Talk:Black Death/Archive 6

Archive 1

←

Archive 4

Archive 5

Archive 6

how many deaths

I know little about the Black Death, but I ran across the sourcing of this page criticizing Wikipedia's death toll numbers. Perhaps someone who cares about this page might dig into this? Apologies if this was already discussed.

http://lukemuehlhauser.com/industrial-revolution/#:~:text=the%20first%20sentence%20of%20wikipedia%E2%80%99s

The first sentence of Wikipedia’s Black Death article claimed a death toll of “75 to 200 million people,” citing three news articles which themselves provide no sources for their estimates. Searches for academic literature turned up many academic sources using the 200 million figure, but nearly all of them (that I checked) made clear that the 200 million figure sums deaths across multiple (usually, “three”) different pandemics caused by Yersinia pestis, occurring centuries apart. Moreover, for the academic sources providing a citation for the 200 million figure that I was able to track down, the reference trail in all cases led eventually to a single source: an article from the May 1988 issue of National Geographic by photojournalist Nicole Duplaix, titled “Fleas: The Lethal Leapers” (pp. 672-694). That article, too, is clear that the 200 million figure refers not to deaths for the “Black Death” of the 1340s-50s, but to deaths summed across multiple pandemics. Moreover, this number is highly suspect, given that Duplaix provides no source or analysis for it. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Gruntler (talk • contribs) 17:38, 31 March 2022 (UTC)

If it was in Europe and Asia it was not a pandemic

The introductory text says it was a pandemic, it needs to be changed. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 90.71.160.34 (talk) 16:39, 3 May 2022 (UTC)

It is universally referred to in secondary sources as a pandemic. -- asilvering (talk) 17:01, 3 May 2022 (UTC)

Requested change

The death toll for Asia (China) is currently missing. I suggest to add this in bold.

The Black Death was the second great natural disaster to strike Europe during the Late Middle Ages (the first one being the Great Famine of 1315–1317) and is estimated to have killed 30 percent to 60 percent of the European population, as well as about one-third of the population of the Middle East. It also killed 25 million people in Asia and North Africa. 2600:6C44:117F:879E:19E7:CDF3:9594:516 (talk) 06:06, 28 May 2022 (UTC)

I agree that more estimates of deaths would be helpful if there are reliable sources, but history.com is a TV channel, not a reliable academic source. Also, it is misleading to group Asia and North Africa when there is already a figure for the Middle East, which covers part of both areas. Dudley Miles (talk) 07:31, 28 May 2022 (UTC)

After a closer look, I propose to add the following in bold. 2600:6C44:117F:879E:1073:506:60FC:5A63 (talk) 18:52, 28 May 2022 (UTC)

In Cairo, with a population numbering as many as 600,000, and possibly the largest city west of China, between one third and 40% of the inhabitants died inside of eight months. There is no evidence that the pandemic has seriously affected China and India.

After a closer look at the article, I see that China and India are extensively discussed in the 'Territorial origins' section. Your suggestion would just duplicate what is already there. Dudley Miles (talk) 21:51, 28 May 2022 (UTC)

The effects of the pandemic in India and China should be at least mentioned in "Consequences" section. I had a hard time pin-pointing the effects of the pandemic in India and China when I first read this article. I was looking for a specific information. Other readers may be on the same boat as me. Also, a little duplicate won't hurt (1 extra sentence). Plus, "territorial origins" section should focus on the origin, not the effects.

Lastly, one can argue that these two sentences are saying 2 related but different things. One sentence is saying the Black Death may not have reached India and China. Second sentence is saying if the Black Death did reach India and China, it didn't have any serious impact on those 2 countries. In other words, one sentence focuses on the location while the other focuses on the effects. 68.112.186.77 (talk) 02:41, 29 May 2022 (UTC)

Second solution: delete this "Research on the Delhi Sultanate and the Yuan Dynasty shows no evidence of any serious epidemic in fourteenth-century India and no specific evidence of plague in fourteenth-century China, suggesting that the Black Death may not have reached these regions" and add my proposal per above. 68.112.186.77 (talk) 02:42, 29 May 2022 (UTC)

References

New Information of origins

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/15/health/black-death-plague-source-identified-scn/index.html

Looks like it might have originated in Kyrgyzstan. 198.70.2.200 (talk) 13:15, 16 June 2022 (UTC)

black death

bubonic plague originated in England, not in east asia. 173.66.0.35 (talk) 20:55, 16 June 2022 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 20 June 2022. citation 142 is a broken link and needs fixing

Citation 142 is a broken link and needs fixing 70.179.91.169 (talk) 04:53, 20 June 2022 (UTC)

I've changed the citation so that the default url from the title is the archived version, as the original now leads to a 404. I assume this was what you meant as "broken". Aidan9382 _(talk) 05:08, 20 June 2022 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 17 June 2022

Based on DNA evidence, the area near Bishkek is considered one of the possible origins of the Black Death between 1346 A.D. and 1353 A.D. Jacobroecker (talk) 04:41, 17 June 2022 (UTC)  

Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate.Fbifriday (talk) 02:40, 10 July 2022 (UTC)

References

Would like to add Consequences of the Black Death link near the reference of the benefits of Black Death

Per spidermarios request I created this talk to reach consensus on where to put it, I feel it would bring better organization to the wiki page as the consequences tab has nothing in it besides a link to the consequences of the Black Death itself Bobisland (talk) 10:02, 23 October 2022 (UTC)

Sorry, what request? My only change in relation to this article was to change a link to a more specific article. Spidermario (talk) 19:45, 8 November 2022 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 28 April 2023

The black death had arrived on 12 ships with men and rats carrying the infection. The men were either dead or infested with the plague. Though the men did transfer some of the sickness into Europe, it was mainly the rats on the ship that had carried the plague. Ilikethemiddleages (talk) 15:47, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

References

 Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate. JTP ^{(talk • contribs)} 00:58, 29 April 2023 (UTC)

It's already mentioned in the article that fleas, living on black rats aboard ships, most likely carried the plague westward. WP Ludicer (talk) 18:48, 29 July 2023 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 31 July 2023

Remove part of introduction saying the Black Death was probably spread by aerosols, which were not invented until 600 years AFTER the Black Death hit. 84.68.81.169 (talk) 14:34, 31 July 2023 (UTC)

This is ridiculous, you cant expect us to only write in the format of "change X to Y" because it is not relevant. You dont need to change the sentence, you just need to remove it because it is blatantly incorrect. 84.68.81.169 (talk) 14:36, 31 July 2023 (UTC)

 Not done Aerosol does not refer to anything man-made, see the linked article. "change X to Y" doesn't need to be taken literally, it's just a way to encourage requests to be specific. WelpThatWorked (talk) 15:44, 31 July 2023 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 20 September 2023

"percent" (as in %) is spelled wrong - per cent with a space. 2 words. 2A06:C701:4C72:7900:FD67:C7BA:223B:6A56 (talk) 12:39, 20 September 2023 (UTC)

: Not done: Percent seems to be consistent with the MOS of the article. See WP:MOS. Seawolf35 (talk) 15:44, 20 September 2023 (UTC),

Sorry,  Done Seawolf35 (talk) 15:45, 20 September 2023 (UTC)

Historians only guess the death toll

It needs to be pointed out that historians are only guessing the death toll in the lead paragraph. 172.79.188.66 (talk) 02:02, 23 April 2023 (UTC)

It says 75-200 million. That's pretty clearly a guess. -- asilvering (talk) 02:06, 23 April 2023 (UTC)

New work on pandemic death tolls from Our World In Data has a better professional estimate of 50 million deaths from the Black Death, so I've updated the estimate and added sourcing. Mcenedella (talk)(contribs) 12:44, 13 December 2023 (UTC)

I don't believe Our World in Data conducts studies, they are an aggregator and interpreter of statistics whose goal is "to make the knowledge on the big problems accessible and understandable". There are several studies cited in the article already that provide a good basis for revising the number down based principally on the estimate of population lost. CompleteAnonymity (talk) 12:48, 13 December 2023 (UTC)

I've updated the numbers in the lead and the sources to cite the academic sources and reflect the numbers there not newspapers. But there is need to rationalise further in the article as well and be clear which sources estimates come from AlasdairEdits (talk) 17:56, 13 December 2023 (UTC)

I've added few more sources. There is also this blog post with source analysis, and though it's not a reliable source for WP, it's still interesting:

The first sentence of Wikipedia’s Black Death article claimed a death toll of “75 to 200 million people,” citing three news articles 62 which themselves provide no sources for their estimates. 63 Searches for academic literature 64 turned up many academic sources using the 200 million figure, but nearly all of them (that I checked) made clear that the 200 million figure sums deaths across multiple (usually, “three”) different pandemics caused by Yersinia pestis, occurring centuries apart. 65 Moreover, for the academic sources providing a citation for the 200 million figure that I was able to track down, 66 the reference trail in all cases led eventually to a single source: an article from the May 1988 issue of National Geographic by photojournalist Nicole Duplaix, titled “Fleas: The Lethal Leapers” (pp. 672-694). That article, too, is clear that the 200 million figure refers not to deaths for the “Black Death” of the 1340s-50s, but to deaths summed across multiple pandemics. 67 Moreover, this number is highly suspect, given that Duplaix provides no source or analysis for it.

Artem.G (talk) 19:37, 13 December 2023 (UTC)

I will say that, while I'm happy Max Roser used his platform to draw attention to this error in estimation (including my attention), I'm disapointed that an information aggregator such as Roser who is trying to "make the knowledge on the big problems accessible and understandable" would notice this problem with the article, and, instead of correcting it, use it as an oppurtunity to discredit Wikipedia while promoting their own site. Not very much in the spirit of working together to make knowledge accessible.

I think I should note also that Our World In Data (which is made up of several employees of Oxford University, and funded by the Gates Foundation) is also worthy of such scrutiny. Sadly, while Wikipedia is collaborative and somewhat democratic, Our World In Data & Roser present their narrow viewpoint authoritatively, without any feedback mechanisms. CompleteAnonymity (talk) 12:45, 12 January 2024 (UTC)

I think many of the above points are valid. Since adjusting the death estimate to be consistent with modern scholarship a month ago, the prose in the lead paragraph has drifted a bit. I've cleaned up and streamlined that prose.

I've also removed some assertions that are not supported by the linked sources (such as the reference to human-to-human transmission, which is in fact contradicted in the sole cited source in the pneumonic plague article (Benedictow’s The Black Death).

I think scholars are hesitant to update Wikipedia because the revert and flame wars sometimes feel like a lot of hassle to someone who is not a regular participant. Mcenedella (talk)(contribs) 19:30, 25 January 2024 (UTC)

References