2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2024, this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri to date. This is also the last time that a governor and lieutenant governor of different political parties were simultaneously elected in Missouri. Primary elections took place on August 5, 2012.

2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

← 2008 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2016 →
 
Nominee Jay Nixon Dave Spence
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,494,056 1,160,265
Percentage 54.77% 42.53%

Nixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
Spence:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • William Campbell[2]
  • Clay Thunderhawk[2]

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jay Nixon (incumbent) 269,865 86.0%
Democratic William Campbell 25,721 8.2%
Democratic Clay Thunderhawk 18,228 5.8%
Total votes 313,814 100.0%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer[3]
  • Fred Sauer, investment executive and anti-abortion activist[2]
  • John Weiler[2]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Randles
Fred
Sauer
Dave
Spence
John
Weiler
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[4] August 4–5, 2012 590 ± 4.0% 15% 12% 42% 3% 29%
Mason-Dixon[5] July 23–25, 2012 400 ± 5.0% 15% 1% 41% 3% 40%
Public Policy Polling[6] May 24–27, 2012 430 ± 4.7% 11% 4% 32% 1% 43%
Public Policy Polling[7] January 27–29, 2012 574 ± 4.1% 15% 11% 74%

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dave Spence 333,578 59.9%
Republican Bill Randles 90,651 16.3%
Republican Fred Sauer 83,695 15.0%
Republican John Weiler 49,006 8.8%
Total votes 556,930 100.0%

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Denied ballot access

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  • Leonard Steinman[2]

Results

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Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jim Higgins 2,500 100.0%
Total votes 2,500 100.0%

General election

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Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[8] Lean D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Likely D November 5, 2012
Inside Elections[10] Likely D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[11] Lean D November 5, 2012

Polling

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Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Dave
Spence (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[12] November 2–3, 2012 835 ± 3.4% 53% 45% 2%
SurveyUSA[13] October 28–November 3, 2012 589 ± 4.1% 48% 39% 5% 8%
Mason-Dixon[14] October 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4% 48% 42% 9%
Public Policy Polling[15] October 19–21, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 51% 40% 8%
Public Policy Polling[16] October 1–3, 2012 700 ± 3.7% 54% 35% 12%
Public Policy Polling[17] August 20, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 46% 37% 16%
Survey USA[18] August 9–12, 2012 585 ± 4.1% 51% 37% 5% 6%
Chilenski Strategies[19] August 8, 2012 663 ± 3.8% 53% 39% 9%
Mason-Dixon[5] July 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling[6] May 24–27, 2012 602 ± 4.0% 45% 34% 21%
Public Policy Polling[20] January 27–29, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 47% 27% 26%
Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Peter
Kinder
Bill
Randles
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] September 9–12, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 34% 14% 53%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Peter
Kinder
Someone
else
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21] September 9–12, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 22% 35% 43%

General election

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Bill
Randles (R)
Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon[5] July 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 50% 35% 15%
Public Policy Polling[6] May 24–27, 2012 602 ± 4.0% 46% 32% 22%
Public Policy Polling[20] January 27–29, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 47% 29% 24%
Public Policy Polling[22] September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 45% 24% 30%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Matt
Blunt (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22] September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 50% 37% 13%
Public Policy Polling[23] April 28-May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 48% 38% 13%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
John
Danforth (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22] September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 39% 45% 17%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Kenny
Hulshof (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[23] April 28-May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 51% 34% 15%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Peter
Kinder (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22] September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 50% 31% 18%
Public Policy Polling[23] April 28-May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 48% 34% 18%
Public Policy Polling[24] March 3–6, 2011 612 ± 4.0% 45% 38% 17%
Public Policy Polling[25] Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 515 ± 4.3% 47% 39% 14%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Sarah
Steelman (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[25] Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 515 ± 4.3% 46% 35% 19%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Jim
Talent (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22] September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 47% 38% 14%

Results

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Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012[26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jay Nixon (incumbent) 1,494,056 54.77% −3.63%
Republican Dave Spence 1,160,265 42.53% +3.04%
Libertarian Jim Higgins 73,509 2.70% +1.59%
Write-in 53 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 2,727,883 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Nixon won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.[27]

District Nixon Spence Representative
1st 81.38% 13.21% Lacy Clay
2nd 50.67% 47.37% Todd Akin (112th Congress)
Ann Wagner (113th Congress)
3rd 48.20% 49.08% Russ Carnahan (112th Congress)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress)
4th 49.16% 47.46% Vicky Hartzler
5th 66.00% 31.20% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 50.09% 46.96% Sam Graves
7th 43.75% 53.39% Billy Long
8th 48.27% 49.06% Jo Ann Emerson

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
  3. ^ "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". August 25, 2011.
  4. ^ Public Policy Polling
  5. ^ a b c Mason-Dixon
  6. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  7. ^ Public Policy Polling
  8. ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  9. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  10. ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  11. ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  12. ^ Public Policy Polling
  13. ^ SurveyUSA
  14. ^ Mason-Dixon
  15. ^ Public Policy Polling
  16. ^ Public Policy Polling
  17. ^ Public Policy Polling
  18. ^ Survey USA
  19. ^ Chilenski Strategies
  20. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  21. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  22. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  23. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling
  25. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ "State of Missouri - Election Night Results".
  27. ^ "Daily Kos".
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  • Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State

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