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2012 United States presidential election in Arizona

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

The 2012 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. State voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Romney would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Arizona was won by Romney with a 9.06% margin. Obama remains the only president to win two terms in office without carrying Arizona either time since the state's founding in 1912. Arizona is also one of only two states that voted against Obama in both 2008 and 2012 that his vice president Joe Biden would go on to win in 2020, the other being Georgia.

2012 United States presidential election in Arizona
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout74.36%
 
Nominee Mitt Romney Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Massachusetts Illinois
Running mate Paul Ryan Joe Biden
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,233,654 1,025,232
Percentage 53.65% 44.59%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Until 2020, Arizona had been won by the Republican nominee for president in every election since 1952, except when Bill Clinton narrowly carried the state over Bob Dole in 1996. This is also the most recent time that Arizona has backed the losing candidate in a presidential election and the last time a Democrat won the presidency without winning Arizona.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Incumbent President Barack Obama won all the delegates.

Republican primary

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2012 Arizona Republican primary
 
← 2008 February 28, 2012 (2012-02-28) 2016 →
← ME
MI →
     
Candidate Mitt Romney Rick Santorum
Home state Massachusetts Pennsylvania
Delegate count 29 0
Popular vote 216,805 122,088
Percentage 47.3% 26.6%
     
Candidate Newt Gingrich Ron Paul
Home state Georgia Texas
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 74,110 38,753
Percentage 16.2% 8.45%
 
Romney
  30–40%
  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%

The Republican primary was a closed primary that took place on February 28, 2012.[1] More than 1,130,000 registered Republican voters participated in the event, the purpose of which was to select delegates from the state to attend the Republican National Convention on behalf of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. The Republican National Committee removed half of Arizona's delegate allocation because the state committee moved its Republican primary before March 6. Arizona therefore held a ballot to select 29 proportionally-allocated delegates. This election occurred the same day as the Michigan Republican primary. The Arizona primary was set as a winner-take-all contest, another violation of RNC delegate allocation rules, which require proportional allocation for all primaries held before April 1. Endorsements from 2008 primary rival and U.S. Senator John McCain[2] and Governor Jan Brewer[3] helped add to the prospects of a victory for Romney in Arizona.

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries § Arizona (February 28)

Project White House

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The small alternative newspaper Tucson Weekly, for the second election in a row, has sponsored an event called "Project White House"[4] in which it gets as many ordinary citizens on the ballot as it possibly can. Afterward, a series of "reality show style" competitions occurred, including candidate meet-and-greets, and two televised debates which were sponsored by the Tucson Weekly, a local public-access television show called Illegal Knowledge, and local public television stations.[5]

The two debates took place on February 18 and February 19, 2012, both were commercial-free, one hour long each, and both aired on Access Tucson while they were streamed live on the internet.[6][7][8][9] Both debates were produced in conjunction with Project White House and Jim Nintzel of the Tucson Weekly.

The first debate, held on the 18th at 8 pm MST, produced by Illegal Knowledge[6] and hosted by Dave Maass of San Diego CityBeat,[10] had nine participants, composed of eight lesser known Republican candidates (Donald Benjamin, Simon Bollander, Cesar Cisneros, Kip Dean, Sarah Gonzales, Al "Dick" Perry, Charles Skelley and Jim Terr) and one Green Party candidate (Michael Oatman).[7] A press release regarding this first debate was distributed which invited all candidates listed on either Republican or Green Party ballots in Arizona to the first debate,[11] although none of the major Republican or Green Party candidates appeared.

The second debate, held on the 19th at 7pm MST, produced by Access Tucson[8] and hosted by both Dave Maass of San Diego CityBeat and Amanda Hurley of The University of Arizona School of Journalism,[10] was restricted only to Republican candidates and featured seven of the eight lesser known Republican candidates from the previous night (less Cesar Cisneros).[9]

There was a third Arizona debate which took place in Mesa, AZ on February 22, 2012, but was not associated with Project White House and had only invited the four major Republican candidates to participate.[12][13]

Two lesser known candidates appearing in the first debates, Sarah Gonzales (who placed sixth) and Michael Oatman (who placed tied for third), placed ahead of their better known Republican and Green Party counterparts (Buddy Roemer and Gerard Davis respectively) in the Arizona Presidential Preference Election Results from February 28, 2012.[14]

Campaign

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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum were contesting and campaigning in the Arizona primary.

Televised debates in Arizona were held on February 18 and 19, 2012, on Public-access television[15] and February 22, 2012, on CNN. Only the major Republican candidates, except for Roemer,[16] were invited to the third, and none of them attended the first two.

Twenty-three candidates appeared on the presidential primary ballot,[17] 11 of whom are residents of the state.[18]

Results

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Main article: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
 
The 2012 Arizona Republican state convention, which determined delegates who would be sent to the RNC.

Arizona was allocated 29 delegates because it moved its primary to February 28.[19]

Voter turnout = 45.3%[20]

Arizona Republican primary, 2012[21]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates[22]
Mitt Romney 239,167 46.87% 26
Rick Santorum 138,031 27.05% 0
Newt Gingrich 81,748 16.02% 0
Ron Paul 43,952 8.61% 3
Rick Perry (withdrawn) 2,023 0.40% 0
Sarah Gonzales 1,544 0.30% 0
Buddy Roemer (withdrawn) 692 0.14% 0
Paul Sims 530 0.10% 0
Cesar Cisneros 418 0.08% 0
Mark Callahan 358 0.07% 0
Al "Dick" Perry 310 0.06% 0
Donald Benjamin 223 0.04% 0
Michael Levinson 217 0.04% 0
Kip Dean 198 0.04% 0
Ronald Zack 156 0.03% 0
Christopher Hill 139 0.03% 0
Frank Lynch 110 0.02% 0
Wayne Charles Arnett 96 0.02% 0
Raymond Scott Perkins 90 0.02% 0
Matt Welch 86 0.02% 0
Jim Terr 59 0.01% 0
Charles Skelley 57 0.01% 0
Simon Bollander 54 0.01% 0
Total: 510,258 100.00% 29

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[23] Tossup November 6, 2012
CNN[24] Lean R November 6, 2012
New York Times[25] Lean R November 6, 2012
Washington Post[26] Safe R November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[27] Lean R November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Solid R November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[29] Solid R November 6, 2012

Ballot access

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  • Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan, Republican
  • Barack Obama/Joseph Biden, Democratic
  • Gary Johnson/James P. Gray, Libertarian
  • Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala, Green

Write-in candidate access:

  • Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer, Constitution
  • Rocky Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez, Justice

Results

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2012 United States presidential election in Arizona[30]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 1,233,654 53.48% 11
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 1,025,232 44.45% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 32,100 1.39% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 7,816 0.34% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 289 0.01% 0
Justice Rocky Anderson Luis J. Rodriguez 119 0.01% 0
Other Write-In Other Write-In 7,349 0.32% 0
Totals 2,306,559 100.00% 11

By county

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County Mitt Romney
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Apache 8,250 31.83% 17,147 66.16% 520 2.01% -8,897 -34.33% 25,917
Cochise 29,497 59.95% 18,546 37.69% 1,158 2.35% 10,951 22.26% 49,201
Coconino 21,220 40.84% 29,257 56.30% 1,485 2.86% -8,037 -15.46% 51,962
Gila 13,455 62.31% 7,697 35.64% 443 2.05% 5,758 26.67% 21,595
Graham 8,076 67.84% 3,609 30.31% 220 1.85% 4,467 37.53% 11,905
Greenlee 1,592 53.32% 1,310 43.87% 84 2.81% 282 9.45% 2,986
La Paz 3,714 64.76% 1,880 32.78% 141 2.46% 1,834 31.98% 5,735
Maricopa 749,885 54.30% 602,288 43.61% 28,786 2.08% 147,597 10.69% 1,380,959
Mohave 49,168 69.91% 19,533 27.77% 1,627 2.31% 29,635 42.14% 70,328
Navajo 19,884 53.07% 16,945 45.23% 636 1.70% 2,939 7.84% 37,465
Pima 174,779 45.61% 201,251 52.52% 7,143 1.86% -26,472 -6.91% 383,173
Pinal 62,079 57.12% 44,306 40.77% 2,297 2.11% 17,773 16.35% 108,682
Santa Cruz 4,235 30.44% 9,486 68.19% 190 1.37% -5,251 -37.75% 13,911
Yavapai 64,468 64.04% 33,918 33.69% 2,281 2.27% 30,550 30.35% 100,667
Yuma 23,352 55.50% 18,059 42.92% 662 1.57% 5,293 12.58% 42,073
Totals 1,233,654 53.48% 1,025,232 44.45% 47,673 2.07% 208,422 9.03% 2,306,559

By congressional district

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Romney won 6 of 9 districts, including two that elected Democrats.[31]

District Obama Romney Representative
1st 47.89% 50.42% Ann Kirkpatrick
2nd 48.37% 49.94% Ron Barber
3rd 61.44% 36.94% Raúl Grijalva
4th 31.02% 67.19% Paul Gosar
5th 34.56% 63.76% Matt Salmon
6th 38.82% 59.52% David Schweikert
7th 71.7% 26.51% Ed Pastor
8th 36.87% 61.68% Trent Franks
9th 51.12% 46.59% Kyrsten Sinema

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Burns, Alexander (September 12, 2011). "Arizona flouts rules, keeps February primary". The Politico. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
  2. ^ "John McCain Endorses Romney | Fox News". Fox News. January 4, 2012. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  3. ^ "Jan Brewer Endorses Romney". The Huffington Post. February 26, 2012. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  4. ^ "Project White House 2012 Feature, Tucson Weekly". Tucson Weekly. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  5. ^ "Project White House 2012, Tucson Weekly". Tucson Weekly. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  6. ^ a b "Illegal Knowledge TV Episode 401, Access Tucson". Access Tucson. Retrieved March 5, 2012.[permanent dead link‍]
  7. ^ a b "IKTV401 Let's Get On TV 2012 Illegal Knowledge's Arizona Presidential Preference Election Debate Special". Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  8. ^ a b "Project White House Debate 2012, Access Tucson". Access Tucson. Retrieved March 5, 2012.[permanent dead link‍]
  9. ^ a b "Project White House Debate 2012". Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  10. ^ a b "Dave Maass, Project White House Debates!". Dave Maass. Archived from the original on January 28, 2013. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  11. ^ "Announcing First Arizona Presidential Preference Election Debate in 2012 (press release)". Michael Oatman, Host / Producer Illegal Knowledge TV. February 15, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  12. ^ "CNN Observations: CNN Arizona GOP Presidential Debate Airs Tonight".
  13. ^ "GOP Candidates to Appear for Final Debate before Super Tuesday - Ratings | TVbytheNumbers". Archived from the original on February 25, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  14. ^ "February 28, 2012 Election Results". Ken Bennett, Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  15. ^ "Project White House 2012".
  16. ^ Mendte, Larry (February 16, 2012). "Why Are the Republicans Hiding Buddy Roemer? | The Philly Post". Philadelphia Magazine. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  17. ^ Bennett, Ken. "2012 Presidential Preference Election - Ballot Order". Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original on March 14, 2012. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
  18. ^ https://news.yahoo.com/23-official-candidates-arizona-primary-ballot-other-significant-001800979.html [dead link‍]
  19. ^ "Iowa Caucuses & New Hampshire Primary Guide" (PDF). NBC News. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 26, 2012. Retrieved December 29, 2011.
  20. ^ "State of Arizona Registration Report" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. February 29, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 13, 2012. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
  21. ^ "AZ - Election Results". Archived from the original on April 5, 2015. Retrieved April 5, 2015.
  22. ^ Arizona Daily Star: 3 of 29 AZ delegates break ranks, vote for Ron Paul. August 29, 2012.
  23. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  24. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  25. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  26. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  27. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  28. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  29. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  30. ^ "Arizona Secretary of State". Arizona Secretary of State.
  31. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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