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2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, incumbent President Donald J. Trump from Florida, and running mate Vice President Michael R. Pence from Indiana against Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout62.65%[1] Increase
 
Nominee Donald J. Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic–NPL
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Michael R. Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 235,595 114,902
Percentage 65.11% 31.76%
President before election

Donald J. Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic-NPL

Trump easily won North Dakota 65.1% to 31.8%, a margin of 33.35%, about three points down from his 36-point victory in 2016. Joe Biden won the same two counties Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won in 1984, 2000 and 2016 respectively: the majority-Native American counties of Rolette and Sioux, both of which have long been Democratic strongholds. However, Biden only came 2.7 points short of winning Cass County, which holds the state's largest city of Fargo, as compared to Clinton's 10.5-point loss in 2016.

Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Sargent County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 and the first without Benson, Ransom, or Steele Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Despite Biden's modest improvement over Hillary Clinton four years earlier, this remains the second-worst Democratic performance in the state since 1980. Trump's vote share was also the largest for any candidate in the state since 1952.

Caucuses

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Democratic caucuses

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Further information: 2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses

The North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party held a firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses § NDresults.[edit]

All of the withdrawn candidates had withdrawn from the race while mail-in voting had already begun.

2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses[4]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Bernie Sanders 7,682 52.81 8
Joe Biden 5,742 39.47 6
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 366 2.52
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 223 1.53
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 164 1.13
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 113 0.78
Tulsi Gabbard 89 0.61
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 20 0.14
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 6 0.04
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 3 0.02
John Delaney (withdrawn) 3 0.02
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 2 0.01
Unsigned votes / Overvotes / Blank Votes [a]133 0.91
Total 14,546 100% 14

Republican caucuses

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The North Dakota Republican Party held a non-binding firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020, with incumbent President Donald Trump running unopposed.[5][6]

The party then formally selected their 29 Republican National Convention delegates, unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention. The state party convention was originally scheduled for March 27–29, but due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic it was ultimately cancelled.[7][8]

Libertarian nominee

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  • Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

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Final predictions

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Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[9] Solid R
Inside Elections[10] Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe R
Politico[12] Solid R
RCP[13] Solid R
Niskanen[14] Safe R
CNN[15] Solid R
The Economist[16] Safe R
CBS News[17] Likely R
270towin[18] Safe R
ABC News[19] Solid R
NPR[20] Likely R
NBC News[21] Solid R
538[22] Solid R

Polling

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Graphical summary

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Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic-NPL 		Donald J.
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270 to Win[23] September 26 – October 17, 2020 October 19, 2020 38.0% 57.5% 4.5% Trump +19.5
FiveThirtyEight[24] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 38.7% 56.0% 5.3% Trump +17.3
Average 38.4% 56.8% 4.8% Trump +18.4

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic-NPL 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 402 (LV) ± 7% 59%[d] 39% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] Oct 1–28, 2020 700 (LV) – 57% 42% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] Sep 1–30, 2020 249 (LV) – 63% 34% – – 3%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First[26] Sep 26–29, 2020 460 (A) ± 4.6% 51% 37% – 4%[e] 7%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First[27] Sep 12–16, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 56% 37% – 3%[f] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] Aug 1–31, 2020 269 (LV) – 66% 32% – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] Jul 1–31, 2020 261 (LV) – 63% 36% – – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] Jun 8–30, 2020 88 (LV) – 71% 28% – – 1%
DFM Research[28] Mar 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 38% – 2% 5%
DFM Research[29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 34% – 2% 5%
1892 Polling/Doug Burgum[30][A] Jul 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 60% 34% – – –
DFM Research[31] May 14–18, 2019 400 (A) ± 4.9% 54% 39% – 2% 5%
Former candidates

with Donald J. Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D-NPL) 		Other Undecided
DFM Research[29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 32% 1% 7%

with Donald J. Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D-NPL) 		Other Undecided
DFM Research[29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 31% 2% 8%

with Donald J. Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D-NPL) 		Other Undecided
DFM Research[29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 33% 1% 7%

with Donald J. Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D-NPL) 		Other Undecided
DFM Research[28] Mar 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 33% 4% 4%
DFM Research[29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 61% 32% 1% 5%

with Donald J. Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D-NPL) 		Other Undecided
DFM Research[29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 62% 31% 2% 6%
Zogby Analytics[32] Aug 17–23, 2017 403 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 36% – 17%

Electoral slates

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These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[33]

Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party 		Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic-NPL Party 		Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Sandy J. Boehler
Ray Holmberg
Robert Wefald 		Heidi Heitkamp
Bernice Knutson
Warren Larson 		Dustin Gawrylow
Martin J. Riske
Dylan Stuckey

Results

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2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald J. Trump
Michael R. Pence 		235,595 65.11% +2.16%
Democratic–NPL Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		114,902 31.78% +4.53%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		9,393 2.60% −3.63%
Write-in 1,929 0.53% −1.32%
Total votes 361,819 100.00%
Republican hold

By county

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County Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic-NPL 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 981 77.30% 258 20.33% 30 2.37% 723 56.97% 1,269
Barnes 3,568 64.12% 1,820 32.70% 177 3.18% 1,748 31.42% 5,565
Benson 1,094 55.79% 822 41.92% 45 2.29% 272 13.87% 1,961
Billings 541 85.20% 72 11.34% 22 3.46% 469 73.86% 635
Bottineau 2,575 74.19% 821 23.65% 75 2.16% 1,754 50.54% 3,471
Bowman 1,395 84.19% 228 13.76% 34 2.05% 1,167 70.43% 1,657
Burke 994 86.06% 137 11.86% 24 2.08% 857 74.20% 1,155
Burleigh 34,744 68.46% 14,348 28.27% 1,661 3.27% 20,396 40.19% 50,753
Cass 42,619 49.53% 40,311 46.84% 3,123 3.63% 2,308 2.69% 86,053
Cavalier 1,499 74.21% 474 23.47% 47 2.32% 1,025 50.74% 2,020
Dickey 1,742 71.86% 608 25.08% 74 3.06% 1,134 46.78% 2,424
Divide 904 75.21% 265 22.05% 33 2.74% 639 53.16% 1,202
Dunn 1,951 83.45% 342 14.63% 45 1.92% 1,609 68.82% 2,338
Eddy 854 67.72% 383 30.37% 24 1.91% 471 37.35% 1,261
Emmons 1,738 86.51% 237 11.80% 34 1.69% 1,501 74.71% 2,009
Foster 1,362 76.60% 373 20.98% 43 2.42% 989 55.62% 1,778
Golden Valley 871 84.89% 137 13.35% 18 1.76% 634 71.54% 1,026
Grand Forks 16,987 54.85% 12,880 41.59% 1,103 3.56% 4,107 13.26% 30,970
Grant 1,145 82.91% 207 14.99% 29 2.10% 938 67.92% 1,381
Griggs 907 72.56% 308 24.64% 35 2.80% 599 47.92% 1,250
Hettinger 1,091 83.16% 196 14.94% 25 1.90% 895 68.22% 1,312
Kidder 1,215 83.22% 221 15.14% 24 1.64% 994 68.08% 1,460
LaMoure 1,645 74.13% 527 23.75% 47 2.12% 1,118 50.38% 2,219
Logan 930 86.43% 128 11.90% 18 1.67% 802 74.53% 1,076
McHenry 2,364 78.72% 564 18.78% 75 2.50% 1,800 59.94% 3,003
McIntosh 1,153 79.24% 261 17.94% 41 2.82% 892 61.30% 1,455
McKenzie 4,482 82.71% 814 15.02% 123 2.27% 3,668 67.69% 5,419
McLean 4,198 75.83% 1,230 22.22% 108 1.95% 2,968 53.61% 5,536
Mercer 3,856 82.48% 704 15.06% 115 2.46% 3,152 67.42% 4,675
Morton 12,243 73.67% 3,872 23.30% 504 3.03% 8,371 50.37% 16,619
Mountrail 2,824 67.80% 1,256 30.16% 85 2.04% 1,568 37.64% 4,165
Nelson 1,141 64.21% 586 32.98% 50 2.81% 555 31.23% 1,777
Oliver 918 86.12% 129 12.10% 19 1.78% 789 74.02% 1,066
Pembina 2,460 73.85% 786 23.60% 85 2.55% 1,674 50.25% 3,331
Pierce 1,585 74.48% 497 23.36% 46 2.16% 1,088 51.12% 2,128
Ramsey 3,577 66.59% 1,639 30.51% 156 2.90% 1,938 36.08% 5,372
Ransom 1,418 57.78% 945 38.51% 91 3.71% 473 19.27% 2,454
Renville 1,065 80.74% 220 16.68% 34 2.58% 845 64.06% 1,319
Richland 5,072 64.93% 2,510 32.13% 230 2.94% 2,562 32.80% 7,812
Rolette 1,257 33.04% 2,482 65.25% 65 1.71% -1,225 -32.21% 3,804
Sargent 1,266 61.16% 738 35.65% 66 3.19% 528 25.51% 2,070
Sheridan 688 84.73% 104 12.81% 20 2.46% 584 71.92% 812
Sioux 258 21.75% 804 67.79% 124 10.46% -546 -46.04% 1,186
Slope 380 88.99% 44 10.30% 3 0.71% 336 78.69% 427
Stark 12,110 80.47% 2,499 16.60% 441 2.93% 9,611 63.87% 15,050
Steele 652 59.93% 392 36.03% 44 4.04% 260 23.90% 1,088
Stutsman 6,994 70.23% 2,676 26.87% 289 2.90% 4,318 43.36% 9,959
Towner 830 70.70% 317 27.00% 27 2.30% 513 43.70% 1,174
Traill 2,522 60.98% 1,493 36.10% 121 2.92% 1,029 24.88% 4,136
Walsh 3,324 69.50% 1,333 27.87% 126 2.63% 1,991 41.63% 4,783
Ward 19,974 70.71% 7,293 25.82% 979 3.47% 12,681 44.89% 28,246
Wells 1,893 79.74% 442 18.62% 39 1.64% 1,451 61.12% 2,374
Williams 11,739 81.90% 2,169 15.13% 426 2.97% 9,570 66.77% 14,334
Totals 235,595 65.11% 114,902 31.76% 11,322 3.13% 120,693 33.35% 361,819


 
 

By congressional district

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Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is an at-large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Trump Biden Representative
At-large 65.11% 31.76% Kelly Armstrong

Analysis

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North Dakota, a rural state covered in the Midwestern Plains, is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. It last voted for a Democrat in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. Since 1964, North Dakota has been competitive in only three elections: 1976, 1996, and 2008.

A few prime reasons why this state votes heavily for Republicans include its older, majority-White populace; agribusiness; and the state's recent oil boom. In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as the oil boom increasingly fuels the economy of North Dakota.[34] The main oil boom has taken place in the western counties—perhaps Trump's main base. Trump signed executive orders on his first month in office, reviving the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines rejected by the Obama administration.[35]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Unsigned 87, over 7, blank 39 votes
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Other candidate" with 4%
  6. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Burgum's campaign

References

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  1. ^ a b "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "2020 Democratic Caucus Results". North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party. Archived from the original on October 30, 2020. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
  5. ^ "6 states will vote in Tuesday's GOP presidential primary. Trump will win all 6". Vox. March 10, 2020.
  6. ^ "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 4, 2020.
  7. ^ "North Dakota GOP cancels state convention because of coronavirus threat". KFGO. March 18, 2020.
  8. ^ "2020 State Convention – North Dakota Republican Party". Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved March 18, 2020.
  9. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  10. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  11. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  13. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  14. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  15. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  16. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  17. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  19. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  21. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  23. ^ 270 to Win
  24. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  25. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  26. ^ "DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on October 6, 2020. Retrieved October 5, 2020.
  27. ^ DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First
  28. ^ a b DFM Research
  29. ^ a b c d e f DFM Research
  30. ^ 1892 Polling/Doug Burgum
  31. ^ DFM Research
  32. ^ Zogby Analytics
  33. ^ "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  34. ^ Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  35. ^ Volcovici, Valerie (December 6, 2016). "Trump supports completion of Dakota Access Pipeline". Reuters. Retrieved November 13, 2020.

Further reading

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