Wikipedia

2022 Florida gubernatorial election

(Redirected from Draft:Karla Hernández-Mats)

For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2022 Florida gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election in a landslide[1][2] and defeated the Democratic Party nominee, Charlie Crist, who served as governor of Florida from 2007 to 2011 as a Republican and later as an independent. No Democrat has been elected governor of Florida since 1994.[3][4][5]

2022 Florida gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout53.6% Decrease 9.0 pp
 
Nominee Ron DeSantis Charlie Crist
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jeanette Nuñez Karla Hernández-Mats
Popular vote 4,614,210 3,106,313
Percentage 59.37% 39.97%
DeSantis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Crist:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election

Ron DeSantis
Republican

Elected Governor

Ron DeSantis
Republican

According to exit polls, DeSantis won 65% of White voters, 13% of Black voters, and 58% of Latinos; of the latter group, DeSantis won 69% of Cubans and 56% of Puerto Ricans.[6] DeSantis's large margin of victory was in part due to him flipping Democratic stronghold Miami-Dade County for the first time since 2002, and Palm Beach County for the first time since 1986, as well as winning Hillsborough, Osceola, Pinellas, and St. Lucie counties for the first time since 2006. This was also the first gubernatorial election since 2006 in which a candidate received over 50% of the vote. His 19.4% margin of victory was the largest since 1982 and the largest for a Republican in state history, compared to 0.4% four years earlier. It was also the first time the governorship was won by double digits since 2002, and the first time it was won by over a million votes.[7][8]

Significantly, Crist's 39.9% performance was the worst for a Democratic nominee for governor of Florida since 1916. Republicans won all other statewide races by double digits; this is the first time since the end of Reconstruction that Democrats do not hold at least one of the statewide positions. DeSantis also made large gains among Hispanic voters, becoming the first Republican in decades to win a majority of those voters.[6][9] He also had a major fundraising advantage over Crist, setting an all-time record for a gubernatorial candidate.[10]

Some analysts believe that this election indicates that Florida has transitioned from being a swing state into a reliable red state.[11][12]

Qualifying for the ballot

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To qualify for the ballot in Florida, partisan candidates must first file with the Division of Elections of the Florida Department of State. After filing, a candidate must then qualify for the ballot by a deadline by either paying qualifying fees totaling 6% of the salary of the position sought, or obtaining sufficiently many signatures. Not all candidates who filed to run for governor subsequently qualified to appear on the ballot.[13]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Failed to qualify

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Ron DeSantis

U.S. senators

Organizations

Democratic primary

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Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried finished second in the primary.

Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Failed to qualify

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Charlie Crist

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Nikki Fried

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Annette Taddeo (withdrawn)

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

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Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Charlie
Crist 		Nikki
Fried 		Other
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[122] February 7 – June 17, 2022 June 20, 2022 40.0% 23.3% 36.7% Crist +16.7
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Charlie
Crist 		Nikki
Fried 		Annette
Taddeo 		Other Undecided
St. Pete Polls[123] August 20–21, 2022 1,617 (LV) ± 2.4% 59% 30% – – 11%
Change Research (D)[124][A] August 12–14, 2022 702 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 37% – – 16%
University of North Florida[125] August 8–12, 2022 529 (LV) ± 6.0% 43% 47% – 5%[c] 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[126][B] August 8–9, 2022 664 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 35% – – 23%
St. Pete Polls[127] August 2–3, 2022 1,361 (LV) ± 2.7% 56% 24% – – 20%
GBAO (D)[128][A] July 27–31, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 36% – – 12%
Kaplan Strategies[129] July 6, 2022 671 (LV) ± 3.8% 39% 39% – – 22%
GBAO (D)[130][A] June 23–26, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 34% – – 11%
St. Pete Polls[131] June 16–17, 2022 1,007 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 24% – – 27%
Global Strategy Group (D)[132][B] June 8–13, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 34% – – 29%
June 6, 2022 Taddeo withdraws from the race
St. Pete Polls[133] May 2–3, 2022 1,859 (LV) ± 2.3% 52% 19% 5% – 24%
Sachs Media Group[134] April 8–10, 2022 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 35% 20% 4% – 41%
University of North Florida[135] February 7–20, 2022 271 (RV) ± 6.0% 27% 19% 4% 8%[d] 44%
Mason-Dixon[136] February 7–10, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 44% 27% 3% – 26%
Alvarado Strategies (R)[137][C] February 2022 1,007 (LV) ± 3.1% 36% 25% 6% 10% 23%
GBAO (D)[138][A] January 26–31, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 54% 28% 7% – 11%
56% 33% – – 11%
Public Policy Polling (D)[139][B] January 26–27, 2022 582 (LV) ± 4.1% 36% 34% – – 29%
Public Policy Polling (D)[140][B] August 10–11, 2021 274 (LV) ± 5.9% 33% 36% – – 31%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[141] August 4–10, 2021 245 (RV) ± 6.3% 38% 27% – 5% 30%
Political Matrix (R)[142] June 9–11, 2021 660 (LV) ± 4.5% 41% 31% – – 29%
St. Pete Polls[143] May 24–26, 2021 2,752 (RV) ± 1.9% 55% 22% – 11% 12%
Victory Insights (R)[144] May 4, 2021 232 (RV) ± 7.0% 53% 30% – 17%[e] –
SEA Polling (D)[145][D] April 15–20, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 28% 26% 13% – 34%

Results

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Results by county:
  Crist
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Fried
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[146]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Charlie Crist 904,524 59.71%
Democratic Nicole "Nikki" Fried 535,480 35.35%
Democratic Cadance Daniel 38,198 2.52%
Democratic Robert L. Willis 36,786 2.43%
Total votes 1,513,180 100.0%

Running mate selection

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In June 2022, Politico released a shortlist of 18 people who Crist was considering as his running mate.[147] On August 26, four days after Crist won the gubernatorial primary, CBS News reported that he had selected Karla Hernández-Mats, one of the people on the Politico shortlist.[148]

Selected

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  • Karla Hernández-Mats, president of the United Teachers of Dade[147][149]

On shortlist

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Independent and third-party candidates

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Green Party

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Withdrawn

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Independent Party

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Withdrawn

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  • Gizmo Wexler, IT administrator[152]

Libertarian Party

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Declared

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Declined

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Independent candidates

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Declared

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  • Carmen Jackie Gimenez[156]

Failed to qualify

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  • Eugene H. Steele, attorney[157]

Withdrawn

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  • Mark B. Graham, computer technician and candidate for president in 2016[158]
  • Frank Hughes Jr., education consultant[159]
  • Jodi Gregory Jeloudov[160]

Declined

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Write-ins

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Declared

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  • Piotr Blass, perennial candidate[163]
  • James Thompson, pastor

General election

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Debates and forums

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2022 Florida gubernatorial debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn
Ron DeSantis Charlie Crist
1 October 24, 2022 WPEC-TV Liz Quirantes YouTube[164] P P

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[165] Likely R July 22, 2022
Inside Elections[166] Likely R July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[167] Safe R October 31, 2022
Politico[168] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[169] Lean R January 10, 2022
Fox News[170] Likely R May 12, 2022
538[171] Solid R October 18, 2022
Elections Daily[172] Safe R November 7, 2022

Endorsements

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Ron DeSantis (R)

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

  • Dave Kerner, member of the Palm Beach County Commission from the 3rd District (2016–present); former state representative from the 87th district (2012–2016)[179] (Democrat)

Individuals

Organizations

Charlie Crist (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

  • Crist kept his legislative endorsements going into the general election.

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Charlie
Crist (D) 		Other
[f] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[193] October 17 – November 6, 2022 November 8, 2022 54.4% 42.2% 3.4% DeSantis +12.2
FiveThirtyEight[194] October 30, 2022 – November 7, 2022 November 8, 2022 54.5% 42.4% 3.0% DeSantis +12.1
270 to win[195] November 4–7, 2022 November 8, 2022 54.0% 41.8% 4.2% DeSantis +12.2
Average 54.3% 42.1% 3.6% DeSantis +12.2
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Charlie
Crist (D) 		Other Undecided
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[196] November 6–7, 2022 722 (LV) ± 3.8% 52% 48% – –
Research Co.[197] November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 54% 41% 2%[g] 3%
Data for Progress (D)[198] November 2–6, 2022 1,436 (LV) ± 3.0% 57% 42% 2%[h] –
Amber Integrated (R)[199] November 1–2, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 40% 4%[i] 4%
Civiqs[200] October 29 – November 2, 2022 772 (LV) ± 3.9% 54% 45% 1%[j] 1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[201][E] November 1, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 53% 43% 1%[k] 3%
Siena College[202] October 30 – November 1, 2022 659 (LV) ± 4.4% 54% 42% – 3%
Victory Insights[203] October 30 – November 1, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.8% 54% 41% – 5%
Florida State University/YouGov[204] October 20–31, 2022 1,117 (RV) – 53% 43% – –
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[205] October 27–28, 2022 633 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 53% – –
University of North Florida[206] October 17–24, 2022 622 (LV) ± 4.7% 55% 41% 2%[l] 3%
Data for Progress (D)[207] October 19–23, 2022 1,251 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 42% 1%[m] 2%
Cherry Communications (R)[208][F] October 13–23, 2022 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 42% – 5%
Stetson University[209] October 16–20, 2022 644 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 45% – 2%
Florida Atlantic University[210] October 12–16, 2022 719 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 40% 4%[n] 5%
YouGov[211][G] October 11–16, 2022 832 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 43% 4% –
Sachs Media[212] October 15, 2022 600 (LV) – 52% 42% – 6%
RMG Research (R)[213][H] October 10–13, 2022 685 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 42% – 6%
African American Research Collaborative (D)[214][I] October 4–11, 2022 1,250 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 41% – 13%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[215] September 26–28, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 41% 1% 6%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[216][J] September 22–27, 2022 2,860 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 46% – 7%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[217] September 21, 2022 700 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 53% – –
Siena College[218] September 18–25, 2022 669 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 41% 2%[o] 7%
Civiqs[219] September 17–20, 2022 617 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 45% 1%[p] 2%
Suffolk University[220] September 15–18, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 41% 5%[q] 7%
Sachs Media[221] September 10, 2022 600 (LV) – 51% 45% – 4%
Survey Monkey (D)[222][K] September 9–10, 2022 999 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 43% – 8%
563 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% – 3%
Echelon Insights[223] August 31 – September 7, 2022 815 (LV) ± 4.3% 52% 42% – 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[224][E] September 5–6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 50% 45% – 5%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[225] August 29 – September 4, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 43% – 10%
Neighborhood Research and Media[226] August 29 – September 2, 2022 362 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 41% – 9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[227] August 24–31, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 47% – 3%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[228][J] August 25–30, 2022 3,017 (LV) ± 1.8% 48% 45% – 7%
Impact Research (D)[229][L] August 12–18, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 46% – 3%
Cherry Communications (R)[230][F] August 4–15, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 43% – 6%
University of North Florida[231] August 8–12, 2022 1,624 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 42% 6% 2%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[232][J] July 26–31, 2022 2,244 (LV) ± 2.1% 47% 44% – 9%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[233] May 27 – June 4, 2022 714 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 51% – –
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[234][M] Mid-May 2022 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 48% – 5%
Phillips Academy[235] May 7–9, 2022 543 (RV) ± 4.2% 36% 35% – 30%
Saint Leo University[236] February 28 – March 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 33% – 18%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[237] February 23, 2022 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 56% – –
University of North Florida[238] February 7–20, 2022 685 (RV) ± 3.7% 55% 34% – 11%
Mason-Dixon[136] February 7–10, 2022 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 43% – 6%
Suffolk University[239] January 26–29, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 43% 0% 8%
St. Pete Polls[240] November 18–19, 2021 2,896 (LV) ± 1.8% 51% 45% – 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[241] November 9, 2021 867 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 37% 5% 9%
842 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 40% 4% 7%
Saint Leo University[242] October 17–23, 2021 500 (A) ± 4.5% 47% 35% – 18%
VCreek/AMG (R)[243][N] September 23–27, 2021 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 39% 2% 12%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[244] September 11–12, 2021 1,144 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 55% – –
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[245] September 3–5, 2021 1,144 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 55% – –
RMG Research[246] August 21–28, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 38% – 17%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[247] August 20–24, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 36% 5% 9%
977 (LV) 48% 38% 5% 8%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[248] August 14–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 57% – –
Change Research (D)[249][O] August 14–17, 2021 1,585 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 45% – 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[141] August 4–10, 2021 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 43% 3% 7%
Cherry Communications (R)[250][F] July 26 – August 4, 2021 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 43% – 6%
St. Pete Polls[251] August 2–3, 2021 3,952 (LV) ± 1.6% 44% 45% – 11%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[252] June 21, 2021 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 55% 45% – –
Cherry Communications (R)[253][F] April 30 – May 8, 2021 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 41% – 8%
Victory Insights (R)[144] May 4, 2021 600 (RV) ± 4.1% 53% 47% – –
Mason-Dixon[254] February 24–28, 2021 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 52% 41% – 7%
Hypothetical polling

Ron DeSantis vs. Nikki Fried

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Nikki
Fried (D) 		Other Undecided
Cherry Communications (R)[230][F] August 4–15, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 43% – 7%
University of North Florida[255] August 8–12, 2022 1,624 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 43% 5% 2%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[232][J] July 26–31, 2022 2,244 (LV) ± 2.1% 49% 43% – 8%
Saint Leo University[256] February 28 – March 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 27% – 22%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[237] February 23, 2022 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 50% – –
University of North Florida[257] February 7–20, 2022 685 (RV) ± 3.7% 55% 32% – 12%
Mason-Dixon[136] February 7–10, 2022 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 53% 42% – 5%
Suffolk University[239] January 26–29, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 40% 0% 9%
St. Pete Polls[240] November 18–19, 2021 2,896 (LV) ± 1.8% 51% 42% – 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[241] November 9, 2021 867 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 35% 4% 8%
842 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 37% 4% 7%
Saint Leo University[242] October 17–23, 2021 500 (A) ± 4.5% 46% 33% – 21%
VCreek/AMG (R)[243][N] September 23–27, 2021 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 36% 5% 11%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[245] September 3–5, 2021 1,144 (LV) ± 3.1% 52% 48% – –
RMG Research[246] August 21–28, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 38% – 21%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[247] August 20–24, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 36% 4% 11%
977 (LV) 48% 38% 3% 10%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[248] August 14–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 54% – –
Change Research (D)[249][O] August 14–17, 2021 1,585 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 44% – 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[141] August 4–10, 2021 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 40% 2% 7%
Cherry Communications (R)[250][F] July 26 – August 4, 2021 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% – 7%
St. Pete Polls[251] August 2–3, 2021 3,952 (LV) ± 1.6% 45% 42% – 13%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[252] June 21, 2021 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 61% 39% – –
Cherry Communications (R)[253][F] April 30 – May 8, 2021 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 39% – 10%
Victory Insights (R)[144] May 4, 2021 600 (RV) ± 4.1% 53% 47% – –
St. Pete Polls[258] March 22–24, 2021 1,923 (LV) ± 2.2% 45% 45% – 10%
Mason-Dixon[254] February 24–28, 2021 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% – 7%

Ron DeSantis vs. Annette Taddeo

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Annette
Taddeo (D) 		Undecided
Saint Leo University[259] February 28 – March 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 30% 22%
Mason-Dixon[136] February 7–10, 2022 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 53% 37% 10%
Saint Leo University[242] October 17–23, 2021 500 (A) ± 4.5% 47% 28% 25%

Ron DeSantis vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[260][J] July 26–31, 2022 2,244 (LV) ± 2.1% 48% 43% 9%
Data for Progress (D)[261][P] September 15–22, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 44% 14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Val Demings

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Val
Demings (D) 		Undecided
Cherry Communications (R)[253][F] April 30 – May 8, 2021 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 38% –
Victory Insights (R)[144] May 4, 2021 600 (RV) ± 4.1% 54% 46% –

Results

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2022 Florida gubernatorial election[262][263]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ron DeSantis (incumbent)
Jeanette Nuñez (incumbent) 		4,614,210 59.37% +9.78%
Democratic Charlie Crist
Karla Hernandez 		3,106,313 39.97% −9.22%
Independent Carmen Jackie Gimenez
Kyle "KC" Gibson 		31,577 0.41% N/A
Libertarian Hector Roos
Jerry "Tub" Rorabaugh 		19,299 0.25% N/A
Total votes 7,771,399 100.0% N/A
Turnout 7,796,916 53.76%
Registered electors 14,503,978
Republican hold

By county

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By county
County Ron DeSantis
Republican		 Charlie Crist
Democratic		 Other votes Total
votes
% # % # % #
Alachua 42.04% 40,321 57.14% 54,796 0.82% 784 95,901
Baker 89.45% 9,594 10.18% 1,092 0.37% 41 10,725
Bay 78.38% 52,590 21.00% 14,091 0.61% 412 67,093
Bradford 81.29% 8,346 18.04% 1,852 0.67% 69 10,267
Brevard 63.77% 170,562 35.57% 95,131 0.66% 1,760 267,453
Broward 41.97% 251,238 57.35% 343,286 0.68% 4,083 598,607
Calhoun 86.04% 4,180 13.52% 657 0.43% 21 4,858
Charlotte 70.52% 65,473 29.11% 27,031 0.37% 344 92,848
Citrus 74.23% 56,283 25.19% 19,100 0.58% 443 75,826
Clay 74.67% 67,292 24.62% 22,187 0.71% 640 90,119
Collier 71.74% 117,477 27.98% 45,815 0.29% 467 163,759
Columbia 79.19% 18,790 20.18% 4,789 0.62% 148 23,727
DeSoto 76.28% 6,637 23.25% 2,023 0.47% 41 8,701
Dixie 87.30% 5,394 11.90% 735 0.81% 50 6,179
Duval 55.44% 182,569 43.68% 143,837 0.88% 2,913 329,319
Escambia 64.46% 74,608 34.63% 40,076 0.91% 1,053 115,737
Flagler 66.76% 39,183 32.67% 19,177 0.57% 336 58,696
Franklin 73.56% 4,003 25.84% 1,406 0.61% 33 5,442
Gadsden 37.36% 6,511 62.01% 10,805 0.63% 110 17,426
Gilchrist 86.50% 6,806 12.93% 1,017 0.57% 45 7,868
Glades 80.73% 3,091 18.83% 721 0.44% 17 3,829
Gulf 80.16% 5,150 19.41% 1,247 0.44% 28 6,425
Hamilton 73.26% 3,145 26.09% 1,120 0.65% 28 4,293
Hardee 82.33% 4,558 17.14% 949 0.52% 29 5,536
Hendry 74.25% 6,134 24.84% 2,052 0.91% 75 8,261
Hernando 69.95% 56,228 29.47% 23,689 0.58% 468 80,385
Highlands 74.12% 29,518 25.09% 9,994 0.79% 313 39,825
Hillsborough 54.17% 261,936 44.95% 217,349 0.87% 4,229 483,514
Holmes 91.62% 6,214 7.86% 533 0.52% 35 6,782
Indian River 67.53% 52,269 31.97% 24,744 0.50% 387 77,400
Jackson 76.03% 12,412 23.49% 3,835 0.48% 79 16,326
Jefferson 60.47% 4,310 38.95% 2,776 0.58% 41 7,127
Lafayette 89.68% 2,617 10.08% 294 0.24% 7 2,918
Lake 66.54% 106,578 32.83% 52,579 0.63% 1,003 160,160
Lee 68.79% 189,335 30.79% 84,739 0.42% 1,165 275,239
Leon 41.82% 49,244 57.35% 67,535 0.83% 972 117,751
Levy 78.42% 14,049 20.98% 3,758 0.60% 107 17,914
Liberty 85.36% 2,345 14.18% 371 0.46% 12 2,617
Madison 66.77% 4,661 32.85% 2,293 0.39% 27 6,981
Manatee 64.70% 111,109 34.82% 59,801 0.48% 820 171,730
Marion 69.23% 108,027 30.20% 47,129 0.57% 894 156,050
Martin 69.01% 53,595 30.58% 23,748 0.42% 324 77,667
Miami-Dade 55.28% 393,532 43.97% 312,972 0.75% 5,347 711,851
Monroe 60.23% 20,479 39.15% 13,314 0.62% 211 34,004
Nassau 76.52% 36,551 22.97% 10,973 0.50% 240 47,764
Okaloosa 76.18% 61,715 22.92% 18,569 0.89% 724 81,008
Okeechobee 80.34% 8,746 19.10% 2,079 0.56% 61 10,886
Orange 46.08% 187,653 53.10% 216,221 0.82% 3,356 407,230
Osceola 52.84% 54,330 46.09% 47,387 1.08% 1,108 102,825
Palm Beach 51.21% 278,454 48.30% 262,655 0.49% 2,679 543,788
Pasco 65.82% 148,083 33.49% 75,342 0.69% 1,555 224,980
Pinellas 54.61% 231,284 44.76% 189,563 0.63% 2,647 423,494
Polk 64.45% 148,254 34.85% 80,172 0.69% 1,591 230,017
Putnam 76.02% 20,217 23.30% 6,196 0.68% 180 26,593
Santa Rosa 79.38% 60,091 19.94% 15,096 0.68% 511 75,698
Sarasota 60.92% 133,354 38.65% 84,614 0.42% 929 218,897
Seminole 55.78% 102,191 43.48% 79,664 0.73% 1,346 183,201
St. Johns 69.87% 101,066 29.64% 42,873 0.49% 715 144,654
St. Lucie 59.31% 72,354 40.17% 49,009 0.52% 630 121,993
Sumter 73.21% 65,496 26.51% 23,718 0.28% 250 89,464
Suwannee 83.39% 13,649 16.19% 2,650 0.42% 68 16,367
Taylor 82.76% 6,308 16.74% 1,276 0.50% 38 7,622
Union 87.65% 3,995 11.94% 544 0.42% 19 4,558
Volusia 63.99% 144,768 35.34% 79,965 0.67% 1,513 226,246
Wakulla 73.25% 11,033 26.02% 3,920 0.73% 110 15,063
Walton 82.08% 28,647 17.51% 6,112 0.41% 142 34,901
Washington 85.32% 7,786 14.08% 1,285 0.60% 55 9,126

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

edit

DeSantis won 22 of 28 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[264]

District DeSantis Crist Representative
1st 73% 26% Matt Gaetz
2nd 61% 38% Neal Dunn
3rd 64% 35% Kat Cammack
4th 60% 39% Aaron Bean
5th 65% 34% John Rutherford
6th 68% 31% Michael Waltz
7th 60% 39% Stephanie Murphy (117th Congress)
Cory Mills (118th Congress)
8th 65% 35% Bill Posey
9th 50% 49% Darren Soto
10th 41% 58% Val Demings (117th Congress)
Maxwell Frost (118th Congress)
11th 63% 37% Daniel Webster
12th 69% 30% Gus Bilirakis
13th 58% 41% Anna Paulina Luna
14th 47% 52% Kathy Castor
15th 59% 40% Laurel Lee
16th 61% 38% Vern Buchanan
17th 64% 35% Greg Steube
18th 69% 30% Scott Franklin
19th 69% 30% Byron Donalds
20th 30% 69% Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
21st 62% 37% Brian Mast
22nd 48% 51% Lois Frankel
23rd 50% 49% Jared Moskowitz
24th 31% 68% Frederica Wilson
25th 47% 52% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
26th 70% 29% Mario Díaz-Balart
27th 58% 41% María Elvira Salazar
28th 64% 36% Carlos A. Giménez

Voter demographics

edit
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Crist DeSantis % of
voters
Gender
Men 35 64 49
Women 46 53 51
Age
18–24 years old 54 44 7
25–29 years old 56 41 4
30–39 years old 52 47 13
40–49 years old 38 60 12
50–64 years old 36 63 32
65 and older 36 64 32
Race
White 34 65 64
Black 86 13 11
Latino 40 58 21
Race by gender
White men 27 72 32
White women 40 58 32
Black men 81 19 5
Black women 91 9 6
Latino men 41 57 10
Latina women 39 60 11
Education
High school or less 33 67 15
Some college education 41 58 25
Associate degree 40 59 19
Bachelor's degree 43 56 24
Advanced degree 44 55 17
Party ID
Democrats 95 5 28
Republicans 2 97 42
Independents 45 53 30
Ideology
Liberals 90 10 20
Moderates 53 45 39
Conservatives 6 94 42
Marital status
Married 38 62 59
Unmarried 50 50 41
Gender by marital status
Married men 32 68 30
Married women 44 55 29
Unmarried men 49 51 18
Unmarried women 50 49 23
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 41 59 11
No 43 57 89
Most important issue facing the country
Crime 35 63 10
Inflation 26 74 39
Gun policy 62 36 10
Immigration 12 88 10
Abortion 80 19 24
Area type
Urban 43 56 46
Suburban 40 58 44
Rural 30 70 10
Source: CNN[265]

Analysis

edit

According to exit polls, DeSantis won 65% of White voters, 13% of Black voters, and 58% of Latinos; of the latter group, DeSantis won 69% of Cubans and 56% of Puerto Ricans.[266] DeSantis' large margin of victory was in part due to him flipping Democratic stronghold Miami-Dade County for the first time since 2002, and Palm Beach County for the first time since 1986, as well as winning Hillsborough, Osceola, Pinellas, and St. Lucie counties for the first time since 2006; this was also the first gubernatorial election since 2006 in which a candidate received over 50% of the vote. His near 20% margin of victory was the largest since 1982 and the largest for a Republican in state history. It was also the first time the governorship was won by double digits since 2002, and the first time it was won by over one million votes.

Significantly, Crist's 40% performance was the worst for a Democratic nominee for governor of Florida since 1916. Republicans won the other statewide races by double digits; this is the first time since the end of Reconstruction that Democrats do not hold at least one of the statewide positions. DeSantis also made large gains among Hispanic voters, becoming the first Republican in decades to win a majority of those voters.[266][267] He also had a major fundraising advantage over Crist, setting an all-time record for a gubernatorial candidate.[268]

See also

edit

Notes

edit
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Daniel with 4%; Willis with 1%
  4. ^ Freeman with 4%; "Someone Else" with 3%; Lionheart with 1%
  5. ^ 17% for Val Demings
  6. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  8. ^ Gimenez (I) with 1%; Roos (L) with 1%
  9. ^ Roos (L) with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  11. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  13. ^ Gimenez (I) with 1%; Roos (L) with <1%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  15. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  17. ^ Roos (L) with 1%; Gimenez (I) with 3%; "Refused" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Crist's campaign
  2. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Fried's campaign
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Floridians For Economic Advancement
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Taddeo's campaign committee
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by WOFL-TV
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce
  7. ^ Poll conducted for the Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  8. ^ Poll conducted for Tripp Scott, a law firm associated with the Florida Republican Party.
  9. ^ Poll conducted for Local Progress Impact Lab
  10. ^ a b c d e This poll was sponsored by Progress Florida and Florida Watch
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes DeSantis
  12. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  13. ^ This poll was conducted for an undisclosed Republican client
  14. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Americas PAC
  15. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
  16. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund

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Official campaign websites

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