The 2008 Lower Saxony state election was held on 27 January 2008 to elect the members of the 16th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Christian Wulff was re-elected with a reduced majority.[1]
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 152 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony 77 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnout | 3,422,552 (57.0%) 10.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 Results for the single-member constituencies | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Campaign
editLower Saxony was seen as a stronghold of the Christian Democratic Union[2] and their leader Christian Wulff was seen as likely to easily defeat the Social Democrats.[3] The election in Lower Saxony took place on the same day as the 2008 Hessian state election; Wulff was seen as a more moderate leader than Roland Koch in Hesse and consequently more likely to perform better in the election.[4] The CDU government had held spending down, introduced tuition fees for university students, while supporting the minimum wage.[5] The Social Democrats (SPD) led their campaign with a call for a national minimum wage for all workers.[6] The SPD leader in Lower Saxony, Wolfgang Jüttner, was little known to voters and unusually during the campaign made an attack on Wolff for his personal life.[7]
Parties
editThe table below lists parties represented in the 15th Landtag of Lower Saxony.
| Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 2003 result | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||
| CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
Christian democracy | Christian Wulff | 48.3% | 91 / 183
| |
| SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
Social democracy | Wolfgang Jüttner | 33.6% | 63 / 184
| |
| FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei |
Classical liberalism | Philipp Rösler | 8.1% | 15 / 183
| |
| Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
Green politics | Stefan Wenzel | 7.6% | 14 / 183
| |
Opinion polling
edit| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
CDU | SPD | FDP | Grüne | Linke | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 state election | 27 Jan 2008 | – | 42.5 | 30.3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 12.2 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14–17 Jan 2008 | 1,001 | 46 | 33 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| Infratest dimap | 14–16 Jan 2008 | 1,000 | 44 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 2–4 Jan 2008 | 1,000 | 45 | 33 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| Emnid | 10 Dec 2007 – 2 Jan 2008 | 800 | 45 | 32 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| AMR Düsseldorf | 29 Dec 2007 | 1,000 | 44 | 34 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–6 Dec 2007 | 1,056 | 44 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 2–5 Nov 2007 | 1,000 | 44 | 33 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| Infratest dimap | 5–10 Oct 2007 | 1,001 | 45 | 33 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| Emnid | 2–6 Oct 2007 | 1,000 | 45 | 31 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| Infratest dimap | 3–5 Sep 2007 | 1,000 | 44 | 34 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| Forsa | 1–14 Aug 2007 | 1,160 | 47 | 29 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| Forsa | 14–29 May 2007 | 1,047 | 46 | 29 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| Infratest | 3–6 May 2007 | 1,000 | 41 | 36 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Forsa | 29 Jan–13 Feb 2007 | 1,193 | 46 | 29 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| Infratest dimap | 19–24 Jan 2007 | 1,000 | 43 | 34 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| Forsa | 2–14 Nov 2006 | 1,080 | 45 | 29 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| Forsa | 25 Sep–17 Oct 2006 | 1,054 | 44 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| Infratest dimap | 23–27 Aug 2006 | 1,000 | 40 | 36 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Forsa | 17 Jul–1 Aug 2006 | 1,086 | 46 | 31 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Forsa | 17 May–6 Jun 2006 | 1,039 | 42 | 36 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 17–22 Feb 2006 | 1,000 | 42 | 37 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Emnid | 7–12 Feb 2005 | 1,000 | 43 | 37 | 7 | 10 | – | 3 | 6 |
| Emnid | 28 Feb 2005 | ? | 44 | 34 | 7 | 10 | – | 5 | 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 26–31 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | 51 | 29 | 8 | 8 | – | 4 | 22 |
| GMS | 28 Nov–1 Dec 2003 | 1,000 | 48.5 | 30.5 | 8.5 | 9.0 | – | 3.5 | 17.0 |
| Emnid | 27–31 May 2003 | 1,000 | 48 | 31 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| 2003 state election | 2 Feb 2003 | – | 48.3 | 33.4 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 14.9 |
Election result
edit| Party | Votes | % | +/- | Seats | +/- | Seats % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Democratic Union (CDU) | 1,455,687 | 42.5 | 5.8
|
68 | 23
|
44.7 | |
| Social Democratic Party (SPD) | 1,035,894 | 30.3 | 3.1
|
48 | 15
|
31.6 | |
| Free Democratic Party (FDP) | 279,557 | 8.2 |  0.1
|
13 | 2
|
8.6 | |
| Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) | 273,934 | 8.0 | 0.4
|
12 | 2
|
7.9 | |
| The Left (Linke) | 243,106 | 7.1 | 6.6
|
11 | 11
|
7.2 | |
| National Democratic Party (NPD) | 52,817 | 1.5 | 1.5
|
0 | ±0 | 0 | |
| Others | 81,557 | 2.4 | 0 | ±0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 3,422,552 | 100.0 | 152 | 31
|
|||
| Voter turnout | 57.0 | 10.0
|
|||||
Outcome
editThe results saw the Christian Democratic Union easily defeat the Social Democrats, despite suffering a drop in votes and seats.[8][9] As a result, their leader Christian Wulff was seen as having strengthened his chances of succeeding national CDU leader Angela Merkel.[10] The 30.3% of the vote that the Social Democrats won was the worst performance by the party in Lower Saxony since the Second World War,[5] which was described as a 'disaster' for the party.[11] Turnout in the election was 57%.[10]
The Left entered the Landtag for the first time with 7.1% of the vote, comfortably exceeding the 5% electoral threshold.[12] Along with the election in Hesse held on the same day in which The Left also won seats, this was the first time they had achieved representation in any large state in western Germany.[13]
References
edit- ^ Kulish, Nicholas (28 January 2008). "Merkel Party's Edge Is Tiny in Crucial State". The New York Times. Retrieved 15 May 2009.
- ^ Benoit, Bertrand (4 December 2007). "Merkel in attack on US-style pay awards". Financial Times. p. 2.
- ^ "Europe: Pay and punishment; Germany's state elections". The Economist. 19 January 2008. p. 34.
- ^ Scally, Derek (26 January 2008). "German state polls apolitical test for Merkel". The Irish Times. p. 11.
- ^ a b "Europe: Hessen lesson; German state elections". The Economist. 2 February 2008. p. 42.
- ^ Benoit, Bertrand (28 December 2007). "SPD to focus on minimum wage". Financial Times. p. 4.
- ^ "Dossier: German State Elections in Hesse and Lower Saxony". Deutsche Welle. 26 January 2008. Retrieved 15 May 2009.
- ^ Quetteville, Harry de (28 January 2008). "Support for Merkel slumps in state poll". The Daily Telegraph. p. 14.
- ^ Benoit, Bertrand (29 January 2008). "Merkel emerges with prize from Hesse poll". Financial Times. p. 2.
- ^ a b Scally, Derek (28 January 2008). "Setback for Merkel as support for CDU slips in state elections". The Irish Times. p. 11.
- ^ "Merkel's CDU suffers setback in two state elections (Roundup)". Monsters and Critics. 28 January 2008. Retrieved 15 May 2009.
- ^ Benoit, Bertrand (28 January 2008). "German elections offer scant cheer for big parties". Financial Times. p. 6.
- ^ Benoit, Bertrand (29 January 2008). "Merkel relief over German poll result". Financial Times. p. 2.