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2008 United States presidential election in Ohio

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 4, 2008, which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 20 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Ohio
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 20 0
Popular vote 2,940,044 2,677,820
Percentage 51.50% 46.91%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Ohio was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 4.59% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this state as a major swing state and bellwether. Both major party candidates visited Ohio extensively and campaigned throughout the state, trying to sway moderates and independent voters to their side. The polls in Ohio were fairly even throughout the campaign but Obama had a slight lead as Election Day drew closer. In the end, Obama flipped Ohio into the Democratic column. Obama's 2,940,044 votes are the most received by a Democratic presidential candidate in the state's history.

Despite this fact, Obama became the first Democrat ever to win the White House without carrying Pike County. On the other hand, Obama became the first Democrat to win Hamilton County since 1964. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Lake County, Monroe County, Belmont County, Tuscarawas County, and Jefferson County voted for a Democratic presidential candidate.[1]

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[2] Likely R
Cook Political Report[3] Toss-up
The Takeaway[4] Toss-up
Electoral-vote.com[5] Lean D (flip)
Washington Post[6] Lean D (flip)
Politico[7] Lean D (flip)
RealClearPolitics[8] Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight[6] Lean D (flip)
CQ Politics[9] Lean D (flip)
The New York Times[10] Toss-up
CNN[11] Toss-up
NPR[6] Toss-up
MSNBC[6] Lean R
Fox News[12] Toss-up
Associated Press[13] Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports[14] Toss-up

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Ohio

During most of the summer and September, McCain led many state polls, many by 50% or more. Rasmussen had McCain leading with as high as 51% in September.[15] But many voters in the state changed their minds as Obama later gained a steady lead in most polls taken starting in the beginning of October (around the time of the 2008 financial crisis).[16][17]

Fundraising

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Obama raised $7,218,801. McCain raised $5,682,839.[18]

Advertising and visits

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In a major swing state, Obama spent over $28 million to McCain's $24 million.[19] The Republican ticket visited the state 28 times, compared to the Obama ticket's 22 times.[20]

Analysis

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Going into the election, both McCain and Obama knew that Ohio was a crucial state. Earlier in the primary season, Ohio had given a major comeback victory to Hillary Clinton. Both candidates campaigned heavily throughout the state in hopes of winning its 20 electoral votes. As no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, it was seen in particular as a "must-win" state for McCain. George W. Bush's narrow wins in 2000 (by 3.51% against Al Gore) and 2004 (2.10% against John Kerry) proved critical in Bush's narrow wins nationally.

Obama won Ohio's 20 electoral votes by a margin of 4.59%. Obama's win in heavily populated areas such as Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Franklin County (Columbus), Lucas County (Toledo), Montgomery County (Dayton), Summit County (Akron), Stark County (Canton), Mahoning County (Youngstown) and the traditionally Republican Hamilton County (Cincinnati) greatly contributed to his victory in the state.

McCain did best in the Republican base in the center and western regions, composed of relatively rural areas combined with Cincinnati and Columbus' heavily Republican suburbs. In addition, McCain won all but four counties in the Appalachian southeast, mirroring the troubles Obama had throughout this region. On the other hand, Obama did best in the Democratic base—Cleveland (where he won almost 70% of the vote), Youngstown and the heavily unionized counties next to Pennsylvania. However, he was unable to significantly improve upon John Kerry's performance in these areas. More surprisingly, the cities of Cincinnati and Columbus gave Obama strong support. Cincinnati, the only major city that didn't vote for Franklin D. Roosevelt, voted Democratic for the first time since 1964. Columbus, a city shifting to the Democrats, also voted for Obama by a three-to-two margin. In addition, Obama won several northern counties along the shore of Lake Erie that John Kerry had lost in 2004.

As polls closed and results were coming in on Election Night, Republican strategist and adviser Karl Rove joined Brit Hume on Fox News offering analysis. Rove was discussing the impact an Ohio loss would have on McCain's chances of winning the election. "If he loses Ohio," Rove stated of McCain, "he goes from 286, which the Republicans carried in 2004, down to 266, and that puts him below the 270 threshold needed to win the White House. So he'd not only need to sweep the rest of these states which were won by the Republicans in 2004, he'd also need to pick up something as well." In an untimely moment, Hume broke in. "Guess what Karl," Hume interrupted, "I've just received word that the state of Ohio has gone for Barack Obama."[21]

Results

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2008 United States presidential election in Ohio
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 2,940,044 51.50% 20
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 2,677,820 46.91% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 42,337 0.74% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 19,917 0.35% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 13,698 0.24% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 12,565 0.22% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 8,518 0.15% 0
Others Others 6,932 0.12% 0
Totals 5,721,831 100.00% 20
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 67.3%

Results by county

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County Barack Obama
Democratic 		John McCain
Republican 		Ralph Nader[22]
Independent 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # % # %
Adams 4,170 36.53% 6,914 60.57% 131 1.15% 199 1.74% -2,744 -24.04% 11,414
Allen 19,522 38.66% 29,940 59.29% 362 0.72% 671 1.33% -10,418 -20.63% 50,495
Ashland 9,300 36.93% 15,158 60.19% 225 0.89% 502 1.98% -5,858 -23.26% 25,185
Ashtabula 25,027 55.52% 18,949 42.04% 456 1.01% 644 1.44% 6,078 13.48% 45,076
Athens 20,722 66.29% 9,742 31.17% 263 0.84% 532 1.70% 10,980 35.12% 31,259
Auglaize 6,738 28.60% 16,414 69.67% 169 0.72% 238 1.01% -9,676 -41.07% 23,559
Belmont 16,302 50.10% 15,422 47.40% 402 1.24% 410 1.26% 880 2.70% 32,536
Brown 7,503 37.21% 12,192 60.46% 220 1.09% 251 1.25% -4,689 -23.25% 20,166
Butler 66,030 37.94% 105,341 60.52% 1,039 0.60% 1,649 0.95% -39,311 -22.58% 174,059
Carroll 6,423 45.93% 7,097 50.75% 213 1.52% 252 1.80% -674 -4.82% 13,985
Champaign 7,385 39.00% 11,141 58.84% 196 1.04% 214 1.13% -3,756 -19.84% 18,936
Clark 31,958 47.71% 33,634 50.21% 661 0.99% 734 1.09% -1,676 -2.50% 66,987
Clermont 31,611 33.02% 62,559 65.35% 599 0.63% 965 1.01% -30,948 -32.33% 95,734
Clinton 6,558 33.91% 12,409 64.16% 197 1.02% 178 0.92% -5,851 -30.25% 19,342
Columbiana 21,882 44.93% 25,585 52.54% 545 1.12% 687 1.41% -3,703 -7.61% 48,699
Coshocton 7,689 45.39% 8,675 51.22% 221 1.30% 353 2.08% -986 -5.83% 16,938
Crawford 8,289 39.05% 12,316 58.03% 242 1.14% 378 1.77% -4,027 -18.98% 21,225
Cuyahoga 458,422 68.70% 199,880 29.95% 3,616 0.54% 5,381 0.81% 258,542 38.75% 667,299
Darke 7,964 30.82% 17,290 66.92% 273 1.06% 311 1.21% -9,326 -36.10% 25,838
Defiance 8,399 43.67% 10,407 54.11% 154 0.80% 272 1.41% -2,008 -10.44% 19,232
Delaware 36,653 39.59% 54,778 59.17% 359 0.39% 791 0.86% -18,125 -19.58% 92,581
Erie 23,148 55.95% 17,432 42.13% 349 0.84% 446 1.07% 5,716 13.82% 41,375
Fairfield 29,250 40.54% 41,580 57.63% 493 0.68% 824 1.14% -12,330 -17.09% 72,147
Fayette 4,401 37.56% 7,102 60.61% 103 0.88% 112 0.96% -2,701 -23.05% 11,718
Franklin 334,709 59.58% 218,486 38.89% 2,993 0.53% 5,575 1.00% 116,223 20.69% 561,763
Fulton 9,900 44.97% 11,689 53.10% 167 0.76% 257 1.17% -1,789 -8.13% 22,013
Gallia 4,777 35.73% 8,247 61.68% 132 0.99% 215 1.62% -3,470 -25.95% 13,371
Geauga 21,250 41.47% 29,096 56.78% 379 0.74% 520 1.01% -7,846 -15.31% 51,245
Greene 33,540 40.06% 48,936 58.45% 510 0.61% 743 0.88% -15,396 -18.39% 83,729
Guernsey 7,625 43.88% 9,197 52.93% 228 1.31% 325 1.87% -1,572 -9.05% 17,375
Hamilton 225,213 52.98% 195,530 46.00% 1,903 0.45% 2,440 0.58% 29,683 6.98% 425,086
Hancock 13,870 37.43% 22,420 60.50% 309 0.83% 456 1.23% -8,550 -23.07% 37,055
Hardin 5,013 38.12% 7,749 58.93% 139 1.06% 248 1.90% -2,736 -20.81% 13,149
Harrison 3,683 47.12% 3,872 49.53% 104 1.33% 158 2.03% -189 -2.41% 7,817
Henry 6,320 42.55% 8,239 55.47% 115 0.77% 178 1.19% -1,919 -12.92% 14,852
Highland 6,856 35.65% 11,907 61.92% 204 1.06% 264 1.38% -5,051 -26.27% 19,231
Hocking 6,259 48.09% 6,364 48.89% 154 1.18% 239 1.83% -95 -0.80% 13,016
Holmes 3,141 28.21% 7,720 69.34% 113 1.01% 160 1.44% -4,579 -41.13% 11,134
Huron 12,076 47.21% 12,884 50.36% 212 0.83% 410 1.61% -808 -3.15% 25,582
Jackson 5,397 38.42% 8,219 58.51% 179 1.27% 252 1.79% -2,822 -20.09% 14,047
Jefferson 17,635 48.89% 17,559 48.68% 395 1.10% 482 1.33% 76 0.21% 36,071
Knox 11,014 38.94% 16,640 58.83% 233 0.82% 398 1.40% -5,626 -19.89% 28,285
Lake 60,155 49.45% 59,142 48.62% 1,086 0.89% 1,259 1.04% 1,013 0.83% 121,642
Lawrence 11,262 41.12% 15,415 56.28% 282 1.03% 431 1.57% -4,153 -15.16% 27,390
Licking 33,932 41.09% 46,918 56.82% 685 0.83% 1,035 1.25% -12,986 -15.73% 82,570
Logan 7,936 35.61% 13,848 62.15% 208 0.93% 291 1.32% -5,912 -26.54% 22,283
Lorain 85,276 58.07% 59,068 40.22% 1,273 0.87% 1,242 0.85% 26,208 17.85% 146,859
Lucas 142,852 64.80% 73,706 33.43% 1,488 0.67% 2,411 1.10% 69,146 31.37% 220,457
Madison 6,532 37.30% 10,606 60.57% 142 0.81% 230 1.32% -4,074 -23.27% 17,510
Mahoning 79,173 62.02% 45,319 35.50% 1,300 1.02% 1,867 1.46% 33,854 26.52% 127,659
Marion 12,870 44.24% 15,454 53.12% 301 1.03% 367 1.61% -2,584 -8.88% 29,092
Medina 40,924 45.14% 48,189 53.16% 638 0.70% 901 1.00% -7,265 -8.02% 90,652
Meigs 4,094 39.34% 6,015 57.80% 111 1.07% 187 1.80% -1,921 -18.46% 10,407
Mercer 5,853 27.48% 15,100 70.90% 127 0.60% 219 1.03% -9,247 -43.42% 21,299
Miami 18,372 34.72% 33,417 63.15% 426 0.81% 700 1.33% -15,045 -28.43% 52,915
Monroe 3,705 53.07% 3,066 43.91% 116 1.66% 95 1.36% 639 9.16% 6,982
Montgomery 145,997 52.32% 128,679 46.12% 1,734 0.62% 2,621 0.94% 17,318 6.20% 279,031
Morgan 2,966 44.80% 3,440 51.96% 106 1.60% 108 1.63% -474 -7.16% 6,620
Morrow 6,177 37.03% 10,067 60.36% 179 1.07% 256 1.53% -3,890 -23.33% 16,679
Muskingum 17,730 45.20% 20,549 52.39% 364 0.93% 582 1.48% -2,819 -7.19% 39,225
Noble 2,474 39.98% 3,450 55.75% 141 2.28% 123 1.99% -976 -15.77% 6,188
Ottawa 12,064 52.25% 10,624 46.01% 194 0.84% 208 0.90% 1,440 6.24% 23,090
Paulding 4,165 42.57% 5,317 54.34% 127 1.30% 176 1.80% -1,152 -11.77% 9,785
Perry 7,261 47.04% 7,721 50.02% 206 1.33% 249 1.62% -460 -2.98% 15,437
Pickaway 9,077 38.16% 14,228 59.81% 210 0.88% 272 1.14% -5,151 -21.65% 23,787
Pike 6,033 48.24% 6,162 49.27% 143 1.14% 168 1.35% -129 -1.03% 12,506
Portage 41,856 53.39% 34,822 44.41% 664 0.85% 1,060 1.35% 7,034 8.98% 78,402
Preble 6,999 33.25% 13,562 64.43% 227 1.08% 261 1.24% -6,563 -31.18% 21,049
Putnam 5,281 28.27% 13,072 69.98% 163 0.87% 164 0.88% -7,791 -41.71% 18,680
Richland 25,727 42.01% 34,034 55.58% 579 0.95% 899 1.47% -8,307 -13.57% 61,239
Ross 14,455 45.28% 16,759 52.49% 289 0.91% 422 1.33% -2,304 -7.21% 31,925
Sandusky 15,602 51.36% 14,192 46.72% 300 0.99% 283 0.93% 1,410 4.64% 30,377
Scioto 14,926 45.61% 16,994 51.93% 348 1.06% 455 1.39% -2,068 -6.32% 32,723
Seneca 13,087 47.50% 13,823 50.17% 289 1.05% 354 1.29% -736 -2.67% 27,553
Shelby 7,316 30.85% 15,924 67.14% 230 0.97% 248 1.04% -8,608 -36.29% 23,718
Stark 96,990 51.59% 86,743 46.14% 1,784 0.95% 2,493 1.32% 10,247 5.45% 188,010
Summit 160,858 57.73% 113,284 40.66% 1,758 0.63% 2,729 0.98% 47,574 17.07% 278,629
Trumbull 64,145 59.80% 40,164 37.44% 1,285 1.20% 1,677 1.57% 23,981 22.36% 107,271
Tuscarawas 21,498 49.93% 20,454 47.50% 465 1.08% 640 1.48% 1,044 2.43% 43,057
Union 8,761 35.07% 15,744 63.02% 173 0.69% 306 1.22% -6,983 -27.95% 24,984
Van Wert 5,178 35.22% 9,168 62.36% 139 0.95% 216 1.47% -3,990 -27.14% 14,701
Vinton 2,463 43.62% 3,021 53.51% 94 1.66% 68 1.20% -558 -9.89% 5,646
Warren 33,398 31.38% 71,691 67.36% 488 0.46% 849 0.80% -38,293 -35.98% 106,426
Washington 12,368 41.32% 17,019 56.86% 285 0.95% 260 0.86% -4,651 -15.54% 29,932
Wayne 21,712 41.53% 29,342 56.13% 433 0.83% 789 1.51% -7,630 -14.60% 52,276
Williams 8,174 44.43% 9,879 53.70% 153 0.83% 190 1.03% -1,705 -9.27% 18,396
Wood 34,285 52.61% 29,648 45.50% 513 0.79% 718 1.10% 4,637 7.11% 65,164
Wyandot 4,461 40.55% 6,270 56.99% 134 1.22% 137 1.24% -1,809 -16.44% 11,002
Totals 2,940,044 51.38% 2,677,820 46.80% 42,337 0.74% 61,630 1.08% 262,224 4.58% 5,721,831

[23][24]

 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Although Barack Obama won the state, John McCain carried 10 of the state's 18 congressional districts, including three districts that simultaneously elected a Democrat. Obama carried 8 districts, including one district held by a Republican.

District Obama McCain Representative
1st 54.66% 44.30% Steve Chabot (110th Congress)
Steve Driehaus (111th Congress)
2nd 40.02% 58.61% Jean Schmidt
3rd 47.39% 51.14% Mike Turner
4th 38.16% 59.84% Jim Jordan
5th 45.05% 52.95% Paul Gillmor (110th Congress)
Bob Latta (111th Congress)
6th 47.60% 50.30% Charlie Wilson
7th 44.57% 53.80% Dave Hobson (110th Congress)
Steve Austria (111th Congress)
8th 37.87% 60.38% John Boehner
9th 62.26% 36.17% Marcy Kaptur
10th 59.16% 38.98% Dennis Kucinich
11th 84.76% 14.39% Stephanie Tubbs Jones (110th Congress)
Marcia Fudge (111th Congress)
12th 54.15% 44.62% Pat Tiberi
13th 54.15% 44.62% Betty Sutton
14th 49.13% 49.35% Steven LaTourette
15th 53.61% 44.64% Deborah Pryce (110th Congress)
Mary Jo Kilroy (111th Congress)
16th 47.69% 50.32% Ralph Regula (110th Congress)
John Boccieri (111th Congress)
17th 61.84% 36.09% Tim Ryan
18th 44.79% 52.81% Zack Space

Electors

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Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically, the voters of Ohio cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Ohio is allocated 20 electors because it has 18 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 20 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 20 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[25] An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 20 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[26]

  1. Catherine Barrett
  2. Barbara Tuckerman
  3. Wade Kapszukiewicz
  4. Tamela Lee
  5. Renee Cafaro
  6. Victoria Wells Wulsin
  7. Craig Brown
  8. Jimmy Cotner
  9. Janet Carson
  10. Bruce Johnson
  11. Nannette Whaley
  12. Martha Jane Brooks
  13. Eugene Miller
  14. Fran Alberty
  15. Chris Redfern
  16. John Kosty
  17. Kelly Gillis
  18. Charleta Tavares
  19. Michael Todd
  20. Ted Strickland

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  2. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  6. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  7. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  8. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  9. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  10. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  13. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  14. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  15. ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Data Anywhere". Archived from the original on March 14, 2009. Retrieved June 28, 2009.
  16. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Ohio". Retrieved November 28, 2008.
  17. ^ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  18. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 18, 2009.
  19. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  20. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  21. ^ Danny Shea (November 4, 2008). "Fox News Calls Ohio For Obama As Rove Says McCain Needs Ohio To Win". Huffington Post.
  22. ^ "OH US President November 04, 2008". Our Campaigns.
  23. ^ "County Boards of Elections Directory". Archived from the original on November 26, 2008. Retrieved November 28, 2008.
  24. ^ "President / Vice-President : Unofficial Results". Archived from the original on 11 May 2009. Retrieved 28 November 2008.
  25. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  26. ^ U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates
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