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2012 United States presidential election in Nevada

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

The 2012 United States presidential election in Nevada took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. State voters chose six electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

2012 United States presidential election in Nevada
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
 
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 531,373 463,567
Percentage 52.36% 45.68%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Nevada was won by President Barack Obama with 52.36% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 45.68%, a 6.68% margin of victory.[1] In 2008, Obama won the state by 12.50%. Nevada has voted for the winner in every presidential election from 1912 onwards, except in 1976 when it voted for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter and in 2016 when it voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Carson City, which voted for Obama in 2008, flipped to supporting the Republican Party this election cycle. Despite only winning two counties (Clark and Washoe), these counties consist of over 87% of Nevada's population and are home to Las Vegas and Reno, the largest and third largest cities in the state, thus allowing Obama to win by a comfortable margin.[2]

Caucuses

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Democratic caucuses

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Incumbent president Barack Obama was not challenged for the Democratic candidacy, so no Democratic caucuses were held.

Republican caucuses

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Main article: Republican Party presidential primaries
2012 Nevada Republican caucuses
 
← 2008 February 4, 2012 (2012-02-04) 2016 →
← FL
CO →
     
Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Delegate count 20 8
Popular vote 16,486 6,175
Percentage 50.02% 18.73%
     
Candidate Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum
Home state Georgia Pennsylvania
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 6,956 3,277
Percentage 21.10% 9.94%
 
Romney:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
Gingrich:      30–40%
Paul:      30–40%      40–50%

The Republican caucuses were held on February 4,[3] and they are closed caucuses.[4] Mitt Romney was declared the winner.[5]

There are 400,310 registered Republicans voting for 28 delegates.[6][7]

Date

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The 2012 Nevada Republican caucuses were originally scheduled to begin on February 18, 2012,[8] much later than the date in 2008, which almost immediately followed the beginning of the year in January 2008.[9] On September 29, 2011, the entire schedule of caucuses and primaries was disrupted, however, when it was announced that the Republican Party of Florida had decided to move up its primary to January 31, in an attempt to bring attention to its own primary contest, and attract the presidential candidates to visit the state.[10] Because of the move, the Republican National Committee decided to strip Florida of half of its delegates.[11] Also as a result, the Nevada Republican Party, along with Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, then sought to move their caucuses back into early January.[11] All but Nevada, who agreed to follow Florida,[12] confirmed their caucus and primary dates to take place throughout January, with Nevada deciding to hold their contest on February 4, 2012.[13]

The caucuses for 1,835 precincts in 125 sites were scheduled: voting from 9 AM - 1 PM, ballots handling 9-10 AM and to conclude by 3 PM at the latest on February 4, with results for almost all counties to be announced by the party at 5 PM.

Clark County

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For Clark County, a special caucus was held at the Adelson Educational Campus at 7 PM, intended to accommodate those who observe Saturday Sabbath.[14] According to Philip Kantor, an Orthodox Jew, the goal of the after-work caucus was to prevent electoral fraud "It has everything to do with not being deprived of a vote, being disenfranchised".[15] This late caucus allowed a timely vote for Seventh-day Adventists, Orthodox Jews and other who don't vote until Sabbath is over.[16] Adelson campus caucus attendees were required to sign affidavits stating that they had not already cast their ballot in an earlier caucus, that day.[14] There was only one nationwide televised (by CNN) public vote-count.[17] That Adelson caucus count provided the following Candidate vote results: Ron Paul 183, Mitt Romney 61, Newt Gingrich 57, and Rick Santorum 16 votes.[18] The results of this special caucus were announced Feb 4.[19] Paul got second place in Clark County, but Gingrich was ahead of Paul by a larger margin in the rest of the state and therefore ended up beating Paul statewide for second place.[20]

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the February 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries § Nevada (February 4)

Results

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Turnout was 8.23%. 1,800 of 1,800 precincts (100%) reporting.[21]
The voting-eligible population (400,310 registered Nevada Republicans).[6]
125 caucus sites.

Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 3.57% or more of the vote proportionally

Nevada Republican caucuses, February 4, 2012[22]
Candidate Votes Percentage Projected delegate count Actual Delegates
[23][24]
AP
[25] 		CNN
[26] 		MSNBC
[27]
Mitt Romney 16,486 50.02% 14 14 14 20
Newt Gingrich 6,956 21.10% 6 6 6 0
Ron Paul 6,175 18.73% 5 5 5 8
Rick Santorum 3,277 9.94% 3 3 3 0
No Vote 67 0.20% 0 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0 0
Total: 32,961 100% 28 28 28 28

This final result was announced by Twitter and the Nevada Republican Party on Monday February 6, at 01:01 am PST (local time).[28] The actual Republican National Convention delegates from Nevada are mostly Ron Paul supporters (22 of 28), which were elected by state convention on May 6. The Nevada Republican Party's rules state that most elected delegates to the RNC are still bound to vote for Romney (in the first round of voting), because of Romney's statewide caucuses winning.

Nevada State Convention Delegates May 6, 2012
Candidate Supporters for this candidate who are Delegates from NV to the RNC [29][30][31][32][33][34]
Ron Paul 22
Mitt Romney 6
Totals: 28

Controversy

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Allegations of voter fraud have arisen due to a recount of Clark County ballots despite there being no official contest from any of the campaigns. One reason given by the GOP was that there were more ballots cast than people "signed in" at some precincts.[35]

General election

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Candidate ballot access

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Polling

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Throughout the race, Barack Obama tied or won every single pre-election poll except one. The final poll showed Obama leading 51% to 47%, while the average of the last 3 polls showed Obama leading Romney 50% to 47%.[36]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[37] Lean D November 6, 2012
CNN[38] Tossup November 6, 2012
New York Times[39] Lean D November 6, 2012
Washington Post[40] Tossup November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[41] Tossup November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] Likely D November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[43] Solid D November 6, 2012

Results

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2012 United States presidential election in Nevada[44]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 531,373 52.36% 6
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 463,567 45.68% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 10,968 1.08% 0
Other/None 5,770 0.57% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 3,240 0.32% 0
Total 1,014,918 100%

By county

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County Barack Obama
Democratic 		Mitt Romney
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Carson City 10,291 44.13% 12,394 53.15% 634 2.72% -2,103 -9.02% 23,319
Churchill 2,961 28.85% 7,061 68.79% 243 2.36% -4,100 -39.94% 10,265
Clark 389,936 56.42% 289,053 41.82% 12,201 1.76% 100,883 14.60% 691,190
Douglas 9,297 35.65% 16,276 62.42% 502 1.93% -6,979 -26.77% 26,075
Elko 3,511 21.96% 12,014 75.15% 461 2.89% -8,503 -53.19% 15,986
Esmeralda 92 21.15% 317 72.87% 26 5.98% -225 -51.72% 435
Eureka 107 13.24% 663 82.05% 38 4.71% -556 -68.81% 808
Humboldt 1,737 30.24% 3,810 66.33% 197 3.43% -2,073 -36.09% 5,744
Lander 534 24.67% 1,580 72.98% 51 2.35% -1,046 -48.31% 2,165
Lincoln 400 18.59% 1,691 78.58% 61 2.83% -1,291 -59.99% 2,152
Lyon 7,380 34.38% 13,520 62.99% 565 2.63% -6,140 -28.61% 21,465
Mineral 863 42.41% 1,080 53.07% 92 4.52% -217 -10.66% 2,035
Nye 6,320 36.07% 10,566 60.30% 636 3.63% -4,246 -24.23% 17,522
Pershing 632 33.55% 1,167 61.94% 85 4.51% -535 -28.39% 1,884
Storey 920 39.76% 1,321 57.09% 73 3.15% -401 -17.33% 2,314
Washoe 95,409 50.79% 88,453 47.09% 3,993 2.12% 6,956 3.70% 187,855
White Pine 983 26.54% 2,601 70.22% 120 3.24% -1,618 -43.68% 3,704
Totals 531,373 52.36% 463,567 45.68% 19,978 1.97% 67,806 6.68% 1,014,918
 
County Flips:
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Obama won 3 of 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[45]

District Obama Romney Representative
1st 65.64% 32.4% Dina Titus
2nd 44.82% 52.88% Mark Amodei
3rd 49.53% 48.73% Joe Heck
4th 54.43% 43.71% Steven Horsford

Analysis

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Nevada has historically been a swing state. It has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912, except for 1976 and 2016. From 1992 to 2004, the margin of victory was always under five points. In 2008, however, the state swung over dramatically to support Obama, who carried it by 12.49%.

In 2012, Obama held onto Nevada, though by a narrower margin of 6.68%. This was due almost entirely to Obama carrying the state's two largest counties–Clark County, home to Las Vegas and Henderson, and Washoe County, home to Reno. These two counties account for 85% of Nevada's population. Romney dominated the state's rural counties, which have supported Republicans for decades. However, the only large jurisdiction he carried was the independent city of Carson City.

As in 2008, Obama owed his victory in part to the state's Hispanic voters breaking heavily for him. According to exit polls, Hispanics made up 19% of the electorate and voted for Obama by almost three-to-one.[46]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "US Presidential Race". nvsos.gov. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
  2. ^ "Census.gov". Census.gov. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  3. ^ Peoples, Steve (October 22, 2011). "Nevada Caucus Date: Nevada Moves Date To Feb. 4". Huffington Post. Retrieved November 4, 2011.
  4. ^ "Nevada Republican Delegation 2012". The Green Papers.
  5. ^ Barabak, Mark Z. (February 4, 2012). "Mitt Romney cruises to victory in Nevada caucuses". Los Angeles Times.
  6. ^ a b "Voter Registration Statistics: Active Voters by County and Party". Nevada Secretary of State. January 2012. Retrieved February 2, 2012.
  7. ^ Active Voters by Party and Age
  8. ^ Adair, Cory (December 16, 2010). "Nevada to Hold Presidential Caucus on February 18, 2012". Nevada Republican Party. Retrieved November 4, 2011.
  9. ^ "Nevada Primary Results". The New York Times. Retrieved November 4, 2011.
  10. ^ Taylor, Steven (September 29, 2011). "Florida Moves its Primary". Outside the Beltway. Retrieved November 3, 2011.
  11. ^ a b Jacobs, Jennifer (October 25, 2011). "GOP chairman: Florida will be penalized, and 2012 race is now set". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 3, 2011.
  12. ^ Nir, David (October 24, 2011). "Nevada Republicans cave, move caucuses to Feb. 4". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 3, 2011.
  13. ^ "Nevada moves caucus to Feb. 4 after backlash". USA Today. Associated Press. October 22, 2011. Retrieved November 4, 2011.
  14. ^ a b Molly Ball (27 January 2012), "In Nevada, Sheldon Adelson Gets His Very Own Caucus" The Atlantic.
  15. ^ Las Vegas Review Journal Adelson distances himself from GOP special caucus decision
  16. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (February 4, 2012). "Will Nevada Give Romney A Second Straight Victory?". CNN. Retrieved February 8, 2012 – via wesh.com.
  17. ^ Byers, Dylan (February 10, 2012). "On television, CNN wins the election". Politico. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  18. ^ "Troubles abound at special Las Vegas caucus". Jefferson City News-Tribune. February 5, 2012. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  19. ^ "Nevada's Night 'Jewish Caucus' Won by Paul". The Forward. February 6, 2012. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  20. ^ "Another Win: Romney Adds Nevada To His Victories". NPR. February 4, 2012. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  21. ^ "NVGOP Caucus Results Certified". Nevada Republican Party. Retrieved February 22, 2012.[permanent dead link‍]
  22. ^ "AP Results via Google". Retrieved February 6, 2012.
  23. ^ "Ron Paul Wins Maine | Jamie Dupree Washington Insider". AJC. May 6, 2012. Archived from the original on May 8, 2012. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
  24. ^ "Delegate fight Snowe LePage today at convention". Portland Press Herald. May 7, 2012.
  25. ^ "Nevada Caucus Results". USA Today. February 4, 2012. Archived from the original on June 13, 2012.
  26. ^ "Republican Caucuses". CNN. February 4, 2012.
  27. ^ "MSNBC Republican Caucuses". MSNBC. February 4, 2012. Archived from the original on January 15, 2012.
  28. ^ @NVVoteCount (February 6, 2012). "@NVVoteCount NV Caucus Results B 00 TOTAL 32963 IN 1800 OF 1800 GIN 6956 PAU 6175 ROM 16486 SAN 3277 NOV 69 (1/1)" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  29. ^ "Ron Paul supporters capture majority of Nevada’s national delegates" Accessed May 8, 2012. Las Vegas Sun.
  30. ^ "Ron Paul’s stealth state convention takeover" Accessed May 8, 2012. Washington Post.
  31. ^ "Ron Paul wins big in Maine and Nevada" Accessed May 8, 2012. Christian Science Monitor.
  32. ^ "Ron Paul's Maine, Nevada, and Iowa Victories (Despite Romney Dirty Tricks) Accessed May 8, 2012. reason.com"
  33. ^ "Libertarians Find Their Audience In 2012 Race" Accessed May 8, 2012. NPR.
  34. ^ "Ron Paul at Nevada State Convention 2012 " Accessed May 8, 2012. Video of NV convention speech.
  35. ^ "WLong lines, complaints of election fraud plague special Las Vegas caucus for religious voters". The Washington Post. February 5, 2012. Archived from the original on February 9, 2012. Retrieved February 5, 2012.
  36. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Nevada: Romney vs. Obama". Archived from the original on May 4, 2011.
  37. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  38. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  39. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  40. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  41. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  42. ^ Sabato, Larry J.; Kondik, Kyle; Skelley, Geoffrey (November 5, 2012). "Projection: Obama will likely win second term".
  43. ^ Griffin, Leeanne (November 7, 2012). "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome". masslive.
  44. ^ "Nevada Secretary of State". Archived from the original on November 9, 2012. Retrieved November 10, 2012.
  45. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  46. ^ "Nevada Presidential Race". CNN.
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