The 2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Both major parties held their primaries on June 14.
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   Scott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Dixon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Tim Scott won re-election to a first full term in office.[1]
This was the second U.S. Senate election in South Carolina (and the second of three consecutive elections for this seat) where both major party nominees were black, and the third overall since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment.[a]
Background
editTwo-term Republican senator Jim DeMint was re-elected with 61.48% of the vote in 2010. He resigned at the start of 2013 to become President of The Heritage Foundation and U.S. Representative Tim Scott of South Carolina's 1st congressional district was appointed to replace him by Governor Nikki Haley.[2] Scott subsequently won the special election in 2014 for the remaining two years of the term.
Republican primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
editDemocratic primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Thomas Dixon, pastor and community activist (also running with Green Party nomination)[3]
Declined
edit- Joyce Dickerson, Richland County Councilwoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for reelection)[4][5]
General election
editCandidates
edit- Tim Scott (Republican), incumbent U.S. Senator[6]
- Thomas Dixon (Democratic, Green), pastor and community activist[6]
- Bill Bledsoe (Libertarian, Constitution)[6]
- Michael Scarborough (American), attorney[6][7]
Debates
edit| Dates | Location | Scott | Dixon | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24, 2016 | Greenville, South Carolina | Participant | Participant | [8] |
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[9] | Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[11] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[12] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[13] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Thomas Dixon (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[14] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,698 | ± 4.6% | 59% | 38% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[15] | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,642 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[16] | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 1,583 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[17] | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 1,501 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[18] | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 1,588 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 40% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[19] | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,762 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | – | 5% |
| Starboard Communications (R)[20] | September 7–9, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.8% | 58% | 22% | – | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[21] | August 9–10, 2016 | 1,290 | ± 2.7% | 45% | 30%[22] | 6%[23] | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
with Joyce Dickerson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Joyce Dickerson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[24] | November 7–8, 2015 | 1,290 | ± 2.7% | 53% | 25% | 23% |
with Bakari Sellers
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Bakari Sellers (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[25] | February 12–15, 2015 | 868 | ± 3.3% | 56% | 28% | 16% |
with Leon Lott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Leon Lott (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[25] | February 12–15, 2015 | 868 | ± 3.3% | 54% | 27% | 19% |
with Jim Hodges
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott (R) |
Jim Hodges (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[25] | February 12–15, 2015 | 868 | ± 3.3% | 54% | 32% | 15% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tim Scott (incumbent) | 1,241,609 | 60.57% | −0.55% | |
| Democratic | Thomas Dixon[28] | 757,022 | 36.93% | −0.16% | |
| Libertarian | Bill Bledsoe[29] | 37,482 | 1.83% | N/A | |
| American | Michael Scarborough | 11,923 | 0.58% | −1.17% | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 1,857 | 0.09% | +0.05% | |
| Total votes | 2,049,893 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
edit- Calhoun (largest town: St. Matthews)
- Clarendon (Largest city: Manning)
By congressional district
editScott won 6 of 7 congressional districts.[30]
| District | Scott | Dixon | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 65% | 33% | Mark Sanford |
| 2nd | 63% | 34% | Joe Wilson |
| 3rd | 71% | 27% | Jeff Duncan |
| 4th | 67% | 30% | Trey Gowdy |
| 5th | 59% | 38% | Mick Mulvaney |
| 6th | 35% | 63% | Jim Clyburn |
| 7th | 61% | 37% | Tom Rice |
References
edit- ^ a b Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
- ^ Jeff Zeleny (December 17, 2012). "Rep. Tim Scott Chosen to Replace Jim DeMint as South Carolina Senator". The New York Times.
- ^ Rindge, Brenda (February 22, 2016). "Thomas Dixon to challenge U.S. Sen. Tim Scott". The Post and Courier. Archived from the original on October 13, 2016. Retrieved February 23, 2016.
- ^ "SOUTH CAROLINA: Richland Co Councilwoman & '14 nom Joyce Dickerson (D) back for a second run vs US Sen Tim Scott (R)". Politics1. Twitter. November 2, 2015. Retrieved March 14, 2016.
- ^ "Candidate Listing for the 11/8/2016 Statewide General Election". South Carolina Election Commission. Retrieved March 18, 2016.
- ^ a b c d "Candidate Listing for the 11/8/2016 Statewide General Election". South Carolina Election Commission. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
- ^ Crowder, Mike (May 15, 2016). "American Party of SC nominates candidates for a handful of offices". WRHI. Retrieved August 9, 2016.
- ^ Full debate - C-SPAN
- ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ Starboard Communications (R) Archived September 14, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Fusion voting total- 28% as D, 2% as G
- ^ Bill Bledsoe (L) with 4% and Michael Scarborough (A) with 2%
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
- ^ "2016 Statewide General Election official results". South Carolina State Election Commission. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
- ^ "2016 South Carolina Senatorial Election Turnout Data". Archived from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved December 10, 2016.
- ^ Aggregated total includes 37,610 votes Dixon received under the Working Families Party, and 14,872 votes received under the Green Party.
- ^ Aggregated total includes 12,652 votes received under the Constitution Party.
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 19, 2024.
Notes
edit- ^ After Illinois in 2004 and South Carolina in 2014.