Talk:The Keys to the White House

Request for Comment on competing versions of article

Should the article be substantially in the form of Version 1 or Version 2? The most salient difference is how the article should present disputes about the prediction for the 2016 presidential election, but there are several other issues as well. Here is a diff showing the edit by which Version 1 was replaced by Version 2, a change that has since been reverted. JamesMLane t c 20:31, 18 October 2024 (UTC)

• Version 2. The article concerns a system for predicting U.S. presidential elections. The main issue is how to handle the dispute about 2016 -- was the call for Trump correct, because he became president, or incorrect, because he lost the popular vote? Version 1 adopts the latter position in violation of WP:NPOV; it puts that conclusion about one specific election up front, in the third paragraph, before the system has even been presented, in violation of WP:UNDUE; and it impugns the credibility of one of the co-authors of the system ("Lichtman claims"), in violation of WP:BLP. Version 2 notes that there is a dispute and summarizes each side without endorsing either. In the "Reception" section, Version 2 includes a subsection about support, to balance the criticisms, but also does a better job of presenting the criticisms, by breaking them out into subject-matter subsections and giving more information about Lichtman's responses. I'm trying to keep this comment short but I elaborated here. JamesMLane t c 22:46, 18 October 2024 (UTC)

Support Version 2: The Keys to the White House is connected to the Allan Lichtman article, which is a Wikipedia:Biographies of living persons or BLP. Both articles must adhere to strict guidelines that reflect the Wikipedia's commitment to WP:NPOV. Version 1 of this article has a lead that takes a position which is in direct violation of WP:LEAD. Version 2 has a neutral lead and a very clear criticism section that offers multiple perspectives, which is how Wikipedia articles are written. I would suggest that this article move to Version 2.-Classicfilms (talk) 01:59, 19 October 2024 (UTC)

Support Version 1: There is smoking gun evidence provided in the form of Lichtman's October 2016 paper and therefore no ambiguity about his prediction. The language "generically to a Trump win, without mentioning the popular vote" is particularly problematic, as that paper did say the keys call only the popular vote and establish what "win" later refers to in said paper. This is coming from the man himself and is dated after most of his cited media interviews. There is also no ambiguity that Trump lost that election. Therefore it is neutral to present this as fact that they keys called that election wrong. We can recognize that Lichtman disputes this argument and his reasons why, but it should not be elevated to being equivalent when he is on record on Election's eve saying otherwise. Version 2 presents a false balance, in other words.

This is also not to say that improvements on Version 1 could not be made by incorporating ideas from Version 2. In other words, Version 1/2 is a false dichotomy. This could have and should be pursued in the talk on specific changes first instead of jumping to a RfC on such a wide rewrite. Apprentice57 (talk) 23:36, 19 October 2024 (UTC)

You assume without proof that the article you reference was his last word. (1) It was published in a scholarly journal issue dated in October. He gave a newspaper interview in September, and given the relative lead times of each such publication, his interview came later. (2) In this article, The Washington Post reported his making the same prediction in a further interview "first published 11 days before Election Day".

You also incorrectly imply that Lichtman himself is the only one who says he got it right, and that his opinion can therefore be discounted. You ignore the multiple citations in Version 2; in presenting both sides of the dispute, the Version 2 section on the controversy cites The New York Times, The Washington Post, and USA Today as all crediting Lichtman with a correct prediction. If anything, the view you hold, that the prediction was incorrect, is the tiny minority view that doesn't deserve as much credit as Version 2 gives it. Either way, however, that view certainly doesn't deserve to be proclaimed correct, as Version 1 does. JamesMLane t c 01:52, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Lichtman is all over the media constantly, I'm sure he gave a bunch of similar vague "win" predictions close to the election. They do not override the paper, which also is a source of clarification of what "win" really means (popular vote).

Papers are also much more formalized publications where people dot their is and cross their ts. It included the text of the keys verbatim. This should not be ignored.

Finally. also have his reasoning for *why* the keys are a popular vote model: that they are based on national factors and don't treat the swing states explicitly. They cannot, as per his own arguments, be anything other than a popular vote model.

I'm fine with recognizing that other sources gave him credit, so long as this does not impede recognizing the fact that his model called the popular vote. A good example of why this is a false dichotomy. Nevertheless, Version 2 is the worst option of the two as it presents a false balance. Apprentice57 (talk) 12:41, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Support Version 1. I'm sorry I've missed much of this the last week, my own life got very busy. I am strongly in favor of something more like Version 1, as the October 2016 paper, all of his books before the 2016 election, and his own inconsistencies/personal biases now make only his pre-2016 election statements useful. I will have more thoughts in days to come once I dive more into this but want to make a few ones now:

1. This is the most recent article digging into this, it is in The Atlantic and notes the facts concisely:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/allan-lichtman-election-win/680258/
2. This article in The Postrider is incredibly helpful in terms of providing sources, it has exhaustive links and research (there is a dispute as to whether the source may be used, I feel it complies with a news organization's standards having talked with the site's editor in chief, who I asked to make public their internal standards, but that is another argument irrelevant here and I feel strongly it should be used in the criticism section at a minimum in line with the compromise proposed several weeks ago), my point here is the sources are useful: https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/
3. Lichtman's statements recently reek of bad faith: including impuging journalists, threatening to withdraw from interviews when asked about inconsistencies by journalists, CCing an attorney on two journalists, (one of who is a student at his university), encouraging edits to his own Wikipedia pages to remove critical material, and his wife editing the Wikipedia page and invoking two journalists by name as sources of misinformation. This is relevant in the criticism section, but also in the broader view of what is going on here.
4. at the end of the day, unless someone can provide any evidence that Lichtman changed what he was predicting before the November 2016 United States federal election, the case seems closed. He said he only predicted the popular vote. Therefore, absence a communication to the contrary, that's what he predicted, and he was wrong in 2016 (and arguably correct in 2000, but obviously some asterisk belongs there too).

Caraturane (talk) 16:26, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Support Version 1. This page has been through this before. The most recent and most thorough sources already researched this. Can Version 1 be made better? Yes, probably, but that doesn't change the facts and your proposal completely changes the facts. Involved editors who know about the subject matter and edit the page already got to the bottom of these things and litigated these issues.

Having reviewed the wiki policies you are citing, I do not see any serious violations: for LEAD, the point of this article (in fact the only reason it's notable) is it's record. Mentioning the record upfront requires saying it has been right in nine of ten elections. To explain the record without the really notable errors is anything but NPOV. Frankly what @Caraturane raised, that most of the articles that explain his record are opinion pieces is reason enough to be careful. What independent sources there are Lichtman overtly attacks because they point out the factual basis of the reporting. I fail to see how we can really address this without acknowledging the elephant in the room: it sure seems like Lichtman has a lot to gain from making sure that independent sources stop fact checking him, and he and his relatives have engaged in a pattern of wiki policy violations to his own benefit.

Many of us have been editing the page fine for a while and have followed Allan Lichtman for years in an unbiased and passing interest way (reliant on independent sources), it was not until one editor showed up and began obsessively litigating every, single, tiny, issue, that we got to this point. Tomcleontis (talk) 16:05, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

Support Version 1. My history of editing Wikipedia is relatively limited, and as such my view should presumably be accorded less weight than others. My main issue with version 2 is that it obfuscates what Lichtman actually predicted in 2016. It seems highly relevant that he released an academic paper a month before the 2016 election in which he made clear that he was predicting the outcome of the popular vote and not the electoral college yet version 2 doesn't seem to explain this. The article isn't accurately reflecting the facts and is misleading to readers if it doesn't explicitly cover this point.

For anyone who thinks that there is genuine doubt as to what Lichtman predicted in 2016, consider what would have happened if the election had produced the opposite result (i.e. Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college). In these circumstances Lichtman would obviously have argued that his prediction was correct and would have cited his paper in support of this (and he would have been entirely justified in doing so). Anyone who thinks he might have done otherwise is delusional. There is no reason to muddy the waters regarding the 2016 prediction - we know what he predicted, we have a source showing the prediction and the only evidence that we have to the contrary is clearly a self-serving post hoc rationalisation. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2.101.10.150 (talk) 05:32, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Welcome to Wikipedia! You should note that, where there's a controversy, some websites and publications analyze the evidence and reach a conclusion that one side or the other is correct. Wikipedia is different. We are governed by the policy of Wikipedia:Neutral Point of View, under which we are to approach a controversy by making a fair presentation of the evidence and arguments on each side. We don't take a position by saying one side is right and the other is wrong. This is an encyclopedia, not a blog or discussion forum.

In this instance, there's a controversy over whether the 2016 prediction was correct. The key difference between Version 1 and Version 2 is that Version 1 endorses one side of the controversy. Version 2 is neutral by presenting both.

Turning to the journal article you mention, it's certainly a piece of evidence that's pointed to by one side of the controversy. Accordingly, it deserves inclusion. Note how it's treated in Version 2 (actually, in the updated version I posted, to take account of some subsequent edits by others). The "Criticism" section has a whole subsection on the popular vote versus electoral vote controversy. That section reports the criticism that the 2016 prediction ("Trump wins") was wrong because Trump lost the popular vote. It then states, "Lichtman had usually been referring to the popular vote." That sentence is followed by multiple citations, including one to this journal article. I agree with you that the Wikipedia article should be explicit about the criticism, but that seems pretty explicit to me. As I've mentioned, I'm certainly open to improving the wording if anyone thinks the criticism isn't being fairly presented.

The big difference is that, in that very subsection, Version 2 goes on to present Lichtman's response to the criticism, along with noting the independent sources (not just his own statements) that have agreed with him and credited him with a correct prediction. That's the kind of treatment required by the Wikipedia:Neutral Point of View policy. We present both sides and let the readers form their own opinions about the strength of each argument. JamesMLane t c 14:32, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Thank you for providing a detailed response. I don't want to get into a lengthy exchange about this as we would probably just be repeating arguments that you have already had with others. I will just explain that I disagree with the premise that there is an actual controversy here. I think it is extremely clear what Lichtman was predicting prior to the 2016 election. I understand that he made comments in interviews that implied that Trump would win the electoral college, however these comments surely need to be considered within the context of his academic paper, which does after all formally set out his prediction.

The paper makes clear that he is predicting the outcome of the popular vote and not the electoral college and implies that divergence between the popular vote and electoral college is unlikely as it is historically rare. As such the generic comments he made in interviews about Trump winning the election were clearly based on the premise that Trump would win the popular vote and that there wouldn't be a divergence between the popular vote and electoral college. Unless we have some genuinely compelling evidence that Lichtman changed what he was predicting between publishing his paper and the election then I just don't see a controversy.

If version 2 does end up being implemented (which I still do not favour) then I strongly suggest that the following early line be changed as it is both unclear and misleading - "Since the system was published in 1981, it has correctly predicted the winner in all or nearly all the elections from 1984 through 2020" 2.101.10.150 (talk) 19:48, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Would you explain what you think is unclear or misleading about it?

It's not misleading, because some sources credit him with 10/10, while others say 9/10 (with the latter group diverging as to whether he missed 2000 or 2016). That's why "all or nearly all" is accurate.

As for its being unclear, one reason is because it's accurately reporting on an unclear situation. The sources diverge.

Another aspect of lack of full clarity is that this sentence, occurring early on, merely alludes to the existence of divergent opinions, rather than presenting each in detail. The reason is that the sentence occurs early in the article, where it's not appropriate to get into detail. One of the many defects of the version that keeps getting reinstated is that it violates the WP:UNDUE aspect of the NPOV policy. Some editors are so keen to throw rocks at Allan Lichtman and the Keys that this one point of criticism, based on one particular election, is shoehorned into the introductory section, before the reader has even been presented with the actual subject of the article (i.e., the summary of the prediction method). The better version is to mention it in one sentence here and present it in full detail later. That version notes, in the section about the record, that there are unclear cases in 2000 and 2016, the years when the two outcomes diverged. It then gives a full presentation in a dedicated subsection under "Criticism" section -- a subsection that presents both sides of the argument fairly without endorsing either one. JamesMLane t c 00:53, 30 October 2024 (UTC)

It is actually misleading to say he has a perfect record. He does not, if I recall correctly even he has conceded that but premised it on him being wrong in 2000 (it is much more clear that he was incorrect in 2016, based on his own words). No source that has done any looking into it beyond quoting his own words says he has a 10/10 record; independent sources routinely either toss in a line or say it is an "almost" perfect record or explain which ones are in question.

You also make this point while proposing a heavy rewrite of the "Criticism" section that removes this commentary. Caraturane (talk) 03:10, 30 October 2024 (UTC)

My rewrite of the "Criticism" section includes a subsection that presents both sides. It "removes this commentary" if by that you mean the pronouncements, in Wikipedia's voice, that Silver is right and Lichtman is wrong. My rewrite follows policy in presenting both sides without endorsing either.

If you think that the presentation of one side or the other could be improved -- other than by our spoon-feeding the readers with a few editors' opinions stated as fact -- then suggest an appropriate edit. I tried to be fair but I've never said that my wording was carved in stone. The only thing that is non-negotiable is, of course, WP:NPOV, especially in a WP:BLP. JamesMLane t c 03:40, 30 October 2024 (UTC)

Just a reminder, it's getting reinstated on a process rationale (your unilateral edits being reverted because they're unilateral). I'd stop complaining about the reinstatement given the fact pattern, personally speaking.

Just my two cents: "All or nearly all" is accurate in the sense that Lichtman's methods get scored from 8/10 to 10/10 with probably the most common at 9/10. But it's also a statement that qualifies his model positively, and the lower bound of that is already borderline unimpressive. The reason being that most elections are not hard to predict; of the elections in question only really 2000, 2016, and 2020 were extremely close elections that were challenging for even laymen to call. Reduce his record to those three and we're looking at 1-3/3, source depending. And a 1/3 or 2/3 is pretty similar to a coin toss.

The record of Lichtman's model is also the only reason it's as notable as it is. You can see that in the common headlines in articles about the model, they always cite his record in specific. For that reason it makes sense in the introduction. Apprentice57 (talk) 12:50, 30 October 2024 (UTC)

This is a good compromise, and reversion to polite engagement.

I do think Caraturane makes a valid point about the veracity and comprehensiveness of sources on the actual dispute itself matters here, and the point about a plain reading of the timeline. Some folks in the original request for comment on the Postrider source even said that the actual sources used by that source were "damning" and pretty conclusive. Tomcleontis (talk) 14:28, 30 October 2024 (UTC)

"Would you explain what you think is unclear or misleading about it?"

It's unclear because of the wording "all or nearly all". A reader who isn't familiar with the subject would be left wondering what exactly Lichtman's prediction record is after reading this sentence.

It's misleading for two reasons. Firstly it suggests that Lichtman's prediction record may be perfect, which we know isn't the case. Secondly the wording "correctly predicted the winner" implies that Lichtman's predictions have always pertained to the electoral college outcome (the average reader would presumably interpret "the winner" to be the candidate who wins the electoral college). But for a number of elections Lichtman was quite explicitly not predicting the electoral college winner. 2.101.10.150 (talk) 04:18, 1 November 2024 (UTC)

On that line at the end, we did settle on "with a high degree of accuracy" as a compromise on Lichtman's page instead of the line you mentioned at the end. We could adopt that when (hopefully) Version 2 is not adopted. Apprentice57 (talk) 19:54, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Support neither as better.

I definitely agree that Version 1's tone could be improved to better fulfil NPOV requirements. For example, statements like "Lichtman has inconsistently claimed" and "but this claim is not supported by" are unnecessarily pointed, and the lede is unnecessarily focused on criticism & defense of the keys far too early into the article.

I also like Version 2's rework that doesn't concentrate all of Silver's criticisms in one place, but organises them into relevant subject matter headings. On the other hand, Version 2 creates some unfortunate redundancy; "The system's prediction record (1984–present)" section summarises the popular vote vs electoral college prediction dispute, but we then have to get into this subject again under the new "Popular vote versus electoral vote" section. IMO it's more readable to bundle all this track record + PV vs EC content into a single section and just be done with it for the remainder of the article. Neither Version 1 nor Version 2 does this well.

More importantly, Version 2 is actively misleading. For example, Lichtman definitively wrote throughout 2016 (in his book and paper) that the Keys predict only the popular vote—including in years where the popular vote differs from the Electoral College result, as was the case in 2000 and 2016 and is thus of immense relevance. Given that the only possible adjudicant of what Lichtman actually predicted in 2016 is Lichtman's own words (from 2016 & prior), and given that Lichtman repeatedly clarified that the Keys themselves predict only the popular vote (regardless of whether he made a separate electoral college prediction)... the article should be very definitive here. Lichtman predicted that Trump would win the popular vote, and Trump did not win the popular vote.

The problem is... you wouldn't realise this from reading Version 2, at least not without carefully parsing the references & disclaimers!

• The first two instances where Version 1 points out that Lichtman wrote multiple times in 2016 that he was predicting the popular vote are either cut entirely or replaced only with "Lichtman originally described the system as predicting only the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. He has said that, in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College". This makes it sound like the system actually was switched to an only-EC prediction in 2016, which would be objectively incorrect.
• The prediction table now merely contains a pop-out that states that "This is variously counted as a correct or incorrect prediction"; it no longer mentions that Lichtman definitely made a popular vote prediction which was definitely incorrect.
• The new "popular vote versus electoral vote" section similarly frames Lichtman's predictions merely as "usually referring to the popular vote". This is imprecise; Lichtman's writings did not just refer to the popular vote but repeatedly stated that the Keys only predict the popular vote, including in clear enough context (as I noted above) to very definitively resolve PV vs EC discrepancy situations like 2000 & 2016. We can and should emphasise Lichtman's writings that state that he was making a popular vote prediction in 2000 & 2016 to help the reader decide their accuracy for themselves; and because these are Lichtman's own writings, we can absolutely do this without violating NPOV.

James has kindly placed a version of the article in his sandbox and I have made edits to help improve it — including some reorganisation of the "Popular vote versus Electoral vote section", and more clear prose around Lichtman's 2016 prediction (quoting directly from his book). However, I don't necessarily support that version of the article as the better 'template' going forward.

If I had to pick one version over the other, I'd pick Version 1, since I consider content accuracy to be the highest priority for an article. I've worked through some of the Talk history and I can see why the Version 1 proponents are frustrated that facts about Lichtman's record are being handwaved away a bit instead of just stated directly. But I can also see good reason why Version 2 exists and why its proponent is frustrated by the tone that Version 1 strikes. Hangways1 (talk) 05:04, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

You write above that "the article should be very definitive here. Lichtman predicted that Trump would win the popular vote, and Trump did not win the popular vote." I understand that position. It's the same one that the three SPAs are taking -- here's the evidence supporting one side of the dispute, we regard that evidence as conclusive, therefore Wikipedia must inform its readers that there really is no dispute and that our POV is correct.

What I don't understand is that, on the AN/I thread, you wrote this:

I don't think there is any need for the article to take a stance on whether the NYT, WaPo, Brandeis, etc. are correct or not. The article should provide as much of Lichtman's writings & statements as possible about contested predictions, AND it should mention that multiple media outlets and election personalities have variously supported/detracted from Lichtman's record. This way the reader can decide for themselves (a) what Lichtman's prediction was, and (b) whether the support/critique is reasonable.

So you're saying that the article "should be very definitive here" but should also let the readers decide for themselves? This is an important distinction because the SPAs' insistence on making the article definitive is precisely what makes it a violation of WP:NPOV. JamesMLane t c 13:54, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

The point was that we don't need to articulate uncertainty about whether Lichtman's system was predicting the popular vote or not in 2000 & 2016. We have repeated, clear statements from Lichtman that the keys do only predict the popular vote—including a passage from his book that even reaffirms this in cases of split Popular Vote / Electoral College.

This isn't the kind of claim to which NPOV applies. Providing Lichtman's own quotes that the keys predict the popular vote isn't unfair to him, or stating an opinion as fact, or inherently judgemental. You'd be literally just conveying the fact (according to Lichtman himself at the time) that the keys predicted the popular vote.

I'm sure we can agree that quoting what Lichtman wrote about his keys doesn't intrinsically violate NPOV. It just so happens that what Lichtman wrote about his keys was that they only predict the popular vote. The article shouldn't be vague about this. Hangways1 (talk) 14:27, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

I agree with Hangways1 here. I am open to working off of JamesMLane's sandbox draft: my goal is actually to condense some material, but I will ask for some time as the US elections are this week. Caraturane (talk) 14:32, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

I've never tried to censor the argument that Lichtman was wrong in 2016. I'm willing to convey the facts about what he said. My version does so, and we can certainly discuss how best to present that side of the argument (along with discussing how best to present the other side of the argument).

Where I disagree with you is your statement, "The point was that we don't need to articulate uncertainty about whether Lichtman's system was predicting the popular vote or not in 2000 & 2016." Yes, there is uncertainty. Lichtman has said that he switched in 2016. You think the stronger evidence supports the view that he's a liar? Fine, you're entitled to your opinion, but the article can't endorse that opinion.

As to the specifics of how we present it, we want to be fair to both sides, but we also have to exercise some editorial judgment. We don't generally scour the internet and quote everything that's verifiable. The standard is a fair presentation of each side. To take one obvious example, the current version quotes the nonnotable Postrider bloggers as if they were experts. That's purely promotional and doesn't improve the reader's understanding of the issues. To the extent that the bloggers said anything worthwhile, the substance of their comment would be picked up elsewhere. JamesMLane t c 15:41, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

We all agree some work can be done but when using Lichtman's own words I don't think we should beat around the bush.

The Postrider journalists are frequently cited as the most prominent investigators into Lichtman's record... are we really going to get into an issue this niche? We all gave it a rest regarding citing the site itself (something many of us felt was is useful given their role in all of this) but I understand on waiting for the publication of editorial standards (again, this is something I asked for directly of their editor). But it should be beyond dispute that they're notable for their criticism of Lichtman at this point, especially given how frequently they're quoted or cited on this dispute (or, honestly, how often Lichtman talks about them). Caraturane (talk) 15:46, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

LOL, no, a few media mentions don't make someone notable. You want to call them "journalists"? How about I won't carp about your calling them "journalists" if you won't carp about me calling them "bloggers"?

Anyway, most journalists aren't notable. We often quote what a nonnotable journalist writes because the material appears in a reliable source -- which Postrider isn't.

You write, "We all gave it a rest regarding citing the site itself (something many of us felt was is useful given their role in all of this) but I understand on waiting for the publication of editorial standards...." That "gave it a rest" phrase is, well, not how I would describe it. What happened was that I pointed out the clear violation of Wikipedia policy, specifically WP:SPS. You did not respond by giving it a rest. You three SPAs fought to include and promote the Postrider. You, personally, responded to the citation of Wikipedia policy by writing, "It's crucial to realize that Wikipedia benefits from diverse types of sources...." In other words, your personal opinion was that Wikipedia policy was wrong, therefore you wouldn't follow it. The only way the situation got corrected was through a huge waste of time (mainly my time) in doing a whole Noticeboard thread.

And on that thread, you still didn't give it a rest. You and your allies continued to fight to include this SPS. And even now you're trying to lay the groundwork to resume promoting Postrider, based on some hypothetical "publication of editorial standards". In my opinion, there is nothing these bloggers could tell you about their lofty "editorial standards" that would contradict the unanimous conclusion of the experienced editors who participated in the Noticeboard thread. Of course, you're always free to start a new Noticeboard thread, seeking to reverse the earlier decision. Tip: If you do that, you should notify everyone who participated in the original thread. JamesMLane t c 02:03, 6 November 2024 (UTC)

James, if you're complaining about the process we've gone through lets be clear here: us "allies" just happen to be random people with subject knowledge on the keys that agree with something on the merits. We're not an alliance working together to bludgeon the process or not letting things go.

Now, oppose the re-inclusion of a quote from the postrider on the merits, that's still fine. But the admin notice you posted had only one admin weigh in who wanted us to try to work this out. Are you going to continue to inflame discussions with the "LOL, no", calling us "SPA"s, continuing to promote your perspective as simply informing us rather than promoting a debatable argument? It's not helping anything. Apprentice57 (talk) 16:07, 6 November 2024 (UTC)

The Postrider authors are genuinely like the most quoted people in pretty much all of the Lichtman criticism... they're constantly quoted, and every source refers to them as "journalists" (they are also both, actual journalists, didn't we already go through that?). I would use them and keep them on the page.

At the time I proposed a compromise of using the Postrider source in criticism section but removing the link because of the reliable source issue (something Caraturane also volunteered to look into and did, but I understand we're waiting on them), I thought that was a good faith compromise but then you just went and deleted it everywhere. Fine, I disagree, but I get the argument for it (I just think it was obviously relevant in the criticism section as it is cited in like every Lichtman criticism I can find). But it is beyond doubt that Emerson and Lovito are relevant on this page as critics/journalists/commentators on Lichtman. They are literally the most cited critics/source on his record! Tomcleontis (talk) 23:05, 6 November 2024 (UTC)

"Yes, there is uncertainty. Lichtman has said that he switched in 2016. You think the stronger evidence supports the view that he's a liar? Fine, you're entitled to your opinion, but the article can't endorse that opinion."

Well, let's try and build some consensus on an improvement, then.

Lichtman definitively stated multiple times in 2016 (in his book and in his paper) that the keys "only predict the national popular vote". He also wrote that the keys predicted the popular vote in three years where it split from the Electoral College.

You're clearly okay with including clear summaries of Lichtman's post-2016 statements about his 2016 prediction — e.g. the one you just mentioned about his claim that he switched before the election.

So are you equally okay with including clear summaries of Lichtman's during-2016 statements about his 2016 prediction?

I ask because your Version 2 doesn't make those statements of Lichtman's very clear. You use phrasings like "Lichtman originally described the system as predicting only the popular vote" (but decline to note that he continued to support that design even in 2016), or "Lichtman had usually been referring to the popular vote" (which does not express that Lichtman often simultaneously stated that the keys only predict the popular vote; an important distinction!).

If we're all agreed that the body of evidence shows that Lichtman wrote on multiple occasions in 2016 that his keys only predict the popular vote, then are you okay with a sentence like "Lichtman wrote on multiple occasions in 2016 that his keys only predict the popular vote." ?

This seems to me completely NPOV, since it's a factual description of what he wrote and can be directly quoted. I strongly suspect that if your version was as willing to express forthrightly what Lichtman wrote during 2016 as what he wrote after 2016, a lot of this dispute would be resolved. Right now, Version 2 seems to tiptoe around ever stating directly that Lichtman repeatedly clarified in 2016 that the keys predict only the popular vote — which is probably the most relevant possible fact we can make clear to the reader! Hangways1 (talk) 16:05, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Hangways1, you've said that "we don't need to articulate uncertainty about whether Lichtman's system was predicting the popular vote or not in 2000 & 2016." That's consistent with the SPAs' reiterated view that there is no dispute. That's always been the sticking point. They revert any change that acknowledges uncertainty.

I'm open to discussion about how we present each side (subject to considerations of fairness and length), but the starting point must be a recognition that there are two sides. Every experienced editor who's weighed in has agreed with that point, and has considered my version more neutral, but we can't make any progress toward neutrality in the face of the SPAs' insistence on their position that there is no dispute. JamesMLane t c 16:27, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Thanks, James, so let's have that discussion!

There are multiple sources from Lichtman in 2016 that state that the keys only predict the popular vote. Your version doesn't make that clear — are you amenable with sentences such as "Lichtman wrote on multiple occasions in 2016 that his keys only predict the popular vote." being included to help show the facts of the matter? Hangways1 (talk) 20:58, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

I had hoped that we would hear from several experienced, uninvolved Wikipedia editors. Every such person who's responded has favored the substantial rewrite. In this case, "every" is just one (and I'm glad that Classicfilms agreed with the change). In addition, LittleJerry, without joining the RfC, agreed with the major point of the rewrite, namely removing the POV.

We obviously won't get any more comments on the RfC, so I'm making the change on the basis of what we have. The article can't be permitted to persist indefinitely in a form in which every experienced editor sees it as violating a core Wikipedia policy. JamesMLane t c 20:07, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

I'm responding to the notification that I received re: this discussion. I stand by all of the points that I made above, as this article appears to fall under WP:BLP. You might consider getting the viewpoint of an admin re: WP:CONADMIN.-Classicfilms (talk) 16:54, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

The standard for this page is less than the standard for the Lichtman page. The 13 Keys are an academically-published and -reviewed system with plenty of books and commentary. A strict BLP application to the entire page seems unwarranted. Caraturane (talk) 16:59, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Thank you for sharing your personal opinion. The relevant Wikipedia policy at WP:BLP states:

Editors must take particular care when adding information about living persons to any Wikipedia page, including but not limited to articles, talk pages, project pages, and drafts. [emphasis in original]

In this thread, Classicfilms and I have cited BLP. In the Noticeboard thread about Postrider, ActivelyDisinterested agreed, stating that BLP applies to the Keys article. Thus, there's a consensus of three editors with a combined total of more than 40 years editing Wikipedia; that doesn't prove that we're infallible, but you might give some weight to our collective understanding of an important Wikipedia policy.

The wisdom of applying BLP even to non-bio articles is evident right here. The current version of the article repeatedly attacks Lichtman's credibility. In taking one side of the controversy, the current version states that Lichtman "claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,[43] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers...." There are several other such statements scattered throughout. Accusing a living person of making a false statement is precisely the kind of thing that raises BLP concerns. JamesMLane t c 17:49, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

For the record, Lichtman is not being accused of making false statements. He has reportedly, on multiple occasions, made false statements. Let's not lose the forest for the trees here. Caraturane (talk) 17:51, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Thank you for making the NPOV and BLP violation so explicit. JamesMLane t c 17:58, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

This is relying on several independent sources that have been cited throughout this process. When a statement is demonstrably inaccurate, Wikipedia says so. You are missing the forest for the trees.

https://www.imediaethics.org/did-professor-allan-lichtman-correctly-predict-the-winner-of-the-2016-presidential-election-his-own-book-says-no/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/allan-lichtman-election-win/680258/

https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xnNIAhs3xk&ab_channel=80%2C000Hours ("lied in the past about whether he was trying to predict the Electoral College or popular vote")

Caraturane (talk) 18:01, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

There are also multiple independent sources stating that his prediction was correct. In such circumstances, Wikipedia does not state "This side of the controversy is right and the other side of the controversy is demonstrably inaccurate."

This is the problem with trying to find a compromise here. We could tinker with the wording but there are a few editors who insist that the article take a position in that manner. Any such outcome would violate Wikipedia policy. JamesMLane t c 18:19, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

For one, we should rely on more modern and comprehensive sources than out-of-date sources that may have just added a single line about it. All of these sources are much more thorough, whereas others are just referring to his system at large.

Hence why the statement as is "Using the system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the popular vote outcome of each presidential election from 1984 to 2012. Though Lichtman claims that he correctly called the 2016 election by using the system, his 2016 book and paper stated that the Keys to the White House were designed to predict the outcome of the popular vote, which Donald Trump lost." is correct -- it notes Lichtman's claim and why many report it is inaccurate.'

It barely matters. At the end of the day we are arguing over something that is just really clear on the face:

1. Lichtman said his system predicts only the popular vote
2. Lichtman says his system predicts a Trump victory
3. Lichtman publishes a book and paper (before and after his official prediction) which both say they only predict the popular vote.
4. Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote
5. There is no record, ever, anywhere, of him ever saying his system changed before the election. Yet there are plenty of instances where he said it only predicts the popular vote.

A media ethics watchdog called him out for being dishonest about this even before the October 2016 paper the Postrider found came to light. How is this not cut and dry? Caraturane (talk) 18:25, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

You write that "we should rely on more modern and comprehensive sources...." That's the problem right there. You're enunciating an approach for adjudicating the controversy. You want to compare all the different sources, decide which ones are more credible, and, in reliance on those sources, proclaim a conclusion. But that's precisely what WP:NPOV bars. JamesMLane t c 18:55, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

I actually don't think NPOV bars considering independent sources that are more thorough and related to the dispute at hand as more useful than those that just mention it off hand. Nonetheless, it ignores the plain text of Lichtman's own words like I noted before, which are fair game.

I am suggesting that the way the page reads as is is suitable because it states Lichtman's claim and the refutation by independent sources. If you would like to litigate precisely why Lichtman's claim is false, we can get into that and just exclude it, because there's really no question that he missed the 2000 election and/or the 2016 election. Caraturane (talk) 18:58, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

What WP:NPOV bars is any such "considering" and weighing of sources. So, no, I don't want "to litigate precisely why Lichtman's claim is false...." We don't need to set ourselves up as the judges who will assess the evidence and tell the readers what to think.

On this Talk page we reach this point over and over. I keep seeing posts explaining why an editor thinks one particular point of view is better supported than the other -- and, crucially, that the editor therefore thinks Wikipedia should endorse one side of the controversy. I keep citing the policy against such editing. JamesMLane t c 00:59, 30 October 2024 (UTC)

This isn't a weighing, this is a using a source that is more comprehensive as to the actual dispute than one that is not. I don't think it is deniable that these three sources are explicitly about the 2000 and 2016 controversy and are thorough:

https://www.imediaethics.org/did-professor-allan-lichtman-correctly-predict-the-winner-of-the-2016-presidential-election-his-own-book-says-no/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/allan-lichtman-election-win/680258/

https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/

Other sources which you seem to want to rely on do not talk about the record in depth and just talk about his current prediction, that's not good enough to actually resolve a controversy. We prefer precise and comprehensive independent reviews to ones that are generic and empty.

Almost everyone with a deep knowledge of this subject matter has been unified here, it is your badgering on these issues and Lichtman's own bad faith acting in terms of telling people to remove critical material from Wikipedia and disparaging journalists (like those in The Atlantic and The Postrider, and also the media ethics group apparently) who note these inconsistencies; that is what continues to churn the controversy. We bring you strong, independent sources, you insist controversy remains. We quote what is in these sources, which is unequivocal, and you insist controversy remains.

Until someone can find any place where Lichtman said he was no longer predicting the popular vote in 2016 before that election occurred, I am going to choose to trust a Media Ethics Organization, Nate Silver, The Postrider, and The Atlantic, over Lichtman's statements. He has an obvious interest, one for which he has been accused of "lying" about his record (by Nate Silver), and the reporting is undeniable. Caraturane (talk) 03:18, 30 October 2024 (UTC)

I'm sorry but no? The outright majority of editors said no. Tomcleontis (talk) 20:09, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

That is not how Wikipedia works. The "majority" is three editors with few or no edits before they decided to engage in heavy WP:NPOV violations about Allan Lichtman. At every step, every experienced editor has disagreed. Wikipedia is not going to be captive to your opinions, in violation of policy. JamesMLane t c 20:59, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

Please take a step back and try to build some consensus. Your acts continue to be unilateral and accusing us of NPOV despite now several independent sources all reporting this (by the way, here's another), is completely inappropriate and assumes bad faith by all of us who have subject matter expertise on this. Tomcleontis (talk) 21:02, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

I have tried multiple times to explain Wikipedia policy to you. There's a controversy about Lichtman's record. You now say, in effect, "Here's a source that supports one side of that controversy, therefore Wikipedia should assert that that side is correct." On some sites, that might be a good argument. On Wikipedia, it violates WP:NPOV. The revision I made, which you snap-reverted, presents both sides of the controversy without asserting that either is correct. That's how NPOV works. JamesMLane t c 01:31, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

James, please. The assertion "Though Lichtman claims that he correctly called the 2016 election by using the system, his 2016 book and paper stated that the Keys to the White House were designed to predict the outcome of the popular vote, which Donald Trump lost." is not controversial, it is true. Adding a comment by Chris Cillizza is actually funny but pretty much irrelevant. Removing essentially all of the reported critics is definitely not supported.

You have suggested some valid updates, like noting Lichtman doesn't feel his Keys are subjective or removing some more opinionated language, or dealing with over-stuffed parts about Nate Silver, for sure, and we can work on implementing those (and I have just done so in some places where there seems not to be dispute, will work on more because you just keep coming back to this despite repeated attempts to take a breather) but that is wholy different than a complete rewrite of every area you (and Lichtman) disagree with, despite either: controversy or consensus.

Time and time again your edits have served almost exclusively to inflate Lichtman's record, remove critical material, or provide favorable commentary. This is not NPOV. Caraturane (talk) 01:47, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

As per the wikipedia page on RfCs:

"All editors (including IP users) are welcome to respond to any RfC."

There is no distinction made between historical editors of the page and uninvolved editors. And of everyone who responded we're at best evenly split if you include the good faith IP editor below (actually majority in support of version 1 in terms of literal RfC responses). LittleJerry only supported removing one paragraph and wrote on my page that they explicitly decline to join the talk page here. Also even in the alternative, 4 users in support of a change (or 3 or 2) and 3 in opposition is not at all consensus.

What I suggest we do is wait the full general time for RfCs, 1 month, as I do not see any reason to end it early (and reason to continue it, in case someone like LittleJerry wants to weigh in). And if there's still no consensus then we find a good faith compromise.

To that effect, I have already given substantive pushback on the specific changes you have made in the previous thread above. I (and I suspect the others in support of version 1) am not married to how Version 1 is constructed now and it assuredly could be improved. I would like to note that you didn't respond to that pushback at all.

I will remind everyone of what the RfC page also says:

"Avoid making edits that others may view as unhelpful. Editing after others have raised objections may be viewed as disruptive editing or edit warring. Be patient; make your improvements in accord with consensus after the RfC is resolved." Apprentice57 (talk) 00:36, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Your understanding of "consensus" appears to be as follows: Three of you are bound and determined to have the article take a position on the question of the 2016 prediction. As long as the three of you continue to hold that view, there is no consensus, and therefore the article must be in the form you prefer.

Do I have that right?

You should also take note of this passage from WP:NPOV:

This policy is non-negotiable, and the principles upon which it is based cannot be superseded by other policies or guidelines, nor by editor consensus.

So, no, it is not Wikipedia policy that NPOV violations may remain in place as long as any editor wants them to remain in place. JamesMLane t c 01:46, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

There are not widespread NPOV "violations", at least not the degree you feel, and I think it is safe saying we could resolve them individually here like we did on the Allan Lichtman page.

To restate what I just said up there: time and time again your unilateral edits have served almost exclusively to inflate Lichtman's record, remove critical material, or provide favorable commentary. This is not NPOV. Caraturane (talk) 01:50, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

NPOV doesn't mean that every edit must be neutral. It means that the article must be neutral. My version doesn't remove properly sourced criticisms of Lichtman (note the multiple subsections devoted to Silver's criticisms, which are actually presented more effectively in my version). If you think one side of the controversy should be presented differently, you could suggest an improvement.

The problem is that you think one side of the controversy should be presented as being correct. The "critical material" that I've removed consists of passages that would assert a position in Wikipedia's voice. JamesMLane t c 02:35, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

James, you were making a pretty comprehensive revision of the article. You yourself termed it "version 2" versus the current "version 1". So when Caraturane is criticizing your edit, they were criticizing your overall vision of the article. Apprentice57 (talk) 02:46, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

We all recognize that NPOV is mandatory. But we do not agree (have a consensus) on whether this page violates NPOV. We have reasons on the merits as to why we believe so, as do you. You will not find an argument to the opposite so you're arguing against a strawman.

Listen to the advice from the RfC, be patient and wait. If nothing else, RfCs typically last 30 days. Apprentice57 (talk) 01:57, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

I note that you do not dispute my paraphrase of your position. "Consensus" means you get your way unless and until you change your mind.

There's no point in waiting 30 days when (1) it's highly unlikely that anyone else will respond to the RfC, and (2) even if they did, you three would adhere to your position, therefore you would say there was no consensus, therefore the article must remain permanently in the form you like. JamesMLane t c 02:38, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

James, you yourself were skipping points I made in our past arguments that you didn't believe had merit. No, me ignoring something I view as similarly preposterous (also borrowing that phrase) is not conceding the point.

There was literally someone making an edit on POV that I asked to contribute to this talk discussion the other day, so claiming nothing could change is pretty baseless.

Yes, if we don't have more people weigh in on the RfC we'll have to find a compromise. Or do you want this to turn into an edit war? Apprentice57 (talk) 02:45, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Case in point, a new reply to the RfC was just added. Apprentice57 (talk) 08:36, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Lichtmann's rebuttal video and the popular vote statement

In Lichtmann's rebuttal video dated 17/10/24, he argues that a statement in his 2016 paper has been taken out of context and misunderstood as him claiming that the model predicts the popular vote rather than the electoral college tally. He claims that media articles have promoted this misunderstanding.

That statement from 2016 reads as follows: "As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes. However, only once in the last 125 years has the electoral college vote diverged from the popular vote."

He claims that he was simply making the point that the model in no way looks at individual states. To be fair to him, this is a distinction between the 13 Keys model and polling that he seems to be in the habit of making in media interviews, often said in a similar fashion but with more clarity. Can we once and for all discuss whether this statement clearly merits him stating that his model only predicts the popular vote and put this to bed.

For my two cents it seems he should have no idea whether the model predicts the popular vote or electoral college since the split never occurred in his dataset-- the only thing he can logically derive from his dataset is that his model should predict election winners. This is a comment speculating on his thought process and not my own judgement.2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 01:08, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Having re-read the statement, I'm conflicted due to the fact he starts the sentence with "As a national system" as well as using the otherwise defunct adjective "state-by-state". He could be saying: "The model predicts the popular vote (not exclusively) and does not conduct a state-by-state tally of the electoral college"

It is then confusing as to why he feels the need to say the electoral college rarely diverges from the popular vote as if he's arguing in favour of the value of his model in the face of a potential liability.

Perhaps I'm tying myself in knots, I'll let people tell me but a big part of why I'm raising this is his media interviews. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 01:23, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

I believe you are referring to this video clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Af3hKnrexs.

The job of the Wikipedia is to summarize key points, not to take sides re: WP:RS. If there is a point of controversy, then an article lists the various arguments in a controversy section. This video raises concerns about two areas: WP:UNDUE or undue weight and Wikipedia:Cherrypicking - both areas that should be avoided in WP:BLP. The subject article is not my area of expertise, I work on various WP:BLP (biography of living persons articles), so perhaps other editors who are familiar with the subject can weigh in.-Classicfilms (talk) 01:45, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Great thank you but surely Wikipedia must consider some things objective fact? I only say this because it is Apprentice57's argument in the RfC. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 01:51, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Apologies, I'm not sure I understand your question entirely, feel free to rephrase it if you like- The Wikipedia is generally guided by WP:NPOV, which means looking at the wide scope of a topic- that is why I raised WP:UNDUE and Wikipedia:Cherrypicking. The goal is to avoid WP:OR, or original research, which can happen if a series of facts are strung together. I'm not saying that is happening here, I'm trying to respond to your overall questions. -Classicfilms (talk) 02:05, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

You ask a good question, and over the years Wikipedia has developed its answer. As Classicfilms said, the policy is set out in Wikipedia:Neutral point of view. Wikipedia generally does not take sides, but fringe viewpoints need not be given equal attention. One example given is that "the article on the Earth does not directly mention modern support for the flat Earth concept, the view of a distinct (and minuscule) minority; to do so would give undue weight to it." In that sense, the spherical Earth is treated as an objective fact.

That doesn't mean, however, that, for every dispute, Wikipedia editors consider the evidence, decide which opinion is correct, and present it as fact. Actually, the flat-Earth case is the exception. The general rule from WP:NPOV is:

Avoid stating seriously contested assertions as facts. If different reliable sources make conflicting assertions about a matter, treat these assertions as opinions rather than facts, and do not present them as direct statements.

Here, there are seriously contested assertions about the 2016 prediction. Apprentice57's argument in the RfC is that one side is correct and should therefore be presented as a direct statement. (Version 1 flatly asserts: "Lichtman's model incorrectly predicted the popular vote outcome.") That would violate the NPOV policy. JamesMLane t c 02:19, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Okay thank you both for clarifying and doing so accessibly. Should this specific controversy on the language and intended meaning of the statement be included in the article? It appears to be the main source of this dispute and the central premise behind several cited articles that have fuelled it. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 02:51, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

In my opinion, yes, this controversy is notable and should be included in the article. Version 2 presents both sides without adopting either. JamesMLane t c 03:05, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Yes, agree with JamesMLane on all points above. You might want to also look at this article, WP:NOT or "What the Wikipedia is Not," which may further clarify your questions. -Classicfilms (talk) 03:20, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Remember, the reason why the October 2016 paper is so crucial, and a smoking gun as to the fact it's a popular vote model here: there was no dispute! Lichtman, and his critics (like Nate Silver) all agreed it was a popular vote mode. That is why the dispute is a based on lichtman taking a fringe position.

That it has come under dispute post facto is irrelevant to a prediction. Predictions are all about what is said and claimed beforehand, not after. And Lichtman would have a motive in being dishonest here, as it buoys his reputation to be correct. Apprentice57 (talk) 12:48, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

The only neutral point of view is what Lichtman said about his predictions before November 2016. Those statements where he said what his system predicted and what he predicted are very clear and they directly note that he was only predicting the popular vote and say it was not predicting the Electoral College. This is a neutral POV. Caraturane (talk) 17:03, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

It is an objective fact that Lichtman said his system only predicts the popular vote. There are years and years of him saying so. Tomcleontis (talk) 16:07, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

This isn't necessarily of importance to the RfC/his article, but I think reading one of his older intro chapters in his book (which he republishes every 4 years roughly) is helpful. I did so with his 1990 book on the internet archive (importantly, old enough to be before 2000), my conclusion is that he recognizes the keys are a popular vote model (it states so explicitly more than once), but that was seen as sufficient to also predict the winner: https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1dc7wiy/allan_lichtmans_the_thirteen_keys_were_incorrect/ Despite the age of the 1990 book, the text of the keys has not changed.

His October 2016 paper is of importance because it establishes that there was no dispute to the keys predicting the popular vote on election's eve, it repeats most of the language from his books but shorter owing to the format. Apprentice57 (talk) 12:54, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Thanks for this but I must say that these statements are never exclusive and it does seem possible he's making the point that the keys are a national system rather than working state-by-state. I certainly held your view once and I get it but this could a case of miscommunication and clumsy language. I think this is supported by it being simply not rational for him to make this distinction, there's no basis for it in his dataset and these statements as you and almost everyone have read them don't make sense. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 14:55, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Strong disagree! But I appreciate the polite pushback. Apprentice57 (talk) 00:05, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

The split occurred in his dataset in 2000. He took credit for 2000 (like in this New York Times video) by saying he only predicted the popular vote. Caraturane (talk) 16:28, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

He was of the opinion that Al Gore won in 2000, you can see his submission to the federal commission cited in this article, it's also something he has restated a multitude of times in his YT videos and livestreams. It was the NYT narrator that told us about the 'split' not Lichtmann. All Lichtmann said was that he correctly predicted the popular vote which he did. Up until 2000, his model had correctly predicted the popular vote and electoral college. Because of his opinion on the 2000 election, in his view, he had also correctly predicted the electoral college.

We have to remain mindful of the context in which he made these statements-- to his beliefs, the popular vote had still not diverged from the electoral college until 2016. Given that, I don't think it's right to represent him as a liar because of this. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 16:41, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

No one is representing him as a liar (though it's not for nothing he has been caught being inconsistent and not telling the truth about some things like saying he switched to only predicting the winner after 2000, this is provably not true). It's notable that even in 2012 he used the same "the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes" line and even put in plain English in 2008 that a Keys “Win indicates the popular vote outcome for the party in power.”

This article is helpful to provide sources, I have been using it as a reference to find links that explain.

Caraturane (talk) 17:01, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Thank you, the 2008 paper is far clearer although his subsequent assertion that the point he makes in that statement is to distinguish between his model and polling calls into question if not this interpretation then the way we treat the statements in my view. It still raises the confounding question of why he would decide that his model only predicts the popular vote, this categorically cannot be derived from his dataset of elections from 1860-1980 that formulated the model (later elections constitute an application of the model). Again his use of the adjective "state-by-state" in most of these statements potentially supports this.

I think to take the position we're currently taking in light of WP:NPOV, we need undeniable proof that his system does not predict the electoral college. The fact that he often links his model to the popular vote may not be exclusive. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 17:21, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

The statement "the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes" is a direct assertion it does not predict the electoral college. He also wrote many times after 2016 that he made a change to his system to make it now just predict the Electoral college (though there is not documentation of this change before November 2016, only after the call was made "wrongly" in 2016, for example see this NPR article ). Caraturane (talk) 17:25, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

With all due respect, this NPR article does not evidence a 'revision'. You're of the view that the statement I highlighted in the original post is incontrovertible evidence of Lichtmann saying that the model does not predict the electoral college, I'm arguing that we should be less concrete in our interpretation. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 17:33, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

He uses the word "not," I don't know how much clearer that could be.

And sorry, I should have been more clear: I was using the NPR article as an example of him not mentioning he changed the system. He has written he has many times after the 2016 election, for example: after saying in 2016 multiple times he only predicted the popular vote, Lichtman wrote in a post for the Harvard Data Science Review in 2020 which said:

"In 2016, I made the first modification of the Keys system since its inception in 1981. I did not change any of the keys themselves or the decision-rule that any six or more negative keys predicts the defeat of the party holding the White House. However, I have switched from predicting the popular vote winner to the Electoral College winner because of a major divergence in recent years between the two vote tallies."

Caraturane (talk) 17:36, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

I understand but you must see my point in the original post and first comment-- I'm not arguing that this is a reasonable interpretation for most readers, only that there's a good chance that it reflects reality.

The language he uses in his prediction proclaimations is part of his Keys system. He may have been under the belief prior to 2016 that the popular vote and electoral college was extremely unlikely to split due to the reasoning I set out above and subsequently fixed his language to be more precise. He explicitly says that he had not revised the keys themselves. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 17:46, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

At least a good enough chance to invoke WP:NPOV. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 17:47, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

I strongly disagree. This would take an extraordinary leap in usage of language. He said over, and over, and over, that he did not predict the Electoral College, that he only predicted the popular vote, and even referenced past elections prior to his life to show the keys only predict the popular vote (he wrote in 2004, for example: "As a nationally-based system the Keys cannot diagnose the results in individual states and thus are more attuned to the popular vote than the Electoral College results. The 2000 election, however, was the first time since 1888 that the popular vote verdict diverged from the Electoral College results. And the Keys still got the popular vote right in 2000, just as they did in 1888 when Democrat Grover Cleveland won the national tally but lost in the Electoral College to Republican Benjamin Harrison and in 1876 when Democrat Samuel Tilden won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes.").

The word "not" means they do not. If this is really what the matter of dispute comes down to then I think we have a very clear cut and dried result. Caraturane (talk) 17:49, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

But he's still making that statement potentially with the subtext that his model is a 'national system' rather than 'state-by-state'-- isn't it strange that in every statement we're considering, he uses this same language that would otherwise be irrelevant to the point you (and to be fair the vast majority of people) interpret him as making?

I'm not contesting the meaning of the word 'not' but the two clauses that come before it and the subtext of the statements. I sympathise with your viewpoint but I think it's best for other editors to weigh in, it seems we've made our arguments as best we can. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 18:04, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Is this really how far we've come? "Not" means not. This cannot seriously be the argument, right? Tomcleontis (talk) 16:06, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

No it's absolutely not the argument I'm making and I've just explicitly stated that in the comment you're replying to. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:C0EE:D9DA:EB5C:31AC (talk) 16:12, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

Until someone can identify any area where Lichtman said he was changing what the keys predicted before the 2016 election, I believe this is a circular argument. There is only evidence that he switched to predicting the Electoral College for 2020 and now 2024, everything before November 8, 2016 cleanly puts that the keys predict the popular vote. Caraturane (talk) 17:17, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

I don't disagree that it is a valid viewpoint and the one that's most reasonable but it is an interpretation of the facts. I've suggested that we present the core facts themselves.

I will actually step back from this page now, I recognise this is frustrating for longtime editors. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:C0EE:D9DA:EB5C:31AC (talk) 17:56, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

I concur that Lichtman's words through 2016 unambiguously point to him predicting only the popular vote.

For example, see this similar section from his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016":

""The keys to the White House focus on national concerns such as economic performance, policy initiatives, social unrest, presidential scandal, and successes and failures in foreign affairs. Thus, they predict only the national popular vote and not the vote within individual states. Indeed, no system could have predicted the 537 vote margin for George W. Bush in Florida that decided the 2000 election.

In three elections since 1860, where the popular vote diverged from the electoral college tally—1876 (when Democrat Samuel J. Tilden won the popular vote, but lost in the electoral college to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes), 1888, and 2000—the keys accurately predicted the popular vote winner. Based on the historical odds since 1860, the chances are better than twelve to one that the popular and electoral college vote will converge in any given election. However, these odds presume continuity over time in the relationship between popular and electoral college votes."

I actually don't know what more you could possibly add to make this clearer. Lichtman (1) states that the Keys ONLY predict the national popular vote, (2) indicates that he's fully aware that the EC & popular vote usually but don't always correlate, and (3) specifies that when the EC & popular vote are split, the Keys predict the popular vote winner.

This isn't remotely out of context, either - the very next paragraph reaffirms that the keys predict the popular vote results (no mention of EC), and indeed the entire book's methodology uses popular vote tables and reasons from them. Hangways1 (talk) 09:36, 1 November 2024 (UTC)

This is a fair conclusion, I thought it was important to make the case for Lichtman's argument in an effort to demonstrate that his record was somewhat disputed.

It's tricky to cite Lichtman's view especially when he reliably behaves in bad faith (I've read his attempted rewrite) but I do think it's worth providing in order to maintain that neutral balance, just sticking to a presentation of the most basic facts.

I'm very satisfied with what's on the page now, especially in that it explicitly refers to the referenced sources rather than adopting their argument while leaving it up to the reader to weigh the merits of Lichtman's testimony. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:E91A:AC65:47F4:CE9F (talk) 01:57, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Focusing on the question of redundancy

In the current version, the section on 2016 recounts the popular vote versus electoral vote issue, doing so in a very biased way. To make it neutral, there would have to be a better presentation of the opposing POVs.

The redundancy problem is that the same issue is addressed again under Criticism. (The neutrality problem is that this section is also biased and, if standing alone, would also need to be augmented, but in this comment I'm focusing on redundancy.)

Both treatments omit the numerous reliable and independent sources that agree with Lichtman that his 2016 prediction was correct. One way to balance them would be to include these sources in both places, thus making the redundancy even worse.

This problem was present in the neutral version that I posted in my Sandbox. Both Hangways1 and Caraturane made some edits to that version, but what's there now still has heavy duplication.

I've come to think that the best approach is to have an extremely terse summary in the "prediction" section, with a wikilink to a dedicated "Popular vote versus electoral vote" section under Criticism.

For now, I'm going to work on a neutral version of the subsection under Criticism. If the consensus is to keep an extensive discussion under the track record as well, then the bias there can be addressed. JamesMLane t c 17:52, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

I think we need to get out of the habit of creating a new topic on this page for everything, since hasn't the Criticism section come up in like four other sections where there were already conversations about this. Personally, the Criticism section doesn't read "biased" to me, it reads like criticism, which is what it is. Tomcleontis (talk) 19:03, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

It's clearly POV to present only criticism, as the current version does. One alternative is to have a subsection in which everything negative is reported, and a separate subsection in which everything positive is reported. I think it makes more sense, though, to divide by issues. Thus, a subsection about "popular vote versus electoral vote" would fairly summarize all the different points of view on that score. Another subsection would report the criticism that the system uses qualitative judgments, and of course would also report Lichtman's response.

As for the "habit" of creating new sections, you are of course free to post your opinions in whatever format seems good to you. I will do the same. As my headline indicates, I want to focus specifically on the question of addressing 2000 and 2016 at length in two different places. JamesMLane t c 21:36, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

Yes, you have a habit of creating too many new sections rather than responding to the same. If we all did the same thing, it would be an amplification of the same problem, not a solution. Case in point: almost all of this could've been said in response to Hangways last and fairly comprehensive reply to you in the last convo. Apprentice57 (talk) 22:16, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

We just don't agree with you on the POV issue that keeps being rehashed. And you're mistaken about there not being enough sources about him calling 2016 right. There's *four* of them, at a certain point it becomes subtly non-neutral POV to over-list sources.

Frankly the article already has an issue at presenting these sources as equally deep as the deep dives into his record. That's a compromise that resolved in your favor. This has already been a long an arduous road to get where we are, and I didn't fight the current version because it seemed like we reached an acceptable compromise.

I cosign hangway's pushback to this that they wrote above, please respond to them there instead, and build consensus before making an edit. Apprentice57 (talk) 22:23, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

No, we have not reached consensus.

As for starting this subsection, the previous sections that you mention were generally about neutrality-related issues. I thought it was obvious that I was being more specific -- addressing the redundancy issue and wanting to focus just on that. Apparently it was not obvious. JamesMLane t c 02:56, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

Never stated we had.

And you commented on much more than just the redundancy in your OP. Apprentice57 (talk) 14:38, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

I wanted a discussion of the specific question of redundancy. No one has commented on that. The comments have instead reverted to the favorite sport of criticizing my conduct. Duly noted. JamesMLane t c 17:25, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

Ok let's SPECIFICALLY discuss redundancy. go ahead. but please be concise as much as possible. Jjazz76 (talk) 19:51, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

Thanks for your interest in considering my actual idea about improving the article!

Here's an example of what might be written under predictions. All the 2000 and 2016 material now in that section and not included in this summary would be moved to a dedicated section, "Popular vote versus electoral vote", which would have all the arguments on all sides.

=== Lichtman's prediction record (1984–present) ===

Using the 13 keys, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome in the majority of the eleven presidential elections from 1984 to 2024. He incorrectly predicted that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 election, which was instead won by Donald Trump. Disagreement arises concerning 2000 and 2016, the years when the popular vote and the electoral vote diverged. One point of view is that Lichtman predicted the popular vote; hence his prediction for 2000 ("Al Gore wins") was correct, but his prediction for 2016 ("Trump wins") was incorrect.* A second point of view is that Lichtman predicted who would become president; hence 2000 was incorrect but 2016 was correct.* A third point of view is that he was predicting the popular vote in 2000 but switched to predicting the electoral vote in 2016; hence both predictions were correct.* See #Popular vote versus electoral vote. It is undisputed that his eight other predictions in the period 1984-2024 were correct.

==== 2024 election ====

Lichtman incorrectly predicted that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 election. He attributes this to three unprecedented events: the Democrats "trashing" their sitting president after the first presidential debate, their eventual nominee not participating in any primaries or caucuses, and belief in disinformation during the election cycle being at a very high scale.

Each place where I have an asterisk would have just one or two footnotes, citing a source that supports that particular POV -- not content footnotes, just a link to show the reader that there are sources for each. JamesMLane t c 23:22, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

References

JamesMLane t c 23:22, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

Further discussion on redundancy

@JamesMLane - sorry I could reply under your post. Your suggestion is to delete the specific sections on the 2000 election and the 2016 election? Jjazz76 (talk) 02:43, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Section at this point would be deleted. What I wrote would be all of "Lichtman's prediction record (1984–present)" up until the Table. (The table would remain.)

The material in those sections would not be deleted, however -- merely moved. JamesMLane t c 04:23, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Ok so how does this address issues of redundancy? It sounds like you are just proposing a new section? Jjazz76 (talk) 04:32, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

There is currently a section on the subject, which consists entirely of material supporting one POV. I would not propose a new section, but simply rewrite that existing section for neutrality. That would include incorporating there the material moved from the prediction section; including material presenting other POVs; and renaming the section "Popular vote versus electoral vote".

The basic idea is to have a brief summary under predictions, with all the blow-by-blow of the competing arguments in a single section. JamesMLane t c 04:47, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Ok that isn't about redundancy though.

It seems like you really want to talk about NPOV. My preference would be to discuss specific parts you don't think are NPOV, not just general sweeping statements that a certain section isn't NPOV. Jjazz76 (talk) 06:10, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

There are two separate issues.

Redundancy: In the current version, the POV that Lichtman got 2016 wrong is presented and argued for in the prediction section (under "2016 election") and then again in the "Prediction of popular vote" section.

Neutrality: In the current version, the predictions subsection on "2016 election" decidedly favors the POV that Lichtman got 2016 wrong. Similarly, the "Reception" section gives more evidence and argument to one POV than to the other.

You're right that these issues are related. If appropriately pro-Lichtman material were added in the prediction section and under "Reception" (either a "Support" subsection or a single "Popular vote versus electoral vote" subsection covering both sides), then the article's overall discussion of 2016 would be more neutral, but there'd be even more redundancy.

What I posted in the preceding section (the one that no longer accepts replies) addresses redundancy by having only a terse summary in the prediction section. It addresses neutrality by not recounting any of the arguments there. To keep it short, it tells the reader what the varying POVs are, without attempting to present or even summarize the arguments made by Lichtman's supporters or detractors. JamesMLane t c 15:03, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Got it. I don't support that proposal. I think the article is plenty balanced as it is and sufficiently detailed. Jjazz76 (talk) 22:34, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Agreed with Jjazz. NPOV does not mean watering down criticism, the article as it is is adequately neutral and even provides Lichtman's responses to criticism, which is beyond what it required. Caraturane (talk) 03:08, 18 November 2024 (UTC)

I have not proposed "watering down" criticism. I've specifically said the criticism should be included, as it was in my neutral version, and I've added that my version wasn't carved in stone and that we could improve the presentation of the criticism.

As for the blatant non-neutrality, to take just one particularly egregious example that I've mentioned: In the current version, the reader gets to know all about the criticism of Lichtman as having missed 2016. The reader learns that particular named reliable sources -- an Atlantic author and Nate Silver -- say that Lichtman missed. All of that is fine. On the other side, however, there's merely a mention that there is another side. The reader has to look at the footnotes to learn who they are, and even then some are omitted.

There appears to be no support here for my preferred solution of putting all these arguments, pro and con, in one section. Therefore, I'll go ahead with beginning to balance the "Criticism" with a "Support" section. Later we can tackle the non-neutrality of the discussion under the predictions recap. JamesMLane t c 16:34, 18 November 2024 (UTC)

I took out the second "of the Atlantic" because that person has her own page. Happy to discuss rewording "Gilad Edelman of The Atlantic" if that's going to be an issue.

I'm fine with a support section as long as it includes RS. And I'll not I'm going to object to any sources that make general claims about Lichtman that come before the 2024 election. Jjazz76 (talk) 06:19, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

James, I think you might get better reception to your proposals here if you let go of the constant (and generally passive aggressive) certainty that your pet version of the article was definitively NPOV.

• Most of the editors here do not seem to regard the article in its current form as POV.
• The "2016 election" section solely quotes from Lichtman (e.g. the 2016 election section) and thus does not present a POV — you have not yet responded to this point to my knowledge (and I have raised it several times), but continue to insist it is non-neutral.
• Meanwhile, I have repeatedly edited both the Media Coverage and Criticism sections to incorporate your requests... only for you to shift the goalposts and demand yet more.
  • (e.g. I myself edited in more sources to support Lichtman's positive reception in 2016, the Nostradamus quote, the 9/10 from 1984 to 2020 quote, etc., and I reorganised the Criticism section on the same principle your own Version 2 used. You simply do not acknowledge these changes to promote Lichtman's/your POV and demand it represent his POV even more strongly.)
• Your 'Version 2' received exactly one editor who agreed with you that it was more neutral, but several who thought it was actively less neutral and omitted key criticisms and sources. (For example, your version glossed over Lichtman's repeated statements in 2016 that he was ONLY making a popular vote prediction with a mere "Lichtman was USUALLY referring to the popular vote" and nothing more. This is clearly not NPOV, either.)

The fact that you seem to regard the vast majority of editors here (and their work) as blatantly and undeniably POV, even while they also make pro-Lichtman changes at your request and remove anti-Lichtman vandalism (which multiple of us here have also done & discussed), should set off some alarm bells that perhaps you're the one pushing a POV constantly.

I'm certainly open to potential redundancy changes — I raised this issue too when describing my own edits to bring the Criticism section more in line with your Version 2. Hangways1 (talk) 10:32, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

I thought I had responded to the point you say I neglected. If I missed it in the blizzard of comments here, my apologies.

Here's the response:

• There's a POV that says Lichtman missed 2016. Someone arguing for that POV can include statements from Lichtman and also statements from independent sources.
• There's a POV that says Lichtman got 2016 right. Someone arguing for that POV can include statements from Lichtman and also statements from independent sources.

Simply saying "Well, we quoted Lichtman" doesn't prove neutrality.

To take the Brandeis piece as one example: It's footnoted twice, in the context of saying that Lichtman has called a majority of the elections. The reader does not learn that Brandeis credited him with getting 2016 right. By contrast, the reader does learn that Silver, the Atlantic, and a couple of nonnotable bloggers say he got it wrong.

I'm sorry if you think I'm moving the goalposts. I've been raising issues like this consistently. I'm now going ahead with what I said in my post just above -- i.e., since it's obvious that the removal of a separate "Criticism" section and its replacement with a single "Issues" section would be instantly reverted, I'll give up on trying to go issue-by-issue with pros and cons, and instead write a "Support" section. JamesMLane t c 03:26, 21 November 2024 (UTC)

The way the article is is neutral, you just do not seem to like what it says, despite the fact that reputable sources reporting on this issue of 2016 specifically have been very clear about it. You have continued to disparage and use the same language as Lichtman in referring to the reporters and critics who have actually only reported on the facts here concerning 2016 without any dispute of the actual facts reported we have all continued to cite. That is clearly not neutral.

By the way, as a matter of reference, Lichtman went to Brandeis. We should probably go with a more neutral source, as it is probably better left to someone else. Don't get me wrong, I don't really think they're being biased other than puffing up an alum, but if these are the kinds of arguments we're going to resort to, then I'm happy to get into it if you intend to nickle and dime us handful of editors who have continuously attempted to engage with you in good faith only to see you move the goalpost and resort to Lichtman's own disproven statements time and time again.

I do not believe this article needs a "Support" section beyond what it already has. Caraturane (talk) 03:35, 21 November 2024 (UTC)

I also want to note, that with the amended version of the articles (and kudos to hangways for leading the charge on that) we've now have a total of 5 of us with a variety of positions on NPOV who have arrived at a compromise and are happy with the current state of the article at least as per the POV discussion. (Plus two less consistent editors who seemed to support these changes too).

@JamesMLane I'd ask that you remove the disputed POV notice at this time. We've thoroughly discussed the POV issue since you added that tag (and when the RfC was held), brought in new voices, and all other editors are happy with the compromised reached (at least as far as POV goes). It doesn't seem proper that one user can hold out with this tag over the entire article in this circumstance. Not to mention it casts doubt on other parts of the article completely unrelated to our discussions.

We can of continue discussing POV edits, and of course adjacent issues like redundancy, but it would be a show of good faith on your end. Hangways has constructively laid out in two recent comments why it's been upsetting for us to try to edit with you.

I suppose we can look into the NPOV noticeboard if that isn't acceptable to you, but I would prefer we stop involving third parties. Apprentice57 (talk) 14:30, 21 November 2024 (UTC)

Yeah I would second Apprentice57's request. A lot of hard work towards consensus building has happened on this page over the last month, and I think it is a sensible and prudent request. Jjazz76 (talk) 05:20, 22 November 2024 (UTC)

Removing the Disputed Neutrality Template

I wrote this in another section, but given it is a few comments deep and editing this article has been contentious this year, I thought I'd telegraph this explicitly ahead of time as a further show of good faith.

This article has had the disputed tag on it since roughly the start of the month by @JamesMLane (who I want to also tag here in the likely case they want to weigh in). At that point, there was at least their dispute about the neutrality of the article, as well as one additional IP user who weighed in on a recent RfC and another user who contributed to the talk page with some similar concerns.

Since then, thanks to hangways leading some changes, we've reached at least a compromise where everyone who responded to the RfC/objected to the article's neutrality (and has kept active in this talk page) has agreed on the current neutrality of the article other than James. I haven't seen a response on my request that they remove the template, I'll give it a few more days before I intend to do so myself.

If there's others who object to the article's neutrality, I'd welcome that being aired here. I don't want to unilaterally remove the template. But also once removed I want to ensure it is not reinstituted (absent further nontrivial changes and new neutrality concerns). Apprentice57 (talk) 01:35, 26 November 2024 (UTC)

I think there is a difference between things settling down for a few days and consensus about Neutrality. A review of the edit summaries alone of the main article for the last week still seem to suggest that there is soft-POV posturing still going on. I also think that there is still some degree of involved editors who are on both sides of the issue of WP:FRINGE, so it is probably still appropriate to keep that notice up a little while longer. I performed quick check of the last several weeks of edits and it still seems like the edits are still POV in either support or in criticism of this "prediction system". I see concerns when items are introduced such as Lichtman has explained that, in advance of the 2016 election, he switched to predicting the electoral vote yet the two references are to 2024 posted Live Streamed YouTube interviews; its very difficult to use that as evidence to support what some would consider adjusting the criteria after the fact. Even the existence of a "support" section seems to not common for controversial articles, as generally the article itself positions itself as "pro" topic, reserving just a section for criticism. TiggerJay (talk) 06:10, 26 November 2024 (UTC)

I didn't mean to imply there was complete consensus (and it's been a couple weeks since the last major revision but that's an aside), but that we're getting there. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding how neutrality templates work; my understanding is they reflect more seriously/fundamental disputes and we seem to be at the more minute/nuanced dispute stage (with one exception from JamesMLane).

Sorry if this is already known to you. But some background: the POV template was put on the article in response to it being too critical of Lichtman (at least as James, who put on the template, argued; as has Lichtman himself). The edits have generally moved in the direction of being less critical, and while not to James' satisfaction, it has gained the support of everybody else who has weighed in (to my knowledge) including two people in the middle on the RfC and related discussions. Even though the template in abstract doesn't imply *how* something is disputed, in practice here it's a proxy for being disputed as too critical of Lichtman. Which feels improper for only one editor holding that viewpoint.

As a potential compromise, how would you feel about keeping the template but moving it to only the Reception section? The other potentially relevant sections seem much more... inoffensive/inarguable since the revisions (the header, and the prediction record sections) and I'd prefer not to cast doubt on all the uninvolved work that goes into sections 1-3. Apprentice57 (talk) 09:01, 26 November 2024 (UTC)

The most notably non-neutral aspect of the current version is the prediction record section. The selection of the facts to be included or excluded, and the phrasing, are biased. I've mentioned this concern above.

I suggested a completely neutral version, which achieved neutrality by not trying to present any of the arguments for or against the different POVs:

Assessments state variously that he got them all right, or that he was correct in all but 2000, or that he was correct in all but 2016. It is undisputed that his prediction of a win for Kamala Harris in 2024 was incorrect. [and a couple footnotes for each POV, then a wikilink to the more complete discussion below]

The idea is to report the existence of the POVs, leaving all the argumentation for the "Reception" section. Trying to present the arguments fairly but succinctly will be difficult. (It would be easy to achieve either one of those goals -- it's combining them that's the problem!) The succinct version with a wikilink doesn't seem to have found favor, so I'll try a rewrite for neutrality. JamesMLane t c 04:01, 27 November 2024 (UTC)

I think that is just way too wordy. how it is now conveys the same info more concisely. And as for the 2016 controversy. many sources do indeed say he got that one right. so its not just lichtman himself saying it. so its fair to say its disputed. Wikiman5676 (talk) 07:47, 27 November 2024 (UTC)

Sorry, I don't understand what you think is too wordy. What I suggested above for the predictions section is much shorter than what's there now. JamesMLane t c 20:11, 27 November 2024 (UTC)

Something doesnt have to be long to be wordy. its just phrased in a way that's not suitable for a lead summary Wikiman5676 (talk) 08:10, 28 November 2024 (UTC)

With regard to 2000 and 2016, there are three different POVs. I don't think it's clunky to just tell the reader that there are these three POVs.

I can't help but suspect that the real issue is something else: a reluctance to accord NPOV treatment to the view that Lichtman got 2016 right. There are editors here who dismiss that view as a "fringe position" and who engage in the dispute by explaining their preference for the arguments the other way. Obviously, people are entitled to hold whatever opinions they want, but WP:NPOV means that those opinions do not get reflected in the article.

The current discussion of 2016 mentions Lichtman's own statements (although with the loaded word "claimed"); then piles on the evidence cutting the other way; omits the evidence supporting Lichtman's view; and doesn't mention that multiple independent (non-Lichtman) sources agree with him. On the disputed subject of 2016, this version is extremely one-sided. JamesMLane t c 19:27, 2 December 2024 (UTC)

I would note that the "fringe position" language is coming from TiggerJay above, yet another editor who seems to agree with the pushback we have given you in the past.

You might consider that the fact pattern for 2016 is extremely one sided. Apprentice57 (talk) 22:46, 4 December 2024 (UTC)

With specific regard to 2016, I think the problem is that from everything listed in the article, that reliable sources prior to 2016 point to the keys predicting specifically the popular outcome, and this article shows that in 2016 Trump did not win the popular, but rather only the electoral, and the Lichtman's claim that since the contested result in 2000, he began predicting the outcome of the Electoral College seems to only be supported by primary sources several years later. And "if" this is true, the reason why I suggest this is so important, is that in combination with 2000 and 2024, that this significantly impacts the credibility of these "predictions" from being truly accurate, to instead look like revisionist-history, to gerrymander the actual predictions to "make them fit" reality after the fact. That is what it appears from a review of the article as it is currently presented.

To action upon that would be WP:OR and WP:SYNTH which we should avoid within the article, however, you can use your reasoning skills to search out appropriate reliable secondary sources, and then present that information with appropriate weight. But of course, that is where we are today, how much weight should be presented between the system/keys/methodology themselves and the criticism of the topic. If indeed 2000, 2016 and 2024 were all falsely predicted using the methodology in place at the time of the prediction then 3 out of the last 7 were incorrectly predicted. However the apparent flip-flop of the say popular vs electoral winner very much muddies the waters, as it makes it difficult to determine what the "prediction" was actually indented to represented. There are those who are confident that those elections were actually called correctly, while others present their sources that present those years as falsely predicted. And that also opens up the question, in 2024, are they Keys noteworthy because of their accuracy, inaccuracy or methodology? As that should shape the weight of the article. TiggerJay (talk) 04:18, 5 December 2024 (UTC)

Well you uh, have mentioned the concern but again I think you're out on a limb as far as the presumed neutrality. Which was kinda what this discussion was about (that I argue it isn't in good faith for you to hold out on the disputed tag for a anti-Lichtman bias before in good faith given lack of backup support). I'd note that you didn't respond directly on that point here nor the other thread, though I can infer your answer decently enough.

I agree with Wikiman and think that wording is very clunky, I don't support it. Also argued by hangways elsewhere, the reception section is neutral as is from where I'm standing. It uses only Lichtman's words, and not in a cherrypicking fashion, to report those predictions. This would probably be best to continue elsewhere. Apprentice57 (talk) 14:20, 27 November 2024 (UTC)

(Response to TiggerJay) I've stated my preference here: No "Support" section and no "Criticism" section, just subsections under "Issues" with each subsection addressing both support and criticism as regards that topic (e.g., "Popular vote versus electoral vote"). Failing that solution, however, and given that several editors insist on a "Criticism" section, there has to be a "Support" section. I invite you to look at the version before I added that section and consider whether it positions itself as supporting the topic. IMO it was clearly biased against the Keys model. JamesMLane t c 04:08, 27 November 2024 (UTC)

I agree. Removing the tag seems suitable by now. We've already repaired all the major points that were the source of it. Wikiman5676 (talk) 07:40, 27 November 2024 (UTC)

I agree as well, I think we could all benefit from letting sleeping dogs lie here. Tomcleontis (talk) 13:08, 6 December 2024 (UTC)