2025 German federal election

Federal elections in Germany will be held to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag. They are currently scheduled to be held on 28 September 2025. However, the elections are expected to be brought forward to 23 February due to the collapse of the governing traffic light coalition during the 2024 German government crisis. If held early, the 2025 election would be the fourth snap election in the history of post-war Germany after those in 1972, 1983 and 2005.

2025 German federal election

← 2021 28 September 2025[a] 2029 →

All 630 seats in the Bundestag
316 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Olaf Scholz and Gustavo Petro in New York 2024 (cropped).jpg
Friedrich_Merz_2024.jpg
Robert Habeck 2024 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Olaf Scholz[b] Friedrich Merz Robert Habeck[c]
Party SPD CDU/CSU Greens
Last election 25.7%, 206 seats 24.1%, 197 seats 14.8%, 118 seats

 
2020-02-14 Christian Lindner (Bundestagsprojekt 2020) by Sandro Halank–2.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–039.jpg
Jan van Aken 2023 (cropped).jpg
Heidi Reichinnek.png
Candidate Christian Lindner Alice Weidel Jan van Aken &
Heidi Reichinnek
Party FDP AfD Left
Last election 11.4%, 91 seats 10.4%, 83 seats 4.9%, 39 seats

A map of Bundestag constituencies to be used at the next election.

Incumbent Government

Scholz cabinet
SPDGreenFDP[d]



Background

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The Federal Cabinet recommended 28 September as the date of the election, which was approved by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.[1] Following a government crisis, FDP leader Christian Lindner was dismissed from the incumbent government by Olaf Scholz on 6 November 2024, triggering the collapse of the traffic light coalition and leaving the government without a majority.[2][3][4]

Scholz announced that he would submit a motion of confidence to the Bundestag on 11 December 2024, which is expected to be brought to a vote on 16 December.[5] If the Bundestag does not give him a majority vote of confidence, he can propose a dissolution of the Bundestag to President Steinmeier. The President is not obliged to grant one, but in the likely case he chooses to do so, the governing parties and the opposition CDU/CSU have agreed to recommend 23 February 2025 as the date for the snap election.[6][7][8]

Electoral system

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Date assignment process

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The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday[e] no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021.[9] Therefore, the next election must take place on a Sunday between 31 August 2025 and 26 October 2025, with 28 September being scheduled.

Federal elections can be held earlier if the president of Germany dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

  1. If the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot of a chancellor's election, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
  2. If the chancellor loses a confidence motion, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president is free to grant or to deny the chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution.[10][11][f] Under both scenarios, a snap election is not possible during a state of defence. Federal elections can also be held later, if a state of defence is declared. If a state of defence prohibits a scheduled federal election and prolongs a legislative period, new elections have to take place no later than six months after the end of the state of defence.

Electoral system

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Background

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Traditionally, Germany has used a mixed electoral system of majority and proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the first vote is used to directly elect a candidate in their own constituency, and the second vote is used to decide the proportional distribution of parliamentary seats between the parties. This mixed system can lead to a high number of additional parliamentary seats. After the 2021 German federal election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – which made it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system of awarding overhang and leveling seats in place since the 2013 election. The Scholz cabinet passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of future Bundestags at 630 members by strengthening the proportional element of the previous mixed-member electoral system through various measures; namely the abolition of the rule that successful constituency candidates enter the Bundestag independently of the party's second vote result ('overhang mandates'), and the abolition of the previously applicable basic mandate clause as an alternative to the 5%-threshold. The law was subject to constitutional challenges; the CSU and The Left appealed to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to veto it; nevertheless, Steinmeier signed the bill after personally determining he believed it was constitutional.[12][13] Both party organizations, as well as the government of Bavaria controlled by the CSU, filed formal complaints to the Federal Constitutional Court.[14][15] Hearings were held on 23 and 24 April 2024. On 30 July 2024, the court upheld the new electoral law with some modifications; above all, the court ruled that a 5% threshold is unconstitutional if there is no alternative basic mandate clause that stipulates that a certain number of constituencies won is also sufficient for a party to enter parliament.[16] In a rare move, the court ruled directly that the basic mandate clause must be reinstated for the next federal election. However, the Bundestag can alternatively decide to abolish or significantly reduce the 5% hurdle for the election after next and for further future elections.[16]

Electoral system used in the 2025 election

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The Bundestag has 630 seats, which are distributed among the states according to the size of the population eligible to vote. Each voter has two votes: a first vote, which is used to directly elect a constituency candidate, and a second vote to elect a party's closed state list, which is used to decide how the seats are distributed proportionately. When allocating seats, the first step is to determine how many seats each party is entitled to in which state based solely on the second votes. These seats are then filled first with the party's successful constituency winners in that state and secondly (if there are still seats left to fill after that) candidates from the state list. If, on the other hand, more candidates of a party have won their constituency than the party is entitled to seats in the state, only the corresponding number of constituency winners is elected to the Bundestag; for this purpose, consituency winners are ranked according to their percentage of first votes in the constituencies. The constituency winners who do not receive a seat are then, in the order of this ranking, substitutes for the duration of the legislative period; only after them would candidates from the state list be considered as substitutes.

In principle, a party can only win seats in the Bundestag if it has received at least 5% of the second votes at the federal level or if it has won at least three constituencies through the first votes. However, parties that represent national minorities are exempt from the threshold and the basic mandate clause. Another exception applies to non-partisan constituency candidates; these receive a seat in the Bundestag if they win their constituency (seats won in this way would be subtracted from the basic number of 630 seats when the seats are distributed among the parties).

Political parties and leaders

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The table below lists the parties represented in the 20th Bundestag.

Parties Leader(s) Leading candidate(s) Ideology Seats Status
Last election Before election
Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Saskia Esken
Lars Klingbeil
Olaf Scholz Social democracy
206 / 736
207 / 733
Governing coalition
CDU/CSU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Friedrich Merz Friedrich Merz[17] Christian democracy
152 / 736
153 / 733
Opposition
Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Markus Söder
45 / 736
43 / 733
Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Franziska Brantner
Felix Banaszak
Robert Habeck[g][18] Green politics
118 / 736
117 / 733
Governing coalition
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Christian Lindner Christian Lindner[19] Liberalism
91 / 736
90 / 733
Opposition
Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Alice Weidel
Tino Chrupalla
Alice Weidel[20] Right-wing populism
83 / 736
76 / 733
The Left
Die Linke
Ines Schwerdtner
Jan van Aken
Heidi Reichinnek
Jan van Aken[21]
Democratic socialism
39 / 736
28 / 733
Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht
Sahra Wagenknecht
Amira Mohamed Ali
Sahra Wagenknecht Left-wing populism
Socialism
0 / 736
10 / 733
Ungrouped SSW Christian Dirschauer Stefan Seidler Danish minority interests
Frisian minority interests
1 / 736
1 / 733
AfD Matthias Helferich
0 / 736
1 / 733
Independent
0 / 736
7 / 733

Campaign

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Nominations

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In contrast to the 2021 election, the Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question) for the CDU/CSU bloc was resolved relatively quickly. After good performances for the CDU in September 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the two other prospective candidates – North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria Minister-President and CSU leader Markus Söder – expressed their full support for Friedrich Merz.[22][23] Söder was thought to pursue another attempt at the nomination; many CDU rank-and-file, however, saw him in a negative light after a months-long battle with Armin Laschet for the nomination in 2021, followed by personal attacks on Laschet that were seen as undermining the Union campaign, as well as his categorical ruling-out of any coalition with the Greens after this election.[24] (The CSU has still only provided the Union bloc's lead candidate twice: in 1980 and 2002.)

At The Left's party convention in October, former lead candidate Gregor Gysi announced an effort called Mission Silberlocke ("Mission Silver Locks") to bolster the party's prospects in the face of in-fighting and faltering polling. Gysi committed to run for re-election in his constituency of Berlin-Treptow – Köpenick, with former parliamentary group leader Dietmar Bartsch running for a third time in Rostock – Landkreis Rostock II and outgoing Minister-President of Thuringia Bodo Ramelow – the only Left member to have led a state government – contesting a Bundestag seat for the first time in Erfurt – Weimar – Weimarer Land II. The goal is to capitalize on the three men's relatively high personal popularities and give The Left the best chance possible to win three constituencies and ensure they remain in the Bundestag, and the effort is nicknamed in humorous reference to the their advanced ages. Party leader Schwerdtner is also running in the stronghold of Berlin-Lichtenberg and parliamentary group leader Sören Pellmann is seeking re-election in Leipzig II, which are both seen as likely holds for The Left. Experts also rated Gysi and Ramelow as favorites to win their respective constituencies, which combined would retain the bloc's representation.[25][26]

In November, various SPD legislators and leading figures – most prominently former party leader Sigmar Gabriel – began publicly calling for defence minister Boris Pistorius to be designated the party's chancellor candidate owing to its and Scholz's poor polling.[27] Polling for ARD showed Pistorius as the most favorably viewed national politician: 60% of voters thought he would be a good chancellor, compared to 42% for Merz and 21% for Scholz.[28] In a video released on 21 November, Pistorius ended what had become two weeks of public debate by disavowing any interest in running for chancellor and expressing his full support for Scholz.[29] Such a protracted and public debate, and party leadership's apparent inability to quickly control or restrain it, was seen as embarrassing and damaging; Jusos president Philipp Türmer directly called out Esken and Klingbeil for the "shitshow" at their national congress the following weekend. Nonetheless, Scholz was unanimously renominated as chancellor candidate by the party's executive on 25 November, which will be confirmed at the party's national convention in January.[30]

FDP "D-Day" paper

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On 15 November, Die Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung independently reported that the FDP had been planning a strategy to break the coalition for several weeks.[31][32] They reported on the existence of a detailed working paper which used controversial militaristic language: the 18-page economic report that resulted in Lindner's firing was called "the torpedo", and the upcoming election campaign was described as "open battle". Most contentious was that the day of its publication was referred to as "D-Day" – which in German is used exclusively in reference to the Allied invasion of Normandy and has a violent connotation, whereas the equivalent generic term for "decision day" would be Tag X. The use of the language of war to refer to the political process led to heavy criticism.[33][34]

This also contradicted Lindner's assertion that the end of the government was a "calculated break" on the part of Scholz.[33] Criticism came from the SPD upon the revelation that their coalition partner had apparently not been acting in good faith for weeks: parliamentary leader Rolf Mützenich described himself as "feeling deceived and disappointed" and "horrified" by the controversial language.[35] In an 18 November interview with RTL and n-tv, FDP general secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai flatly denied the use of the term "D-Day" and stated the party's leadership was not aware of the paper. Lindner did not deny the paper's existence, but simply replied to reporters "We are in a campaign. Where is the news here?"[35]

Media speculation continued as to what degree the FDP was responsible for the coalition's end. On the morning of 28 November, the online news portal Table.Media published excerpts of an 8-page document alleged to be the working paper; it was indeed titled "D-Day Scenarios and Actions" and laid out a strategy as detailed as the original reporting surmised, including strategies to undermine the coalition, communication tactics, and pre-written quotations for Lindner. SZ confronted party leaders with the excerpts and gave them a 1:30 p.m. deadline to respond to questions. The party did not, but instead officially released the full paper at 6 p.m. with a statement from Djir-Sarai claiming it was "to prevent false impressions...of the paper" by the media.[36]

According to the party, the paper was first prepared by Federal Managing Director Carsten Reymann on 24 October "to deal with the questions surrounding how the exit of the FDP from the government could be communicated", and the "purely technical paper" was not presented to legislators or members of the government.[37] Djir-Sarai and Reymann resigned the next day to take responsibility for the paper's contents. SPD acting general secretary Matthias Miersch described Djir-Sarai as "a transparent sacrificial lamb" to protect Lindner and called it "unimaginable" that the party leader would not know of the paper's existence.[38] In a written statement released that evening, Lindner again denied any knowledge of the paper and stated he would not have approved of it, and that it was only circulated among internal party staffers and not any elected officials.[39]

Members of Parliament standing down

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Name Party State Constituency Member since Ref.
Andreas Rimkus SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Düsseldorf II 2013 [40]
Peter Ramsauer CSU Bavaria Traunstein 1990 [41]
Renate Künast Green Berlin N/A 2002 [42]
Niels Annen SPD Hamburg Hamburg-Eimsbüttel 2005 [43]
Sarah Ryglewski SPD Bremen N/A 2017 [44]
Annette Widmann-Mauz CDU Baden-Württemberg Tübingen 1998 [45]
Yvonne Magwas CDU Saxony N/A 2013 [46]
Nadine Schön CDU Saarland St. Wendel 2009 [47]
Michelle Müntefering SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Herne – Bochum II 2013 [48]
Markus Grübel CDU Baden-Württemberg N/A 2002 [49]
Andreas Scheuer CSU Bavaria Passau 2002 [50]
Kai Gehring Green North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2005 [51]
Sönke Rix SPD Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2005 [52]
Manuela Rottmann Green Bavaria N/A 2017 [53]
Volkmar Klein CDU North Rhine-Westphalia Siegen-Wittgenstein 2009 [54]
Paul Lehrieder CSU Bavaria Würzburg 2005 [55]
Christoph Hoffmann CDU Baden-Württemberg N/A 2017 [56]
Katrin Budde SPD Saxony-Anhalt N/A 2017 [57]
Dietmar Nietan SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2005 [58]
Michael Gerdes SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2009 [59]
Tabea Rößner Green Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2009 [60]
Kordula Schulz-Asche Green Hesse N/A 2017 [55]
Erwin Rüddel CDU Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2009 [61]
Heike Baehrens SPD Baden-Württemberg N/A 2013 [62]
Michael Roth SPD Hesse Werra-Meißner – Hersfeld-Rotenburg 1998 [63]
Thomas Hitschler SPD Rhineland-Palatinate Südpfalz 2013 [64]
Astrid Damerow CDU Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2017 [65]
Tobias Lindner Green Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2011 [66]
Martin Rosemann SPD Baden-Württemberg N/A 2013 [67]
Sven-Christian Kindler Green Lower Saxony N/A 2017 [68]
Oliver Grundmann CDU Lower Saxony N/A 2013 [69]
Christine Aschenberg-Dugnus FDP Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2017 [55]
Maria Klein-Schmeink Green North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2017 [70]
Dagmar Andres SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Euskirchen – Rhein-Erft-Kreis II 2021 [71]
Michael Grosse-Brömer CDU Lower Saxony Harburg 2002 [72]
Hermann Gröhe CDU North Rhine-Westphalia Neuss I 1994 [73]
Udo Schiefner SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2013 [74]
Max Straubinger CSU Bavaria N/A 1994 [75]
Bernd Westphal SPD Lower Saxony N/A 2013 [76]
Beate Walter-Rosenheimer Green Bavaria N/A 2012 [77]

Opinion polls

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Local regression of polls conducted

Notes

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  1. ^ Expected to be brought forward to 23 February as a result of the 2024 German government crisis.
  2. ^ Scholz is the designated candidate for Chancellor. The SPD's co-leaders are Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil.
  3. ^ Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck are co-lead candidates, while Habeck is candidate for Chancellor as "Candidate for the people in Germany" (German: Kandidat für die Menschen in Deutschland).
  4. ^ Only SPD and Grüne remained in government following Christian Lindner's dismissal.
  5. ^ In Germany, with the exception of the German Unity Day, all holidays are determined on the state level, and because of that, they do not necessarily apply for all German states. Currently, legal holidays in all states are New Year's Day, Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labour Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, German Unity Day, First Christmas Day, and Second Christmas Day (Boxing Day).
  6. ^ Possibility 1 has not happened since 1949; possibility 2 has been used a total of three times (in 1972, 1982, and 2005).
  7. ^ prospected

References

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  1. ^ "Germany's president approves the date for next year's national election". Associated Press. 23 August 2024. Archived from the original on 23 August 2024. Retrieved 23 August 2024.
  2. ^ tagesschau.de. "Kanzler Scholz will im Januar Vertrauensfrage stellen" [Chancellor Scholz wants to ask for a vote of confidence in January]. tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 6 November 2024. Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  3. ^ "Germany's governing coalition collapses". Deutsche Welle. Archived from the original on 9 November 2024. Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  4. ^ von der Burchard, Hans; Nöstlinger, Nette; Buchsteiner, Rasmus (6 November 2024). "German government coalition collapses as Scholz sacks Finance Minister Lindner". Politico. Archived from the original on 9 November 2024. Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  5. ^ Völkner, Paula (11 November 2024). "Scholz bei Miosga zum Ampel-Aus: Vertrauensfrage "vor Weihnachten" möglich – Neuwahlen rücken näher" [Scholz at miosga on the end of the traffic light coalition: vote of confidence "before Christmas" possible – new elections are getting closer]. FR.de. Frankfurter Rundschau. Archived from the original on 12 November 2024. Retrieved 11 November 2024.
  6. ^ "Einigung auf Neuwahl des Bundestags am 23. Februar" [Agreement on New Parliamentary Elections on 23 February]. Tagesschau (in German). 12 November 2024. Archived from the original on 12 November 2024. Retrieved 12 November 2024.
  7. ^ "Neuwahlen sollen am 23. Februar stattfinden" [New elections are scheduled to take place on 23 February]. tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 12 November 2024. Retrieved 12 November 2024.
  8. ^ "President calls German early election plan 'realistic'". Deutsche Welle. Archived from the original on 14 November 2024. Retrieved 12 November 2024.
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  16. ^ a b Frank Bräutigam; Kolja Schwartz. "Bundesverfassungsgericht kippt das neue Wahlrecht in Teilen" [Federal Constitutional Court overturns the new electoral law in parts]. tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 30 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
  17. ^ "Merz wird Kanzlerkandidat der Union – Söder zieht sich zurück" [Merz becomes the Union's candidate for chancellor - Söder withdraws]. Der Spiegel (in German). 17 September 2024. ISSN 2195-1349. Archived from the original on 17 September 2024. Retrieved 17 September 2024.
  18. ^ Deiß, Matthias. "So begründet Habeck seine Kanzlerkandidatur" [This is how Habeck justifies his candidacy for chancellor]. tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 8 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  19. ^ "FDP-Chef Lindner will seine Partei erneut als Spitzenkandidat in die Bundestagswahl führen Der FDP-Chef Lindner hat angekündigt, seine Partei in die nächste Bundestagswahl zu führen" [After the breakdown of the traffic light coalition - FDP leader Lindner wants to lead his party again as top candidate in the federal election]. deutschlandfunk.de (in German). 7 November 2024. Archived from the original on 14 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  20. ^ "Alice Weidel wird erste Kanzlerkandidatin der AfD" [Weidel becomes AfD's first candidate for chancellor]. n-tv (in German). 27 September 2024. Archived from the original on 30 September 2024. Retrieved 27 September 2024.
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  22. ^ "Kanzlerkandidatur: Prominenter Unionspolitiker erklärt Verzicht - wann gibt Söder auf?". www.nn.de.
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  24. ^ Wendler, Achim (17 September 2024). "Warum Söders Kalkül nicht aufging". tagesschau.de (in German).
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  32. ^ Pausch, Robert (15 November 2024). "Das liberale Drehbuch für den Regierungssturz". Die Zeit (in German).
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  37. ^ "Transparenz: Erklärung des Bundesgeschäftsführers der FDP". www.fdp.de (in German). 28 November 2024.
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  42. ^ Felix Hackenbruch (8 July 2024). ""Es ist Zeit, um Platz für Jüngere zu machen": Renate Künast kündigt Rückzug aus der aktiven Politik an". Der Tagesspiegel. Archived from the original on 8 July 2024.
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  44. ^ Maren Schubart (9 July 2024). "Bremer SPD-Politikerin kündigt Rückzug aus dem Bundestag an". buten un binnen. Archived from the original on 9 July 2024.
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  46. ^ Ulrich Wolf (19 July 2024). "Bundestagsvizepräsidentin Magwas aus Sachsen zieht sich aus Politik zurück". Sächsische Zeitung. Archived from the original on 19 July 2024.
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