The 2024 general election was held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Thirty-two seats were up for election in Wales as the general election occurred after the recently completed boundary review took effect. The Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, gaining six seats for a total of 27. Both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats made gains, taking them to four seats and one seat respectively. The Conservatives lost all thirteen seats they had held previously, leaving the party without Westminster representation from Wales for the first time since 2005.
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All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 56.0%  10.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Results by constituency
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Election
editDate of the election
editOn 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.[1]
Number of Welsh MPs
edit
The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, mandated the number of seats in Wales be reduced from 40 to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coterminous with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales was responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it was required to abide by this total.
The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021.[2] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.[3] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies.[4] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November.[5] and came into force on 29 November.[6]
Constituencies
edit- Aberafan Maesteg
- Alyn and Deeside
- Bangor Aberconwy
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
- Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
- Bridgend
- Caerfyrddin
- Caerphilly
- Cardiff East
- Cardiff North
- Cardiff South and Penarth
- Cardiff West
- Ceredigion Preseli
- Clwyd East
- Clwyd North
- Dwyfor Meirionnydd
- Gower
- Llanelli
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
- Mid and South Pembrokeshire
- Monmouthshire
- Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr
- Neath and Swansea East
- Newport East
- Newport West and Islwyn
- Pontypridd
- Rhondda and Ogmore
- Swansea West
- Torfaen
- Vale of Glamorgan
- Wrexham
- Ynys Môn
Members not standing for re-election
edit| MP | Constituency | First elected | Party | Date announced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne David | Caerphilly | 2001 | Labour | 11 February 2022[7] | |
| Hywel Williams | Arfon | 2001 | Plaid Cymru | 11 November 2022[8] | |
| Beth Winter | Cynon Valley[a] | 2019 | Labour | 7 June 2023[9] | |
| David Jones | Clwyd West | 2005 | Conservative | 20 September 2023[10] | |
| Jamie Wallis | Bridgend | 2019 | Conservative | 22 October 2023[11] | |
| Christina Rees | Neath | 2015 | Labour | 1 February 2024[12] | |
| Kevin Brennan | Cardiff West | 2001 | Labour | 27 May 2024[13] | |
| Geraint Davies | Swansea West | 1997[b] | Labour[c] | 28 May 2024[14] | |
| Jonathan Edwards | Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | 2010 | Plaid Cymru[d] | 28 May 2024[15] | |
Candidates
edit| Affiliation | Candidates[16] | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 32 | |
| Green Party of England and Wales | 32 | |
| Labour Party | 32 | |
| Liberal Democrats | 32 | |
| Plaid Cymru | 32 | |
| Reform UK | 31 | |
| Independents | 17 (15 constituencies) | |
| Heritage Party | 6 | |
| Workers Party of Britain | 4 | |
| Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party | 3 | |
| Co-operative Party | 3[17] | |
| Official Monster Raving Loony Party | 2 | |
| Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | 2 | |
| Women's Equality Party | 2 | |
| Climate Party | 1 | |
| Communist Party of Britain | 1 | |
| Libertarian Party (UK) | 1 | |
| Propel | 1 | |
| Socialist Labour Party (UK) | 1 | |
| True and Fair Party | 1 | |
| UK Independence Party | 1 | |
| Total | 235 | |
Results
editBy affiliation
edit| Affiliation[18] | Candidates | Seats | Aggregate votes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Gains | Losses | Net | Of all (%) | Total | Of all (%) | Difference | |||
| Labour | 32 | 27 | +8 | 0 |  9
|
84.4 | 487,636 | 37.5 | 3.9
| |
| Conservative | 32 | 0 | 0 | −12 | 12
|
0.0 | 240,003 | 18.2 | 17.9
| |
| Reform UK | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 
|
0.0 | 223,018 | 16.9 | 11.5
| |
| Plaid Cymru | 32 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 2
|
12.5 | 194,811 | 14.8 | 4.9
| |
| Liberal Democrats | 32 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 1
|
3.1 | 85,911 | 6.5 | 0.5
| |
| Green | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
0.0 | 61,662 | 4.7 | 3.7
| |
| Independent | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
0.0 | 17,593 | 1.3 | 0.9
| |
| Workers Party | 4 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 1,545 | 0.1 | — | |||
| Abolish | 3 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 1,521 | 0.1 | — | |||
| Propel | 1 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 1,041 | 0.1 | — | |||
| Heritage | 6 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 926 | 0.1 | — | |||
| UKIP | 1 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 600 | 0.0 | — | |||
| Women's Equality | 2 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 536 | 0.0 | — | |||
| TUSC | 2 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 532 | 0.0 | — | |||
| Communist | 1 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 521 | 0.0 | — | |||
| Libertarian | 1 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 439 | 0.0 | — | |||
| Socialist Labour | 1 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 424 | 0.0 | — | |||
| Monster Raving Loony | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
0.0 | 393 | 0.0 |
| |
| True & Fair | 1 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 255 | 0.0 | — | |||
| Climate | 1 | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0 | 104 | 0.0 | — | |||
| Total | 235 | 32 | — |
|
1,319,076 | 56.0 | ||||
By constituency
edit| Constituency | 2019 seat |
2024 seat | Votes | Turnout | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affiliate | Candidate | Votes | Share | Margin | Lab. | Con. | Ref. | PC | Lib. Dems | Green | Other | Total | |||||
| Aberafan Maesteg | Lab | Lab | Stephen Kinnock | 17,838 | 49.9% | 10,354 | 17,838 | 2,903 | 7,484 | 4,719 | 916 | 1,094 | 801 | 35,755 | 49.3% | ||
| Alyn and Deeside | Lab | Lab | Mark Tami | 18,395 | 42.4% | 8,794 | 18,395 | 7,892 | 9,601 | 1,938 | 2,065 | 1,926 | 1,575 | 43,392 | 57.3% | ||
| Bangor Aberconwy | Con | Lab | Claire Hughes | 14,008 | 33.6% | 4,896 | 14,008 | 9,036 | 6,091 | 9,112 | 1,524 | 1,361 | 528 | 41,660 | 60.0% | ||
| Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Lab | Lab | Nick Smith | 16,027 | 53.6% | 12,183 | 16,027 | 3,776 | — | 3,844 | 1,268 | 1,719 | 3,288 | 29,922 | 43.0% | ||
| Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | Con | LD | David Chadwick | 13,736 | 29.5% | 1,472 | 9,904 | 12,264 | 6,567 | 2,280 | 13,736 | 1,188 | 609 | 46,548 | 64.0% | ||
| Bridgend | Con | Lab | Chris Elmore | 16,516 | 39.9% | 8,595 | 16,516 | 6,764 | 7,921 | 3,629 | 1,446 | 1,760 | 3,338 | 41,482 | 56.7% | ||
| Caerfyrddin | Con | PC | Ann Davies | 15,520 | 34.0% | 4,505 | 10,985 | 8,825 | 6,944 | 15,520 | 1,461 | 1,371 | 498 | 45,604 | 62.0% | ||
| Caerphilly | Lab | Lab | Chris Evans | 14,538 | 38.0% | 6,419 | 14,538 | 4,385 | 7,754 | 8,119 | 1,788 | 1,650 | — | 38,234 | 52.6% | ||
| Cardiff East | Lab | Lab | Jo Stevens | 15,833 | 40.5% | 9,097 | 15,833 | 3,913 | 4,980 | 3,550 | 6,736 | 3,916 | 195 | 39,123 | 53.7% | ||
| Cardiff North | Lab | Lab | Anna McMorrin | 20,849 | 43.9% | 11,207 | 20,849 | 9,642 | 5,985 | 4,669 | 3,168 | 3,160 | — | 47,473 | 66.5% | ||
| Cardiff South and Penarth | Lab | Lab | Stephen Doughty | 17,428 | 44.5% | 11,767 | 17,428 | 5,459 | 4,493 | 3,227 | 2,908 | 5,661 | — | 39,176 | 54.0% | ||
| Cardiff West | Lab | Lab | Alex Barros-Curtis | 16,442 | 36.7% | 7,019 | 16,442 | 6,835 | 5,626 | 9,423 | 1,921 | 3,157 | 1,353 | 44,757 | 59.3% | ||
| Ceredigion Preseli | PC | PC | Ben Lake | 21,738 | 46.9% | 14,789 | 5,386 | 4,763 | 5,374 | 21,738 | 6,949 | 1,864 | 228 | 46,302 | 61.2% | ||
| Clwyd East | Con | Lab | Becky Gittins | 18,484 | 38.7% | 4,622 | 18,484 | 13,862 | 7,626 | 3,733 | 1,859 | 1,659 | 599 | 47,822 | 62.4% | ||
| Clwyd North | Con | Lab | Gill German | 14,794 | 35.5% | 1,196 | 14,794 | 13,598 | 7,000 | 3,159 | 1,685 | 1,391 | — | 41,627 | 55.5% | ||
| Dwyfor Meirionnydd | PC | PC | Liz Saville Roberts | 21,788 | 53.9% | 15,876 | 5,912 | 4,712 | 4,857 | 21,788 | 1,381 | 1,448 | 297 | 40,395 | 55.3% | ||
| Gower | Lab | Lab | Tonia Antoniazzi | 20,480 | 43.4% | 11,567 | 20,480 | 8,913 | 8,530 | 3,942 | 2,593 | 2,488 | 283 | 47,229 | 62.0% | ||
| Llanelli | Lab | Lab | Nia Griffith | 12,751 | 31.3% | 1,504 | 12,751 | 4,275 | 11,247 | 9,511 | 1,254 | 1,106 | 600 | 40,744 | 57.0% | ||
| Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Lab | Lab | Gerald Jones | 15,791 | 44.8% | 7,447 | 15,791 | 2,687 | 8,344 | 4,768 | 1,276 | 1,231 | 1,118 | 35,215 | 47.3% | ||
| Mid and South Pembrokeshire | Con | Lab | Henry Tufnell | 16,505 | 35.4% | 1,878 | 16,505 | 14,627 | 7,828 | 2,962 | 2,372 | 1,654 | 681 | 46,629 | 59.2% | ||
| Monmouthshire | Con | Lab | Catherine Fookes | 21,010 | 41.3% | 3,338 | 21,010 | 17,672 | 5,438 | 1,273 | 2,279 | 2,357 | 815 | 50,844 | 68.0% | ||
| Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr | Con | Lab | Steve Witherden | 12,709 | 29.4% | 3,815 | 12,709 | 7,775 | 8,894 | 5,667 | 6,470 | 1,744 | — | 43,259 | 58.4% | ||
| Neath and Swansea East | Lab | Lab | Carolyn Harris | 16,797 | 41.8% | 6,627 | 16,797 | 3,765 | 10,170 | 5,350 | 2,344 | 1,711 | — | 40,137 | 52.5% | ||
| Newport East | Lab | Lab | Jessica Morden | 16,370 | 42.5% | 9,009 | 16,370 | 6,487 | 7,361 | 2,239 | 2,045 | 2,092 | 1,937 | 38,531 | 50.0% | ||
| Newport West and Islwyn | Lab | Lab | Ruth Jones | 17,409 | 41.5% | 8,868 | 17,409 | 6,710 | 8,541 | 3,529 | 2,087 | 2,078 | 1,597 | 41,951 | 55.4% | ||
| Pontypridd | Lab | Lab | Alex Davies-Jones | 16,225 | 41.2% | 8,402 | 16,225 | 3,775 | 7,823 | 5,275 | 1,606 | 1,865 | 2,809 | 39,378 | 52.5% | ||
| Rhondda and Ogmore | Lab | Lab | Chris Bryant | 17,118 | 47.8% | 7,790 | 17,118 | 2,050 | 9,328 | 5,198 | 935 | 1,177 | — | 35,806 | 48.1% | ||
| Swansea West | Lab | Lab | Torsten Bell | 14,761 | 41.4% | 8,515 | 14,761 | 3,536 | 6,246 | 4,105 | 4,367 | 2,305 | 337 | 35,657 | 48.0% | ||
| Torfaen | Lab | Lab | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 15,176 | 42.5% | 7,322 | 15,176 | 5,737 | 7,854 | 2,571 | 1,644 | 1,705 | 1,018 | 35,705 | 49.9% | ||
| Vale of Glamorgan | Con | Lab | Kanishka Narayan | 17,740 | 38.7% | 4,216 | 17,740 | 13,524 | 6,973 | 3,245 | 1,612 | 1,881 | 851 | 45,826 | 61.6% | ||
| Wrexham | Con | Lab | Andrew Ranger | 15,836 | 39.2% | 5,948 | 15,836 | 9,888 | 6,915 | 4,138 | 1,777 | 1,339 | 480 | 40,373 | 57.5% | ||
| Ynys Môn | Con | PC | Llinos Medi | 10,590 | 32.5% | 637 | 7,619 | 9,953 | 3,223 | 10,590 | 439 | 604 | 200 | 32,628 | 61.4% | ||
| All constituencies | 487,636 | 240,003 | 223,018 | 194,811 | 85,911 | 61,662 | 35,919 | 1,319,076 | 56.0% | ||||||||
| 37.0% | 18.2% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 100.0% | ||||||||||
| Seats | |||||||||||||||||
| 27 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 32 | ||||||||||
| 84% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 3.2% | 0% | 0% | 100.0% | ||||||||||
By affiliate share
editCandidates by constituency
editCandidates in bold won their respective constituency election.
| Constituency | Conservative | Labour | Liberal Democrats | Reform UK | Green Party | Plaid Cymru | Others | Incumbent | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberafan Maesteg | Abigail Mainon | Stephen Kinnock | Justin Griffiths | Mark Griffiths | Nigel Hill | Colin Deere |
|
Labour | Stephen Kinnock (Aberavon) | |
| Alyn and Deeside | Jeremy Kent | Mark Tami | Richard Marbrow | Vicky Roskams | Karl Macnaughton | Jack Morris | Edwin Duggan (Independent) | Labour | Mark Tami | |
| Bangor Aberconwy | Robin Millar | Claire Hughes | Rachael Roberts | John Clark | Petra Haig | Catrin Wager |
|
Conservative | Robin Millar (Aberconwy) | |
| Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Hannah Jarvis | Nick Smith | Jackie Charlton | Anne Baker | Niamh Salkeld |
|
Labour | Nick Smith (Blaenau Gwent) | ||
| Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | Fay Jones | Matthew Dorrance | David Chadwick | Adam Hill | Amerjit Kaur-Dhaliwal | Emily Durrant-Munro |
|
Conservative | Fay Jones (Brecon and Radnorshire) | |
| Bridgend | Anita Boateng | Chris Elmore | Claire Waller | Caroline Jones | Debra Cooper | Iolo Caudy | Mark John (Independent) | Conservative | Jamie Wallis | |
| Labour | Chris Elmore (Ogmore) | |||||||||
| Caerfyrddin | Simon Hart | Martha O'Neil | Nick Beckett | Bernard Holton | Will Beasley | Ann Davies |
|
Independent (formerly Plaid Cymru) | Jonathan Edwards (Carmarthen East and Dinefwr) | |
| Caerphilly | Brandon Gorman | Chris Evans[e] | Steve Aicheler | Joshua Kim | Mark Thomas | Lindsay Whittle[f] | Labour | Wayne David | ||
| Cardiff East | Beatrice Brandon | Jo Stevens | Rodney Berman | Lee Canning | Sam Coates | Cadewyn Skelley | John Williams (TUSC) | Labour | Jo Stevens (Cardiff Central) | |
| Cardiff North | Joel Williams | Anna McMorrin | Irfan Latif | Lawrence Gwynn | Meg Shepherd-Foster | Malcolm Phillips | Labour | Anna McMorrin | ||
| Cardiff South and Penarth | Ellis Smith | Stephen Doughty | Alex Wilson | Simon Llewellyn | Anthony Slaughter | withdrew support from their nominated candidate | Sharifah Rahman (nominated as Plaid Cymru) | Labour | Stephen Doughty | |
| Cardiff West | James Hamblin | Alex Barros-Curtis | Manda Rigby | Peter Hopkins | Jess Ryan | Kiera Marshall |
|
Labour | Kevin Brennan | |
| Ceredigion Preseli | Aled Thomas | Jackie Jones[g] | Mark Williams[h] | Karl Pollard | Tomos Barlow | Ben Lake | Taghrid Al-Mawed (Workers) | Plaid Cymru | Ben Lake (Ceredigion) | |
| Clwyd East | James Davies | Becky Gittins | Alec Dauncey | Kirsty Walmsley | Lee Lavery | Paul Penlington | Rob Roberts (Independent) | Independent (formerly Conservative) | Rob Roberts (Delyn) | |
| Clwyd North | Darren Millar | Gill German | David Wilkins | Jamie Orange | Martyn Hogg | Paul Rowlinson | Conservative | David Jones (Clwyd West) | ||
| Conservative | James Davies (Vale of Clwyd) | |||||||||
| Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Tomos Day | Joanna Stallard | Phoebe Jenkins | Lucy Murphy | Karl Drinkwater | Liz Saville Roberts | Joan Ginsberg (Heritage) | Plaid Cymru | Liz Saville Roberts | |
| Plaid Cymru | Hywel Williams (Arfon) | |||||||||
| Gower | Marc Jenkins | Tonia Antoniazzi | Franck Banza | Catrin Thomas | Chris Evans | Kieran Pritchard | Wayne Erasmus (Independent) | Labour | Tonia Antoniazzi | |
| Llanelli | Charlie Evans | Nia Griffith | Chris Passmore | Gareth Beer | Karen Laurence | Rhodri Davies | Stan Robinson (UKIP) | Labour | Nia Griffith | |
| Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Amanda Jenner | Gerald Jones | Jade Smith | Gareth Thomas | David Griffin | Francis Whitefoot |
|
Labour | Gerald Jones (Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney) | |
| Labour | Beth Winter[i] (Cynon Valley) | |||||||||
| Mid and South Pembrokeshire | Stephen Crabb | Henry Tufnell | Alistair Cameron | Stuart Marchant | James Purchase | Cris Tomos |
|
Conservative | Simon Hart (Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire) | |
| Conservative | Stephen Crabb (Preseli Pembrokeshire) | |||||||||
| Monmouthshire | David TC Davies | Catherine Fookes | William Powell | Max Windsor-Peplow | Ian Chandler | Ioan Bellin |
|
Conservative | David TC Davies (Monmouth) | |
| Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr | withdrew support from their nominated candidate | Steve Witherden | Glyn Preston | Oliver Lewis | Jeremy Brignell-Thorp | Elwyn Vaughan | Craig Williams (nominated as Conservative) | Conservative | Craig Williams (Montgomeryshire) | |
| Conservative | Simon Baynes[j] (Clwyd South) | |||||||||
| Neath and Swansea East | Samantha Chohan | Carolyn Harris[k] | Helen Clarke | Dai Richards | Jan Dowden | Andrew Jenkins | Labour | Christina Rees (Neath) | ||
| Newport East | Rachel Buckler | Jessica Morden | John Miller | Tommy Short | Lauren James | Jonathan Clark |
|
Labour | Jessica Morden | |
| Newport West and Islwyn | Nick Jones | Ruth Jones | Mike Hamilton | Paul Taylor | Kerry Vosper | Brandon Ham | George Etheridge (Independent) | Labour | Chris Evans (Islwyn) | |
| Labour | Ruth Jones (Newport West) | |||||||||
| Pontypridd | Jack Robson | Alex Davies-Jones | David Mathias | Steve Bayliss | Angela Karadog | Wil Rees |
|
Labour | Alex Davies-Jones | |
| Rhondda and Ogmore | Adam Robinson | Chris Bryant | Gerald Francis | Darren James | Christine Glossop | Owen Cutler | Labour | Chris Bryant (Rhondda) | ||
| Swansea West | Tara-Jane Sutcliffe | Torsten Bell | Michael O'Carroll | Patrick Benham-Crosswell | Peter Jones | Gwyn Williams | Gareth Bromhall (TUSC) | Independent (formerly Labour) | Geraint Davies | |
| Labour | Carolyn Harris (Swansea East) | |||||||||
| Torfaen | Nathan Edmunds | Nick Thomas-Symonds | Brendan Roberts | Ian Williams | Philip Davies | Matthew Jones |
|
Labour | Nick Thomas-Symonds | |
| Vale of Glamorgan | Alun Cairns | Kanishka Narayan | Steven Rajam | Toby Rhodes-Matthews | Lynden Mack | Ian Johnson |
|
Conservative | Alun Cairns | |
| Wrexham | Sarah Atherton | Andrew Ranger | Tim Sly | Charles Dodman | Tim Morgan | Becca Martin | Paul Ashton (Abolish) | Conservative | Sarah Atherton | |
| Ynys Môn | Virginia Crosbie | Ieuan Môn Williams | Leena Farhat | Emmett Jenner | Martin Schwaller | Llinos Medi |
|
Conservative | Virginia Crosbie | |
Opinion polling
editThe dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.
Poll results
edit.svg)
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab. | Con. | Plaid Cymru | Lib. Dems | Ref. | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election[19] | – | 37.0% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 16.9% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 18.8 | |
| 27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,072 | 40% | 16% | 14% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 2% | 24 |
| 24–28 Jun 2024 | More in Common | N/A | 848 | 42% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 20 |
| 19–20 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 930 | 46% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 29 |
| 14–18 Jun 2024 | Savanta | N/A | 1,026 | 49% | 19% | 12% | 5% | 12% | 3% | - | 30 |
| 5–7 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 960 | 45% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 27 |
| 30 May – 3 Jun 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,066 | 45% | 18% | 12% | 5% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 27 |
| 22–27 May 2024 | More in Common | N/A | 805 | 45% | 21% | 13% | 4% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 24 |
| 22 May 2024 | Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024 | ||||||||||
| 18–19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 900 | 43% | 19% | 14% | 3% | 15% | 6% | 1% | 24 |
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 40% | 18% | 14% | 6% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 22 |
| 23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 49% | 16% | 10% | 5% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 33 |
| 20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[20] | ||||||||||
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 45% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 23 |
| 24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 48% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 28 |
| 10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 47% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 25 |
| 4–7 Dec 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,004 | 42% | 20% | 15% | 7% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 22 |
| 12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 44% | 24% | 13% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 20 |
| 14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 46% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 20 |
| 16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 44% | 22% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 22 |
| 1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 50% | 19% | 12% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 31 |
| 13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 17 |
| 14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 46% | 24% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 22 |
| 17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 43% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 21 |
| 16 Jun 2023 | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[21] | ||||||||||
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 49% | 19% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 30 |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 43% | 23% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 20 |
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 20 |
| 17–23 Feb 2023 | YouGov | WalesOnline | 1,083 | 53% | 19% | 12% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 34 |
| 3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 49% | 20% | 14% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 29 |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 51% | 18% | 13% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 33 |
| 30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 | Survation | 38 Degrees | 6,012 | 51% | 24% | 13% | 6% | – | – | 6% | 27 |
| 20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 46% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 23 |
| 12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 15 |
| 5 May 2022 | Local elections held in Wales[22] | ||||||||||
| 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 15 |
| 13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,009 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 15 |
| 27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021 | YouGov | ? | ? | 39% | 29% | 17% | 3% | 5% | – | 7% | 10 |
| 13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,071 | 37% | 31% | 15% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 6 |
| 6 May 2021 | Election to the Senedd[23] | ||||||||||
| 2–4 May 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,071 | 37% | 36% | 14% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1 |
| 18–21 Apr 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,142 | 37% | 33% | 18% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4 |
| 9–19 Apr 2021 | Opinium | Sky News | 2,005 | 42% | 33% | 14% | 3% | – | 3% | 5%
UKIP on 3% Other on 2% |
9 |
| 16–19 Mar 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,174 | 35% | 35% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | Tie |
| 24 Jan 2021 | Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[24] | ||||||||||
| 11–14 Jan 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,018 | 36% | 33% | 17% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 3 |
| 26–30 Oct 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,013 | 43% | 32% | 13% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 11 |
| 28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,110 | 41% | 33% | 15% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 8 |
| 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,021 | 39% | 35% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4 |
| 3–7 Apr 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,008 | 34% | 46% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 12 |
| 20–26 Jan 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,037 | 36% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 5 |
| 12 Dec 2019 | 2019 general election | – | 40.9% | 36.1% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 4.8 | |
Seat projections
edit| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Lab. | Con. | PC | LD | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2022 | People Polling | 1,237 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 1 | Based on 40 seats. Seats were reduced to 32. |
| 12 Dec 2019 | 2019 general election | – | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0 |
Analysis
editThe Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, winning 27 of the 32 seats. In addition to defending all of their seats in the south including around Cardiff and Swansea, Labour reversed many of the Conservative gains in 2019, gaining seats such as Bangor Aberconwy, Clwyd East, Clwyd North, Monmouthshire and Wrexham. Labour also won in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, which covers Montgomeryshire, the only area in Wales which had, until 2024, never elected a Labour MP.[25]
Plaid Cymru won four seats, the same as in 2019, however given boundary changes and the reduction in seats this should be counted as two gains. Plaid Cymru defended Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli with significant majorities, gaining the new seat of Caerfyrddin which had been nominally Conservative in 2019, and gained Ynys Môn from the Conservatives. This was the first time Plaid Cymru had won in Ynys Môn since 2001; it was the most marginal seat in Wales with a majority of 637 votes between Plaid and Conservatives, with Labour in close third place. By the share of the vote (14.8 per cent), Plaid Cymru achieved their best ever result in UK general election.[26]
The Liberal Democrats gained one seat in Wales, Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Outside of briefly holding the predecessor seat following the 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, the Liberal Democrats have not had a seat in Wales since losing Ceredigion in 2017.[27]
The Conservative Party lost every seat in Wales, having won fourteen seats in 2019, the first time since 2001 that Wales had no Conservative MPs. This was despite the Conservatives taking 18.2% of the overall vote and outpolling both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats in terms of votes.[28]
Reform UK was the third largest party in terms of votes with 16.9%, nearly as many votes as the Conservatives and more than both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats; it was also a higher vote share than in England.[29] Reform was the runner-up in thirteen constituencies, coming closest to winning in Llanelli.[30] The Green Party was runner-up in one constituency, Cardiff South and Penarth.[31]
See also
edit
Notes
edit- ^ Constituency was abolished and Winter lost the contest to be selected for another seat
- ^ Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central in the 1997 general election, but lost his seat in 2005; elected for Swansea West in 2010.
- ^ Sat as an independent from June 2023.
- ^ Sat as an independent from July 2020.
- ^ Incumbent MP for Islwyn
- ^ Was member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East from 2011 to 2016
- ^ An MEP for Wales (2019–2020)
- ^ Was MP for Ceredigion (2005–2017)
- ^ Was not reselected as a candidate
- ^ Baynes was the incumbent MP for Clwyd South in Wales, and stood in North Shropshire in England.
- ^ Incumbent MP for Swansea East
References
edit- ^ "Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
- ^ Hayward, Will (19 October 2022). "New plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs and create new constituencies". WalesOnline. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
- ^ Masters, Adrian (19 October 2022). "Number of Welsh MPs to be cut from 40 to 32 under new proposals". ITV News. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
- ^ "Wales' new parliamentary constituencies published". Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
- ^ "List of Business - 15th November 2023" (PDF). Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023", legislation.gov.uk, The National Archives, 15 November 2023, SI 2023/1230
- ^ "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
- ^ "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
- ^ "Welsh Labour: Frontbench MP beats left-winger in seat battle". BBC News. 7 June 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
- ^ "David Jones: Former Welsh secretary to retire at next election". BBC News. 20 September 2023.
- ^ "Conservative MP seeking new seat for next election". BBC News. 22 October 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
- ^ Stacey, Kiran (1 February 2024). "Christina Rees readmitted to Labour after apology over bullying claims". The Guardian.
Rees... announced she would not stand again at the next election...
- ^ Brennan, Kevin [@KevinBrennanMP] (27 May 2024). "I'm announcing my decision to stand down as Cardiff West MP after 23 years - thank you to local Labour members and constituents for your friendship and support" (Tweet). Retrieved 28 May 2024 – via Twitter.
- ^ "Geraint Davies says he is 'unable' to stand for Labour because of suspension". Express & Star. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
- ^ "MP cautioned for assaulting his wife confirms he won't be standing for re-election/". Nation.Cymru. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
- ^ "Democracy Club Candidates". Democracy Club Candidates. Democracy Club.
- ^ In electoral pact with the Labour Party, all candidates are also standing for the Labour Party
- ^ "Results of the 2024 General Election in Wales". BBC News.
- ^ "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Archived from the original on 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ "Plaid Cymru: What we know about new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth". 16 June 2023. Archived from the original on 20 November 2023. Retrieved 20 November 2023 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
- ^ "Wales Local Elections 2022". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Archived from the original on 8 May 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
- ^ "Welsh Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 9 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
- ^ "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
- ^ Jones, Matt (5 July 2024). "General Election 2024: Labour win Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr". The Leader. Retrieved 15 August 2024.
- ^ Hayward, Will (5 July 2024). "Why this was an incredible election for Plaid Cymru". Wales Online.
- ^ Compton, Karen (6 July 2024). "Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe election result: Lib Dems take seat off Conservatives". www.shropshirestar.com.
- ^ Morris, Steven (5 July 2024). "Wipeout for Tories in Wales as Labour takes 27 of 32 seats" – via The Guardian.
- ^ D'Urso, Joey [@josephmdurso] (7 July 2024). "Still looking through election results to see if I've missed anything interesting... here's one - Reform got a higher vote share in Wales (16.9%) than England (15.3%)" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 August 2024 – via Twitter.
- ^ Masters, Adrian (5 July 2024). "Questions to be asked despite Welsh Labour wins as Reform votes hint at what's to come". ITV Wales. Retrieved 15 August 2024.
- ^ Jamshidian, Harry (5 July 2024). "Labour's Stephen Doughty holds Cardiff South and Penarth". Penarth Times. Retrieved 15 August 2024.