Wikipedia

2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.

The 2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Jersey. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Menendez won reelection to a third term over Republican businessman Bob Hugin, after the former's criminal trial ended in a mistrial.

2018 United States Senate election in New Jersey
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout53.38%
 
Nominee Bob Menendez Bob Hugin
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,711,654 1,357,355
Percentage 54.01% 42.83%
Menendez:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Hugin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Bob Menendez
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Menendez
Democratic

The candidate filing deadline for Democratic and Republican candidates was April 2, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018.[1] The deadline for independent candidates was June 5, 2018.[2] Despite the race being rated as a tossup by some political pundits, including The Cook Political Report,[3] Menendez was reelected by an 11.2% margin. However, Hugin was the first Republican Senate candidate to carry Atlantic and Gloucester counties since 1972, and the first Republican to do so in this seat since 1970.

Menendez would later be convicted of separate federal corruption charges in 2024, and he then resigned from the Senate.[4][5][6]

Democratic primary

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While he never lost support from any major New Jersey officials, after a mistrial was declared in Senator Menendez's corruption trial, party figures across New Jersey lined up with public endorsements of his reelection bid, including the "full support" of Governor Phil Murphy.[7] He formally declared his intention to run for reelection on March 28, 2018, alongside Governor Murphy and Senator Cory Booker.[8]

Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in Primary

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  • Lisa McCormick, activist and candidate for Union County Clerk in 2010[10][11]

Withdrew

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Declined

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Results

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Results by county
Map legend
  •   Menendez—70–80%
  •   Menendez—60–70%
  •   Menendez—50–60%
  •   McCormick—50–60%
  •   McCormick—60–70%
Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Menendez (incumbent) 262,477 62.28%
Democratic Lisa McCormick 158,998 37.72%
Total votes 421,475 100%

Republican primary

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Bob Hugin launched his primary campaign on February 13 in Springfield.[17] He began advertising on television two weeks later, attacking Menendez on the airwaves,[18] and was soon considered the presumptive nominee.[19] His opponent, Brian Goldberg, attempted to connect himself to President Donald Trump and his supporters by inserting the President's abbreviated slogan, "MAGA", into his ballot slogans and aligning himself with other pro-Trump, anti-establishment candidates.[20] Goldberg also attacked Hugin's running mates, urging Republicans to write in the deceased Charlton Heston in primary races where a Republican congressional candidate was running unopposed.[21] Ultimately, Hugin won overwhelmingly with a majority of votes in each of the state's 21 counties.[22]

Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in Primary

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  • Brian D. Goldberg, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[24][25]

Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Bob Hugin

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Governors

Lieutenant Governors

U.S. Representatives

NJ State Legislators

Sheriffs

Mayors

Others

Organizations

  • Latino Leadership Alliance of New Jersey[65]

Newspapers

Results

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Results by county
Map legend
  •   Hugin—80–90%
  •   Hugin—70–80%
  •   Hugin—60–70%
  •   Hugin—50–60%
Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bob Hugin 168,052 75.13%
Republican Brian Goldberg 55,624 24.87%
Total votes 223,676 100%

Libertarian Party

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Candidates

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Endorsements

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Murray Sabrin

U.S. Representatives

Green Party

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Independents

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Candidates

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  • Tricia Flanagan (New Day NJ), consultant[71]
  • Kevin Kimple (Make it Simple), small business owner[71]
  • Natalie Rivera (For the People), social services coordinator[71]
  • Hank Schroeder (Economic Growth), perennial candidate[71]

Withdrew

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General election

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Debates

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Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Bob Hugin (R) $30,289,561 $27,714,323 $2,575,238
Bob Menendez (D) $11,631,183 $11,225,693 $1,832,385
Source: Federal Election Commission[73]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[74] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[75] Likely D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[76] Likely D November 5, 2018
CNN[77] Lean D October 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[78] Lean D October 3, 2018
Fox News[79] Lean D October 30, 2018

^Highest rating given

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Bob
Hugin (R) 		Murray
Sabrin (L) 		Other Undecided
Change Research[80] November 2–4, 2018 1,006 – 51% 41% – – –
Quinnipiac University[81] October 29 – November 4, 2018 1,115 ± 4.0% 55% 40% – 1% 4%
Stockton University[82] October 25–31, 2018 598 ± 4.0% 51% 39% 3% 4% 1%
Vox Populi Polling[83] October 27–29, 2018 814 ± 3.4% 54% 46% – – –
Emerson College[84] October 24–26, 2018 659 ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 4% 7%
Rutgers-Eagleton[85] October 12–19, 2018 496 LV ± 5.1% 51% 46% – 1% 2%
896 RV ± 3.8% 48% 45% – 1% 5%
Quinnipiac University[86] October 10–16, 2018 873 ± 4.3% 51% 44% – 0% 5%
Monmouth University[87] October 11–15, 2018 527 ± 4.3% 49% 40% 1% 2%[88] 8%
National Research Inc. (R-Hugin)[89] October 6–9, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 40% – – –
YouGov[90] October 2–5, 2018 845 – 49% 39% – 4% 8%
Quinnipiac University[91] September 25 – October 2, 2018 1,058 ± 4.1% 53% 42% – 0% 5%
Vox Populi Polling[92] September 29 – October 1, 2018 794 ± 3.5% 52% 48% – – –
Fairleigh Dickinson University[93] September 26–30, 2018 508 LV ± 4.3% 43% 37% – 1% 19%
746 RV ± 3.9% 37% 32% – 1% 29%
Stockton University[94] September 19–27, 2018 531 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 3% 5% 2%
Quinnipiac University[95] August 15–20, 2018 908 ± 4.6% 43% 37% – 2% 16%
Gravis Marketing (L-Sabrin)[96] August 14–15, 2018 753 ± 3.6% 40% 30% 7% – 22%
Gravis Marketing[97] July 6–10, 2018 563 ± 4.1% 43% 41% – – 16%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[98] May 16–21, 2018 856 ± 3.5% 28% 24% – 1% 46%
Monmouth University[99] April 6–10, 2018 632 ± 3.9% 53% 32% – 7% 7%
Quinnipiac University[100] March 8–12, 2018 1,052 ± 4.2% 49% 32% – 1% 15%
Hypothetical polling

Kean vs. Andrews

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Rob
Andrews (D) 		Thomas
Kean (R) 		Undecided
Harper Polling[101] March 24–25, 2013 760 ± 3.6% 17% 33% 50%

Codey vs. Kyrillos

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Richard
Codey (D) 		Joe
Kyrillos (R) 		Undecided
Harper Polling[101] March 24–25, 2013 760 ± 3.6% 34% 25% 41%

Results

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United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2018[102]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Menendez (incumbent) 1,711,654 54.01% −4.86%
Republican Bob Hugin 1,357,355 42.83% +3.46%
Green Madelyn Hoffman 25,150 0.79% +0.32%
Libertarian Murray Sabrin 21,212 0.67% +0.17%
Independent Natalie Rivera 19,897 0.63% N/A
Independent Tricia Flanagan 16,101 0.51% N/A
Independent Kevin Kimple 9,087 0.29% N/A
Independent Hank Schroeder 8,854 0.28% N/A
Total votes 3,169,310 100% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

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County Menendez % Menendez votes Hugin % Hugin votes Other % Other votes
Atlantic 47.43% 44,617 48.85% 45,954 3.72% 3,502
Bergen 54.69% 188,235 42.54% 146,406 2.77% 9,542
Burlington 52.78% 98,749 43.96% 82,240 3.26% 6,111
Camden 61.82% 113,137 34.58% 63,279 3.60% 6,600
Cape May 35.78% 14,555 61.02% 24,823 3.20% 1,299
Cumberland 48.29% 19,386 47.93% 19,244 3.78% 1,517
Essex 76.52% 194,068 21.12% 53,537 2.36% 6,028
Gloucester 46.41% 52,303 49.77% 56,090 3.82% 4,309
Hudson 76.35% 132,180 20.84% 36,087 2.81% 4,863
Hunterdon 39.29% 24,823 57.17% 36,116 3.54% 2,195
Mercer 63.67% 80,773 32.50% 41,225 3.83% 4,785
Middlesex 58.21% 148,806 38.64% 98,764 3.15% 8,051
Monmouth 42.99% 112,383 53.79% 140,628 3.22% 8,408
Morris 43.60% 93,763 53.38% 114,783 3.02% 6,492
Ocean 33.72% 75,597 63.29% 141,902 2.99% 6,723
Passaic 57.75% 86,242 39.10% 58,382 3.15% 4,700
Salem 38.04% 9,060 57.47% 13,687 4.49% 1,068
Somerset 51.67% 70,359 45.07% 61,373 3.26% 4,450
Sussex 33.23% 20,229 61.96% 37,720 4.81% 2,926
Union 64.22% 117,937 33.09% 60,758 2.69% 4,938
Warren 35.59% 14,452 60.00% 24,357 4.41% 1,794

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Menendez won 6 of 12 congressional districts. Hugin, however, won the remaining 6, including five won by Democrats.

District Menendez Hugin Representative
1st 58% 38% Donald Norcross
2nd 43% 53% Jeff Van Drew
3rd 44% 52% Andy Kim
4th 41% 56% Chris Smith
5th 47% 50% Josh Gottheimer
6th 56% 41% Frank Pallone
7th 46% 51% Tom Malinowski
8th 77% 20% Albio Sires
9th 64% 33% Bill Pascrell
10th 85% 13% Donald Payne Jr.
11th 47% 50% Mikie Sherrill
12th 63% 34% Bonnie Watson Coleman

References

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  45. ^ Leonard Lance. "Proud to be part of this morning's announcement in support of my friend Bob Hugin for U.S. Senate. Bob is a Marine Corps veteran & successful businessman who helped bring life-saving cures to market & thousands of jobs to NJ. We need Bob Hugin's leadership in the U.S. Senate". Twitter.
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  87. ^ Monmouth University
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  91. ^ Quinnipiac University
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  93. ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  94. ^ Stockton University
  95. ^ Quinnipiac University
  96. ^ Gravis Marketing (L-Sabrin)
  97. ^ Gravis Marketing
  98. ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  99. ^ Monmouth University
  100. ^ Quinnipiac University
  101. ^ a b Harper Polling
  102. ^ "Official List Candidates for US Senate For GENERAL ELECTION 11/06/2018" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Jersey. December 3, 2018. Retrieved December 28, 2018.
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Official campaign websites

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