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2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey

The 2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg won re-election to a fifth, non-consecutive term, defeating former Republican congressman Dick Zimmer, who was also the nominee for this seat in 1996. This election, alongside the concurrent Senate election in Minnesota, was the last U.S. Senate election in which both major party candidates were Jewish. [1]

2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey
← 2002 November 4, 2008 2013 (special) →
 
Nominee Frank Lautenberg Dick Zimmer
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,951,218 1,461,025
Percentage 56.03% 41.95%
Lautenberg:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Zimmer:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Frank Lautenberg
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Frank Lautenberg
Democratic


Background

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In November 2006, Senator Lautenberg had the lowest approval rating of any Democrat running for re-election in 2008 (with 39% approving and 45% disapproving),[2] with his approval improving only slightly to 42% as of September 2007. In the same September 2007 poll conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, voters surveyed decided that Lautenberg does not deserve re-election (46% to 36%) and that he is too old to effectively serve another six years in the Senate (54% to 40%).[3]

Poll results suggested that given the right formula, this could have been a surprise upset race in November 2008. "The poll shows that Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who many voters say is too old to run for another term, would be vulnerable to a strong Republican candidate next year," according to Quinnipiac pollster Clay Richards.[3]

The first poll conducted after the primaries (Rasmussen Reports, June 4, 2008) showed a tighter than expected race between Lautenberg and Zimmer, with the two candidates in a virtual tie.[4]

However, the prevailing political climate at the time of the election was also a major factor. Voter anger was targeted against the GOP, and many Democrats once considered vulnerable managed to hold on.

Democratic primary

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Main article: 2008 Democratic primary in New Jersey

Candidates

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Polling

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Source Date Frank
Lautenberg 		Rob
Andrews
Joel Benenson[5] April 1–2, 2008 52% 21%
Rasmussen Reports[6] May 15, 2008 49% 19%

Results

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Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Frank Lautenberg 203,012 58.9%
Democratic Rob Andrews 121,777 35.3%
Democratic Donald Cresitello 19,743 5.7%
Total votes 344,532 100.0%

Results by county

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Results by county
County Lautenberg % Andrews % Cresitello %
Atlantic 4,798 45.4% 5,287 50.1% 472 4.5%
Bergen 26,848 78.9% 5,645 16.6% 1,554 4.6%
Burlington 7,757 42.4% 9,483 51.8% 1,059 5.8%
Camden 5,995 16.5% 29,175 80.1% 1,256 3.4%
Cape May 1,433 45.4% 1,566 49.6% 159 5.0%
Cumberland 1,746 46.1% 1,799 47.5% 246 6.5%
Essex 31,844 76.4% 8,671 20.8% 1,190 2.9%
Gloucester 3,135 17.0% 14,775 80.0% 563 3.0%
Hudson 28,446 74.8% 8,233 21.7% 1,343 3.5%
Hunterdon 2,061 58.8% 1,180 33.7% 264 7.5%
Mercer 10,093 74.0% 3,053 22.4% 494 3.6%
Middlesex 17,131 62.0% 7,918 28.7% 2,573 9.3%
Monmouth 10,570 66.3% 3,568 22.4% 1,808 11.3%
Morris 8,432 65.0% 3,151 24.3% 1,394 10.7%
Ocean 8,869 57.9% 5,037 32.9% 1,421 9.3%
Passaic 9,842 79.3% 1,700 13.7% 872 7.0%
Salem 928 31.9% 1,734 59.6% 248 8.5%
Somerset 5,640 64.7% 2,209 25.3% 873 10.0%
Sussex 1,379 52.7% 784 29.9% 456 17.4%
Union 15,103 67.6% 6,179 27.7% 1,060 4.7%
Warren 962 47.4% 630 31.0% 438 21.6%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Results

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Republican primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dick Zimmer 84,663 45.8%
Republican Joseph Pennacchio 74,546 40.3%
Republican Murray Sabrin 25,576 13.8%
Total votes 184,785 100.0%

Official results, New Jersey Division of Elections (PDF, July 11, 2008)

Results by county

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County Zimmer % Pennacchio % Sabrin %
Atlantic 3,909 65% 1,322 22% 810 13%
Bergen 5,145 30% 10,761 62% 1,384 8%
Burlington 8,629 63% 2,869 21% 2,276 16%
Camden 3,123 49% 2,166 34% 1,036 16%
Cape May 3,615 70% 1,034 20% 483 9%
Cumberland 1,566 72% 395 18% 225 10%
Essex 3,592 57% 2,262 36% 493 8%
Gloucester 1,206 26% 2,161 47% 1,254 27%
Hudson 1,487 48% 955 31% 641 21%
Hunterdon 5,519 60% 2,730 30% 977 11%
Mercer 2,555 56% 1,538 34% 488 11%
Middlesex 2,603 33% 4,195 54% 1,021 13%
Monmouth 7,981 56% 4,630 33% 1,510 11%
Morris 8,094 36% 12,700 56% 1,855 8%
Ocean 10,875 48% 4,820 21% 6,778 30%
Passaic 1,271 20% 4,570 72% 545 8%
Salem 769 47% 657 41% 193 12%
Somerset 5,227 46% 4,875 43% 1,170 10%
Sussex 2,850 40% 3,621 51% 647 9%
Union 2,896 32% 4,653 52% 1,388 15%
Warren 1,751 46% 1,632 43% 402 11%

General election

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Candidates

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Major

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Minor

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  • Jeff Boss (I)[12]
  • Daryl Mikell Brooks (I)[12]
  • J.M. Carter (I)[12]
  • Carl Peter Klapper (Write In)[13]
  • Sara Lobman (Socialist Workers)[12]
  • Jason Scheurer (Libertarian)[12]

Debates

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On October 29, 2008, a debate between Lautenberg and Zimmer was held on the radio station NJ 101.5.[14]

On November 1, 2008, the two candidates debated for the second time on New Jersey Network, in the only televised debate agreed to by the Lautenberg campaign.[15]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Safe D October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[17] Likely D October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[18] Safe D November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[19] Likely D October 31, 2008

Polling

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Source Date Frank
Lautenberg (D) 		Dick
Zimmer (R)
Rasmussen Reports[20] June 4, 2008 45% 44%
Quinnipiac University[21] June 5–8, 2008 47% 38%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[22] June 17–22, 2008 45% 28%
Rasmussen Reports[23] July 7, 2008 49% 36%
Strategic Vision[24] July 11–13, 2008 48% 32%
Monmouth University[25] July 17–21, 2008 45% 37%
Club for Growth[26] July 30–31, 2008 35% 36%
Rasmussen Reports[27] August 4, 2008 51% 33%
Quinnipiac University[28] August 4–10, 2008 48% 41%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[29] September 4–7, 2008 46% 35%
Marist College[30] September 5–8, 2008 51% 40%
The Record[31] / Research 2000[32] September 9–11, 2008 49% 41%
Quinnipiac University[33] September 10–14, 2008 48% 39%
Monmouth University[34] September 11–14, 2008 46% 36%
Strategic Vision[35] September 14–16, 2008 47% 40%
Rasmussen Reports[36] September 16, 2008 49% 42%
Survey USA[37] September 27–28, 2008 51% 38%
Strategic Vision[38] September 26–28, 2008 48% 41%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[39] September 29 – October 5, 2008 50% 34%
Rasmussen Reports[23] October 7, 2008 51% 37%
Survey USA[40] October 11–12, 2008 51% 38%
Monmouth University[41] October 15–18, 2008 52% 36%
Quinnipiac University[42] October 16–19, 2008 55% 33%
Marist College[43] October 20–21, 2008 48% 41%
Strategic Vision[44] October 24–26, 2008 49% 41%
Survey USA[45] October 29–30, 2008 52% 37%

Results

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2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Frank Lautenberg (incumbent) 1,951,218 56.03% +2.15%
Republican Dick Zimmer 1,461,025 41.95% −2.00%
Independent Daryl Mikell Brooks 20,920 0.60% n/a
Libertarian Jason Scheurer 18,810 0.54% −0.05
Independent J.M. Carter 15,935 0.46% n/a
Independent Jeff Boss 10,345 0.30% n/a
Socialist Workers Sara Lobman 9,187 0.26% n/a
Total votes 3,482,445 100.00% n/a
Democratic hold

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Rudin, Ken (July 23, 2008). "Who Will Succeed Obama Or McCain In The Senate?". NPR. Retrieved September 10, 2024.
  2. ^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11152". SurveyUSA. November 2006. Retrieved February 5, 2007.
  3. ^ a b "Voters still say Lautenberg is too old". PolitickerNJ.com, September 25, 2007. Accessed April 8, 2008.
  4. ^ "Election 2008: New Jersey Senate - New Jersey Senate Race a Dead Heat" Archived June 22, 2008, at the Wayback Machine, Rasmussen Reports, June 9, 2008. Accessed June 9, 2008.
  5. ^ Joel Benenson
  6. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  7. ^ a b Official results for 2008 primary elections, New Jersey Division of Elections, July 11, 2008 Archived August 6, 2008, at the Wayback Machine)
  8. ^ PolitickerNJ (March 6, 2008). "Bateman considers U.S. Senate bid". Observer. Retrieved August 21, 2021. The race changed yesterday with the surprise withdrawal of Anne Evans Estabrook, a millionaire businesswoman who had courted party leaders for almost a year. Estabrook suffered a mini-stroke on Monday and decided to quickly exit the contest.
  9. ^ Krashuaar, Josh (April 11, 2008). "New Jersey Senate merry-go-round continues". Politico. Retrieved August 21, 2021. Former Goya Foods executive Andrew Unanue, whose campaign was controversy-ridden ever since he announced his candidacy on Easter Sunday, withdrew from the race today and threw his support behind former GOP Rep. Dick Zimmer.
  10. ^ PolitickerNJ (March 6, 2008). "Bateman considers U.S. Senate bid". Observer. Retrieved August 21, 2021.
  11. ^ Wildstein, David (January 12, 2023). "Democrats to Dr. Oz: run for office as a Republican in New Jersey, please". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  12. ^ a b c d e 2008 General Election Candidate Certification Archived October 1, 2008, at the Wayback Machine, New Jersey Division of Elections. Accessed September 28, 2008
  13. ^ "Home". carlpeterklapper.org. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  14. ^ Burton, Cynthia. "Lautenberg and Zimmer spar over issues", The Philadelphia Inquirer, October 30, 2008.
  15. ^ Schwaneberg, Robert. Lautenberg, Zimmer agree to debate on Nov. 1, The Star-Ledger, October 1, 2008.
  16. ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  17. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 31, 2008, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  18. ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  19. ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  20. ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election". Archived from the original on June 22, 2008.
  21. ^ Quinnipiac University
  22. ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  23. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  24. ^ Strategic Vision
  25. ^ Monmouth University
  26. ^ "The Club For Growth - www.clubforgrowth.org". www.clubforgrowth.org. Archived from the original on October 23, 2008. Retrieved January 11, 2022.
  27. ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election". Archived from the original on September 12, 2008.
  28. ^ Quinnipiac University
  29. ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  30. ^ Marist College Archived September 13, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  31. ^ The Record
  32. ^ Research 2000
  33. ^ Quinnipiac University
  34. ^ Monmouth University
  35. ^ Strategic Vision
  36. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  37. ^ Survey USA
  38. ^ Strategic Vision
  39. ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  40. ^ Survey USA
  41. ^ Monmouth University
  42. ^ Quinnipiac University
  43. ^ Marist College Archived January 9, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  44. ^ Strategic Vision
  45. ^ Survey USA
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