Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Humanities/2020 October 28

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October 28

The "Crimean precedent" and realistic future forceful annexations?

per the instructions at the top of the page "We don't answer requests for opinions, predictions or debate." --Jayron32 16:58, 28 October 2020 (UTC)
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
Which future realistic forceful annexations do you think could be based on the "Crimean precedent"? I can think of: The Donbass, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Taiwan, Kokang, northern Kazakhstan, what else? Futurist110 (talk) 01:51, 28 October 2020 (UTC) Viktor Orban's Hungary could conceivably want to annex some of its neighbors' territory, but this just isn't going to happen due to the fact that the other NATO countries will absolutely curb-stomp Hungary if it will ever attempt to do anything like this. Hungary's a pipsqueak! Futurist110 (talk) 01:52, 28 October 2020 (UTC) I don't think Taiwan is a realistic one, at least not in terms of having many parallels to Crimea. Certainly the PRC has laid claim to the island itself, but I think I've seen any indication that the PRC government has any illusions (propaganda or otherwise) that the Han Chinese living in Taiwan desire reunification, certainly not anywhere near the claims made by the Russian Federation that they were acting to enforce the self-determination of the inhabitants. Maybe 50+ years ago when you'd see slogans like "We are determined to liberate Taiwan!" (一定要解放台湾) in Chinese propaganda. 199.66.69.32 (talk) 02:41, 28 October 2020 (UTC) Kosovo by Albania. The only reason Greater Albania has not happened yet is because the countries that have supported Kosovo's independence and made it possible to begin with still oppose the idea. However, if Kosovo makes no progress on getting recognized by the five remaining EU members and could not join the EU under normal circumstance, then Albania might try to annex it once the former gets own EU membership. Also Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia. Going by what they said publicly, the Armenian leadership have been much more open to outright annexation lately and when Russia annexed Crimea, Armenia unsurprisingly supported its actions and was hostile to Ukraine. However, with the way the current war is going, it might already be too late. StellarHalo (talk) 09:24, 28 October 2020 (UTC)

Are there any electoral college bellwethers better than counties?

Like incorporated places or single precincts? No county has been perfect since before the 1950s. Can I find who won each precinct online as soon as they add to the x percent of precincts are reporting percent? Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 01:56, 28 October 2020 (UTC)

Precincts is gonna be difficult because their borders are redrawn all the time. 199.66.69.32 (talk) 02:27, 28 October 2020 (UTC)

The reason why no county has been perfect since before the 1950s is because of the confusing ways the parties have shifted ideologies over time. While any one particular county may have people that may or may not retain a specific ideology over a long period of time (and let's just assume for our discussion that some particular county stays relatively the same political ideology in a broad sense) the parties have NOT necessarily represented those ideologies over that time period. Prior to the mid-20th century, the parties did not differ on a conservative-liberal axis in the way they do today. The party ideologies, as they were, would be unrecognizable on the modern political axis. Prior to the Southern strategy of the Republican party in the late 1960s and the 1980s Reagan Democrats (who became modern Republicans today), the main divide between the parties was between business and labor, and not over social issues. Democratic supported tended to be strongest among working class and Republican support tended to be strongest among the middle class. Things like racial justice, environmentalism, healthcare, etc. that divide the parties today along "conservative" and "liberal" lines were not found at that time. Indeed, one could find (in a modern sense) "liberal" and "conservative" members of both parties in equal measures; it just wasn't how the parties were divided up. This was a time when both Franklin Delano Roosevelt, a progressive northern liberal, and Strom Thurmond, a conservative southerner, could both be members of the Democratic Party, while Nelson Rockefeller, a progressive northern liberal, and Jesse Helms, a conservative southerner, could both be members of the Republican Party. This started to change during the 30-year period of about 1964 (when Barry Goldwater began to push the idea that the Republican Party would be the socially conservative party) through 1994 (when the Newt Gingrich-led Republican Revolution flipped the House of Representatives to the Red side for the first time since the 1930s. There are a LOT of reasons for these transitions, probably too many to go into right now, and it was a long complicated process, and in some ways it isn't completely done (consider there are still liberal Republicans like Susan Collins, Bill Weld, Lisa Murkowski and Mitt Romney and still conservative Democrats like the Blue Dog Coalition and the New Democrats (of which Clinton, Obama, and Biden are clearly part of, if you look at their political positions rather than what their opponents say about them). Anyways, this has probably already rambled on too much, but in summary, the real reason why you aren't likely to find a consistent bellweather county in the U.S. since the 1950s is that the reasons why people vote for certain candidates, and the parties themselves, have evolved SO MUCH since then. --Jayron32 12:57, 28 October 2020 (UTC)

Well Vigo County, Indiana last voted for the electoral college loser in 1952 and is the best whose borders haven't changed much (likely no change) in the meanwhile. Throw a lot more than ~3,000 dice and it's possible to beat Terre Haute County, they just have to like Ike again and not change borders. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 13:28, 28 October 2020 (UTC)

What is the territory of the Spanish Sahara?

[Already asked and answered on the Miscellaneous desk.] --174.95.161.129 (talk) 18:45, 28 October 2020 (UTC)

Byzantine Armenians

My search suggests there were so many Armenians in the Byzantine Empire largely or exclusively because Byzantine Armenia was incorporated into the empire. But that doesn't explain everything to me, because I doubt that all Armenians at the time outnumbered other major ethnic groups in the Byzantine Empire, given that they also included the descendants of ancient Romans and various European tribes. Were there other factors contributing to the greater presence of Armenians there and among Byzantine emperors, perhaps subservience / greater loyalty / sycophancy to the Byzantines? 212.180.235.46 (talk) 17:31, 28 October 2020 (UTC)

Khey Pard on youtube has two interesting map videos: The History of Armenia : Every Year & The History of the Caucasus : Every Year.
Sleigh (talk) 18:02, 28 October 2020 (UTC)

One sidelight on Byzantine Armenians that some find interesting or annoying was that the Byzantine "Macedonian dynasty" was founded by someone probably of ethnic Armenian background whose family lived in what is now European Turkey (see Theme of Macedonia), but in recent decades the Republic of Macedonia was extremely anxious to claim the dynasty as their own(?!)... AnonMoos (talk) 21:29, 29 October 2020 (UTC)