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2019 United States gubernatorial elections

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United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 5, 2019, in Kentucky and Mississippi, and on October 12, 2019, with a runoff on November 16, in Louisiana. These elections formed part of the 2019 United States elections. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2015. The Democrats had to defend an incumbent in Louisiana, while the Republicans had to defend an incumbent in Kentucky plus an open seat in Mississippi. Though all three seats up were in typically Republican states, the election cycle became unexpectedly competitive: Kentucky and Louisiana were seen as highly contested races; and Mississippi's race ultimately became closer than usual, despite being seen as favorable for the Republicans.

2019 United States gubernatorial elections
← 2018 November 5, 2019
October 12 (Louisiana)
November 16 (Louisiana runoff)		 2020 →
3 governorships
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Seats before 27 23
Seats after 26 24
Seat change Decrease 1 Increase 1
Popular vote 1,898,436 1,898,756
Percentage 49.48% 49.49%
Seats up 2 1
Seats won 1 2
2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election
Map of the results
     Democratic gain      Republican hold
     Democratic hold
     No election

Democrats were able to hold their seat in Louisiana and flip the governor's seat in Kentucky, while Republicans successfully kept the Mississippi governorship by winning the open seat. As a result, the Democrats gained a net of one seat, bringing the total number of Democratic governors to 24, while Republicans were reduced to 26 governors, continuing a streak of governor's seat gains by Democrats under Republican President Donald Trump that began in 2017.

This is the first time since 2003 in which a party made a net gain of seats in this cycle of governorships, and the first time since 1991 that Kentucky and Louisiana elected candidates of the same party. Democrats also won the total popular vote for gubernatorial elections for the third year in a row, and for the first time since 1991 in this cycle of governorships, albeit by an extremely narrow margin of 320 votes, or 0.01%. Additionally, these are the first gubernatorial elections since 1981 in which all of the margins of victory were under ten points.

As of 2024, this is the last time an incumbent Republican governor lost re-election. It is also the last time that Democrats won the governorship in Louisiana.

Pre-election composition

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Kentucky and Louisiana were seen as the two competitive races in this cycle.

Kentucky governor Matt Bevin had very low approval ratings over issues such as Medicare expansion, pensions, and education. Bevin was the least popular governor in the United States, with only a 33% approval rating, in April 2019.[1][2][3] When teachers walked out to protest education funding, Bevin blamed them for child molestation and called them "selfish thugs".[4] Bevin also attempted to roll back the state's Medicare expansion, which would've lead to 500,000 people in the state losing their health insurance, and the measure was deeply unpopular in Kentucky and never passed.[5]

In Louisiana, Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards was popular in the deep red state, as he had worked across the aisle with a number of issues such as abortion. Edwards also brought Medicaid expansion to the state, a move that garnered praise and was popular.[6] Even though Edwards was popular, the sheer amount of Republicans in the state made the race competitive.

Mississippi, whose governor was term-limited, was one of the most Republican states in the country and hadn't voted a Democrat as governor since 1999, and Republican Tate Reeves was a long serving public servant in the state. However, a formidable campaign by Democrat Jim Hood made the race closer than initially expected. Hood made bringing Medicaid expansion to Mississippi the central issue of his campaign, which resonated with voters in the state as many people wanted improvements to health care.[7]

Election predictions

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Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each state, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
State PVI Incumbent[8] Last
race 		Cook
Oct 15,
2019[9] 		IE
Nov 8,
2019[10] 		Sabato
Nov 14,
2019[11] 		Result
Kentucky R+15 Matt Bevin 52.5% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Beshear
49.2% D (flip)
Louisiana R+11 John Bel Edwards 56.1% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Edwards
51.3% D
Mississippi R+9 Phil Bryant (term-limited) 66.4% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Reeves
51.9% R

Race summary

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Results

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State Incumbent Party First
elected 		Result Candidates
Kentucky Matt Bevin Republican 2015 Incumbent lost re-election.
New governor elected.
Democratic gain.
Louisiana John Bel Edwards Democratic 2015 Incumbent re-elected.
Mississippi Phil Bryant Republican 2011 Incumbent term-limited.
New governor elected.
Republican hold.
  • ▌ Y Tate Reeves (Republican) 51.9%
  • ▌Jim Hood (Democratic) 46.8%
  • ▌David Singletary (Independent) 1.0%

Closest States

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States where the margin of victory was under 1%:

  1. Kentucky, 0.37%

States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%:

  1. Louisiana, 2.66%

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%:

  1. Mississippi, 5.08%

Red denotes states won by Republicans. Blue denotes states won by Democrats.

Kentucky

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Main article: 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election
2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election
 
← 2015 November 5, 2019 2023 →
     
Nominee Andy Beshear Matt Bevin
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Jacqueline Coleman Ralph Alvarado
Popular vote 709,890 704,754
Percentage 49.2% 48.8%
 
County results
Beshear:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Bevin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Matt Bevin
Republican

Elected Governor

Andy Beshear
Democratic

The Democratic nominee, Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear, defeated Republican incumbent Matt Bevin by a margin of just over 5,000 votes, or 0.37%, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Kentucky since 1899 by votes, and the closest ever by percentage.[12]

Bevin won 97 counties, while Beshear won only 23 counties.[13] Beshear carried only two of the state's six congressional districts, but those districts were the state's two most urbanized, the Louisville-based 3rd and the Lexington-based 6th.[14]

Bevin conceded on November 14,[15] after a recanvass took place that day[16][15][17] that did not materially change the vote count.[15] Libertarian John Hicks also qualified for the ballot and received 2% of the vote. Statewide turnout was just over 42%,[18] much higher than for the 2015 gubernatorial election. The result was a major swing from 2016, when Donald Trump won the state by 30 points and Republicans gained a supermajority in both chambers of the Kentucky General Assembly.

Kentucky Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Bevin (incumbent) 136,060 52.36
Republican Robert Goforth 101,343 38.99
Republican William Woods 14,004 5.39
Republican Ike Lawrence 8,447 3.25
Total votes 259,854 100.00
Kentucky Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Beshear 149,438 37.88
Democratic Rocky Adkins 125,970 31.93
Democratic Adam Edelen 110,159 27.92
Democratic Geoff Young 8,923 2.26
Total votes 394,490 100.00
Kentucky general election[19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Andy Beshear 709,890 49.20% +5.38
Republican Matt Bevin (incumbent) 704,754 48.83 –3.72
Libertarian John Hicks 28,433 1.97 N/A
Total votes 1,443,077 100.00%
Democratic gain from Republican

Louisiana

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Main article: 2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election
See also: 2019 Louisiana lieutenant gubernatorial election
2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election
 
← 2015 November 16, 2019 2023 →
     
Nominee John Bel Edwards Eddie Rispone
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 774,498 734,268
Percentage 51.3% 48.7%
 
Parish results
Edwards:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Rispone:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Governor before election

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

Incumbent Democratic governor John Bel Edwards won reelection to a second term, defeating Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. Edwards became the first Louisiana Democrat to secure consecutive terms since Edwin Edwards (no relation to John Bel Edwards) in 1975. It was the closest Louisiana gubernatorial election since 1979.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. Because no candidate received an absolute majority of the vote during the primary election on October 12, 2019, a runoff election was held on November 16, 2019, between the top two candidates in the primary, Edwards and Rispone.[20] Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar top two primary system).

According to the Louisiana Secretary of State more than 384,000[21] early votes were cast, a significant increase from the 2015 gubernatorial election in which 234,000[22] early votes were cast.

Louisiana blanket primary[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards (incumbent) 625,970 46.59
Republican Eddie Rispone 368,319 27.42
Republican Ralph Abraham 317,149 23.61
Democratic Oscar Dantzler 10,993 0.82
Republican Patrick Landry 10,966 0.82
Independent Gary Landrieu 10,084 0.75
Total votes 1,343,481 100.00
Louisiana general election[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Bel Edwards (incumbent) 774,498 51.33% –4.78
Republican Eddie Rispone 734,268 48.67 +4.78
Total votes 1,508,784 100.00%
Democratic hold

Mississippi

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Main article: 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election
2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election
 
← 2015 November 5, 2019 2023 →
     
Nominee Tate Reeves Jim Hood
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 459,396 414,368
Percentage 51.91% 46.83%
 
County results
Reeves:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Hood:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Governor before election

Phil Bryant
Republican

Elected Governor

Tate Reeves
Republican

Incumbent governor Phil Bryant was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent attorney general Jim Hood, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Mississippi; the Republican Party nominated incumbent lieutenant governor Tate Reeves after a runoff.

Situated in the Deep South, Mississippi is one of the most Republican states in the country. No Democrat has been elected to the governorship since Ronnie Musgrove in 1999. However, the state's Democratic Attorney General, Jim Hood, who had held his office since 2004 and had yet to lose a statewide election, put the Republican's winning streak of four elections in a row to the test, as the race became unusually competitive. Reeves defeated Hood in the general election by a margin of 5.1%, making this the closest a Democrat had come to winning a Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999, where Musgrove won with 49.6% of the vote.[25] Hood flipped the counties of Chickasaw, Lafayette, Madison, Panola, and Warren, which had all voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2016 United States presidential election.

Mississippi Republican primary[26]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tate Reeves 187,312 48.90
Republican Bill Waller Jr. 128,010 33.42
Republican Robert Foster 67,758 17.68
Total votes 383,080 100.00
Mississippi Republican primary runoff[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tate Reeves 179,623 54.13
Republican Bill Waller Jr. 152,201 45.87
Total votes 331,824 100.00
Mississippi Democratic primary[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jim Hood 208,634 69.00
Democratic Michael Brown 33,247 10.99
Democratic Velesha Williams 20,844 6.89
Democratic Robert Shuler Smith 20,395 6.74
Democratic Robert Ray 5,609 1.85
Democratic William Bond Compton Jr. 5,321 1.76
Democratic Albert Wilson 5,122 1.69
Democratic Gregory Wash 3,218 1.06
Total votes 302,390 100.00
Mississippi general election[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Tate Reeves 459,396 51.91% –14.47
Democratic Jim Hood 414,368 46.83% +14.58
Independent David Singletary 8,522 0.96% N/A
Constitution Bob Hickingbottom 2,625 0.30% N/A
Total votes 884,911 100.00%
Republican hold

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Alan Greenblatt (May 20, 2019). "Why America's Least Popular Governor Will Likely Get Reelected". Governing.
  2. ^ Martin, Jonathan (October 29, 2019). "Kentucky Governor's Race Tests Impact of Impeachment in States". The New York Times.
  3. ^ Craven, Julia (November 6, 2019). "Beshear Beats Bevin in Kentucky Governor's Race". Slate. Archived from the original on November 6, 2019. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
  4. ^ Golshan, Tara. "Matt Bevin's defeat in Kentucky wasn't just about him". Vox. Retrieved November 30, 2019.
  5. ^ Weixel, Nathan. "Democrats make Medicaid center of Kentucky governor fight". The Hill. Retrieved November 30, 2019.
  6. ^ Jaspen, Bruce. "In Blow To Trump's Medicaid Policies, Democrat Wins In Louisiana". Forbes. Retrieved November 30, 2019.
  7. ^ Inskeep, Steve. "Mississippi Governor Election Preview". NPR. Retrieved November 30, 2019.
  8. ^ Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
  9. ^ "2020 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-04-19.
  10. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-03-16.
  11. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 Governor". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Archived from the original on 2019-03-25. Retrieved 2019-03-16.
  12. ^ "Watch live: Democrat Andy Beshear speaks after declaring victory in Kentucky election". CBS News. November 6, 2019. Retrieved 6 November 2019.
  13. ^ "Voter turnout for 2019 general election". WKYT. November 6, 2019.
  14. ^ J. Miles Coleman. "... Beshear carried #KY03 (Louisville) by 37% & #KY06 (metro Lexington) by 14%. He only won two CDs, but his districts also had the highest turnout. Beshear also kept #KY04 (Cincy suburbs) close," Twitter.
  15. ^ a b c "Gov. Matt Bevin won't contest results, concedes from gubernatorial race". WLKY. 14 November 2019. Retrieved 14 November 2019.
  16. ^ Lemieux, Melissa (November 5, 2019). "Gov. Matt Bevin refuses to concede Kentucky race, even after Secretary of State calls it for Democrat Andy Beshear". Newsweek. Retrieved 6 November 2019.
  17. ^ Barton, Ryland (2019-11-06). "Kentucky GOP Gov. Bevin Officially Requests Recanvass Of Election Results". NPR.org. Retrieved 2019-11-07.
  18. ^ ACQUISTO, Alex. "Voter turnout tops 41 percent in tight race for Kentucky governor". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved November 5, 2019.
  19. ^ "2019 General Election". Kentucky State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
  20. ^ "Elections Calendar 2019" (PDF). www.sos.la.gov. Retrieved March 13, 2023.
  21. ^ "Louisiana Secretary of State Statistics" (PDF).
  22. ^ "Louisiana Secretary of State Statistics" (PDF).
  23. ^ "Unofficial Results". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 12, 2019.
  24. ^ "Louisiana Secretary of State - Live Election Results". voterportal.sos.la.gov. Retrieved 17 November 2019.
  25. ^ Collins, Sean (2019-11-05). "Republican Tate Reeves wins a surprisingly close race, becoming Mississippi's next governor". Vox. Retrieved 2019-11-06.
  26. ^ "2019 Republican". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 18, 2019. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  27. ^ "2019 Republican Primary Runoff". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on September 30, 2019. Retrieved September 30, 2019.
  28. ^ "2019 Democratic Primary". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 18, 2019. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  29. ^ "2019 GENERAL ELECTION". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on December 5, 2019. Retrieved December 4, 2019.
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