Wikipedia

2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
← 2012 March 8, 2016 (2016-03-08) 2020 →
 
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 67 63
Popular vote 598,943 581,775
Percentage 49.68% 48.26%
Sanders:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Clinton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

On the same day, the Democratic Party held a second primary in Mississippi, while the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was a massive upset, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.[1]

Clinton lost Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23% in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Forums and debates

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March 2016 debate in Flint

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Main article: Seventh Democratic Party presidential debate, March 2016 in Flint, Michigan

On March 6, 2016 the Democratic Party held a seventh presidential debate at The Whiting at the Flint Cultural Center. Flint, Michigan was chosen as the center of the ongoing Flint water crisis.[2] The debate was hosted by Anderson Cooper and aired on CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. At the end of the debate, Cooper announced a labor union fund had committed $25 million in low-interest loans towards repairing the water system.

March 2016 forum in Detroit

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See also: 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums

The next day, on March 7, 2016, a Town Hall event, was held as the eighth democratic forum. It started at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T., at the Gem Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, and was aired by the Fox News Channel.[3] The forum was moderated by Bret Baier.

Opinion polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results[4] March 8, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49.7% 		Hillary Clinton
48.3% 		Others / Uncommitted
2.1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 482

March 7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61% 		Bernie Sanders
34% 		Others / Undecided
5%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 475

March 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
66% 		Bernie Sanders
29% 		Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth[7]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

March 3–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55% 		Bernie Sanders
42% 		Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 4–5, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60% 		Bernie Sanders
36% 		Others / Undecided
4%
CBS News/YouGov[8]

Margin of error: ± 7.7%
Sample size: 597

March 2–4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55% 		Bernie Sanders
44% 		Others / Undecided
1%
Mitchell/FOX 2[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 610

March 2–3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55% 		Bernie Sanders
37% 		Others / Undecided
8%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 546

March 1–3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57% 		Bernie Sanders
40% 		Others / Undecided
3%
MSU[11]

Margin of error: ± 6.1%
Sample size: 262

January 25-March 3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52% 		Bernie Sanders
47% 		Others / Undecided
1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 427

March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61% 		Bernie Sanders
33% 		Others / Undecided
6%
MRG[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 218

February 22–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56% 		Bernie Sanders
36% 		Others / Undecided
8%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[14]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 344

February 23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
65% 		Bernie Sanders
31% 		Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[15]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

February 19–20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53% 		Bernie Sanders
40% 		Others / Undecided
7%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.69%
Sample size: 430

February 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60% 		Bernie Sanders
27% 		Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.4
Sample size: 500

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50% 		Bernie Sanders
40%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 321

February 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57% 		Bernie Sanders
28% 		Others / Undecided 15%
IMP/Target Insyght [18]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 2–4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62% 		Bernie Sanders
30% 		Others / Undecided 8%
Marketing Resource Group[19]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 600

September 9–14, 2015 Hillary Clinton
41% 		Bernie Sanders
22% 		Joe Biden 22% Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 431

June 25–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
57% 		Bernie Sanders
25% 		Lincoln Chafee 5% Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Not sure 10%
Suffolk[21]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 212

September 6–10, 2014 Hillary Clinton
61% 		Joe Biden
17% 		Elizabeth Warren
7% 		Andrew Cuomo 4%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 9%, Refused 1%

Results

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See also: Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 598,943 49.68% 67 0 67
Hillary Clinton 581,775 48.26% 63 10 73
Uncommitted 21,601 1.79% 0 7 7
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 2,363 0.20%
Rocky De La Fuente 870 0.07%
Total 1,205,552 100% 130 17 147
Source: [22]
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 6 28,860 44,359 73,219 2 4
2 5 26,090 39,834 65,924 2 3
3 5 28,441 45,282 73,723 2 3
4 5 24,928 35,597 60,525 2 3
5 7 48,622 42,755 91,377 4 3
6 5 28,265 39,157 67,422 2 3
7 5 29,186 36,019 65,205 2 3
8 5 35,205 46,969 82,174 2 3
9 6 48,570 50,903 99,473 3 3
10 5 28,314 33,710 62,024 2 3
11 6 39,732 45,054 84,786 3 3
12 7 50,157 58,892 109,049 3 4
13 9 71,235 37,028 108,263 6 3
14 9 88,494 42,608 131,102 6 3
Total 85 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 41 44
PLEO 17 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 8 9
At Large 28 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 14 14
Gr. Total 130 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 63 67
Total vote 1,205,552 48.26% 49.68%
Source: Michigan Department of State Election results (District 13 and 14 Wayne County) partial

Results by county

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County Clinton % Sanders % Others Totals Turnout Margin
Alcona 463 48.74% 455 47.89% 26 947 30.60% -0.84%
Alger 384 37.07% 622 60.64% 26 1,035 44.61% 23.00%
Allegan 3,511 38.01% 5,569 60.28% 16 9,050 11.28% 22.29%
Alpena 1,102 44.26% 1,347 54.10% 26 2,478 36.51% 9.89%
Antrim 867 36.09% 1,491 62.07% 39 2,400 32.72% 26.00%
Arenac 595 46.12% 663 51.40% 24 1,285 35.89% 5.29%
Baraga 270 40.36% 371 55.46% 25 669 37.93% 15.10%
Barry 1,736 35.41% 3,078 62.79% 74 4,891 31.62% 27.44%
Bay 5,937 45.98% 6,363 49.28% 555 12,858 47.83% 3.31%
Benzie 853 33.48% 1,650 64.76% 43 2,549 44.66% 31.27%
Berrien 6,698 51.54% 5,968 45.93% 285 12,954 36.25% -5.64%
Branch 1,010 43.44% 1,246 53.59% 59 2,318 27.23% 10.18%
Calhoun 5,231 46.36% 5,812 51.51% 201 11,247 41.28% 5.17%
Cass 1,657 48.37% 1,684 49.15% 69 3,413 31.70% 0.79%
Charlevoix 1,044 36.73% 1,730 60.87% 58 2,835 36.23% 24.20%
Cheboygan 1,010 42.62% 1,318 55.61% 36 2,367 34.21% 13.01%
Chippewa 1,230 39.83% 1,793 58.06% 55 3,081 38.49% 18.27%
Clare 1,090 45.76% 1,239 52.02% 43 2,375 35.01% 6.27%
Clinton 3,402 42.16% 4,496 55.72% 150 8,051 38.76% 13.59%
Crawford 494 42.33% 631 54.07% 36 1,164 33.90% 11.77%
Delta 1,409 43.34% 1,705 52.45% 122 3,239 39.53% 9.14%
Dickinson 908 43.51% 1,075 51.51% 99 2,085 30.20% 8.01%
Eaton 5,866 43.99% 7,125 53.43% 298 13,292 44.13% 9.47%
Emmet 1,369 33.91% 2,589 64.13% 68 4,029 14.48% 30.28%
Genesee 31,366 51.75% 28,171 46.48% 946 60,486 59.79% -5.28%
Gladwin 985 46.33% 1,083 50.94% 46 2,117 33.72%
Gogebic 678 44.90% 790 52.32% 38 1,509 46.65%
Grand Traverse 4,140 33.19% 8,091 64.86% 206 12,440 41.56%
Gratiot 1,185 38.87% 1,812 59.43% 42 3,042 38.52%
Hillsdale 977 40.17% 1,380 56.74% 59 2,419 24.31%
Houghton 1,109 34.79% 2,039 63.96% 35 3,186 41.79%
Huron 1,050 45.99% 1,184 51.86% 36 2,273 29.30%
Ingham 17,884 43.49% 22,580 54.91% 562 41,029 59.65%
Ionia 1,491 33.99% 2,812 64.11% 62 4,368 34.63%
Iosco 1,077 46.08% 1,202 51.43% 54 2,336 37.45%
Iron 527 48.30% 546 50.05% 18 1,094 36.11%
Isabella 2,032 33.19% 4,024 65.72% 55 6,114 49.53%
Jackson 5,288 42.72% 6,804 54.97% 230 12,325 37.16%
Kalamazoo 12,611 37.92% 20,162 60.63% 408 33,184 50.40%
Kalkaska 590 35.53% 987 61.11% 30 1,610 30.46%
Kent 26,032 36.86% 43,444 61.52% 987 70,506
Keweenaw 128 39.75% 188 58.39% 6 325
Lake 548 50.14% 514 47.03% 30 1,095
Lapeer 3,325 40.39% 4,650 56.49% 221 8,199
Leelanau 1,459 37.67% 2,360 60.93% 44 3,866
Lenawee 3,455 43.73% 4,256 53.87% 163 7,877
Livingston 6,705 38.14% 10,435 59.35% 396 17,539
Luce 167 35.46% 291 61.78% 11 472
Mackinac 500 42.77% 633 54.15% 29 1,165
Macomb 47,599 48.80% 46,248 47.42% 2,534 71,008
Manistee 1,120 39.63% 1,646 58.24% 51 2,820
Marquette 3,188 35.59% 5,530 61.74% 203 8,924
Mason 1,223 40.56% 1,741 57.24% 38 2,772
Mecosta 1,173 38.88% 1,768 58.60% 63 3,007
Menominee 835 48.72% 805 46.97% 64 1,707
Midland 3,097 39.81% 4,568 58.71% 88 7,756
Missaukee 401 39.08% 591 57.60% 33 1,028
Monroe 6,716 47.25% 6,842 48.13% 595 14,156
Montcalm 1,681 36.85% 2,762 60.54%
Montmorency 392 48.70% 383 47.58%
Muskegon 8,807 44.53% 10,456 52.86%
Newaygo 1,295 36.49% 2,155 60.72%
Oakland 92,300 51.38% 84,163 46.85%
Oceana 791 38.21% 1,237 59.76%
Ogemaw 862 46.24% 926 49.68%
Ontonagon 327 44.37% 362 49.12%
Osceola 670 40.39% 953 57.44%
Oscoda 273 44.90% 315 51.81%
Otsego 786 37.97% 1,228 59.5%
Ottawa 7,473 34.39% 13,959 64.24%
Presque Isle 592 47.70% 606 48.83%
Roscommon 1,163 47.33% 1,187 48.31%
Saginaw 12,490 55.32% 9,676 42.86%
St. Clair 5,973 40.96% 8,347 56.54%
St. Joseph 1,382 37.66% 2,219 60.46%
Sanilac 1,160 42.00% 1,485 53.77%
Schoolcraft 312 45.75% 345 50.59%
Shiawassee 3,031 39.38% 4,452 57.84%
Tuscola 1,984 42.65% 2,532 54.43%
Van Buren 2,484 39.73% 3,656 58.48%
Washtenaw 30,022 43.70% 38,062 55.41%
Wayne 165,819 60.11% 105,487 38.24%
Wexford 909 32.95% 1,793 64.99%
Total 581,775 48.26% 598,943 49.68%

Results by congressional district

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District Sanders Clinton
1st 59.09% 38.44%
2nd 59.24% 38.80%
3rd 60.38% 37.92%
4th 57.48% 40.26%
5th 45.77% 52.05%
6th 57.03% 41.17%
7th 53.72% 43.53%
8th 56.00% 41.97%
9th 49.75% 47.47%
10th 52.32% 43.95%
11th 52.11% 45.95%
12th 53.09% 45.22%
13th 33.74% 64.92%
14th 32.10% 66.66%

Analysis

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Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Bernie Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the 2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between the state party and DNC.[73][74][75] Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory in Mississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich Midwestern Rust Belt states,[76] such as Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along with North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton was more clearly favored.[77][78]

Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56–42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated. Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71–28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women and African Americans, but Sanders's margins with Independents and rural voters, mostly working class whites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised by trade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband,[23] were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such as Detroit and Flint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56–40, even though Clinton had hammered him on his 2009 vote against the auto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended upon manufacturing and the auto industry. Among unions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49–46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton.[24] Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans."[23]

Sanders thanked supporters after his surprise win, "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."[23]

Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

Alongside Wisconsin, Michigan was among the two "Blue Wall" states won by Bernie Sanders in the primary election that Donald Trump would ultimately flip in the 2016 United States Presidential Election.

References

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  1. ^ "Election 2016 - Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary". realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved May 28, 2016.
  2. ^ "Flint gets Democratic presidential debate on March 6". Detroit News. February 3, 2016. Retrieved February 3, 2016.
  3. ^ Feldman, Josh. "Fox News Will Hold Democratic Town Hall Next Week; Only One Candidate Set to Appear". MSN. Archived from the original on March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  4. ^ Official Primary results
  5. ^ "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  6. ^ "Clinton Opens Up Huge Lead in Michigan" (PDF).
  7. ^ "MICHIGAN: TRUMP, CLINTON IN FRONT" (PDF).
  8. ^ a b "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  9. ^ "Clinton's lead on Sanders shrinks heading into Michigan Primary".
  10. ^ "Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Hold Big Leads in Michigan: Poll".
  11. ^ "TRUMP LEADS GOP FIELD IN MICHIGAN; DEMOCRATIC RACE CLOSE".
  12. ^ "Clinton, Trump maintain large leads ahead of debates, primary".
  13. ^ "Trump & Clinton Poised to Take Michigan" (PDF).
  14. ^ "Clinton Leads Sanders by 34% February 23, 2016" (PDF).
  15. ^ "ARG POll February 19–20, 2016".
  16. ^ "Clinton Leads Sanders by 33%" (PDF). realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
  17. ^ "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
  18. ^ a b "IMP/Target Insyght Poll: Clinton Dominates Dem Primary". insidemichiganpolitics.com. Retrieved February 8, 2016.
  19. ^ "Hillary up 19 over Biden and Sanders". mrgmi.com. Retrieved September 16, 2015.
  20. ^ "PPP MI" (PDF). publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  21. ^ Suffolk
  22. ^ The Green Papers
  23. ^ a b c Lee, MJ; Zeleny, Jeff; Bash, Dana; Merica, Dan. "What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?". CNN. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
  24. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
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