Bicester and Woodstock is a constituency of the House of Commons in the UK Parliament.[2] After the completion of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, it will first be contested at the 2024 general election.
Bicester & Woodstock | |
---|---|
County constituency for the House of Commons | |
![]() Boundaries since 2024 | |
![]() Boundary of Bicester and Woodstock in South East England | |
County | Oxfordshire |
Electorate | 70,389 (2020) [1] |
Major settlements | Bicester, Kidlington and Woodstock |
Current constituency | |
Created | 2024 |
Member of Parliament | TBC (TBC) |
Seats | One |
Created from | Banbury (part), Henley (part), Oxford West & Abingdon (part), Witney (part) |
Boundaries
editThe constituency is composed of the following (as they existed on 1 December 2020):
- The District of Cherwell wards of: Bicester East; Bicester North & Caversfield; Bicester South & Ambrosden; Bicester West; Fringford & Heyfords; Kidlington East; Kidlington West; Launton & Otmoor.
- The District of West Oxfordshire wards of: Eynsham and Cassington; Freeland and Hanborough; North Leigh; Stonesfield and Tackley; Woodstock and Bladon.[3]
It comprises the following areas:
- The town of Bicester, transferred from Banbury
- The large village of Kidlington, transferred from Oxford West and Abingdon
- Largely rural areas, including the small market town of Woodstock, transferred from Witney
- A small rural area transferred from Henley
Predictions
editThere have been various MRP national prediction models, which have given the results shown below for Bicester & Woodstock. The accuracy of these for individual seat predictions may be debated, especially where boundary changes have been significant.[4]
Since Bicester and Woodstock is a new constituency, these models conventionally use a notional baseline result of the 2019 election on the 2024 boundaries, jointly commissioned by the Press Association and major broadcasters from the psephologists Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings.[5]
Date | Model | CON | LAB | LDEM | BRX | GRN | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 Dec 2019 | Elections Centre | 54% | 17% | 27% | 0% | 2% | [6] |
Date | Model | CON | LAB | LDEM | REF | GRN | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Jan 2024 | YouGov | 29% | 20% | 37% | 7% | 5% | [7][8] |
15 Jan 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 30% | 28% | 25% | 10% | 6% | [9] |
15 Feb 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 30% | 30% | 25% | 10% | 5% | [10] |
28 March 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 28% | 30% | 26% | 12% | 4% | [11] |
30 March 2024 | Survation | 32% | 31% | 23% | 9% | 4% | [12] |
3 April 2024 | YouGov | 31% | 24% | 26% | 12% | 6% | [13] |
27 April 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 27% | 31% | 25% | 12% | 4% | [14] |
21 May 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 28% | 31% | 24% | 11% | 5% | [15] |
25 May 2024 | Economist | 32% | 30% | 19% | 8% | 7% | [16] |
25 May 2024 | New Statesman | 33% | 19% | 35% | 8% | 6% | [17] |
29 May 2024 | Financial Times | 31% | 26% | 25% | 11% | 6% | [18] |
31 May 2024 | UK Polling Report | 32% | 30% | 24% | 9% | 5% | [19] |
31 May 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 32% | 23% | 32% | 8% | 4% | [20] |
3 June 2024 | YouGov | 32% | 22% | 32% | 9% | 4% | [21] |
3 June 2024 | More In Common | 36% | 24% | 27% | 6% | 6% | [22] |
4 June 2024 | Survation | 28% | 29% | 24% | 12% | 4% | [23] |
7 June 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 32% | 22% | 32% | 10% | 4% | [24] |
7 June 2024 | New Statesman | 31% | 21% | 34% | 9% | 6% | [25] |
11 June 2024 | YouGov | 32% | 22% | 33% | 9% | 4% | [26] |
14 June 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 31% | 21% | 33% | 11% | 3% | [27] |
14 June 2024 | UK Polling Report | 29% | 29% | 25% | 12% | 5% | [28] |
14 June 2024 | Economist | 31% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 7% | [29] |
15 Jun 2024 | Survation | 24% | 28% | 28% | 11% | 6% | [30] |
16 June 2024 | New Statesman | 32% | 20% | 34% | 9% | 6% | [31] |
18 June 2024 | Ipsos | 34% | 30% | 22% | 9% | 4% | [32] |
19 June 2024 | YouGov | 29% | 16% | 33% | 17% | 4% | [33] |
19 June 2024 | More in Common | 33% | 15% | 40% | 6% | 5% | [34] |
19 June 2024 | Savanta | 30% | 28% | 28% | 11% | 4% | [35] |
20 June 2024 | Economist | 30% | 29% | 20% | 10% | 8% | [36] |
21 June 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 30% | 19% | 33% | 13% | 4% | [37] |
24 June 2024 | UK Polling Report | 27% | 27% | 26% | 15% | 5% | [38] |
24 June 2024 | Focaldata | 31% | 20% | 30% | 14% | 5% | [39] |
26 June 2024 | Economist / WeThink MRP | 31% | 29% | 25% | 9% | 5% | [40] |
26 June 2024 | Electoral Calculus | 22% | 14% | 42% | 16% | 5% | [41] |
27 June 2024 | Economist / WeThink (constituency poll) | 30% | 31% | 31% | 3% | 3% | [42] |
30 June 2024 | JL Partners / Sunday Times | 26% | 24% | 24% | 20% | 5% | [43] |
Members of Parliament
editBanbury, Witney, Oxford West & Abingdon and Henley prior to 2024
Election | Member | Party | |
---|---|---|---|
2024 | TBC | TBC |
Elections
editElections in the 2020s
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SDP | Tim Funnell | ||||
Conservative | Rupert Harrison | ||||
Green | Ian Middleton | ||||
Liberal Democrats | Calum Miller | ||||
Labour | Veronica Oakeshott | ||||
Reform UK | Augustine Obodo | ||||
Majority | |||||
Turnout |
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – South East". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 13 June 2024.
- ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume one: Report – South East | Boundary Commission for England". boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk. Retrieved 2023-07-15.
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023". Schedule 1 Part 6 South East region.
- ^ "MRP: what it is and why it may, or may not, be right at the next general election". The Week In Polls. 2023-08-23. Retrieved 2024-05-29.
- ^ "Guide to the new Parliamentary Constituencies 2024" (PDF). Elections Centre. January 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- ^ "Notional election for the constituency of Bicester and Woodstock on 12 December 2019". parliament.uk. UK Parliament. January 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- ^ "YouGov MRP shows Labour would win 1997-style landslide if election were held today". YouGov. 15 January 2024. Retrieved 15 January 2024.
- ^ "Searchable tool: How would your constituency vote in an election tomorrow?". Telegraph Media Group. 14 January 2024. Retrieved 15 January 2024.
- ^ "Electoral Calculus January 2024". Electoral Calculus. Retrieved 15 January 2024.
- ^ "Electoral Calculus 14 Feb 2024". Retrieved 14 Feb 2024.
- ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-04-07.
- ^ "What We Can Learn From Our Latest MRP (and what we can't)". Survation. 2024-03-31. Retrieved 2024-04-07.
- ^ "YouGov MRP – Labour now projected to win over 400 seats | YouGov". yougov.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-04-07.
- ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-05-08.
- ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-05-24.
- ^ "The Economist's UK general election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved 2024-05-25.
- ^ "Who will win the 2024 UK general election?The definitive forecast model - how the country will vote according to Britain Predicts". The New Statesman. 23 May 2024. Retrieved 2024-05-29.
- ^ "Predict the UK general election result". ig.in.ft.com. 2024-05-29. Retrieved 2024-05-29.(subscription required)
- ^ "Bicester and Woodstock | E14001090". pollingreport.uk. Retrieved 2024-05-31.
- ^ "Bicester and Woodstock: Overview". Retrieved 31 May 2024.
- ^ "First YouGov MRP of 2024 general election shows Labour on track to beat 1997 landslide". Retrieved 3 June 2024.
- ^ "Labour on course to win a majority of over 100". Retrieved 4 June 2024.
- ^ "Survation MRP: Labour Set for Record Breaking Majority". Survation. 2024-06-04. Retrieved 2024-06-05.
- ^ "Bicester and Woodstock: Overview". Retrieved 7 June 2024.
- ^ "Who will win the 2024 UK general election?". 23 May 2024. Retrieved 11 June 2024.
- ^ "UK General Election 2024". YouGov. Retrieved 12 June 2024.
- ^ "Bicester and Woodstock: Overview". Retrieved 14 June 2024.
- ^ "Bicester and Woodstock | E14001090". pollingreport.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-14.
- ^ "The Economist's UK general election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved 2024-06-14.
- ^ "MRP Update: First MRP Since Farage's Return". Survation. 2024-06-15. Retrieved 2024-06-15.
- ^ "Who will win the 2024 UK general election?". 23 May 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
- ^ "Ipsos MRP 18 June". 18 June 2024.
- ^ "Second YouGov 2024 election MRP shows Conservatives on lowest seat total in history | YouGov". yougov.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
- ^ "Labour on course to win a majority of over 100". www.moreincommon.org.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
- ^ "MRP Model – Daily Telegraph – 19 June 2024 - Savanta". savanta.com. 2024-06-19. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
- ^ "UK general election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved 2024-06-20.
- ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-21.
- ^ "Bicester and Woodstock | E14001090". pollingreport.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-24.
- ^ "Focaldata / Prolific UK General Election MRP". Focaldata. Retrieved 2024-06-24.
- ^ "We Think | WeThink MRP: Historic low for the Tories?". wethink.netlify.app. 2024-06-26. Retrieved 2024-06-26.
- ^ "New Seat Details - Bicester and Woodstock". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 2024-06-27.
- ^ "WeThink on X: Following swiftly after our MRP release yesterday, it's the 3rd constituency poll for @TheEconomist, this time Bicester & Woodstock". Retrieved 2024-06-28.
- ^ "First J.L. Partners SRP Model Shows Labour On Course For A Landslide". JLP. Retrieved 2024-06-30.
- ^ Stewart, Gordon (7 June 2024). "Election of a Member of Parliament for Bicester and Woodstock" (PDF). Retrieved 7 June 2024 – via Cherwell District Council.
External links
edit- Bicester and Woodstock UK Parliament constituency (boundaries from June 2024) at MapIt UK
51°52′N 1°15′W / 51.87°N 1.25°W