The 2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar faced Republican State Representative Kurt Bills. Klobuchar was reelected in a landslide, defeating Bills by almost one million votes and carrying all but two of the state's 87 counties by double digits, only narrowly losing the counties of Pipestone and Rock in the state's southwest corner.[1] This election marked the first time since 1996 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected and the first time since 1976 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected to this seat.
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   Klobuchar: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bills: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
editIncumbent Amy Klobuchar was first elected in 2006 to succeed the retiring DFL incumbent Mark Dayton. She beat Republican nominee Mark Kennedy, 58% to 38%. Klobuchar served as Minnesota's only senator between January 3 and July 7, 2009, due to the contested results of Minnesota's senatorial election held the previous year, finally decided in favor of DFLer Al Franken.
DFL primary
editThe Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012.[2]
Candidates
editDeclared
edit- Dick Franson, perennial candidate[3]
- Amy Klobuchar, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Jack Shepard, dentist, convicted felon, fugitive and perennial candidate[4][5]
- Darryl Stanton
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) | 183,702 | 90.79 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Dick Franson | 6,832 | 3.38 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Jack Shepard | 6,638 | 3.28 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Darryl Stanton | 5,160 | 2.55 | |
| Total votes | 202,332 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
editThe Republican Party of Minnesota held its nominating convention in May 2012 and held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012.[2]
Candidates
editDeclared
edit- Kurt Bills, state representative; won May 2012 convention nomination[7]
- David Carlson, former Marine Corps sergeant; candidate in August 2012 primary
- Bob Carney Jr., inventor, independent businessman; finished 2nd in 2010 GOP primary for Governor of Minnesota, candidate in August 2012 primary[8]
Withdrew
edit- Joe Arwood, St. Bonifacius city councilman; withdrew before May 2012 convention
- Pete Hegseth, executive director of Vets for Freedom; withdrew after May 2012 convention
- Anthony Hernandez, former state senate candidate; withdrew before May 2012 convention to run for Congress against Betty McCollum
- Dan Severson, former state representative; withdrew after May 2012 convention
Results
edit
Bills
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Carlson
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kurt Bills | 63,380 | 51.12 | |
| Republican | David Carlson | 43,847 | 35.37 | |
| Republican | Bob Carney, Jr. | 16,755 | 13.51 | |
| Total votes | 123,982 | 100 | ||
Independence primary
editCampaign
editThe Independence Party of Minnesota did not plan to run a candidate in the general election. Party chairman Mark Jenkins said in November 2011 that he saw the Senate election as "a distraction from having our best and brightest engaged in state legislative races".[9] At the party's convention in June 2012, neither candidate was endorsed. Williams won a majority of the votes and came within two votes of the required 60% needed for the party's endorsement. He proceeded with his run for the Senate but the party focused its attention on state legislative races.[10]
Candidates
edit- Stephen Williams, farmer and Independence Party endorsed candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008[11]
- Glen R. Anderson Menze, accountant and Republican nominee in 2008 and Independence Party nominee in 2010 for the 7th congressional district[11]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independence | Stephen Williams | 3,068 | 59.67 | |
| Independence | Glen R. Anderson Menze | 2,074 | 40.33 | |
| Total votes | 5,142 | 100 | ||
General election
editCandidates
edit- Amy Klobuchar (DFL), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Kurt Bills (Republican), State Representative
- Stephen Williams Archived November 9, 2012, at the Wayback Machine (Independence), Farmer
- Michael Cavlan, (Minnesota Open Progressives) Registered Nurse
- Tim Davis, (Grassroots), Environmental Activist
Debates
editOn August 29 Klobuchar and Bills held their second debate at the State Fair, sponsored by MPR News. Their third debate, on September 16 in Duluth, was about the nation's struggle with deficit spending and unemployment. The audience was assembled by the Duluth Area Chamber of Commerce and Duluth News Tribune.[12] External links
- Complete video at Minnesota Public Radio, second debate, August 29, 2012
- Audio from Minnesota Public Radio, third debate, September 18, 2012
Fundraising
edit| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt | Current Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Klobuchar (DFL) | $6,301,413 | $2,530,567 | $5,393,798 | $0 | July 25, 2012 |
| Kurt Bills (R) | $394,547 | $388,720 | $5,841 | $0 | July 25, 2012 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[13] | |||||
Top contributors
editThis section lists the top contributors by employer. These organizations themselves didn't donate, but these numbers include donations from their PACs, members, employees, owners, and their immediate families.
| Amy Klobuchar | Contribution | Kurt Bills | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey & Whitney | $61,100 | Liberty PAC | $10,000 |
| Target Corp | $56,050 | Craw | $10,000 |
| General Mills | $51,750 | Primera Technology | $10,000 |
| U.S. Bancorp | $51,139 | Minnesota Limited Pipeline | $7,500 |
| Robins, Kaplan, Miller & Ciresi | $49,150 | Ameriprise Financial | $5,000 |
| Medtronic Inc. | $41,025 | Bachmann for Congress | $5,000 |
| Toys R Us | $36,500 | Exactdrive | $5,000 |
| Leonard, Street & Deinard | $34,350 | New Spark Holdings | $5,000 |
| Comcast Corp | $33,623 | TACPAC | $5,000 |
| Wells Fargo | $32,400 | Twin City Fan Companies | $5,000 |
| Source: OpenSecrets,[14] Current through: March 9, 2012 | |||
Top industries
edit| Amy Klobuchar | Contribution | Kurt Bills | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/Law Firms | $989,929 | Leadership PACs | $17,850 |
| Retired | $447,082 | Republican/Conservative | $13,750 |
| Leadership PACs | $302,150 | Financial Institutions | $13,250 |
| Lobbyists | $282,430 | Real Estate | $12,550 |
| Financial Institutions | $269,033 | Retired | $10,350 |
| Entertainment industry | $256,711 | Energy Industry | $10,250 |
| Women's Issues | $196,866 | Electronics Manufacturing | $10,000 |
| Retail industry | $181,850 | Misc. Business | $9,450 |
| Commercial Banks | $159,139 | Manufacturing & Distributing | $7,850 |
| Pharmaceuticals/Health Products | $149,725 | Computers/Internet | $7,350 |
| Source: OpenSecrets,[15] Current through: March 9, 2012 | |||
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[16] | Solid D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[18] | Safe D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[19] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Kurt Bills (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[20] | May 31 – June 3, 2012 | 973 | ±3.1% | 55% | 29% | — | 16% |
| Survey USA[21] | July 17–19, 2012 | 552 | ±4.3% | 55% | 31% | 5% | 9% |
| KSTP/Survey USA[22] | September 6–9, 2012 | 551 | ±4.2% | 55% | 34% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[23] | September 10–11, 2012 | 824 | ±3.4% | 55% | 36% | — | 10% |
| Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon[24] | September 17–19, 2012 | 800 | ±3.5% | 57% | 28% | 7% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[25] | October 5–8, 2012 | 937 | ±3.2% | 57% | 31% | — | 12% |
| SurveyUSA/KSTP[26] | October 12–14, 2012 | 550 | ±4.2% | 58% | 30% | 5% | 7% |
| St. Cloud State U.[27] | October 15–21, 2012 | 600 | ±5% | 63% | 36% | 1% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[28] | October 21, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 56% | 33% | 2% | 9% |
| Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon[29] | October 23–25, 2012 | 800 | ±3.5% | 65% | 22% | — | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[30] | October 26–28, 2012 | 574 | ±4.1% | 60% | 29% | 4% | 7% |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA[31] | November 1–3, 2012 | 556 | ±4.2% | 60% | 30% | 3% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | November 2–3, 2012 | 1,164 | ±2.9% | 62% | 32% | — | 6% |
Hypothetical polling
Republican primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Michele Bachmann |
Laura Brod |
Norm Coleman |
Chip Cravaack |
Tom Emmer |
John Kline |
Erik Paulsen |
Tim Pawlenty |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | December 4–5, 2010 | 387 | ±5.0% | 36% | 4% | 14% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 20% | 6% |
General election
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Joe Arwood (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[34] | November 2–6, 2011 | 543 | ±4.3% | 56% | 22% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 21–22, 2012 | 1,236 | ±2.8% | 55% | 30% | — | 15% |
| Survey USA[36] | January 31 – February 2, 2012 | 542 | ±4.2% | 59% | 28% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[20] | May 31 – June 3, 2012 | 973 | ±3.1% | 56% | 29% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Michele Bachmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[37] | December 4–5, 2010 | 949 | ±3.2% | 56% | 39% | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[38] | May 27–30, 2011 | 1,179 | ±2.9% | 57% | 37% | — | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 21–22, 2012 | 1,236 | ±2.8% | 58% | 35% | — | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Norm Coleman (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[37] | December 4–5, 2010 | 949 | ±3.2% | 54% | 40% | — | 6% |
| Survey USA[34] | November 2–6, 2011 | 543 | ±4.3% | 50% | 37% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Tom Emmer (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[37] | December 4–5, 2010 | 949 | ±3.2% | 56% | 38% | — | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Pete Hegseth (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[20] | May 31 – June 3, 2012 | 973 | ±3.1% | 56% | 28% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Anthony Hernandez (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 21–22, 2012 | 1,236 | ±2.8% | 55% | 29% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Erik Paulsen (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[37] | December 4–5, 2010 | 949 | ±3.2% | 52% | 34% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Tim Pawlenty (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[37] | December 4–5, 2010 | 949 | ±3.2% | 53% | 43% | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[38] | May 27–30, 2011 | 1,179 | ±2.9% | 54% | 41% | — | 5% |
| Survey USA[34] | November 2–6, 2011 | 543 | ±4.3% | 49% | 37% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 21–22, 2012 | 1,236 | ±2.8% | 54% | 39% | — | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Dan Severson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | May 27–30, 2011 | 1,179 | ±2.9% | 56% | 28% | — | 16% |
| Survey USA[34] | November 2–6, 2011 | 543 | ±4.3% | 55% | 23% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 21–22, 2012 | 1,236 | ±2.8% | 55% | 32% | — | 13% |
| Survey USA[36] | January 31 – February 2, 2012 | 542 | ±4.3% | 56% | 29% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[20] | May 31 – June 3, 2012 | 973 | ±3.1% | 55% | 27% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Dave Thompson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | May 27–30, 2011 | 1,179 | ±2.9% | 55% | 28% | — | 17% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) | 1,854,595 | 65.23% | +7.17% | |
| Republican | Kurt Bills | 867,974 | 30.53% | −7.41% | |
| Independence | Stephen Williams | 73,539 | 2.59% | −0.64% | |
| Grassroots | Tim Davis | 30,531 | 1.07% | N/A | |
| Open Progressives | Michael Cavlan | 13,986 | 0.49% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 2,582 | 0.09% | +0.05% | ||
| Total votes | 2,843,207 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
edit- Carver (Largest city: Chaska)
- Redwood (largest city: Redwood Falls)
- Wright (Largest city: Otsego)
- Sherburne (Largest city: Elk River)
- Otter Tail (Largest city: Fergus Falls)
- Wadena (Largest city: Wadena)
By congressional district
editKlobuchar won all 8 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.[40]
| District | Klobuchar | Bills | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 62.45% | 32.22% | Tim Walz |
| 2nd | 61.73% | 34.4% | John Kline |
| 3rd | 62.6% | 34.33% | Erik Paulsen |
| 4th | 71.26% | 24.66% | Betty McCollum |
| 5th | 78.71% | 17.09% | Keith Ellison |
| 6th | 58.59% | 37.15% | Michele Bachmann |
| 7th | 61.23% | 34.15% | Collin Peterson |
| 8th | 65.32% | 30.64% | Rick Nolan |
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ "2012 General Election for U.S. Senator" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 11, 2019.
- ^ a b "Minnesota Office of the Secretary of State : Important General Election Dates". Archived from the original on July 13, 2012. Retrieved June 20, 2012.
- ^ Grow, Doug (August 22, 2011). "GOP ready to go after Sen. Klobuchar but has a problem: no first-tier candidate". MinnPost.com. Archived from the original on September 19, 2011. Retrieved August 26, 2011.
- ^ "Convicted felon Jack Shepard, exiled in Italy, files again to run for U.S. Senate". MinnPost. June 1, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
- ^ "Fugitive U.S. Senate candidate Shepard sues Huffington Post, says he's not an arsonist". MinnPost. June 27, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
- ^ a b c "Statewide Results for U.S. Senator". Minnesota Secretary of State. August 15, 2012. Archived from the original on August 24, 2012. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
- ^ "Bills wins GOP nod for U.S. Senate". Star Tribune.
- ^ Jr, Bob Carney. "OPINION EXCHANGE | Minnesota's cookie-cutter GOP". Star Tribune.
- ^ "Minn. Independence Party not in 2012 Senate race". Real Clear Politics. November 12, 2011. Retrieved November 15, 2011.
- ^ "Independence Party stays out of U.S. Senate race, opposes constitutional amendments". Politics in Minnesota. June 25, 2011. Retrieved July 17, 2011.
- ^ a b Condon, Patrick (June 6, 2012). "Minn. 3rd party gets contested Senate primary". Star Tribune. Associated Press. Retrieved June 11, 2012.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Klobuchar, Bills debate unemployment, deficit". MPR News. September 18, 2012.
- ^ "Federal Election Commission". Summary Reports Search. July 25, 2012. Archived from the original on October 6, 2008. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
- ^ "Top Contributors". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012.
- ^ "Top Industries". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ KSTP/Survey USA Archived September 17, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ SurveyUSA/KSTP Archived October 21, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ St. Cloud State U. [permanent dead link]
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ KSTP/SurveyUSA Archived November 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c d Survey USA
- ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b Survey USA
- ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
- ^ "2012 General Election Results". Archived from the original on April 29, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
External links
edit- Election Center from the Minnesota Secretary of State
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
- Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation
- Candidate issue positions at On the Issues
- U.S. Senate election coverage at Minnesota Public Radio
Official campaign websites (Archived)