 24% | 3% | 19% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[D] | June 15–19, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 61% | 22% | 11% | 6% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kelly Armstrong Michelle Strinden |
247,056 | 68.26% | +2.42% | |
| Democratic–NPL | Merrill Piepkorn Patrick Hart |
94,043 | 25.98% | +0.60% | |
| Independent | Michael Coachman Lydia Gessele |
20,322 | 5.61% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 530 | 0.15% | -4.75% | ||
| Total votes | 361,951 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Notes
edit- Partisan clients
References
edit- ^ MacPherson, James (November 8, 2022). "North Dakota voters OK term limits for governor, legislators". Associated Press News. Retrieved November 20, 2022.
- ^ a b Dura, Jack (January 22, 2024). "His presidential bid over, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum says he won't seek a third term as governor". The Associated Press. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
- ^ Thaden, Geoff (January 4, 2024). "Tom Campbell Poised to Enter Governor's Race Regardless of Doug Burgum's Decision on Reelection". WDAY (AM). Retrieved January 26, 2024.
- ^ Port, Rob (December 15, 2023). "Port: Former state Sen. Tom Campbell sounds like he's ready to be governor". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Archived from the original on December 15, 2023. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
- ^ a b Larson, Chris (January 21, 2024). "Former State Senator Tom Campbell to run for Governor". WDAY. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
- ^ "Kelly Armstrong, North Dakota's lone congressman, runs for governor". January 23, 2024.
- ^ "Armstrong announces run for ND governor". January 23, 2024.
- ^ Nazzaro, Miranda (January 23, 2024). "North Dakota lawmaker running for governor". The Hill.
- ^ "North Dakota governor candidates emerge as Burgum bows out". January 22, 2024.
- ^ "Tom Campbell announces bid for North Dakota's US House seat". January 26, 2024.
- ^ "Democrat Travis Hipsher discusses run for ND governor". February 2024.
- ^ "ND dem NPL Gubernatorial candidate Hipsher: This is "opportunity to push my ideas"". February 2, 2024.
- ^ "Independent candidate Michael Coachman discusses bid for ND governor". KFYR-TV. February 11, 2024.
- ^ "Former candidate who tried to recall Gov. Burgum runs again for North Dakota governor". Associated Press. February 6, 2024.
- ^ "Lt. Governor Tammy Miller announces run for ND governor". KFYR-TV. February 15, 2024.
- ^ Skurzewski, Joe (March 23, 2024). "Fargo Democrat Piepkorn files paperwork for gubernatorial bid; does not officially confirm campaign". Retrieved April 9, 2024.
- ^ Gick, Justin (March 31, 2024). "Democrat Travis Hipsher withdraws from the North Dakota gubernatorial race". KFYR-TV. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
- ^ Gick, Justin (April 2, 2024). "Democrat Merrill Piepkorn enters North Dakota's governor's race". KFYR-TV. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
- ^ "Armstrong announces run for ND Governor". KFYR-TV. January 23, 2024. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
- ^ a b Janke, Ryan. "N.D. Republican, Democratic parties endorse candidates for governor". KFGO. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
- ^ Monk, Jim (February 15, 2024). "Lt. Governor Tammy Miller joins race for North Dakota governor". KVRR.
- ^ Jurgens, Paul. "Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller choses [sic] Josh Teigen as running mate". KFGO. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
- ^ Carvell, Tasha (January 26, 2023). "Tom Campbell says he'll seek N.D. GOP nomination for U.S. House". KFGO. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
- ^ a b c d Port, Rob (January 22, 2024). "Which North Dakota Republicans are running for governor and U.S. House?". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
- ^ a b Gick, Justin (February 21, 2024). "Burgum endorses Tammy Miller for ND governor". KFYR-TV. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ^ a b Gick, Justin (April 3, 2024). "Cramer endorses Armstrong for governor". KFYR-TV. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
- ^ Adragna, Anthony (January 23, 2024). "Kevin Cramer won't run for North Dakota governor". Politico. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
- ^ Larson, Chris (January 29, 2024). "Fedorchak will not run for Governor in 2024". WDAY. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
- ^ Fulton, Jacob (February 15, 2024). "North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak to run for US House". The Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
- ^ Springer, Patrick (January 22, 2024). "Doug Burgum will not seek 3rd term; Lt. Gov. Miller expresses interest as AG Wrigley declines". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead.
- ^ Port, Rob (May 30, 2024). "Port: Trump endorses Armstrong, Fedorchak in North Dakota's Republican primaries". Jamestown Sun. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
- ^ Gick, Justin (April 2, 2024). "Hoeven endorses Armstrong for governor". KFYR-TV. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
- ^ "Kelly Armstrong, Michelle Strinden endorsed for Gov., Lt. Gov". April 6, 2024.
- ^ "North Dakota Republican candidates headed into first debate for governor's race". InForum. April 22, 2024. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
- ^ "FMWF Chamber announces live Gubernatorial debate between Kelly Armstrong and Tammy Miller". WDAY Radio. May 3, 2024. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
- ^ Downs, Michael (June 7, 2024). "North Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary Debate | 6-7-24". WDAY. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "2024 North Dakota Election Results". Associated Press News.
- ^ Hjelmstad, Gretchen (April 2, 2024). "Merrill Piepkorn launches campaign for Governor of North Dakota". KVLY-TV. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
- ^ Gick, Justin (March 31, 2024). "Democrat Travis Hipsher withdraws from the North Dakota gubernatorial race". KFYR-TV. Retrieved March 31, 2024.
- ^ "North Dakota Democrats endorse Merrill Piepkorn, Patrick Hart as Governor, Lieutenant Governor candidates".
- ^ "Former candidate who tried to recall Gov. Burgum runs again for North Dakota governor". KFYR-TV. February 7, 2024.
- ^ "Trump rally scheduled June 15 at North Dakota Capitol, but former president not expected". May 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
- ^ "Tammy Miller congratulates Kelly Armstrong on winning GOP Governor nomination". KX NEWS. June 12, 2024. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ https://results.sos.nd.gov/ResultsSW.aspx?text=All&type=SW&map=CTY
External links
edit- Official campaign websites