User : Mike Young/Sandbox12
Libya Decision Workshop: Forecasts from session at conference of Wargamers 09/07/2011
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Future politics of Libya: Forecast of what will happen in the next few weeks (before Sept 2011)
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Gaddafi does not leave the country
Gaddafi offers to go into internal exile
Gaddafi goes to goto south of the country / around his home town
Gaddaffi stays in luxurious surroundings rather than in prison
Option of internal exile accepted by the NTC
Gaddafi to have no political power
Fewer demands that Gaddafi go to the Hague
Berbers gain control of Zuwarah
Cease fire declared
Gaddafi loses effective control of Tripoli with minimal fighting
NTC eastern forces do not "capture Tripoli"
Berber forces do not "capture Tripoli"
Power vacuum in Tripolitania immediately after cease fire.
Allies cease to supply the Berbers militarily
Demands by Berbers and Tripoli for more regional autonomy
No ground intervention by UN forces
Demand by Fezzan for more regional autonomy
Some demands met by NTC, but not others
UN peacekeepers deployed in Libya
These peackeepers from Muslim or African Nations
First deployed to Tripoli
Then deployed to Misrata
Misrata distances itself from IRC once under UN control
Oil to be treated as a national rather than regional asset.
Fezzan area remains loyal to Gaddafi
NCT become less Cyrancinia focussed
Powerful Representative from Fezzan Area invited onto NTC
Powerful Representative of Berbers invited onto NTC
Powerful Representative of Tripoli Liberals invited onto NTC
General Abdul Fatah Younis removed from NTC
Jamaal remains in NTC
Jabil remains in NTC
Separate Political Party formed by Tripoli Liberals
Separate Political Party formed by Berbers
Berber and Tripoli Liberal parties form coalition
Berber war hero leads his party
Freedom of press announced by National Transitional Council
NTC attempts to control administration of Tripoli (eg pay teachers, doctors)
NTC becomes de facto government in Tripoli despite some internal opposition
Government based on Islamic Principles remains.
(This is NOT our forecast of the outcome, but rather the "Null case" which the accuracy of our forecasts should be compared to. It assumes nothing happens)
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Gaddafi does not leave the country
Gaddafi does not go into internal exile
If he does go then he is not accepted by the NTC
Demands that Gaddafi goto the Hague for war crimes remain
Berbers do not goin control of Zewarah
No cease fire
Allies continue to provide air support
Allies continue to fly in supply to Berbers
Gaddafi remains in control of Tripoli
No UN peacekeepers deployed in Libya
if deployed not from anywhere in particular
Fezzan area remains loyal to Gaddafi
NCT remains just as Cyrancinia focussed as it is now
Power in NCT remains effectively unchanged
Jamaal remains in NTC
Jabil remains in NTC
No new political parties formed by Tripoli Liberals
No new political parties formed by Berbers
No freedom of press announcement by NTC
NCT does nothing about control of administration of Tripoli
Government based on Islamic Principles remains