The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027 to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.
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57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
editUnder Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027.[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.
Current standings
edit| Party | 2023 | Gain/(loss) due to | Current | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resignation as MLA |
Removed from caucus |
Byelection flip | ||||
| New Democratic | 34 | (1) | 1 | 34 | ||
| Progressive Conservative | 22 | (1) | 21 | |||
| Liberal | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Independent | – | 1 | 1 | |||
| Total | 57 | (1) | – | 1 | 57 | |
Timeline
edit| Seat | Before | Change | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party | |
| Tuxedo | May 6, 2024 | Heather Stefanson | █ PC | Resignation[3] | July 8, 2024[4] | Carla Compton | █ New Democratic |
| Fort Garry | September 16, 2024 | Mark Wasyliw | █ New Democratic | Removed from caucus[5] | █ Independent | ||
2023
edit- October 3: The 2023 Manitoba general election is held, resulting in a majority for the New Democratic Party. The Progressive Conservative Party becomes the Official Opposition, and the Liberal Party is reduced to one seat. PC leader Heather Stefanson announces her intent to resign once her successor is chosen, while she will remain as MLA for Tuxedo. Dougald Lamont resigns as Liberal leader on election night after he loses his seat of Saint Boniface.[6]
- October 17: Cindy Lamoureux, MLA for Tyndall Park, is selected as interim leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.[7]
- October 18: The NDP Cabinet is sworn in.[8]
2024
edit- January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson.
- April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election will be held to fill the seat on June 18.
- June 18: New Democrat Carla Compton wins the Tuxedo by-election, gaining the seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
- September 16: Mark Wasyliw, MLA for Fort Garry, is removed from the NDP caucus and will sit as an independent.
Opinion polling
edit| Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
| Probe Research | Sept 5–15, 2024 | [p 1] | 56% | 34% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 22% |
| Probe Research | May 28 – Jun 9, 2024 | [p 2][p 3] | 51% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 13% |
| Probe Research | Mar 5–18, 2024 | [p 4][p 5] | 49% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 12% |
| Probe Research | Nov 22 – Dec 1, 2024 | [p 6][p 7] | 51% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 13% |
| 2023 general election | October 3, 2023 | [p 8] | 45.63% | 41.86% | 10.63% | 0.77% | 0.74% | 0.37% | — | — | — | 3.77% |
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead | |||||
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | ||||||||
References
edit- ^ Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
- ^ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
- ^ "Former Manitoba premier Heather Stefanson resigning as MLA". CBC News. April 25, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Tuxedo By-election". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
- ^ "MLA Mark Wasyliw removed immediately from NDP caucus, claims Premier Kinew is a 'bully'". CBC News. September 16, 2024.
- ^ Hoye, Bryce (October 3, 2023). "Solid NDP win cements Kinew as 1st First Nations premier in Manitoba history". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
- ^ The Canadian Press (October 17, 2023). "Lone Manitoba Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoureux named party's interim leader". CBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
- ^ Petz, Sarah (October 18, 2023). "Wab Kinew officially sworn in as Manitoba's 1st First Nations premier". CBC News. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
Opinion poll sources
edit- ^ "Honeymoon Continues for Manitoba's NDP (Sept. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
- ^ "NDP Extends Support Within Winnipeg, Across Manitoba (June 2024 Omnibus)". Probe Research. June 14, 2024. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
- ^ "Omni 2406 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
- ^ "March 2024 Manitoba Politics". Probe Research. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Omni 2403 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Manitoba Provincial Politics: December 2023 Probe Omnibus Survey" (PDF). Probe Research. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
- ^ "Omni 2312 ES prov tables.pdf" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ Official Results