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2008 United States presidential election in Indiana

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Indiana
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,374,039 1,345,648
Percentage 49.85% 48.82%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Indiana was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by 28,391 votes, a 1.03% margin of victory. Prior to the election, major news organizations considered the state as leaning toward Republican nominee John McCain or as a toss-up. On election day, Obama narrowly carried Indiana, which marked what is to date the only time a Democratic presidential nominee won Indiana since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time that the Democratic nominee won any of the following counties: Madison, Spencer, Starke, Vanderburgh, and Vermillion, and the last time the state was decided by a single digit margin. Obama's 1,374,039 votes is the most received by a Democratic presidential candidate in the state's history. While both states went to the Democratic nominee, Indiana voted more Democratic in this election than North Carolina, a modern-day swing state whereas Indiana would return to its Republican roots just four years later.

Primaries

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On May 6, 2008, Indiana held its presidential primaries:

Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Their last predictions before election day were:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1] Likely R
Cook Political Report[2] Toss-up
The Takeaway[3] Lean R
Electoral-vote.com[4] Lean R
Washington Post[5] Lean R
Politico[6] Lean R
RealClearPolitics[7] Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight[5] Lean R
CQ Politics[8] Toss-up
The New York Times[9] Toss-up
CNN[10] Toss-up
NPR[5] Lean R
MSNBC[5] Toss-up
Fox News[11] Toss-up
Associated Press[12] Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports[13] Toss-up

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Indiana

Pre-election polling was always tight, although McCain generally had a slight lead in 3 poll averages throughout the entire general election, including the final weeks of the election. Rasmussen Reports never had Obama winning a state poll. In the last opinion polling before the election, conducted by Public Policy Polling (October 31-November 2, 2008), Barack Obama led John McCain 49% to 48%. The final 3 poll average gave McCain the lead 49% to 46%, with undecided voters deciding the election.[14]

Fundraising

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John McCain raised a total of $1,758,471 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,400,475.[15]

Advertising and visits

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Obama massively outspent McCain in this state. Obama and his interest groups spent $17,796,704. McCain and his interest groups spent $3,160,264.[16] The Democratic ticket visited this state 8 times. The Republican ticket visited 5 times.[17]

Analysis

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Historically, Indiana has been the most Republican state in the Great Lakes region. However, polling in September and October showed that Indiana was possibly turning into a swing state in 2008. George W. Bush easily captured Indiana's 11 electoral votes in 2004, defeating Democrat John Kerry by more than 20%. In contrast, most polls from the summer of 2008 onward showed only single-digit margins.[18]

The race was as close as expected. Indiana's polls closed at 6 p.m. local time. The state has often been among the first to be called for the Republican candidate; in 2004, for instance, the state was called for Bush almost as soon as the polls in the Central Time Zone portion of the state closed.[19] However, the race for the state was too close to call at 6pm, sending an early signal of potential upset to voters throughout the rest of the country. Indiana still had not been decided when most media outlets declared Obama president-elect at 11 p.m. Eastern time. Indiana was finally called for Senator Obama at around 6 a.m. Eastern on November 5. Ultimately, Obama ended up carrying Indiana with 1,374,039 votes to John McCain's 1,345,648 votes, a difference of 28,391 votes (approximately 1.03% of the total votes cast). The Libertarian candidate polled 29,257 votes - more than the margin of Obama's win. The result was widely seen as an upset considering Indiana's status as a traditionally Republican state. Obama won the contest with a mixture of excellent ground game and internet-powered outreach to potential voters. The efficient use of social media on a scale never seen before in presidential politics also played a role.

At the same time as Obama captured Indiana's 11 electoral votes, incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels was reelected to a second term with 57.84% of the vote over Democrat Jill Long Thompson who received 40.04%. Libertarian Andy Horning received 2.12%. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Indiana House of Representatives.

After 2008, Indiana quickly returned to being a solidly red state, voting Republican by double-digit margins in every presidential election since. This set it apart from Virginia and North Carolina, the other two states that Obama was the first Democrat to win in several decades. Although, this was also the last election that the Democratic nominee heavily invested or even campaigned in Indiana to this extent. Virginia continued to vote Democratic in presidential elections and to become increasingly Democratic at the state level as well. North Carolina returned to supporting Republican candidates in subsequent elections, but only by relatively narrow margins, with it being considered a key battleground in every presidential election thereafter.

Obama won only 15 of Indiana's counties compared to 77 for McCain.[20] However those 15 counties make up 44% of the state's population. Obama carried the state largely by trouncing McCain in Marion County, home to increasingly Democratic Indianapolis, by over 106,000 votes. Kerry narrowly won Marion County in 2004; prior to that it last supported a Democrat in 1964. Obama also won in Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a noted bellwether; it had voted for the winner of every presidential election all but twice since 1892 (the streak ended in 2020).[21] Not a single county in Indiana voted more Republican in the 2008 election than in 2004. Although Obama lost Allen County, home to Indiana's second largest city, Fort Wayne, by four points, he won in Fort Wayne city proper by 6 points.

Obama also dominated Gary and northwestern Indiana, traditionally the most Democratic region of the state. Many of the voters in this area already knew Obama, as this region makes up most of the Indiana side of the Chicago metropolitan area and the Chicago media market; Obama is from Chicago and has aired ads here for over a decade (dating to his tenure in the Illinois Senate). He also did very well in counties where colleges and universities are located, including St. Joseph (home to South Bend and Notre Dame), Vigo (home to Terre Haute and Indiana State University, Rose–Hulman Institute of Technology, and Saint Mary-of-the-Woods College) Monroe (home to Bloomington and IU), Delaware (home to Muncie and Ball State), Tippecanoe (home to West Lafayette and Purdue), and Porter (home to Valparaiso and Valparaiso University).[22]

McCain dominated Indianapolis's traditionally heavily Republican suburbs, although Obama reduced the Republican margin from past presidential elections.[23] McCain also did well in traditionally Democratic Southern Indiana. Obama only managed to win three counties in this region, one of which was Vanderburgh County, where the city of Evansville is located.

Results

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2008 United States presidential election in Indiana[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Barack H. Obama and Joseph R. Biden Jr. 1,374,039 49.85% +10.59%
Republican John S. McCain and Sarah Palin 1,345,648 48.82% −11.13%
Libertarian Bob Barr 29,257 1.06% +0.36%
No party Others 7,396 0.27% —
Plurality 28,391 1.03%
Turnout 2,756,340 58.8%

By county

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County Barack Obama
Democratic 		John McCain
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 4,928 36.40% 8,404 62.07% 207 1.53% -3,476 -25.67% 13,539
Allen 71,263 47.34% 77,793 51.67% 1,491 0.99% -6,530 -4.33% 150,547
Bartholomew 13,567 43.64% 17,067 54.90% 455 1.46% -3,500 -11.26% 31,089
Benton 1,563 40.95% 2,183 57.19% 71 1.86% -620 -16.24% 3,817
Blackford 2,677 49.12% 2,690 49.36% 83 1.53% -13 -0.24% 5,450
Boone 9,752 36.54% 16,622 62.27% 318 1.19% -6,870 -25.73% 26,692
Brown 3,854 47.85% 4,060 50.40% 141 1.75% -206 -2.55% 8,055
Carroll 3,736 42.77% 4,858 55.61% 142 1.62% -1,122 -12.84% 8,736
Cass 7,011 44.79% 8,346 53.32% 296 1.89% -1,335 -8.53% 15,653
Clark 21,953 45.85% 25,326 52.89% 605 1.27% -3,373 -7.04% 47,884
Clay 4,954 43.48% 6,267 55.00% 174 1.52% -1,313 -11.52% 11,395
Clinton 5,307 42.79% 6,919 55.79% 175 1.41% -1,612 -13.00% 12,401
Crawford 2,286 48.19% 2,393 50.44% 65 1.37% -107 -2.25% 4,744
Daviess 3,370 31.83% 7,098 67.05% 118 1.12% -3,728 -35.22% 10,586
Dearborn 7,123 32.06% 14,886 67.00% 208 0.94% -7,763 -34.94% 22,217
Decatur 3,892 37.06% 6,449 61.40% 162 1.54% -2,557 -24.34% 10,503
DeKalb 7,175 41.78% 9,780 56.95% 219 1.26% -2,605 -15.17% 17,174
Delaware 28,384 56.80% 20,916 41.85% 676 1.36% 7,468 14.95% 49,976
Dubois 8,748 47.05% 9,526 51.23% 319 1.72% -778 -4.18% 18,593
Elkhart 31,398 43.83% 39,396 55.00% 840 1.17% -7,998 -11.17% 71,634
Fayette 4,389 46.30% 4,917 51.87% 173 1.82% -528 -5.57% 9,479
Floyd 16,263 44.35% 19,957 54.43% 447 1.21% -3,694 -10.08% 36,667
Fountain 3,094 41.66% 4,158 55.99% 174 2.35% -1,064 -14.33% 7,426
Franklin 3,404 31.99% 7,018 65.95% 220 2.06% -3,614 -33.96% 10,642
Fulton 3,702 41.11% 5,147 57.15% 157 1.74% -1,445 -16.04% 9,006
Gibson 6,455 42.57% 8,449 55.72% 260 1.72% -1,994 -13.15% 15,164
Grant 11,293 42.87% 14,734 55.93% 317 1.20% -3,441 -13.06% 26,344
Greene 5,709 41.82% 7,691 56.34% 250 1.83% -1,982 -14.52% 13,650
Hamilton 49,704 38.45% 78,401 60.64% 1,174 0.91% -28,697 -22.19% 129,279
Hancock 11,874 34.67% 22,008 64.25% 371 1.08% -10,134 -29.58% 34,253
Harrison 7,288 40.10% 10,551 58.06% 335 1.84% -3,263 -17.96% 18,174
Hendricks 24,548 37.73% 39,728 61.07% 778 1.20% -15,180 -23.34% 65,054
Henry 10,059 47.18% 10,896 51.11% 364 1.70% -837 -3.93% 21,319
Howard 17,871 46.02% 20,248 52.14% 714 1.84% -2,377 -6.12% 38,833
Huntington 5,843 35.72% 10,291 62.91% 223 1.36% -4,448 -27.19% 16,357
Jackson 7,354 42.17% 9,726 55.77% 360 2.07% -2,372 -13.60% 17,440
Jasper 5,044 39.06% 7,669 59.39% 200 1.54% -2,625 -20.33% 12,913
Jay 3,748 45.03% 4,401 52.88% 174 2.09% -653 -7.85% 8,323
Jefferson 6,255 46.30% 7,053 52.21% 202 1.50% -798 -5.91% 13,510
Jennings 5,312 44.87% 6,261 52.88% 266 2.24% -949 -8.01% 11,839
Johnson 21,553 36.66% 36,487 62.07% 746 1.26% -14,934 -25.41% 58,786
Knox 7,569 46.08% 8,639 52.60% 216 1.31% -1,070 -6.52% 16,424
Kosciusko 9,236 30.60% 20,488 67.87% 461 1.53% -11,252 -37.27% 30,185
LaGrange 3,663 38.42% 5,702 59.80% 170 1.78% -2,039 -21.38% 9,535
Lake 139,301 66.64% 67,742 32.41% 1,996 0.95% 71,559 34.23% 209,039
LaPorte 28,258 60.10% 17,918 38.11% 842 1.79% 10,340 21.99% 47,018
Lawrence 7,208 38.89% 11,018 59.45% 308 1.66% -3,810 -20.56% 18,534
Madison 30,152 52.49% 26,403 45.96% 889 1.55% 3,749 6.53% 57,444
Marion 241,987 63.67% 134,313 35.34% 3,790 1.00% 107,674 28.33% 380,090
Marshall 7,889 42.48% 10,406 56.03% 276 1.48% -2,517 -13.55% 18,571
Martin 1,706 34.80% 3,122 63.68% 75 1.53% -1,416 -28.88% 4,903
Miami 5,564 39.30% 8,312 58.72% 280 1.98% -2,748 -19.42% 14,156
Monroe 41,450 65.39% 21,118 33.32% 819 1.29% 20,332 32.07% 63,387
Montgomery 6,013 39.34% 9,060 59.27% 212 1.39% -3,047 -19.93% 15,285
Morgan 10,330 35.85% 18,129 62.92% 352 1.22% -7,799 -27.07% 28,811
Newton 2,625 43.36% 3,301 54.53% 128 2.12% -676 -11.17% 6,054
Noble 7,064 41.54% 9,673 56.88% 270 1.58% -2,609 -15.34% 17,007
Ohio 1,158 39.68% 1,713 58.70% 47 1.61% -555 -19.02% 2,918
Orange 3,390 41.81% 4,536 55.94% 182 2.24% -1,146 -14.13% 8,108
Owen 3,570 43.70% 4,415 54.04% 185 2.26% -845 -10.34% 8,170
Parke 2,924 41.83% 3,909 55.92% 157 2.25% -985 -14.09% 6,990
Perry 5,141 60.55% 3,202 37.71% 147 1.73% 1,939 22.84% 8,490
Pike 2,700 44.79% 3,221 53.43% 107 1.78% -521 -8.64% 6,028
Porter 39,178 52.77% 33,857 45.60% 1,211 1.63% 5,321 7.17% 74,246
Posey 5,828 45.63% 6,804 53.28% 139 1.09% -976 -7.65% 12,771
Pulaski 2,466 41.35% 3,388 56.81% 110 1.84% -922 -15.46% 5,964
Putnam 6,334 43.16% 8,086 55.10% 255 1.74% -1,752 -11.94% 14,675
Randolph 4,839 44.71% 5,788 53.48% 195 1.81% -949 -8.77% 10,822
Ripley 4,187 34.22% 7,794 63.71% 253 2.08% -3,607 -29.49% 12,234
Rush 3,229 42.33% 4,271 55.98% 129 1.69% -1,042 -13.65% 7,629
Scott 4,271 47.80% 4,445 49.75% 219 2.45% -174 -1.95% 8,935
Shelby 6,987 39.69% 10,333 58.70% 282 1.60% -3,346 -19.01% 17,602
Spencer 5,039 49.42% 5,001 49.05% 156 1.53% 38 0.37% 10,196
St. Joseph 68,710 57.87% 48,510 40.85% 1,519 1.28% 20,200 17.02% 118,739
Starke 4,778 50.41% 4,473 47.19% 228 2.41% 305 3.22% 9,479
Steuben 6,284 44.29% 7,674 54.09% 230 1.62% -1,390 -9.80% 14,188
Sullivan 4,284 48.78% 4,343 49.45% 155 1.76% -59 -0.67% 8,782
Switzerland 1,638 45.00% 1,940 53.30% 62 1.70% -302 -8.30% 3,640
Tippecanoe 37,781 55.05% 29,822 43.45% 1,033 1.50% 7,959 11.60% 68,636
Tipton 3,250 41.46% 4,452 56.80% 136 1.73% -1,202 -15.34% 7,838
Union 1,224 36.48% 2,061 61.43% 70 2.09% -837 -24.95% 3,355
Vanderburgh 39,423 50.60% 37,512 48.15% 978 1.26% 1,911 2.45% 77,913
Vermillion 4,003 56.10% 3,010 42.19% 122 1.71% 993 13.91% 7,135
Vigo 25,040 57.06% 18,121 41.29% 723 1.65% 6,919 15.77% 43,884
Wabash 5,456 39.27% 8,238 59.30% 198 1.43% -2,782 -20.03% 13,892
Warren 1,755 43.90% 2,166 54.18% 77 1.93% -411 -10.28% 3,998
Warrick 12,329 42.93% 16,013 55.75% 379 1.32% -3,684 -12.82% 28,721
Washington 4,562 40.19% 6,519 57.43% 271 2.38% -1,957 -17.24% 11,352
Wayne 13,459 46.99% 14,558 50.83% 624 2.18% -1,099 -3.84% 28,641
Wells 4,403 33.64% 8,504 64.98% 181 1.38% -4,101 -31.34% 13,088
White 4,839 44.78% 5,731 53.04% 235 2.17% -892 -8.26% 10,805
Whitley 5,862 38.55% 9,124 59.99% 222 1.46% -3,262 -21.44% 15,208
Totals 1,374,039 49.84% 1,345,648 48.81% 36,971 1.34% 28,391 1.03% 2,756,658
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Although Barack Obama narrowly won the state and its 11 electoral votes, John McCain carried 6 out of 9 congressional districts in Indiana, including two held by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 37.38% 61.76% Pete Visclosky
2nd 44.72% 54.10% Joe Donnelly
3rd 56.22% 42.84% Mark Souder
4th 55.90% 43.03% Steve Buyer
5th 58.90% 39.79% Dan Burton
6th 52.46% 46.18% Mike Pence
7th 28.35% 70.89% André Carson
8th 51.30% 47.41% Brad Ellsworth
9th 49.70% 49.06% Baron Hill

Electors

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Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Indiana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Indiana is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins a plurality of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[25] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[26]

  1. Jeffrey L. Chidester
  2. Butch Morgan
  3. Michelle Boxell
  4. Charlotte Martin
  5. Jerry J. Lux
  6. Connie Southworth
  7. Alan P. Hogan
  8. Myrna E. Brown
  9. Clarence Benjamin Leatherbury
  10. Daniel J. Parker
  11. Cordelia Lewis Burks

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  2. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  6. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  7. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  9. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  13. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  14. ^ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 20, 2009.
  16. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ^ How President Obama pulled off the shock of the 2008 election in Indiana, Elections Daily, April 21, 2020
  19. ^ 2004 election night timeline from Dave Leip's presidential election atlas
  20. ^ "Indiana General Election November 4, 2008, by County". Indiana Secretary of State. November 4, 2008. Retrieved November 7, 2008.
  21. ^ "Obama leads in bellwether Vigo Co". Indianapolis Star. November 4, 2008. Archived from the original on January 26, 2013. Retrieved November 12, 2008.
  22. ^ "'At this defining moment, change has come to America'". Indianapolis Star. November 5, 2008. Archived from the original on November 8, 2008. Retrieved November 5, 2008.
  23. ^ "Obama gains in fast-growing counties". Politico. November 9, 2008. Retrieved November 10, 2008.
  24. ^ "Indiana General Election November 4, 2008, Statewide". Indiana Secretary of State. November 4, 2008. Retrieved November 7, 2008.
  25. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  26. ^ "Electoral College Information". Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita. Archived from the original on July 30, 2008. Retrieved December 15, 2008.
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