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2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

The 2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout61.86% Decrease[1] 4.48 pp
 
Nominee Mitt Romney Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Massachusetts Illinois
Running mate Paul Ryan Joe Biden
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,462,330 960,709
Percentage 59.42% 39.04%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Romney easily carried Tennessee's 11 electoral votes, winning 59.42% of the vote in the state to Obama's 39.04%.[2] Tennessee has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996, when Bill Clinton won the state and many other states of the South, and Tennessee has not given a majority to a Democratic nominee since fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter carried it in 1976. Thus, Tennessee has been seen as part of the modern-day red wall in the 21st century. After 1996, the state had been growing more Republican with almost each election.[3]

Winning Tennessee by 501,621 votes, Mitt Romney achieved his second-largest margin of victory by vote count nationwide, surpassed only by the 1,261,719-vote margin in Texas. Romney gained ground in every county, significantly outperforming prior Presidential GOP candidates in rural areas, particularly in Middle Tennessee. Notably, Romney also flipped two counties, Houston and Jackson, to the Republican column. Both of these majority-white counties had been Democratic strongholds with their strong ties to secessionism: they had each only voted for a Republican presidential nominee once prior to this election, in 1928 and 1920, respectively.[4] Thus, Obama became the first Democrat to be elected without either county. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time in which Hardeman County was won by the Democratic presidential nominee. This is also the first and only time that a Democratic president has won re-election without ever carrying Tennessee.

As consistent with the rest of the country, Obama carried heavily populated and diverse counties. The largest county, Shelby, was won by Obama by a 26.05% margin due to it being home to Memphis, Tennessee's largest city. In addition, the home of the state capital of Nashville, Davidson County, went to Obama by 18.53%. Hardeman and Haywood counties, both low-populated suburbs of Memphis, also went to Obama due to their high African American populations (42.2%[5] and 50.6%,[6] respectively). However, rural areas – including areas in the northwestern portion of the state that had long favored Democratic candidates – saw heavy margins for Romney, allowing him to offset Obama's wins in large cities. The eastern region of the state in Appalachia, some of the most historically Republican and Unionist counties in the country, saw margins of over 70% for the Republican ticket.[7]

Background

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A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2012 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary
Tennessee Democratic primary, 2012
 
← 2008 March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06) 2016 →
     
Candidate Barack Obama Uncommitted
Home state Illinois N/A
Delegate count 82 0
Popular vote 80,357 10,497
Percentage 88.48% 11.51%
 
Primary results by county
Obama:      60–65%      65–70%      70–75%      75–80%      80–85%      85–90%      90–95%      95–100%

The 2012 democratic primary in Tennessee took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012, with Barack Obama receiving 80,355 (88.5%) votes. Other candidates received a combined total of 10,411 (11.5%) votes.[8] Tennessee had a total of 91 delegates to the 2012 Democratic National Convention, of which 82 were pledged to presidential contenders depending on the popular vote. The remaining 9 super-delegates were unbound.

Tennessee Democratic primary, 2012[9]
Candidate Popular vote Delegates
Count Percentage Pledged delegates Super delegates Total delegates
  Barack Obama (incumbent) 80,705 88.48% 82 9 91
Uncommitted 10,497 11.51% 0 0 0
John Wolfe Jr. (write-in) 7 0.00% 0 0 0
Total: 91,209 100% 82 9 91

Republican primary

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Main article: 2012 Tennessee Republican presidential primary
Tennessee Republican primary, 2012
 
← 2008 March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06) 2016 →
     
Candidate Rick Santorum Mitt Romney
Home state Pennsylvania Massachusetts
Delegate count 29 14
Popular vote 205,809 155,630
Percentage 37.11% 28.06%
     
Candidate Newt Gingrich Ron Paul
Home state Georgia Texas
Delegate count 9 0
Popular vote 132,889 50,156
Percentage 23.96% 9.04%
 
 
     Santorum
     Romney
     Gingrich

The Republican primary took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012.[10][11]

Tennessee has 58 delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention. Three superdelegates are unbound. 27 delegates are awarded by congressional district, 3 delegates for each district. If a candidate wins two-thirds of the vote in a district, he takes all 3 delegates there; if not, delegates are split 2-to-1 between the top two candidates. Another 28 delegates are awarded to the candidate who wins two-thirds of the vote statewide, or allocated proportionately among candidates winning at least 20% of the vote if no one gets two-thirds.[12]

Former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum won the primary with a plurality, carrying 37.11% of the vote and all but four counties, awarding him 29 delegates. Former Massachusetts Governor and eventual nominee, Mitt Romney, came second with 28.06% of the vote and 19 delegates. He carried only three counties: Davidson, Loudon, and Williamson. Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich of neighboring Georgia, came third with 23.96% of the vote and 9 delegates, carrying only the county of Marion. Representative from Texas Ron Paul received 9.04% of the vote and all other candidates received under 1% of the vote.[13]

Results

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Tennessee Republican primary, 2012[14]
Candidate Votes Percentage Projected delegate count
NYT
[15] 		CNN
[16] 		FOX
[17]
  Rick Santorum 205,809 37.11% 29 27 26
Mitt Romney 155,630 28.06% 14 15 12
Newt Gingrich 132,889 23.96% 9 8 9
Ron Paul 50,156 9.04% 0 0 0
Rick Perry (withdrawn) 1,966 0.35% 0 0 0
Michele Bachmann (withdrawn) 1,895 0.34% 0 0 0
Jon Huntsman (withdrawn) 1,239 0.22% 0 0 0
Buddy Roemer (withdrawn) 881 0.16% 0 0 0
Gary Johnson (withdrawn) 572 0.10% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 3,536 0.64% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 6 8 9
Total: 554,573 100.00% 58 58 58

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[18] Safe R November 6, 2012
CNN[19] Safe R November 6, 2012
New York Times[20] Safe R November 6, 2012
Washington Post[21] Safe R November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[22] Solid R November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Solid R November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[24] Solid R November 6, 2012

Results

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United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2012
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 1,462,330 59.42% 11
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 960,709 39.04% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 18,623 0.67% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 6,515 0.26% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 6,022 0.24% 0
Justice Rocky Anderson Luis J. Rodriguez 2,639 0.11% 0
American Third Position Merlin Miller Virginia D. Abernethy 1,739 0.07% 0
Totals 2,458,577 100.00% 11

By county

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County Mitt Romney
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Anderson 18,968 63.95% 10,122 34.13% 569 1.92% 8,846 29.82% 29,659
Bedford 10,034 69.46% 4,211 29.15% 200 1.39% 5,823 40.31% 14,445
Benton 3,850 61.84% 2,258 36.27% 118 1.89% 1,592 25.57% 6,226
Bledsoe 3,022 69.33% 1,267 29.07% 70 1.60% 1,755 40.26% 4,359
Blount 35,441 71.98% 12,934 26.27% 859 1.75% 22,507 45.71% 49,234
Bradley 27,422 75.97% 8,037 22.27% 637 1.76% 19,385 53.70% 36,096
Campbell 8,604 71.10% 3,328 27.50% 169 1.40% 5,276 43.60% 12,101
Cannon 3,309 66.54% 1,564 31.45% 100 2.01% 1,745 35.09% 4,973
Carroll 7,225 66.58% 3,475 32.02% 151 1.40% 3,750 34.56% 10,851
Carter 15,503 75.20% 4,789 23.23% 325 1.57% 10,714 51.97% 20,617
Cheatham 10,268 67.63% 4,659 30.69% 255 1.68% 5,609 36.94% 15,182
Chester 4,684 73.07% 1,624 25.34% 102 1.59% 3,060 47.73% 6,410
Claiborne 7,617 74.84% 2,433 23.90% 128 1.26% 5,184 50.94% 10,178
Clay 1,747 61.95% 1,037 36.77% 36 1.28% 710 25.18% 2,820
Cocke 8,459 73.85% 2,804 24.48% 191 1.67% 5,655 49.37% 11,454
Coffee 13,023 67.62% 5,870 30.48% 366 1.90% 7,153 37.14% 19,259
Crockett 3,783 68.81% 1,669 30.36% 46 0.83% 2,114 38.45% 5,498
Cumberland 18,653 73.73% 6,261 24.75% 384 1.52% 12,392 48.98% 25,298
Davidson 97,622 39.76% 143,120 58.29% 4,792 1.95% -45,498 -18.53% 245,534
Decatur 2,874 67.61% 1,303 30.65% 74 1.74% 1,571 36.96% 4,251
DeKalb 4,143 64.40% 2,174 33.79% 116 1.81% 1,969 30.61% 6,433
Dickson 11,296 63.34% 6,233 34.95% 306 1.71% 5,063 28.39% 17,835
Dyer 9,921 71.81% 3,757 27.19% 138 1.00% 6,164 44.62% 13,816
Fayette 12,689 64.83% 6,688 34.17% 197 1.00% 6,001 30.66% 19,574
Fentress 5,243 76.04% 1,561 22.64% 91 1.32% 3,682 53.40% 6,895
Franklin 10,262 63.66% 5,603 34.76% 254 1.58% 4,659 28.90% 16,119
Gibson 12,883 65.51% 6,564 33.38% 220 1.11% 6,319 32.13% 19,667
Giles 6,915 64.03% 3,760 34.82% 124 1.15% 3,155 29.21% 10,799
Grainger 5,470 75.43% 1,668 23.00% 114 1.57% 3,802 52.43% 7,252
Greene 17,245 72.19% 6,225 26.06% 417 1.75% 11,020 46.13% 23,887
Grundy 2,516 59.38% 1,643 38.78% 78 1.84% 873 20.60% 4,237
Hamblen 14,522 72.49% 5,234 26.13% 276 1.38% 9,288 46.36% 20,032
Hamilton 79,933 56.39% 58,836 41.51% 2,972 2.10% 21,097 14.88% 141,741
Hancock 1,527 74.63% 475 23.22% 44 2.15% 1,052 51.41% 2,046
Hardeman 4,865 46.60% 5,482 52.51% 92 0.89% -617 -5.91% 10,439
Hardin 7,886 75.14% 2,467 23.51% 142 1.35% 5,419 51.63% 10,495
Hawkins 14,382 72.50% 5,088 25.65% 367 1.85% 9,294 46.85% 19,837
Haywood 2,960 39.11% 4,569 60.36% 40 0.53% -1,609 -21.25% 7,569
Henderson 7,421 73.80% 2,517 25.03% 117 1.17% 4,904 48.77% 10,055
Henry 8,193 64.31% 4,339 34.06% 207 1.63% 3,854 30.25% 12,739
Hickman 4,758 62.59% 2,698 35.49% 146 1.92% 2,060 27.10% 7,602
Houston 1,579 52.16% 1,400 46.25% 48 1.59% 179 5.91% 3,027
Humphreys 3,833 55.85% 2,905 42.33% 125 1.82% 928 13.52% 6,863
Jackson 2,383 56.96% 1,739 41.56% 62 1.48% 644 15.40% 4,184
Jefferson 13,038 74.25% 4,232 24.10% 289 1.65% 8,806 50.15% 17,559
Johnson 4,611 74.44% 1,483 23.94% 100 1.62% 3,128 50.50% 6,194
Knox 109,707 63.60% 59,399 34.43% 3,401 1.97% 50,308 29.17% 172,507
Lake 1,163 55.73% 884 42.36% 40 1.91% 279 13.37% 2,087
Lauderdale 4,616 53.12% 4,011 46.16% 62 0.72% 605 6.96% 8,689
Lawrence 10,770 70.77% 4,237 27.84% 212 1.39% 6,533 42.93% 15,219
Lewis 3,117 66.40% 1,447 30.83% 130 2.77% 1,670 35.57% 4,694
Lincoln 9,803 73.88% 3,290 24.80% 175 1.32% 6,513 49.08% 13,268
Loudon 16,707 75.69% 5,058 22.91% 308 1.40% 11,649 52.78% 22,073
Macon 5,260 76.18% 1,552 22.48% 93 1.34% 3,708 53.70% 6,905
Madison 21,993 54.03% 18,367 45.13% 342 0.84% 3,626 8.90% 40,702
Marion 6,272 60.26% 3,953 37.98% 184 1.76% 2,319 22.28% 10,409
Marshall 6,832 63.61% 3,725 34.68% 184 1.71% 3,107 28.93% 10,741
Maury 20,708 62.74% 11,825 35.83% 473 1.43% 8,883 26.91% 33,006
McMinn 12,967 72.71% 4,609 25.84% 258 1.45% 8,358 46.87% 17,834
McNairy 7,015 71.57% 2,645 26.98% 142 1.45% 4,370 44.59% 9,802
Meigs 2,734 68.97% 1,163 29.34% 67 1.69% 1,571 39.63% 3,964
Monroe 11,731 71.80% 4,372 26.76% 235 1.44% 7,359 45.04% 16,338
Montgomery 30,245 54.28% 24,499 43.97% 976 1.75% 5,746 10.31% 55,720
Moore 2,053 73.35% 705 25.19% 41 1.46% 1,348 48.16% 2,799
Morgan 4,669 71.79% 1,725 26.52% 110 1.69% 2,944 45.27% 6,504
Obion 8,814 71.68% 3,321 27.01% 162 1.31% 5,493 44.67% 12,297
Overton 4,775 62.30% 2,805 36.60% 84 1.10% 1,970 25.70% 7,664
Perry 1,578 60.21% 992 37.85% 51 1.94% 586 22.36% 2,621
Pickett 1,712 69.79% 712 29.03% 29 1.18% 1,000 40.76% 2,453
Polk 4,108 67.80% 1,856 30.63% 95 1.57% 2,252 37.17% 6,059
Putnam 17,254 67.66% 7,802 30.60% 444 1.74% 9,452 37.06% 25,500
Rhea 7,802 73.67% 2,628 24.82% 160 1.51% 5,174 48.85% 10,590
Roane 14,724 69.82% 6,018 28.53% 348 1.65% 8,706 41.29% 21,090
Robertson 17,643 67.11% 8,290 31.53% 356 1.36% 9,353 35.58% 26,289
Rutherford 60,846 61.56% 36,414 36.84% 1,588 1.60% 24,432 24.72% 98,848
Scott 5,117 76.74% 1,452 21.78% 99 1.48% 3,665 54.96% 6,668
Sequatchie 3,541 68.72% 1,489 28.90% 123 2.38% 2,052 39.82% 5,153
Sevier 25,984 76.73% 7,418 21.91% 462 1.36% 18,566 54.82% 33,864
Shelby 135,649 36.50% 232,443 62.55% 3,524 0.95% -96,794 -26.05% 371,616
Smith 4,495 63.41% 2,470 34.84% 124 1.75% 2,025 28.57% 7,089
Stewart 2,963 57.93% 2,069 40.45% 83 1.62% 894 17.48% 5,115
Sullivan 43,562 72.74% 15,321 25.58% 1,004 1.68% 28,241 47.16% 59,887
Sumner 46,003 70.28% 18,579 28.38% 875 1.34% 27,424 41.90% 65,457
Tipton 16,672 69.23% 7,133 29.62% 276 1.15% 9,539 39.61% 24,081
Trousdale 1,612 55.49% 1,240 42.69% 53 1.82% 372 12.80% 2,905
Unicoi 5,032 71.01% 1,913 27.00% 141 1.99% 3,119 44.01% 7,086
Union 4,282 73.35% 1,478 25.32% 78 1.33% 2,804 48.03% 5,838
Van Buren 1,386 60.26% 875 38.04% 39 1.70% 511 22.22% 2,300
Warren 8,010 61.54% 4,752 36.51% 253 1.95% 3,258 25.03% 13,015
Washington 32,808 68.30% 14,325 29.82% 899 1.88% 18,483 38.48% 48,032
Wayne 4,253 77.52% 1,163 21.20% 70 1.28% 3,090 56.32% 5,486
Weakley 8,605 69.75% 3,548 28.76% 184 1.49% 5,057 40.99% 12,337
White 6,197 67.80% 2,795 30.58% 148 1.62% 3,402 37.22% 9,140
Williamson 69,850 72.59% 25,142 26.13% 1,233 1.28% 44,708 46.46% 96,225
Wilson 36,109 69.98% 14,695 28.48% 793 1.54% 21,414 41.50% 51,597
Totals 1,462,330 59.42% 960,709 39.04% 37,865 1.54% 501,621 20.38% 2,460,904
 
 

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Mitt Romney swept the state and carried seven of the state's nine congressional districts, all represented by Republicans. Barack Obama carried the state's two congressional districts, the 5th and 9th, anchored by the two largest cities of Nashville and Memphis, respectively.[25]

District Romney Obama Representative
1st 72.7% 25.7%
Phil Roe
2nd 67.3% 30.9% John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd 63.3% 35.1% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 65.3% 33.1% Scott DesJarlais
5th 42.5% 55.9% Jim Cooper
6th 69.1% 29.5% Diane Black
7th 65.7% 32.9% Marsha Blackburn
8th 66.1% 32.8% Stephen Fincher
9th 20.9% 78.3% Steve Cohen

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2012". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 6, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Tennessee". Retrieved January 4, 2013.
  3. ^ Moskowitz, Seth (March 2, 2020). "The Road to 270: Tennessee". 270toWin. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  4. ^ Skelley, Geoffrey. "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Sheets. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  5. ^ "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Hardeman County, Tennessee". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  6. ^ "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Haywood County, Tennessee". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  7. ^ Rothenberg, Stuart (October 3, 2017). "What Happened to Mountain Republicans in the South?". Inside Elections. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  8. ^ "State of Tennessee Democratic presidential primary" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 12, 2017. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
  9. ^ "State of Tennessee March 6, 2012 Democratic Primary Presidential Preference" (PDF). Tennessee Elections. Tennessee Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 12, 2017. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
  10. ^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
  11. ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  12. ^ Nate Silver (March 4, 2012). "Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  13. ^ "Tennessee Republican Primary - Election Results". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  14. ^ "Election results March 2012. County totals" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2012. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
  15. ^ "Election 2012: Tennessee Republican Primary". The New York Times. March 8, 2012. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012.
  16. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Tennessee". CNN. March 29, 2012. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
  17. ^ "2012 Tennessee Primary". Fox News. 2012. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012.
  18. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  19. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  20. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  21. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  22. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  23. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  24. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  25. ^ Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos.
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