The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.
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Warner: 20–30% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gade: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Of Virginia's 20 most populous counties and independent cities, Warner won 18, losing only Hanover and Spotsylvania.[1]
Background
editIncumbent Senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former Governor Jim Gilmore.[2] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election by a margin of 0.8% against former chair of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie.[3]
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. senator[4][5][6]
Republican primary
editSeven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures.[7][8] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner.[9] The primary was on June 23.
Candidates
editNominee
edit- Daniel Gade, college professor and U.S. Army veteran[10]
Eliminated in primary
editFailed to qualify
edit- Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor[13]
- Omari Faulkner, Navy reservist and former Georgetown University basketball player[14][9]
- Roger Franklin[15]
- Victor Williams, attorney and activist[16]
Withdrawn
edit- Gary Adkins, financial executive[17]
- John Easley, Republican candidate for Virginia's 1st congressional district in 2020[18][19]
- Scott Taylor, former U.S. representative for Virginia's 2nd congressional district[20] (running for his former House seat)
Declined
edit- Nick Freitas, state delegate and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for U.S. House)[21]
- Corey Stewart, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and former chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors[22][23]
Endorsements
editNational party officials
- Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee[24]
U.S. representatives
- Randy Forbes, former (VA-04)[25]
- Elise Stefanik (NY-21)[25]
- Scott Rigell, former (VA-02)[24]
State senators
- Bill Carrico, former (40)[24]
- Richard Stuart (28)[26]
- Jill Vogel (27)[25]
State delegates
Individuals
- Don Bolduc, brigadier general and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire[24]
- E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist[24]
Results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Daniel Gade | 208,754 | 67.40% | |
Republican | Alissa Baldwin | 56,165 | 18.13% | |
Republican | Thomas Speciale | 44,795 | 14.46% | |
Total votes | 309,714 | 100.0% |
Independents
editWithdrawn
editGeneral election
editVirginia's 2020 Senate election was widely considered to be a safe hold for Mark Warner, as pre-election polling showed a massive lead for Warner. Warner's razor-thin victory over Ed Gillespie six years earlier was widely considered to be a fluke owing to lowered turnout and complacency. On election day, Warner was declared the winner as soon as polls closed based on exit polling alone. The higher turnout is attributable to this election being held concurrently with the presidential election. Warner also notably outperformed Biden in the state, although narrowly.
Warner's victory was largely drawn from the DC Metropolitan area in north Virginia. This is the area that has shifted Virginia from a Republican stronghold in the early 2000s to a Democratic stronghold.
- Complete video of debate, September 23, 2020
Predictions
editSource | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[31] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[32] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[34] | Safe D | October 30, 2020 |
Politico[35] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[36] | Likely D | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[37] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
538[38] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[39] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
editLabor unions
Organizations
- Black Economic Alliance[41]
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence[42]
- End Citizens United[43]
- Human Rights Campaign[44]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[45]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[46]
- League of Conservation Voters[47]
- National Education Association[48]
- National Organization for Women[49]
- Planned Parenthood[50]
- Population Connection[51]
- Sierra Club[52]
Individuals
- John Warner, former U.S. senator from Virginia (1979-2009) (Republican)[53]
National party officials
- Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee[24]
U.S. representatives
- Dan Crenshaw (R- TX-2)[25]
- Randy Forbes, former (R- Virginia-04)[25]
- Scott Rigell, former (R-Virginia-02)[24]
- Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21)[25]
State senators
- Bill Carrico, former (R-40)[24]
- Richard Stuart (R-28)[26]
- Jill Vogel (R-27)[25]
State delegates
- Terry Kilgore (R-1)[26]
- Wendell Walker (R-23)[24]
Individuals
- Don Bolduc, brigadier general and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire[24]
- E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist[24]
Polling
editGraphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mark Warner (D) |
Daniel Gade (R) |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable[54][b] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 283 (LV) | ± 8.3% | 61% | 39% | – |
Data for Progress[55] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 690 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 57% | 42% | 1%[c] |
Roanoke College[56] | October 23–29, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 55% | 39% | 6%[d] |
Christopher Newport University[57] | October 15–27, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 57% | 37% | 6%[e] |
Swayable[58] | October 23–26, 2020 | 332 (LV) | ± 7.3% | 60% | 40% | – |
Virginia Commonwealth University[59] | October 13–22, 2020 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.93% | 55% | 38% | 8%[f] |
Schar School/Washington Post[60] | October 13–19, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 4% | 57% | 39% | 4%[g] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos[61] | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,231 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 43% | 2%[h] |
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College[62] | September 30 – October 12, 2020 | 602 (LV) | – | 55% | 38% | 7%[i] |
Roanoke College/Reconnect Research[63] | September 30 – October 12, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 55% | 38% | 7%[i] |
Cygnal (R)[64][j] | October 9–11, 2020 | 607 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | 5%[k] |
Cygnal (R)[65][l][j] | September 22–25, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 51% | 41% | – |
Christopher Newport University[66] | September 9–21, 2020 | 796 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 39% | 9%[m] |
Virginia Commonwealth University[67][n] | August 28 – September 7, 2020 | 692 (LV) | ± 6.22% | 55% | 38% | 6[o] |
Roanoke College[68] | August 9–22, 2020 | 566 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 34% | 10%[p] |
with Mark Warner and Generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mark Warner (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Roanoke College[69] | May 3–16, 2020 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 31% | – | – |
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/University of Virginia[70] | Feb 15–19, 2019 | 636 (A) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 26% | 2% | 23% |
Results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Warner (incumbent) | 2,468,089 | 56.01% | +6.86% | |
Republican | Daniel Gade | 1,934,306 | 43.89% | −4.45% | |
Write-in | 4,388 | 0.10% | +0.02% | ||
Total votes | 4,406,783 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
By county and independent city
editBy county and independent city
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
|
By congressional district
editWarner won 7 of 11 congressional districts.[72]
District | Warner | Gade | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 49% | 51% | Rob Wittman |
2nd | 54% | 46% | Elaine Luria |
3rd | 69% | 31% | Bobby Scott |
4th | 63% | 37% | Donald McEachin |
5th | 48% | 52% | Denver Riggleman |
Bob Good | |||
6th | 42% | 58% | Ben Cline |
7th | 51% | 49% | Abigail Spanberger |
8th | 76% | 23% | Don Beyer |
9th | 34% | 66% | Morgan Griffith |
10th | 59% | 41% | Jennifer Wexton |
11th | 70% | 30% | Gerry Connolly |
Notes
edit- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- ^ "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
- ^ "Other" and "Neither" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- ^ a b Undecided with 7%
- ^ a b Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign
- ^ Undecided with 5%
- ^ Archived October 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
- ^ Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Don't know/refused" with 6%
- ^ "Refused" with 0%
- ^ On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Gade's countywide votes to be underreported by 107, and Warner's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,589. See https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/criminal-charges-against-former-prince-william-elections-chief-now-dropped-stemmed-from-vote-tabulation-errors/article_40a3eeca-b0e9-11ee-b49c-4f4ae054a6b0.html
- ^ On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Gade's countywide votes to be underreported by 107, and Warner's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,589. See https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/criminal-charges-against-former-prince-william-elections-chief-now-dropped-stemmed-from-vote-tabulation-errors/article_40a3eeca-b0e9-11ee-b49c-4f4ae054a6b0.html
References
edit- ^ "Virginia Counties by Population". Virginia Demographics. Archived from the original on February 15, 2013. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
- ^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2008 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.
- ^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2014 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.
- ^ Seth McLaughlin (July 8, 2019). "Sen. Mark Warner posts $1.8M second-quarter fundraising haul". Washington Times. Retrieved July 8, 2019.
- ^ Virginia Department of Elections. "Declaration of Candidacy" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. Retrieved February 1, 2020.
- ^ Virginia Department of Elections (November 2019). "June and November, 2020 United States Senate Candidate Bulletin" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. p. 4. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 1, 2020. Retrieved February 1, 2020.
- ^ Moomaw, Graham (April 1, 2020). "Three Republicans qualify for GOP primary to challenge U.S. Sen Mark Warner". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.
- ^ "Certified Candidates in Ballot Order for June 9, 2020 Primary Elections" (PDF). Virginia Department of Elections. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 9, 2020. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
- ^ a b Moomaw, Graham (March 24, 2020). "GOP candidate sues Virginia election officials, says coronavirus thwarted efforts to get ballot signatures". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.
- ^ Solano, Sophia (December 12, 2019). "SPA professor and veteran running for Virginia U.S. Senate seat". The Eagle. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
- ^ "Baldwin announces run for U.S. senate". The Kenbridge Victoria Dispatch. July 22, 2019.
- ^ Berti, Daniel (September 12, 2019). "Woodbridge Army officer launches bid for U.S. Senate". Prince William Times. Retrieved September 16, 2019.
- ^ Janney, Josh (January 30, 2020). "Dunn seeking GOP nomination for U.S. Senate seat". The Winchester Star.
- ^ Cline, Nathaniel (April 13, 2020). "Navy reservist Omari Faulkner disappointed to end U.S. Senate run". Loudoun Times-Mirror.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1346979". docquery.fec.gov.
- ^ "On July 4th, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner Harshly Criticized by 2020 Challener, Pro-Tr**p Law Prof Victor Williams". DC Presswire. July 9, 2019. Retrieved July 11, 2019.[permanent dead link ]
- ^ "Gary Adkins Announces Termination of His Bid for U.S. Senate 2020". Standard Newswire (Press release). December 23, 2019. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
- ^ "17 changes to the candidate list. O'Rourke (Democratic) withdraws from Presidential contest". The Green Papers. November 4, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ^ "70 changes to the candidate list. Member of Congress Mark Randal Meadows (North Carolina, Republican) resigns". The Green Papers. March 31, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ^ Wilson, Reid (December 9, 2019). "Ex-Rep. Scott Taylor to seek old Virginia seat". The Hill. Retrieved December 9, 2019.
- ^ Leonor, Mel (December 2, 2019). "Freitas launches bid to challenge Spanberger for congressional seat". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
- ^ Vozzella, Laura (December 15, 2018). "As Va. GOP seeks new course, Corey Stewart says he's finished with statewide politics". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 16, 2018.
- ^ "Corey Stewart to quit politics: 'Just isn't exciting for me anymore'". Washington Examiner. January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Gade, Daniel (January 29, 2020). "Daniel Gade Unloads First Round of Endorsements". Archived from the original on January 29, 2020. Retrieved January 29, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e f g "State Senator Jill Vogel and Former U.S. Senate Candidate Victor Williams Endorse Daniel Gade". April 9, 2020. Archived from the original on April 27, 2020. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
- ^ a b c d "State Senator Richard Stuart Endorses Daniel Gade". May 12, 2020. Archived from the original on June 20, 2020. Retrieved May 12, 2020.
- ^ "Virginia 2020 June Republican Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
- ^ a b "Virginia Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ^ "FILING FEC-1389132". FEC. March 11, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ^ a b "Virginia 2020 Senate Candidate List". www.elections.virginia.gov. August 17, 2020. Retrieved August 19, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
- ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "IFPTE Releases Its 2020 Congressional Endorsements". ifpte.org. International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers. July 6, 2020. Archived from the original on October 26, 2020. Retrieved September 24, 2020.
- ^ "Mark Warner - Black Economic Alliance PAC". Black Economic Alliance.
- ^ "Coalition to Stop Gun Violence Endorses Gun Violence Survivors, Speaker Pelosi, Congressional Allies". Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. March 23, 2020. Archived from the original on June 11, 2020. Retrieved June 19, 2020.
- ^ Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
- ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign. May 18, 2020.
- ^ Society, Humane. "2020 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
- ^ "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.[permanent dead link ]
- ^ Rich, Aliyah (March 5, 2020). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Mark Warner for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters.
- ^ "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
- ^ "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
- ^ "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org. Archived from the original on April 12, 2020. Retrieved June 18, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on September 18, 2020. Retrieved June 18, 2020.
- ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.
- ^ "Republican Former Senator John Warner Endorses Mark Warner's Re-election Bid". Mark Warner For Virginia. October 20, 2020. Archived from the original on December 23, 2020. Retrieved December 27, 2020.
- ^ Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Data for Progress
- ^ Roanoke College
- ^ Christopher Newport University
- ^ Swayable
- ^ Virginia Commonwealth University
- ^ Schar School/Washington Post
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ Reconnect Research/Roanoke College
- ^ Roanoke College/Reconnect Research
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Christopher Newport University
- ^ Virginia Commonwealth University Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Roanoke College
- ^ Roanoke College
- ^ Ipsos/University of Virginia
- ^ "2020 November General Official Results". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on February 3, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
External links
edit- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Virginia", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Virginia: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Virginia". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Virginia at Ballotpedia
Official campaign websites