The 2012 United States Senate election in Washington took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell won re-election to a third term by a significant margin, outperforming President Barack Obama's margin in the concurrent presidential election by 6%.
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| Turnout | 64.1% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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   Cantwell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Baumgartner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
editMaria Cantwell won re-election to serve a second term with 56.81% of the vote against Mike McGavick in the 2006 Washingtonian U.S. senatorial election.
Top-two primary election
editCandidates
editDemocratic
edit- Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
- Timothy Wilson[3]
Republican
edit- Michael Baumgartner, state senator[4]
- Art Coday, physician[5]
- Chuck Jackson, merchant mariner[6][7]
- Mike the Mover, perennial candidate[6]
- Glen R. Stockwell, president of Washington State Economic Development Corporation[6][8]
Declined
edit- Bill Bryant, Port of Seattle Commission President[9]
- Clint Didier, former NFL football player (endorsed Coday)[10]
- Doc Hastings, U.S. Representative[11]
- Jaime Herrera Beutler, U.S. Representative[12]
- John Koster, Snohomish County Councilman and candidate for the 2nd congressional district in 2010 (running for the U.S. House)[13]
- Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative[14]
- Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative[15]
- Phillip Yin, Hong Kong–based anchor for Bloomberg Television[16]
Others
edit- Will Baker (Reform Party)[6]
Results
edit
Cantwell
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Baumgartner
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent) | 626,360 | 55.42 | |
| Republican | Michael Baumgartner | 344,729 | 30.50 | |
| Republican | Art Coday | 59,255 | 5.24 | |
| Democratic | Timothy Wilson | 26,850 | 2.38 | |
| Republican | Chuck Jackson | 21,870 | 1.94 | |
| Republican | Glenn R. Stockwell | 21,731 | 1.92 | |
| Republican | Mike the Mover | 16,459 | 1.46 | |
| Reform | Will Baker | 12,865 | 1.14 | |
| Total votes | 1,130,119 | 100.00 | ||
General election
editCandidates
edit- Michael Baumgartner (Republican), state senator
- Maria Cantwell (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
Debates
edit- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2012 - C-SPAN
Fundraising
edit| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Cantwell (D) | $8,032,254 | $6,355,260 | $2,176,258 | $2,171,350 |
| Michael Baumgartner (R) | $689,690 | $422,428 | $181,841 | $45,689 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[18][19] | ||||
Top contributors
edit| Maria Cantwell | Contribution | Michael Baumgartner | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corp | $83,982 | Anderson Hay & Grain | $5,000 |
| EMILY's List | $77,900 | Columbia Management Systems, By Lar | $5,000 |
| Morgan & Morgan | $40,000 | Ignition Partners | $5,000 |
| League of Conservation Voters | $39,900 | Kvc Development Co | $5,000 |
| University of Washington | $35,900 | Acorn Campus Ventures | $4,000 |
| K&L Gates | $35,048 | Legacy LLC | $3,523 |
| Boeing Co. | $30,625 | Inland Empire Paper | $3,750 |
| Intellectual Ventures LLC | $27,250 | Savers Inc | $3,523 |
| McBee Strategic Consulting | $26,650 | Red Lion Hotels | $3,500 |
| Second Avenue Partners | $24,500 | National Cotton Council | $3,300 |
Top industries
edit| Maria Cantwell | Contribution | Michael Baumgartner | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $696,936 | Retired | $45,756 |
| Retired | $621,231 | Financial institutions | $10,000 |
| Lobbyists | $539,418 | Financial institutions | $310,487 |
| Financial institutions | $310,487 | Agribusiness | $9,550 |
| Computers/Internet | $206,970 | Health professionals | $6,150 |
| Real estate | $179,169 | Misc. finance | $4,250 |
| Health professionals | $169,937 | Mining | $4,25 |
| Business services | $167,629 | Timber/forest products | $3,750 |
| Casinos/gambling | $165,850 | General contractors | $3,000 |
| Entertainment industry | $136,457 | Real estate | $2,950 |
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[22] | Solid D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[24] | Safe D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[25] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
editAggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Michael Baumgartner (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[26] | October 14 – November 3, 2012 | November 3, 2012 | 56.7% | 36.3% | 7.0% | Cantwell +20.4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Michael Baumgartner (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[27] | November 21–23, 2011 | 549 | ±4.3% | 51% | 39% | — | 10% |
| Survey USA[28] | January 12–16, 2012 | 617 | ±4.0% | 50% | 41% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[29] | February 16–19, 2012 | 1,264 | ±2.76% | 51% | 36% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[30] | June 14–17, 2012 | 1,073 | ±3.0% | 51% | 35% | — | 14% |
| Survey USA[31] | July 16–17, 2012 | 630 | ±4.0% | 51% | 40% | — | 9% |
| Survey USA[32] | September 7–9, 2012 | 524 | ±4.4% | 54% | 38% | — | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | September 26, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 57% | 37% | 1% | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[34] | September 28–30, 2012 | 540 | ±4.3% | 53% | 40% | — | 6% |
| The Washington Poll[35] | October 1–16, 2012 | 782 | ±3.5% | 58% | 35% | — | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | October 14, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 52% | 37% | 1% | 9% |
| KCTS 9/Washington Poll[36] | October 18–31, 2012 | 632 | ±3.9% | 61% | 33% | — | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[37] | November 1–3, 2012 | 932 | ±3.2% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Bill Bryant (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[29] | February 16–19, 2012 | 1,264 | ±2.76% | 50% | 36% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Cathy M. Rodgers (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | July 27 – August 1, 2010 | 1,204 | ±2.8% | 49% | 37% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 50% | 31% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Dave Reichert (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | July 27 – August 1, 2010 | 1,204 | ±2.8% | 47% | 41% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 49% | 35% | — | 16% |
| Survey USA[27] | November 21–23, 2011 | 549 | ±4.3% | 48% | 41% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Clint Didier (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[39] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 51% | 35% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Susan Hutchison (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[39] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 49% | 35% | — | 16% |
| Survey USA[27] | November 21–23, 2011 | 549 | ±4.3% | 49% | 38% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Dino Rossi (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[39] | May 12–15, 2011 | 1,098 | ±3.0% | 53% | 40% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[29] | February 16–19, 2012 | 1,264 | ±2.76% | 53% | 41% | — | 7% |
Endorsements
editMaria Cantwell (D)
State legislators
- Dale Foreman, former majority leader of the Washington House of Representatives and former chair of the Washington State Republican Party (Republican)[40]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent) | 1,855,493 | 60.36% | +3.55% | |
| Republican | Michael Baumgartner | 1,213,924 | 39.49% | −0.42% | |
| Write-in | 4,644 | 0.15% | +0.08% | ||
| Total votes | 3,074,061 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
editCounties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
editBy congressional district
editCantwell won 8 of 10 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[42]
| District | Cantwell | Baumgartner | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 57% | 43% | Suzan DelBene |
| 2nd | 63% | 37% | Rick Larsen |
| 3rd | 53% | 47% | Jaime Herrera Beutler |
| 4th | 45% | 55% | Doc Hastings |
| 5th | 48% | 52% | Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
| 6th | 61% | 39% | Derek Kilmer |
| 7th | 82% | 18% | Jim McDermott |
| 8th | 55% | 45% | Dave Reichert |
| 9th | 72% | 28% | Adam Smith |
| 10th | 61% | 39% | Denny Heck |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
edit- ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
- ^ Blumenthal, Les (November 21, 2010). "Washington state's Cantwell not looking ahead to 2012 -- yet". McClatchy Newspapers. Archived from the original on November 19, 2012. Retrieved December 9, 2010.
- ^ "timwilsonforsenate.org - timwilsonforsenate Resources and Information". Archived from the original on January 13, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2019.
- ^ "Makupfront: Up Front With Robert Mak". Archived from the original on April 25, 2012. Retrieved October 2, 2011.
- ^ Camden, Jim (January 30, 2012). "U.S. Senate race: Cantwell has $4 million in bank". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
- ^ a b c d "2012 Candidates Appearing in the Primary". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.
- ^ "Candidate Statement". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.
- ^ "Corporation Registration Detail". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.
- ^ Myrick, Bryan (March 12, 2012). "Port Commission President Bill Bryant Will Not Challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate". NW Daily Marker.
- ^ "Endorsements - Art Coday for US Senate, Washington 2012". Archived from the original on March 23, 2012. Retrieved March 25, 2012.
- ^ Faulk, Mike (February 24, 2012). "Doc Hastings rules out reform". Yakima Herald-Republic. Tri-City Herald. Archived from the original on April 18, 2012. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
- ^ Mathieu, Stevie (January 16, 2012). "Congresswoman talks town halls, confirms re-election bid". The Columbian. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
- ^ "John Koster officially files to unseat Rep. Rick Larsen | Politics | Everett News". Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved August 6, 2011.
- ^ Camden, Jim; Brunt, Jonathan (March 17, 2011). "McMorris Rodgers starting 2012 campaign". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
- ^ Brunner, Jim (February 2, 2012). "Reichert won't challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate seat". The Seattle Times.
- ^ Mak, Robert (October 26, 2011). "GOP Senate hopeful drops out of race". KING 5 News. Archived from the original on February 11, 2012. Retrieved December 14, 2011.
- ^ "U.S. Senator". Archived from the original on August 10, 2012. Retrieved August 8, 2012.
- ^ Maria Cantwell Campaign Finances
- ^ Michael Baumgartner Campaign Finances
- ^ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=WAS1 OpenSecrets
- ^ Donors by Industry (opensecrets.org)
- ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ a b c Survey USA
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ The Washington Poll
- ^ KCTS 9/Washington Poll
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
- ^ "Extra Jolt: Longtime Republican Leader Endorses Cantwell over Baumgartner".
- ^ "U.S. Senator".
- ^ Results. sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original on May 20, 2024.
External links
edit- Elections & Voting at the Washington Secretary of State office
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
- Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
- Candidate issue positions at On the Issues
Official campaign websites (archived)