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2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Bill Lee was re-elected to a second term with 64.9% of the vote, defeating his Democratic challenger Jason Martin. Lee improved on his performance from 2018.

2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout38.61% Decrease[1] 15.85 pp
 
Nominee Bill Lee Jason Martin
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,129,390 572,818
Percentage 64.91% 32.92%
Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Martin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
     No data
Governor before election

Bill Lee
Republican

Elected Governor

Bill Lee
Republican

The primary elections took place on August 4, 2022, with Lee and Martin winning their respective parties' nominations.[2][3]

During the general election, Lee flipped reliably Democratic Haywood County, home to Brownsville. It is one of only two remaining counties in Tennessee, along with Shelby County, with a majority African-American population. Haywood County has not voted Republican on a presidential level since 1972. Martin won only Shelby and Davidson counties. This was the first time in state history that Davidson County did not vote for the winner in a gubernatorial re-election since Tennessee began allowing governors to serve for two consecutive terms.

Voter turnout for the 2022 midterm elections in Tennessee was the lowest it has been in nearly a decade, with only 38.6% of Tennessee's registered voters turning out. This turnout was far below the 2020 presidential election in Tennessee, which saw a turnout of 69.3%.[4][5] The last time turnout was this low in Tennessee was in the 2014 midterm elections. Tennessee's neighboring state Alabama saw a significant drop in voter turnout as well.

Bill Lee was sworn in for his second term on January 21, 2023.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Disqualified

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  • Curtis Carney, business owner[8][7]
  • Tyler Hagerman[7]
  • Patricia Morrison[7]

Declined

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Endorsements

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Bill Lee

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Results

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Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Lee (incumbent) 494,362 100.00%
Total votes 494,362 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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J. B. Smiley Jr.

U.S. representatives

Local officials

Results

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Results by county:
  Martin
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Smiley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Atwater
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jason Martin 101,552 39.39%
Democratic J.B. Smiley Jr. 100,062 38.81%
Democratic Carnita Atwater 56,227 21.81%
Total votes 257,841 100.00%

Independents

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Candidates

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Declared

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Disqualified

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  • Lemichael DaShaun-Wilson[25]
  • Hosie Holomon III[25]
  • Wendell Jackson[25]
  • Jake Johns[25]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Solid R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[27] Solid R July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Safe R June 29, 2022
Politico[29] Solid R April 1, 2022
RCP[30] Safe R January 10, 2022
Fox News[31] Solid R May 12, 2022
538[32] Solid R August 4, 2022
Elections Daily[33] Safe R November 7, 2022

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of July 5, 2022
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bill Lee (R) $3,516,828 $3,316,034 $375,465
Jason Martin (D) $187,424 $495,649 $160,736
Source: Tennessee Registry of Election Finance[34]

Endorsements

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Bill Lee (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Organizations

Jason Martin (D)

Labor unions

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Lee (R) 		Jason
Martin (D) 		Other Undecided
RABA Research[41] July 21–31, 2022 549 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 28% 6% 14%
Hypothetical polling

Bill Lee vs. generic opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Lee (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Vanderbilt University[42] April 26 – May 14, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 39% 12%

Results

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2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election[43]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bill Lee (incumbent) 1,129,390 64.91% +5.55
Democratic Jason Martin 572,818 32.92% −5.63
Independent John Gentry 15,395 0.89% N/A
Independent Constance Every 10,277 0.59% N/A
Independent Deborah Rouse 3,772 0.22% N/A
Independent Rick Tyler 2,380 0.14% N/A
Independent Charles Van Morgan 1,862 0.11% N/A
Independent Basil Marceaux 1,568 0.09% N/A
Independent Alfred O'Neil 1,216 0.07% N/A
Independent Michael Scantland 815 0.05% N/A
Write-In Lemichael D. Wilson 386 0.02% N/A
Write-In Charles Carney 2 0.00% N/A
Write-In Stephen C. Maxwell 1 0.00% N/A
Write-In Kameron Parker Scott 0 0.00% N/A
Total votes 1,739,882 100.00%
Turnout 1,756,397 38.61% −15.85%
Registered electors 4,549,183
Republican hold

By county

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By county
County[44] Bill Lee
Republican		 Jason Martin
Democratic		 Other votes Total
votes
% # % # % #
Anderson 65.80% 14,003 32.11% 6,832 2.09% 445 21,280
Bedford 79.30% 8,401 18.27% 1,936 2.43% 257 10,594
Benton 79.14% 3,247 18.43% 756 2.43% 100 4,103
Bledsoe 86.06% 2,933 12.27% 418 1.67% 57 3,408
Blount 74.41% 29,470 23.52% 9,316 2.07% 820 39,606
Bradley 81.97% 20,655 16.26% 4,096 1.77% 447 25,198
Campbell 81.96% 6,118 15.85% 1,197 2.19% 165 7,550
Cannon 80.74% 3,082 17.50% 668 1.76% 67 3,817
Carroll 80.23% 5,733 17.74% 1,268 2.03% 145 7,146
Carter 80.10% 11,602 17.78% 2,575 2.12% 307 14,484
Cheatham 71.27% 8,309 26.92% 3,138 1.81% 211 11,658
Chester 83.54% 3,756 13.83% 622 2.62% 118 4,496
Claiborne 83.99% 5,652 14.18% 954 1.83% 123 6,729
Clay 80.03% 1,451 16.93% 307 3.04% 55 1,813
Cocke 81.17% 6,618 15.95% 1,300 2.88% 235 8,153
Coffee 77.13% 10,529 20.59% 2,811 2.28% 311 13,651
Crockett 82.30% 2,734 16.23% 539 1.48% 49 3,322
Cumberland 82.38% 17,864 16.16% 3,505 1.46% 315 21,684
Davidson 34.24% 60,900 63.38% 112,708 2.38% 4,229 177,837
Decatur 80.65% 2,713 17.72% 596 1.63% 55 3,364
DeKalb 80.07% 4,118 17.71% 911 2.22% 114 5,143
Dickson 73.73% 9,970 24.07% 3,255 2.20% 297 13,522
Dyer 80.61% 6,791 16.81% 1,416 2.58% 217 8,424
Fayette 75.93% 10,868 22.44% 3,212 1.63% 234 14,314
Fentress 86.69% 4,559 11.12% 585 2.19% 115 5,259
Franklin 75.05% 8,643 22.93% 2,641 2.02% 232 11,516
Gibson 76.61% 9,640 21.21% 2,669 2.18% 274 12,583
Giles 76.23% 5,832 20.68% 1,582 3.09% 237 7,651
Grainger 85.28% 4,588 13.12% 706 1.60% 86 5,380
Greene 79.26% 13,574 17.83% 3,054 2.91% 498 16,951
Grundy 80.82% 2,735 15.90% 538 3.28% 111 3,384
Hamblen 78.86% 10,335 19.01% 2,492 2.13% 279 13,126
Hamilton 60.02% 60,647 38.46% 38,862 1.52% 1,542 101,051
Hancock 84.60% 1,110 12.58% 165 2.82% 37 1,312
Hardeman 62.41% 3,486 35.50% 1,983 2.09% 117 5,586
Hardin 85.93% 5,606 12.45% 812 1.62% 106 6,524
Hawkins 82.42% 11,669 15.56% 2,203 2.02% 286 14,158
Haywood 51.14% 2,011 47.30% 1,860 1.56% 61 3,932
Henderson 85.61% 5,551 12.68% 822 1.71% 111 6,484
Henry 78.52% 6,674 18.87% 1,604 2.61% 222 8,500
Hickman 78.76% 4,577 19.41% 1,128 1.83% 106 5,811
Houston 74.25% 1,837 23.00% 569 2.75% 68 2,474
Humphreys 74.63% 3,344 22.85% 1,024 2.52% 113 4,481
Jackson 75.80% 2,415 19.99% 637 4.21% 134 3,186
Jefferson 81.52% 10,806 15.90% 2,107 2.58% 342 13,255
Johnson 85.05% 4,415 13.25% 688 1.70% 88 5,191
Knox 59.95% 76,880 38.32% 49,140 1.73% 2,222 128,242
Lake 78.69% 912 17.69% 205 3.62% 42 1,159
Lauderdale 69.81% 3,346 27.56% 1,321 2.63% 126 4,793
Lawrence 81.96% 8,276 15.34% 1,549 2.70% 272 10,097
Lewis 80.09% 2,723 18.03% 613 1.88% 64 3,400
Lincoln 81.89% 7,452 15.45% 1,406 2.66% 242 9,100
Loudon 78.15% 15,285 19.43% 3,801 2.42% 473 19,559
Macon 85.13% 4,140 12.03% 585 2.84% 138 4,863
Madison 63.77% 15,357 34.24% 8,246 1.99% 479 24,082
Marion 77.23% 5,947 20.91% 1,610 1.86% 143 7,700
Marshall 75.99% 6,734 21.00% 1,861 3.01% 267 8,862
Maury 72.26% 22,198 25.75% 7,910 1.99% 610 30,718
McMinn 80.35% 10,371 14.39% 1,858 5.26% 679 12,908
McNairy 83.06% 5,864 14.67% 1,036 2.27% 160 7,060
Meigs 82.21% 2,703 14.93% 491 2.86% 94 3,288
Monroe 82.93% 9,830 14.75% 1,748 2.23% 275 11,853
Montgomery 60.22% 24,813 36.38% 14,988 3.40% 1,400 41,201
Moore 83.33% 1,725 14.59% 302 2.08% 43 2,070
Morgan 83.97% 3,844 13.63% 624 2.40% 110 4,578
Obion 82.63% 6,418 15.10% 1,173 2.27% 176 7,767
Overton 78.45% 4,805 18.73% 1,147 2.82% 173 6,125
Perry 80.22% 1,549 17.56% 339 2.22% 43 1,931
Pickett 80.06% 1,542 16.15% 311 3.79% 73 1,929
Polk 83.32% 4,000 14.83% 712 1.85% 89 4,801
Putnam 72.43% 14,217 24.84% 4,875 2.73% 536 19,628
Rhea 85.11% 6,551 13.42% 1,033 1.47% 113 7,697
Roane 75.23% 11,871 21.15% 3,337 3.62% 572 15,780
Robertson 75.97% 14,066 21.86% 4,048 2.17% 400 18,514
Rutherford 62.00% 46,575 35.87% 26,948 2.13% 1,604 75,127
Scott 87.56% 3,394 10.19% 395 2.25% 87 3,876
Sequatchie 83.92% 3,643 13.87% 602 2.21% 96 4,341
Sevier 80.35% 18,314 16.75% 3,818 2.90% 660 22,792
Shelby 43.20% 86,384 54.51% 108,995 2.29% 4,583 199,962
Smith 79.52% 4,205 17.53% 927 2.95% 156 5,288
Stewart 79.55% 3,167 17.76% 707 2.69% 107 3,981
Sullivan 77.90% 32,897 20.78% 8,777 1.32% 556 42,230
Sumner 71.57% 37,466 26.12% 13,672 2.31% 1,209 52,347
Tipton 76.69% 11,487 20.58% 3,083 2.73% 409 14,979
Trousdale 77.39% 1,660 20.93% 449 1.68% 36 2,145
Unicoi 80.66% 4,238 17.32% 910 2.02% 106 5,254
Union 82.90% 3,456 14.99% 625 2.11% 88 4,169
Van Buren 82.35% 1,563 14.70% 279 2.95% 56 1,898
Warren 75.29% 6,668 22.16% 1,963 2.55% 226 8,857
Washington 69.42% 24,330 28.66% 10,046 1.92% 671 35,047
Wayne 86.59% 3,094 11.14% 398 2.27% 81 3,573
Weakley 78.94% 6,417 18.32% 1,489 2.74% 223 8,129
White 82.41% 5,744 15.42% 1,075 2.17% 151 6,970
Williamson 68.06% 58,132 30.57% 26,116 1.37% 1,169 85,417
Wilson 70.69% 31,496 27.40% 12,208 1.91% 848 44,552

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

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  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2022". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. ^ "2022 Midterm Election Events Calendar". www.cnn.com. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  3. ^ "Doctor critical of lax COVID rules wins Tenn. Dem gov race". AP NEWS. August 5, 2022. Retrieved August 5, 2022.
  4. ^ McCullough, Erin (November 11, 2022). "Less than 40% of registered voters in Tennessee turned out for the 2022 midterms". WKRN News 2. Retrieved November 11, 2022.
  5. ^ Gonzales, Tony (November 10, 2022). "Tennessee voter turnout far below 2018 showing". 90.3 WPLM News. Retrieved December 30, 2022.
  6. ^ Ebert, Joel. "'I love this job': Bill Lee says he'll seek a second term as Tennessee governor". The Tennessean. The USA Today Network. Retrieved September 7, 2020.
  7. ^ a b c d "Tennessee Petitions". TNSOS. Retrieved April 8, 2022.
  8. ^ "New PAC Targets Gov. Lee's Re-Election Bid". Across Tennessee, TN Patch. April 29, 2021. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  9. ^ Rau, Nate (March 23, 2022). "Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles enters District 5 race". Axios. Archived from the original on March 28, 2022. Retrieved March 28, 2022.
  10. ^ a b "Nikki Haley endorses Republican Governor". ABC News. Retrieved July 23, 2021.
  11. ^ a b Murray, Stephanie (August 16, 2021). "Redistricting looms in Texas". Politico. Archived from the original on August 16, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
  12. ^ "August 4, 2022 Republican Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  13. ^ "Doctor eyes run for governor". Nashville Post. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  14. ^ "Sumner County doctor Jason Martin announces gubernatorial campaign | News | wsmv.com". www.wsmv.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  15. ^ "First Democratic Candidate for Governor". Tri-State Defender. April 8, 2021. Retrieved July 29, 2021.
  16. ^ "Memphis City Councilman JB Smiley Jr. Enters Democratic Race for Tennessee Governor". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
  17. ^ "Democrats running for governor make it official". Nashville Post. Retrieved August 26, 2021.
  18. ^ ""I'm suspending my campaign for governor."". Facebook. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  19. ^ "New PAC targets Lee's re-election bid". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  20. ^ "I'm so excited y'all, @jasonbmartin is exactly the leadership TN families need now!". Twitter. Retrieved August 24, 2021.
  21. ^ "Memphis congressman endorses in '22 gubernatorial primary". Nashville Post. October 13, 2021. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  22. ^ "Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris endorses Smiley for governor". May 25, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2022.
  23. ^ "20-Plus Tennessee Leaders Announce Support for JB Smiley, Jr. for Governor". The Tennessee Tribune. October 21, 2021. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  24. ^ "August 4, 2022 Democratic Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  25. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Petition Information". Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 7, 2022.
  26. ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  27. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  28. ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  29. ^ "Tennessee Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  30. ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  31. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  32. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  33. ^ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  34. ^ "Search Reports". Tennessee Registry of Election Finance.
  35. ^ "NFIB Tennessee PAC Endorses Bill Lee for Second Term as Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. September 15, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  36. ^ "Tennessee Endorsements". National Right to Life. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  37. ^ "Tennessee Grades & Endorsements". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 15, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  38. ^ "Bill Lee's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  39. ^ "General Election Endorsements". Retrieved October 17, 2022.
  40. ^ "Tennessee - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  41. ^ RABA Research
  42. ^ Vanderbilt University
  43. ^ State of Tennessee General Election Results Governor, November 8, 2022, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
  44. ^ "2022 Gubernatorial Results by County" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 18, 2023.
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Official campaign websites

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