The 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick was re-elected to a second term.[3]
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 54.81%  1.42 [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||
    Patrick: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Baker: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Cahill: 40–50% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
Party primaries were held on September 14, though all four candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[4] Tim Murray, who ran on a ticket with Patrick, was re-elected Lieutenant Governor. This election is the only gubernatorial election since 1994 in which the two major parties did not have a woman on the gubernatorial ticket.
Democratic primary
editGovernor
editCandidates
edit- Deval Patrick, incumbent Governor[5]
Withdrew
edit- Grace Ross, 2006 Green-Rainbow nominee for Governor[6][7]
Polling
edit| Poll source | Dates administered | Deval Patrick | Grace Ross |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[8] | February 21–24, 2010 | 59% | 15% |
Lieutenant governor
editCandidates
edit- Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor
Republican primary
editGovernor
editCandidates
edit- Charlie Baker, CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care and former Secretary of Administration and Finance[9][10][11]
Eliminated at convention
edit- Christy Mihos, independent candidate for governor in 2006[12][13]
Declined
edit- Kerry Healey, former Lieutenant Governor and nominee in 2006[14]
- Bob Hedlund, State Senator from Weymouth[15]
- Joe Malone, former State Treasurer [16] (ran for U.S. Representative)
- Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Massachusetts[17][18]
Polling
edit| Poll source | Dates administered | Charlie Baker | Christy Mihos |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | July 15–21, 2009 | 27% | 20% |
| Suffolk University[20] | November 4–8, 2009 | 30% | 33% |
| Suffolk University[8] | February 21–24, 2010 | 47% | 17% |
Lieutenant governor
editCandidates
edit- Richard Tisei, Minority Leader of the Massachusetts State Senate
General election
editCandidates
edit- Charlie Baker, CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care[9][10][11] (Republican)
- Running mate: Richard Tisei, Minority Leader of the Massachusetts State Senate
- Tim Cahill, State Treasurer and Receiver-General[21] (Independent)
- Running mate: Paul Loscocco, former Republican State Representative
- Deval Patrick, incumbent Governor[5] (Democratic)
- Running mate: Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor
- Jill Stein, medical internist and co-chairperson of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party[22] (Green-Rainbow)
- Running mate: Richard P. Purcell, surgery clerk and ergonomics assessor[23]
Campaign
editDefection of Loscocco
editOn October 1, 2010, Loscocco announced that he would withdraw from the race and endorse Republican candidate Charlie Baker.[2] Loscocco formally remained on the ballot, however.[24] On October 7, Cahill filed a lawsuit against four former campaign aides, alleging that they conspired to undermine his candidacy and help Charlie Baker by arranging his defection.[25] Cahill claimed that e-mails between Republican political consultants and Loscocco's top aide suggested that Loscocco may have been enticed to leave the ticket by future job promises.[26] In response, Loscocco claimed that Cahill's top aide was coordinating strategy with the Patrick campaign and the Democratic Governors' Association and thus was never actually an independent effort.[27]
Lottery ad
editSoon after Cahill filed suit against him, Adam Meldrum, Cahill's former campaign manager, alleged that Cahill colluded with the Massachusetts Lottery, which is overseen by the state treasurer's office, to run an ad favorable to him during the campaign. The ad, paid for by the Commonwealth, described the Massachusetts Lottery "the most successful state lottery America" and "consistently well-managed", echoing themes from Cahill's gubernatorial campaign. Both Cahill and Massachusetts Lottery Director Mark Cavanagh denied the allegations.[25] On October 18, e-mails released in conjunction with Cahill's lawsuit appeared to reveal that the campaign attempted to have the Lottery air a series of ads that praised the lottery's management. In the e-mails, Cahill's campaign media strategist Dane Strother told Meldrum to "Get the Lottery immediately cutting a spot and get it up...Needs to focus on the Lottery being the best in the country and above reproach." Two days later, Cahill's senior adviser Scott Campbell wrote, "I think the first thing is to figure out what/where/how we want to do this ... with Lottery people."[28]
On April 2, 2012, Cahill was indicted by a Grand Jury on charges that he used $1.65 million in Massachusetts State Lottery advertising to aid his campaign for governor.[29] On December 12, 2012, a mistrial was declared in the corruption case after the jury failed to reach a verdict on two counts of conspiracy.[30]
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[31] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[32] | Tilt D | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[33] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[35] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll | Date | Deval Patrick (D) |
Charlie Baker (R) |
Tim Cahill (I) |
Jill Stein (GR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[36] | June 24, 2009 | 41% | 36% | – | – |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | July 15–21, 2009 | 30% | 20% | 30% | – |
| 35% | 41% | – | – | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | October 22, 2009 | 34% | 24% | 23% | – |
| Suffolk University[38] | November 4–8, 2009 | 38% | 15% | 26% | – |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | November 23, 2009 | 33% | 28% | 25% | – |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | January 2–6, 2010 | 30% | 19% | 23% | – |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | January 7–9, 2010 | 29% | 27% | 21% | – |
| Suffolk University[8] | February 21–24, 2010 | 33% | 25% | 23% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | March 8, 2010 | 35% | 32% | 19% | – |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | April 5, 2010 | 35% | 27% | 23% | – |
| April 17 – Baker secures Republican nomination at convention; Mihos eliminated | |||||
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | May 10, 2010 | 45% | 31% | 14% | 1% |
| Suffolk University[40] | May 25, 2010 | 42% | 29% | 14% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[41] | June 21, 2010 | 41% | 34% | 16% | – |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[42] | June 17–23, 2010 | 38% | 31% | 9% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | July 22, 2010 | 38% | 32% | 17% | – |
| Statehouse News[44] | August 29–31, 2010 | 34% | 28% | 18% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | September 1, 2010 | 39% | 34% | 18% | – |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | September 17, 2010 | 45% | 42% | 5% | – |
| Suffolk University /7 News[45] | September 16–19, 2010 | 41% | 34% | 14% | 4% |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[46] | September 17–22, 2010 | 35% | 34% | 11% | 4% |
| Western New England College[47] | September 19–23, 2010 | 39% | 33% | 16% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | September 30, 2010 | 47% | 42% | 6% | – |
| Suffolk University 7 News[48] | October 10–12, 2010 | 46% | 39% | 10% | 1% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[49] | October 11–13, 2010 | 35% | 42% | 10% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | October 18, 2010 | 47% | 42% | 6% | – |
| Western New England College[50] | October 22, 2010 | 44% | 36% | 8% | 5% |
| Boston Globe[51] | October 24, 2010 | 43% | 39% | 8% | 2% |
| Suffolk University/7News[52] | October 25–27, 2010 | 46% | 39% | 9% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[53] | October 27, 2010 | 46% | 44% | 6% | — |
| Western New England College[54] | October 24–28, 2010 | 42% | 37% | 11% | 3% |
| Results (for comparison) | [November 2, 2010] | [ 48.4% ] | [ 42.0% ] | [ 8.0% ] | [ 1.4% ] |
Hypothetical polling
with Christy Mihos
| Poll source | Dates administered | Deval Patrick | Christy Mihos | Jill Stein | Tim Cahill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[36] | June 24, 2009 | 40% | 41% | –– | –– |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | July 15–21, 2009 | 31% | 18% | –– | 31% |
| 40% | 41% | –– | –– | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[55] | August 20, 2009 | 35% | 40% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | October 22, 2009 | 34% | 23% | –– | 23% |
| Suffolk University[56] | November 4–8, 2009 | 36% | 20% | –– | 26% |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | November 23, 2009 | 32% | 26% | –– | 28% |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | January 2–6, 2010 | 32% | 19% | –– | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | January 7–9, 2010 | 28% | 21% | –– | 25% |
| Suffolk University[8] | February 21–24, 2010 | 34% | 19% | 3% | 26% |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | March 8, 2010 | 34% | 19% | –– | 30% |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | April 5, 2010 | 38% | 15% | –– | 33% |
with Grace Ross
| Poll source | Dates administered | Grace Ross | Charlie Baker | Tim Cahill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | May 10, 2010 | 27% | 32% | 16% |
Fundraising
editAs of October 31, 2010.[57] Shading indicates candidate with the highest amount.
| Candidate (Party) | Raised | Spent | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Cahill (I) | $570,345.01 | $277,655.73 | $292,689.28 |
| Charlie Baker (R) | $736,877.30 | $491,089.99 | $245,787.31 |
| Deval Patrick (D) | $606,991.19 | $459,858.16 | $147,133.03 |
| Jill Stein (G) | $64,454.75 | $22,068.50 | $42,386.25 |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Deval Patrick (incumbent) | 1,112,283 | 48.42 | 7.21
| |
| Republican | Charlie Baker | 964,866 | 42.00 |  6.67
| |
| Independent | Tim Cahill | 184,395 | 8.03 | 1.06
| |
| Green-Rainbow | Jill Stein | 32,895 | 1.43 | 0.51
| |
| Write-in | All others | 2,600 | 0.11 | 0.01
| |
| Total votes | 2,297,039 | ||||
| Blank | 22,924 | ||||
| Turnout | 2,319,963 | ||||
| Majority | 147,417 | 6.41 | |||
| Democratic hold | Swing | –13.88 | |||
Results by county
edit| 2010 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [59] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Patrick % | Patrick # | Baker % | Baker # | Others % | Others # | Total # |
| Barnstable | 43.8% | 47,124 | 47.0% | 50,609 | 9.2% | 9,876 | 107,609 |
| Berkshire | 70.3% | 30,269 | 21.5% | 9,266 | 8.2% | 3,527 | 43,062 |
| Bristol | 46.3% | 81,059 | 41.8% | 73,220 | 11.8% | 20,724 | 175,003 |
| Dukes | 57.6% | 4,908 | 32.3% | 2,757 | 10.1% | 862 | 8,527 |
| Essex | 43.2% | 116,360 | 47.5% | 127,964 | 9.3% | 25,148 | 269,472 |
| Franklin | 60.8% | 17,068 | 24.4% | 6,838 | 14.9% | 4,170 | 28,076 |
| Hampden | 45.4% | 62,816 | 39.5% | 54,653 | 15.1% | 20,857 | 138,326 |
| Hampshire | 58.4% | 33,317 | 28.0% | 15,994 | 13.6% | 7,752 | 57,063 |
| Middlesex | 50.8% | 283,221 | 40.6% | 226,272 | 8.7% | 48,481 | 557,974 |
| Nantucket | 50.7% | 2,454 | 38.2% | 1,846 | 11.1% | 538 | 4,838 |
| Norfolk | 43.80% | 119,806 | 43.81% | 119,850 | 12.4% | 33,882 | 273,538 |
| Plymouth | 38.3% | 74,355 | 49.8% | 96,592 | 11.9% | 23,105 | 194,052 |
| Suffolk | 67.0% | 125,961 | 24.9% | 46,822 | 8.1% | 15,292 | 188,075 |
| Worcester | 41.4% | 113,565 | 48.2% | 132,183 | 10.4% | 28,440 | 274,188 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
edit- Barnstable (largest municipality: Barnstable)
- Essex (largest municipality: Lynn)
- Norfolk (largest municipality: Quincy)
- Plymouth (largest municipality: Brockton)
- Worcester (largest municipality: Worcester)
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ "Our Campaigns - MA Governor Race - Nov 02, 2010". www.ourcampaigns.com. Retrieved February 11, 2024.
- ^ a b Loscocco declared he would drop out and endorse the Republican ticket. However, there was no way to drop out by that time, so he remained on the ballot.Bierman, Noah; Levenson, Michael; Ellement, John R. (October 1, 2010). "'I won't give in,' Cahill declares as he vows to stay in race". The Boston Globe. Retrieved October 5, 2010.
- ^ Phillips, Frank; Levenson, Michael (November 3, 2010). "Patrick roars to 2d term". The Boston Globe. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
- ^ "Massachusetts primary election 2010". The Washington Post. September 14, 2010. Archived from the original on October 8, 2012. Retrieved November 15, 2010.
- ^ a b Chabot, Hillary (April 2, 2009). "Deval: I will run again". Boston Herald. Archived from the original on April 3, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
- ^ Ebbert, Stephanie (June 2, 2010). "Always on the run: Despite lack of funds, mounting string of losses, quixotic politicians carry on for their causes". The Boston Globe. Retrieved June 2, 2010.
- ^ Alexander Burns (February 5, 2010). "Ross launches Patrick primary challenge". Politico.
- ^ a b c d Suffolk University
- ^ a b Hillary Chabot, Christine McConville & Jessica Van Sack (July 8, 2009). "Charles D. Baker leaving Harvard Pilgrim to run for governor". Boston Herald. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
- ^ a b "Baker a favorite for 2010 among Massachusetts delegates". Politicker.com.[permanent dead link]
- ^ a b "Charlie Baker 2010 Governor". Draftcharlie.com. Archived from the original on March 1, 2010. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
- ^ Matt Collette (April 27, 2009). "Mihos plans another run for governor". The Boston Globe. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
- ^ "GOP throws full support behind Charlie Baker for governor". Boston Herald. Retrieved April 23, 2010.
- ^ Shore, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Kerry Healey". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on August 21, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
- ^ Shore, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Bob Hedlund". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on January 28, 2010. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
- ^ Shore won, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Joe Malone". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on April 24, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
- ^ "Draft Mike Sullivan for Governor". Draftsullivan.com. Archived from the original on March 13, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
- ^ Shore, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Michael Sullivan". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on August 10, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
- ^ a b c d e The Boston Globe/UNH
- ^ Suffolk University Archived 2010-01-07 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Tim for Governor". Archived from the original on March 5, 2010. Retrieved September 18, 2010.
- ^ Stein to jump into gov race with Green-Rainbow bid Boston Herald, January 7, 2010
- ^ "Gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein of Green-Rainbow Party, introduces lieutenant governor candidate Richard P. Purcell, of Holyoke". The Republican (Springfield). April 3, 2010.
- ^ "2010 State Election Candidates". Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division. Retrieved October 5, 2010.
- ^ a b Johnson, Glen (October 8, 2010). "Mass. Lottery chief: No ad collusion with Cahill". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
- ^ Phillips, Frank (October 7, 2010). "Cahill files lawsuit alleging dirty political tricks in Mass". The Boston Globe.
- ^ Stephanie Ebbert and Michael Levenson (October 9, 2010). "Campaign crossfire hotter still". The Boston Globe. Retrieved January 5, 2012.
- ^ Denise Lavoie; Glen Johnson (October 14, 2010). "E-mails appear to link Mass. candidate, lottery ad". The Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 15, 2015. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
- ^ Phillips, Frank (April 2, 2012). "Timothy Cahill indicted on charges of using official funds for campaign-boosting ads". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 2, 2012.
- ^ Cassidy, Chris (December 12, 2012). "Tim Cahill 'thrilled' that mistrial declared". Boston Herald. Retrieved December 12, 2012.
- ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Suffolk University Archived 2010-01-07 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b Public Policy Polling
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ The Boston Globe/UNH
- ^ a b c d e Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Statehouse News
- ^ Suffolk University / 7 News
- ^ The Boston Globe/UNH
- ^ Western New England College [permanent dead link]
- ^ Suffolk University 7 News
- ^ Public Opinion Strategies
- ^ Western New England College
- ^ Boston Globe
- ^ Suffolk University/7News
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Western New England College
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Suffolk University Archived 2010-01-07 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Source: "OCPF Searchable Campaign Finance Database & Electronic Filing System". Massachusetts Office of Campaign and Political Finance. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on July 26, 2010. Retrieved November 15, 2010.
- ^ "2010 Return of Votes Complete Statistics" (PDF). Massachusetts Elections Division. December 1, 2010. Retrieved December 4, 2010.
- ^ "PD43+ » Search Elections". PD43+. Retrieved February 11, 2024.
External links
edit- Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth – Elections Division
- Massachusetts Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Massachusetts Governor from Follow the Money
- Massachusetts Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- Swanson, Emily (June 15, 2010). "2010 Massachusetts Gubernatorial General Election: Charlie Baker (R) vs Deval Patrick (D) vs Tim Cahill (i)". The Huffington Post. Retrieved October 24, 2010. (graph of multiple polls)
- Election 2010: Massachusetts Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Massachusetts Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Massachusetts Governor's Race[permanent dead link] from CQ Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
Debates
edit- "Massachusetts Gubernatorial Debate". C-SPAN. September 24, 2010.
- "The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Debate". WWLP. October 21, 2010. Archived from the original on August 20, 2011. Retrieved October 27, 2010.
- "Final Mass. Governor's Debate". BostonChannel. October 25, 2010. Archived from the original on October 29, 2010. Retrieved October 27, 2010.