Talk:Black Rain (novel)

non-cancer effects

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10477914 "Statistically significant excess risks were detected for uterine myoma, chronic hepatitis and liver cirrhosis, thyroid disease, and cardiovascular disease." Shimizu Y, Pierce DA, Preston DL, Mabuchi K: Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors. Report 12, Part II. Noncancer mortality: 1950-1990. Radiation Research 152:374-89, 1999. "[we] posit essentially zero risk for doses below 0.5 Sv[500 mSv]. Similarly, while the data are consistent with substantial variation in the excess relative risk with age at exposure or attained age, there is no statistically significant dependence on these factors. In view of the small relative risks and the lack of understanding of biological mechanisms, we emphasize consideration of whether the findings could be explained by misclassification, confounding or selection effects.

relevant books to mine for further information

Medical Effects of the Atomic Bomb in Japan. Edited by A.W. Oughterson and S. Warren. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1956, 477 pp. (This book was based on the 6-volume report of the Joint Commission for the Investigation of the Effects of the Atomic Bomb in Japan. Copies of the original 6-volume report are archived at the US National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, and at the RERF Hiroshima Library. Volumes 1-5 can also be downloaded here, however Volume 6 is still classified secret so, good luck future people, in reading that. https://www.osti.gov/scitech/search/author:%22Oughterson,%20A.W.%22

Although from what I've read the preceeding document to the analysis done in Vol 6, was published years earlier in 1951, and it is available. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MEDICAL EFFECTS OF THE ATOMIC BOMBS. From the Report of the Joint Commission for the Investigation of the Effects of the Atomic Bomb in Japan. Downloadable here. https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/4381263

known fallout zones and the potential for dose reconstruction disrepancies

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep00304/figures/3 241Am/239+240Pu from the Nagasaki atomic bomb...(although mostly about showing the decay fingerprint of plutonium derived from world nuclear testing and from the fukushima releases).

"The 241Am ingrowth from the Nagasaki atomic bomb detonation was based on the initial 241Pu/239+240Pu activity ratio estimated by Yamamoto et al.27. The 241Am/239+240Pu activity ratio (0.036 ±0.006) detected in a soil core collected in Nishiyama area, Nagasaki, Japan in 2008 approached the calculated maximum value, indicating that 241Am and Pu were still together in the soils after 6 decades."

http://www.rerf.or.jp/general/qa_e/qa12.html Subsequently, the material cooled down and some of it started to fall with rain (black rain) in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki areas, but probably most of the remaining uranium or plutonium was dispersed widely in the atmosphere. Because of the wind, the rain did not fall directly on the hypocenters but rather in the west region (Koi, Takasu area) of Hiroshima and the eastern region (Nishiyama area) of Nagasaki.

The maximum estimates of dose due to fallout are 0.006-0.02 Gy in Hiroshima and 0.12-0.24 Gy in Nagasaki. The corresponding doses at the hypocenters are believed to be only about 1/6 of these values.

Nowadays, the radioactivity is so miniscule that it is difficult to distinguish from trace amounts (including plutonium) of radioactivity caused by worldwide fallout from atmospheric (as opposed to underground) atomic-bomb tests that were conducted around the world in past decades, particularly in the 1950s and 1960s.

These dose estimates were calculated on the basis of Roentgen exposure in air (1-3 R), the unit used originally to measure integrated external exposure to fallout radiation, multiplied by 0.87 to calculate rads in air (absorbed dose in air) and by 0.7 to arrive at rads in tissue (average absorbed dose to the tissue of the human body), divided by 100 to convert from rads to gray. More detailed information can be found in Chapter 6 (p. 224) of the Dosimetry System 1986 (DS86) “U.S.-Japan Joint Reassessment of Atomic Bomb Radiation Dosimetry in Hiroshima and Nagasaki Final Report,” published by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. The DS86 publication is available |here"

"Past investigations suggested that the maximum cumulative dose at the hypocenter from immediately after the bombing until today is 0.8 Gy in Hiroshima and 0.3-0.4 Gy in Nagasaki. When the distance is 0.5 km or 1.0 km from the hypocenter, the estimates are about 1/10 and 1/100 of the value at the hypocenter, respectively. The induced radioactivity decayed very quickly with time. In fact, nearly 80% of the above-mentioned doses were released within a day, about 10% between days 2 and 5, and the remaining 10% from day 6 afterward. Considering the extensive fires near the hypocenters that prevented people from entering until the following day, it seems unlikely that any person received over 20% of the above-mentioned dose, i.e., 0.16 Gy in Hiroshima and 0.06-0.08 Gy in Nagasaki." http://www.rerf.or.jp/general/qa_e/qa12.html

Note. In these specific areas, fallout and the dose from neutron activation close to the hypocenter, were definitely not negligible. So it is uncertain if the RERF neglect fallout exposure, as it appears they only look at the prompt radiation dose that was released, with distance from the hypocenter. Under their "the proximally exposed survivors and the distally exposed" classification. These two groups together are formally known as the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort.

In addition to the Life Span Study, RERF scientists are involved in studies of several other populations. These include the Adult Heath Study (AHS), In Utero Exposed, and Second Generation Cohorts. The AHS population comprises 20,000 members of the LSS, who, since 1958, have been asked to participate in biennial clinic examinations carried out at RERF. About 3,000 people who were exposed to the bombings while in utero make up a second group. Finally, a group of about 80,000 constitute the F1 cohort and include children born to parents with and without exposure to the bombs.

dose reconstruction

Radiation dose reconstruction for the populace in the 2 cities.

• "Radiation transport calculations". Charting the estimated prompt gamma radiation and neutron radiation, the latter figure being derived from activation of Sulfur, Copper and Nickel in the hypocenter area of Nagasaki. DS02

http://www.rerf.or.jp/shared/ds02/ see "P192"

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16808610/ Dose estimation for atomic bomb survivor studies: its evolution and present status. Cullings et. al, 2006

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20797770 Feasibility of using 236U to reconstruct close-in fallout deposition from the Hiroshima atomic bomb.2010

Moreover Tanaka's team has done some investigative work in this black rain area.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22042969 Estimation of beta-ray skin dose from exposure to fission fallout from the Hiroshima atomic bomb. 2008

K. Shizuma's team also did considerable work.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12553644 Anomalous 235U/238U ratios and metal elements detected in the black rain from the Hiroshima A-bomb.2003

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8698576 137Cs concentration in soil samples from an early survey of Hiroshima atomic bomb and cumulative dose estimation from the fallout. Quote "A comparison of the 137Cs deposition with the rainfall area within Hiroshima city indicates that the rainfall area was wider than the previously proposed one."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22217588 Isotope ratios of (235)U/(238)U and (137)Cs/(235)U in black rain streaks on plaster wall caused by fallout of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.2012 "Concentration of (137)Cs in the black rain streaks is twice as high as fallout deposition on the ground in this area."

A confounding factor in the epilation observed in survivors also comes from neutron activated materials, an activation that occurred almost instantly at zero-hour(08:15): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18496704 Skin dose from neutron-activated soil for early entrants following the A-bomb detonation in Hiroshima: contribution from beta and gamma rays. 2011

Keep in mind however that, although not mentioned in either paper, this is only skin dose and the many accounts, such as Akiko Takakura's were survivors desperately drank the rain(as they were thirsty from the heat of the fires that caused the rain) this ingestion likely contributed to the committed dose and thus brought their dose up to the latter papers 2 Sievert threshold for epilation, a dose which the authors did not reach via computing the skin dose alone.

Moreover one routinely gets sick/vomits after ingesting non-radioactive Activated charcoal (medication), as it is a common treatment regime following chemical poisoning. So you should not jump to the conclusion that everyone that recounts getting sick after drinking the rain definitely experienced the threshold dose for vomiting from it, if you're doing dose reconstructions. While highly plausible for those who got rained on with soot originating close to the hypocenter, this charcoal-often-causes-vomiting on-its-own factor, is just something to keep in mind. Gastrointestinal side effects [from activated carbon frequently included nausea and vomiting (13% to 30%) and constipation.]

Masako Tachibana's account is also tragic and interesting, she vomited.

Webpages under construction - http://falloutlayer.blogspot.ie/2016/12/fallout-in-hiroshima-and-nagasaki.html

http://falloutlayer.weebly.com/ Boundarylayer (talk) 01:13, 2 December 2016 (UTC)

Contemporary assessment by manhattan engineer district

The following is a quote from the manhattan engineer district's 1946 publication THE ATOMIC BOMBINGS OF HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI.You can buy it on amazon but fortunately it has been digitized, in pdf form which I found helpful. However for viewers who don't want to download a pdf, one non-pdf version is linked below. Now before reading it there is a major Caveat not elaborated on, in this report, that should be kept in mind. Essentially, the Manhattan project "engineer district" are only concerned with dose levels were easily observable physiological changes are evident, that is, doses at which actual deterministic radiation injury occurred. They only concern themselves with this type of injury and so, this is in part, probably where the oft repeated phrase comes from that there was "no ("militarily significant") nuclear fallout or radiation in the hypocenters, from neutron activation". Therefore, their rather incomplete and cursory investigation(They only focus on gamma dose when nuclear fallout and its major constituent of fission products, are moreso intense beta radiation emitters in the first weeks, so they neglect that entirely, for an example of how cursory their invesigation is) all conveys the fact that they clearly only focus on militarily significant or deterministic acute radiation sickness injuries, such as drops in white blood cell count(leukopenia), they naturally say nothing of the the stochastic increase in the rate of cancer that was caused in these regions with the absorption of a few hundred millisieverts, a dose that was about the average. http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/mp22.asp

Direct measurements of persistent radioactivity were made at the time of the investigation. From these measurements, calculations were made of the graded radiation dosages, i.e., the total amount of radiation which could have been absorbed by any person. These calculations showed that the highest dosage which would have been received from persistent radioactivity at Hiroshima was between 6 and 25 roentgens of gamma radiation; the highest in the Nagasaki Area was between 30 and 110 roentgens of gamma radiation. The latter figure does not refer to the city itself, but to a localized area in the Nishiyama District. In interpreting these findings it must be understood that to get these dosages, one would have had to remain at the point of highest radioactivity for 6 weeks continuously, from the first hour after the bombing. It is apparent therefore that insofar as could be determined at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the residual radiation alone could not have been detrimental to the health of persons entering and living in the bombed areas after the explosion. The second approach to this question was to determine if any persons not in the city at the time of the explosion, but coming in immediately afterwards exhibited any symptoms or findings which might have been due to persistence induced radioactivity. By the time of the arrival of the Manhattan Engineer District group, several Japanese studies had been done on such persons. None of the persons examined in any of these studies showed any symptoms which could be attributed to radiation, and their actual blood cell counts were consistently within the normal range. Throughout the period of the Manhattan Engineer District investigation, Japanese doctors and patients were repeatedly requested to bring to them any patients who they thought might be examples of persons harmed from persistent radioactivity. No such subjects were found.

Contemporary discussion by the USSBS/Strategic bombing survey

Unlike the above document, I had the print or even full PDF version of the USSBS. But alas here is a html digitization of this 1947 document, with the important points on fallout high-lighted by me. http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/USSBS/AtomicEffects/AtomicEffects-3.html

The damaging penetration of radiation would be possible from three sources:

From the high-frequency radiations, whether neutrons, gamma rays, or other unspecified rays, released in the chain reaction of the bomb.

From lingering radioactivity from deposits of primary fission products scattered in the explosion.

From induced radioactivity in the bombed area, caused by interaction of neutrons with matter penetrated.

Only the first cause seems to have had important effects, though there are detectable pockets of radioactivity in both cities. At Takasu, 10,000 feet from ground zero at Hiroshima, and at Nishiyama, 6,500 feet from ground zero in Nagasaki, scientific measurements weeks after the explosion showed radioactivity. Presumably this was from deposits of primary fission products rather than induced radioactivity. In tests of the ground and bones of victims of radiation disease, certain substances--phosphorus, barium, strontium, rare earths--have shown radioactivity. Though evidence of lingering radioactivity is slight, it is strong enough to leave open the ominous possibility of a different situation had the bomb exploded at ground level.

The radiation apparently had no lasting effects on the soil or vegetation: Seeds later planted within a few hundred feet of ground zero grew normally. Examination of subsurface soil in t he immediate area showed presence of earthworms and other life only a few inches below the surface.

a massive number of US military resided in the city/surroundings

I have doubts about how reliable veteran associations are, as they have an incentive to claim injury to receive free money/compensation, so they have a conflict of interest. As no causal link may actually exist, but I'll include them as they certainly moved thru the bombed areas soon after the events and I'll include them to communicate the fact that the US military didn't think the areas were all that dangerous. The following are the interspersed but pertinent paragraphs in the very long article linked below. My skepticism is peaked by some of the alleged "radiation" effects that are stated, some of which are clinically impossible, for example your hair doesn't fall out a year after acute radiation syndrome/radiation exposure. The guy was probably destined to lose his hair anyway like most typical 20 year old males. https://www.thenation.com/article/last-great-untold-story-world-war-ii-and-lingering-effects-today/

The first American troops landed at Yokohama, near Tokyo, on August 28, with 15,000 pouring in within a few days, under the direction of Gen. Douglas MacArthur. Also arriving were forward elements of the US Strategic Bombing Survey, which had been organized by the Army

On September 8, General Thomas F. Ferrell arrived in Hiroshima with a radiologist and two physicists from Los Alamos, ordered by Manhattan Project chief General Leslie Groves to return to Tokyo the following day with preliminary findings. There was some urgency. It was one thing if the Japanese were dying of radiation disease; there was nothing we could do about that. But sending in American soldiers if it was unsafe was another

"A marine named Sam Scione, who had survived battles on Guadacanal, Tarawa and Okinawa, now arrived in Nagasaki, sleeping first in a burned-out factory, then a schoolhouse. “We never learned anything about radiation or the effects it might have on us,” he later said. “We went to ground zero many times and were never instructed not to go there.” A year later, on his return to the United States, his hair began to fall out and his body was covered in sores. He suffered a string of ailments but never was awarded service-related disability status.

The first large group of US soldiers arrived in Nagasaki around September 23, about the time the Japanese newsreel teams started filming, and in Hiroshima two weeks later. They were part of a force of 240,000 that occupied the islands of Honshu (where Hiroshima is located) and Kyushu (Nagasaki). Many more landed in Nagasaki, partly because its harbor was not mined. Marines from the 2nd Division, with three regimental combat teams, took Nagasaki while the US Army’s 24th and 41st divisions seized Hiroshima. The US Navy transported Marines and evacuated POWs, but its role ashore (beyond medical services) was limited.

Most of the troops in Hiroshima were based in camps on the edge of the city, but a larger number did set up camps inside Nagasaki. Because of the alleged absence of residual radiation, no one was urged to take precautions. Some bunked down in buildings close to ground zero, even slept on the earth and engaged in cleanup operations, including disposing bodies, without protective gear. Few if any wore radiation detection badges.

The occupying force in Nagasaki grew to more than 27,000 as the Hiroshima regiments topped 40,000. Included were many military doctors and nurses. Some stayed for months. The US Strategic Bomb Survey sent a small group of photographers to take black-and-white photos of blast effects. By all accounts the Americans were charmed by the Japanese, thankful that the bomb might have helped end the war and profoundly affected by what they witnessed.... More than 9,000 Allied POWs were processed through Nagasaki, but the number of occupation troops dropped steadily every month. By April 1946, the United States had withdrawn military personnel from Hiroshima, and they were out of Nagasaki by August. An estimated 118,000 personnel passed through the atomic cities at one point or another. Some of them were there mainly as tourists, and wandered through the ruins, snapping photos and buying artifacts.

When the servicemen returned to the United States, many of them suffered from strange rashes and sores. Years later some were afflicted with disease (such as thyroid problems and leukemia) or cancer associated with radiation exposure."

contentious claims

Shoji Sawada, a Hibakusha themselves apparently, published a paper Cover-up of the effects of internal exposure by residual radiation from the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - which essentially delves into the black-rain issue that is rarely discussed.

In the non-medical Asia-Pacific journal, A translated article by Sawada Shoji features. Titled - Scientists and Research on the Effects of Radiation Exposure: From Hiroshima to Fukushima However I'm skeptical of this article due to the author being, I think I read somewhere, fairly chummy with Christopher Busby. The claims contained herein should therefore be investigated to determine their veracity. http://apjjf.org/2013/11/23/Sawada-Shoji/3952/article.html

DS86 gave dose assessments of gamma and neutron radiation from initial radiation at designated distances from the hypocentres of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The report also included a chapter on radiation doses from residual radioactivity which provided physical measurements of radiation released from radioactive material caused by fallout rain that entered the soil and was not washed away in the black rain or heavy downpours that followed the blast, as well as measurements of radiation released from material affected by induced radioactivity. Based on the calculations, it considered maximum exposure doses from radioactive fallout to be 6-20 mSv in the Koi-Takasu district of Hiroshima, three to four kilometres west of the hypocentre, and 200 mSv in the Nishiyama district of Nagasaki, approximately three kilometres east of the hypocentre, with other areas receiving negligible doses. The report, however, does concede the possibility that radioactive matter washed away in the rain afterwards.

Nevertheless, both the RERF and the Japanese government used these figures from DS86 as a basis for disregarding radioactive effects from radioactive fallout...Dr Shizuma Kiyoshi and his colleagues ran some tests and discovered that the soil collected from the eastern foot of the Nishi-Ohashi Bridge, which later experienced heavy rain, measured radioactivity levels more than twenty times those in the Koi-Takasu district, considered by DS86 to have received the highest amount of radioactive fallout material in Hiroshima. This fact indicates that the washing away of radioactive matter, stated as a mere possibility in DS86, did indeed occur.